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 Post subject: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:51 pm 
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The Pirates have now lost 56 games this season where they either were shut out, scored 1 run, scored 2 runs, scored three runs, or scored 4 runs...they have lost 56 games involving those run production or lack of run production totals.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:20 pm 
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4 runs is pretty solid. Good enough to win most nights with good pitching. 3 and under is not typically adequate.


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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:46 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
The Pirates have now lost 56 games this season where they either were shut out, scored 1 run, scored 2 runs, scored three runs, or scored 4 runs...they have lost 56 games involving those run production or lack of run production totals.

Bassoon, NL teams average right around 4 runs per game. Every team in the NL has a lousy record when scoring 4 runs or less. Just keeping it to the contenders, see the list of losses in games where a team scored four or less runs. All stats are taken from games going into today.

Braves - 59
Giants - 57
Pirates - 55
Brewers - 54
Nationals - 54
Dodgers - 54
Cards - 53

So the average contender in the NL has lost 55.1 games in which they have scored 4 or less. The Pirates are almost exactly the average contender. There is nothing at all unusual about their performance.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 9:51 pm 
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Sisy....in 50 of the games so far this season, the Pirates have scored 3 runs or less...many times 2 runs, 1 run, and a couple of shutouts.

Is that normal??? :?

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:17 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
Sisy....in 50 of the games so far this season, the Pirates have scored 3 runs or less...many times 2 runs, 1 run, and a couple of shutouts.

Is that normal??? :?

Before I even look up the numbers, I'd be willing to say they're going to be similar.

Braves - 75
Pirates - 67
Dodgers - 66
Giants - 64
Nationals - 63
Cardinals - 61
Brewers - 57

Average - 64.

Just a bit above average.

The Pirates are just a typical contender on offense.

You want to see where the real problem is? Here's a list of how many times the contenders have held their opponents to three runs or less:

Nationals - 78
Braves - 76
Dodgers - 76
Cardinals - 75
Giants - 72
Brewers - 69
Pirates - 67

It's the pitching and defense that's killing them.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:18 pm 
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Thanks, Sisy.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:05 pm 
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Thanks for the enlightenment Sisy. I knew the defense and pitching hasn't been great. Ironically, those are the two areas that were "suppose" to be strengths of this ball club...at least that's what I thought was to be the case...

This Pirate team is very frustrating! :?

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:57 am 
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bassoondirector wrote:
Thanks for the enlightenment Sisy. I knew the defense and pitching hasn't been great. Ironically, those are the two areas that were "suppose" to be strengths of this ball club...at least that's what I thought was to be the case...

This Pirate team is very frustrating! :?

Well, we had a right to expect good pitching and defense. It's virtually the same defense as last year, and today's modern fielding metrics claimed that it was a pretty good defense last year. Now they claim that the defense sucks. I think that says a lot more about fielding metrics than it does about either defense, though. I don't think that they were quite as good as rated last year, and that they're a little better than the ratings this year, but there's not much doubt in my mind that the D was better last year. One thing is for sure, they're giving up a boatload of unearned runs. Last year they gave up 44 unearned runs all season; this year they've already given up 60.

As to the pitching, last years fine bullpen came back virtually intact, and they spit the bit. But that's pretty much the nature of bullpens, the same guys can put up much different numbers from year to year. The bullpen's ERA is more than half a run higher. What everybody was worried about was replacing Burnett in the rotation, but they did a pretty good job of that. The starters ERA is only up a bit over a quarter of a run.

As for the offense, they averaged 3.91 runs per game last year. This year it's 4.19, so their scoring is up 3.1%. In the league as a whole, scoring is down about 0.5%.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:06 am 
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In general I agree, although I think the defense is more or less identical to last year. Last year they had a great first half defensively but saw it regress down to a more normal rate in the 2nd half (the bullpen also regressed and, consequently, they played around .500 ball after the All-Star break).

I think if you consider the 1st half of last year a defensive outlier, where they were at the top by a relatively significant margin in Defensive Efficiency, then the defense is more or less the same.

Last I saw from Mark Simon, they're still Top 5 in turning ground balls put into play into outs, which is what's important when evaluating defense as a skill and not something that's subject to the randomness/luck that's inherent in baseball more so than other sports. OF hit/out conversions are tougher to judge since there's a large difference in OF size from ballpark to ballpark and the spray charts are less predictive.

I definitely don't think it's a defense that's as good as last year's as a whole, but I also don't think that last year's defense was as good as it was on paper.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:05 am 
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This defense, on the inf, is not close to last year. First, you give up Barmes for Mercer. Big drop. Then you have Pedro and his "Steve Sax" disease.

So, no, not the same.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:47 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
This defense, on the inf, is not close to last year. First, you give up Barmes for Mercer. Big drop. Then you have Pedro and his "Steve Sax" disease.

So, no, not the same.

ZM

Barmes played 804 innings at short last year. Mercer played 584 innings at short. They didn't exchange Barmes for Mercer, they exchanged a combination of 58% Barmes and 42% Mercer for one that is 14% Barmes and 86% Mercer, so the change is nowhere near as drastic as you are leading us to believe. In addition, it's clear that Mercer has made a big improvement defensively, whether you measure it by the eye test or by modern defensive metrics, some of which rate him as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.

Pedro is a different matter. No question he fell off the face of the earth in the field. But he's been replaced by Harrison, and Harrison's defense has been outstanding.

But this all originally came up in the context of what we could expect coming into the season, and the point is that we had no reason for one of the better defensive teams in baseball would turn into one of the worst while putting virtually the same players on the field.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:25 pm 
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Pedro has been the biggest dissapointment this year. Pirates invested a lot in him, and he dawged it. Now they are stuck. Could hurt this team for years to come unless he somehow finds his rhythm again.


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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:27 pm 
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He did not dog it. Jeez….did he play poorly this year ?….yeah….Dog it?… :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:


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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:53 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
He did not dog it. Jeez….did he play poorly this year ?….yeah….Dog it?… :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

Thank you.

Geeze CS, we're all disappointed, and we're all disappointed in Pedro, but let's not go casting aspersions, esp ones that seem so ill-founded.


Last edited by val on Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 56 losses
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:19 am 
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Clevelandsux wrote:
Pedro has been the biggest dissapointment this year. Pirates invested a lot in him, and he dawged it. Now they are stuck. Could hurt this team for years to come unless he somehow finds his rhythm again.


Dogged it?
I understand your dislike for him, but every report is he busts his butt working out.
He was getting hot once he was back in the lineup regularly and figured out 1st base, then he got hurt.

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