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 Post subject: Re: The Offense Is Getting Shut Down...AGAIN!
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:09 pm 
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I envy and hate them all at the same time.

As far as runs against, runs scored and the like here's how I look at it. Every thing leads up to a key moment and that leads to a clutch moment. We just got beat by Chris Heisey and Kolten Wong. It happens.


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 Post subject: Re: The Offense Is Getting Shut Down...AGAIN!
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:20 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
buccosfan77 wrote:
They've lost a couple tough luck games and hopefully they'll pull through it.

I fucking hate the cardinals.


Yesterday's game was particularly painful.
John Jay's play in CF on Marte's shot prevented the Bucs from scoring at least 4, instead of 2.
Garritt Cole gives up a single to Lance Lynn. He then issues a one-out walk ahead of Holliday and it leads to a 2 run inning for the Cardinals.
The Cards try to gift wrap one of those runs back with a brain dead effort by Adams at first base but JayHay gets nailed at the plate. SABRists everywhere were tweeting TOOTBLAN but I thought it was a good aggressive play at the time. Hats off to Kozma.
After Cutch's monster shot puts the Bucs up by 2 in the 7th, Cole can't get through the bottom of the Cardinals' order to get the game to Melancon and Watson.
Then, after putting 2 on with no outs, the Bucs chose not to play "small ball" and end up stranding runners. With Snider having a gimpy hamstring, he was a prime DP candidate. I would have been awfully tempted to send up Barmes or Tabata with the instruction to lay one down and hope that JayHay drives in at least one.
Tough loss to swallow but, starting with Lynn's hit leading to 2 runs, it just had one of those "feels" to it. Caught myself thinking otherwise when Cutch went deep but . . . damn.

Try as I might, I just can't hate the Cardinals. Its an incredible baseball town and they seem to have some type of intangible that carries them to victory. I'm envious of that.

Hahahahahahaha....surely you jest. As has been told by the smarter members of this board, they don't exist. Please keep up... ;)


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 Post subject: Re: The Offense Is Getting Shut Down...AGAIN!
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:04 pm 
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It all comes down to whether you believe situations affect player performance.

If you think it does, then teams that win close games have intangibles, come through in the clutch, can manufacture runs, etc. Therefore, you'll believe that a team can routinely beat its Pythagorean prediction, as the Cards are doing this year.

If you don't, then close games involve a lot of luck. In some years, you'll get the breaks, and in others you won't.

From stats-based articles I've read in the past, I'm mostly convinced that the majority of results are NOT affected by situations (there are some exceptions, but I believe these are generally not significant). And so deviations from the expected are random. And so the Cards are simply an average team that's gotten some breaks.

You could take any team in the league, rearrange their runs scored vs. runs allowed, and come up with a dramatically different win-loss record. I believe these are more or less random, but you may not.

I'm not trying to convince you, and you'll likely have little luck convincing me. :)


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 Post subject: Re: The Offense Is Getting Shut Down...AGAIN!
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:22 pm 
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Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
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No. 9 wrote:
Try as I might, I just can't hate the Cardinals. Its an incredible baseball town and they seem to have some type of intangible that carries them to victory. I'm envious of that.

I agree. Tony Larussa's retirement took all of the fun out of hating the Cards. It's a great baseball town with knowledgeable fans.

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