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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:21 am 
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If it's all about RBIs than why are people clamoring to trade Alvarez?

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:32 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
No, I continue to be right about it. Maybe it does look that way to you, but as you say, there is no evidence you can give to support your argument.

I don't know about you, but I've been hearing, "A walk is as good as a hit" since I was in Little League. It happens to be true in most situations. That's why people say it. If you come up with an instance of Davis saying that about getting a walk with a man on third and less than two outs in the ninth inning of a tie game, I'll agree with you. But he's not talking about any specific situation, he's clearly speaking generally.


Never has a cliche been more over used and and more wrong. And you'll never hear a good coach utter that. That is the kind of stuff Little League dads with no real baseball chops say. A walk is as good as a single, and only if the bases are empty. However, I do agree with you that OBP is the most important offensive stat. But I don't want middle of the order hitters forgoing opportunities to drive the ball to take walks. Not that I think Ike does that. I think Ike is as painfully aware of the holes in his swing as we are.

It's a cliche because it's true in almost every situation. You're batting with nobody on base a majority of the time.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:44 pm 
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Ike has Joey Votto disease. Only without the swing to go with it.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:43 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
No, I continue to be right about it. Maybe it does look that way to you, but as you say, there is no evidence you can give to support your argument.

I don't know about you, but I've been hearing, "A walk is as good as a hit" since I was in Little League. It happens to be true in most situations. That's why people say it. If you come up with an instance of Davis saying that about getting a walk with a man on third and less than two outs in the ninth inning of a tie game, I'll agree with you. But he's not talking about any specific situation, he's clearly speaking generally.


Never has a cliche been more over used and and more wrong. And you'll never hear a good coach utter that. That is the kind of stuff Little League dads with no real baseball chops say. A walk is as good as a single, and only if the bases are empty. However, I do agree with you that OBP is the most important offensive stat. But I don't want middle of the order hitters forgoing opportunities to drive the ball to take walks. Not that I think Ike does that. I think Ike is as painfully aware of the holes in his swing as we are.

It's a cliche because it's true in almost every situation. You're batting with nobody on base a majority of the time.


It is true in no situations. Singles make up 68% of hits. So 32% of all hits are most definitely better than a walk even with the bases empty. Not to mention even some singles potentially result in an extra bases to due misplays/errors.

But let's break it down for all situations.

Sabermeticians have determined the following run values:

walk = 0.32 runs
single = 0.47 runs
double= 0.77 runs
triple = 1.09 runs
home run = 1.39 runs

Basically this all so evidence that is needed to prove that a "walk is as good as a hit" might be the dumbest and most inaccurate cliche in all of sports.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:46 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
If it's all about RBIs than why are people clamoring to trade Alvarez?


Because all year he's been driving in runs at a pace that would net him about 75, which is inadequate for a middle of the order bat. Yeah, I know- he's been batting 7th most of the year, but guess why? Because he was leaving runners on base.

The whole "avoiding outs" argument is flawed. The point is, you can't. Whether you win or lose, you make 27 (or 24 if you win at home w/o walking off). You just have to make the most of the opportunities between the outs.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:53 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I don't know about you, but I've been hearing, "A walk is as good as a hit" since I was in Little League. It happens to be true in most situations. That's why people say it. If you come up with an instance of Davis saying that about getting a walk with a man on third and less than two outs in the ninth inning of a tie game, I'll agree with you. But he's not talking about any specific situation, he's clearly speaking generally.


At some point during a game, someone in the line-up needs to put the ball in play to score runs. Runs are rarely scored by way of a bases loaded walk.

I don't think anyone craving more offense from Ike Davis, Gregory Polanco, Gaby Sanchez, etc. is - [i]as has been portrayed[/i] - advocating having these guys flail away at anything thrown towards the plate. I think those that crave more offense from these players would rather see them be less selective in the pitches that they are taking.

Hitting is tough. I'm a big advocate of having a strategy when you get into the batter's box. If a hitter is looking for a fastball, I don't want him swinging late on a curve ball and making poor contact. I'd rather have him take the curve ball. That being written, if there is a fastball that is on the outer half of the plate but it is a "borderline" pitch, I'm not sure that I'm a fan of Davis letting it pass simply because he "hopes" that it will be called a ball. I'd rather have him swing away and try to hit a pitch that he is looking for - particularly if there is an opportunity to drive in runs.

Don't get me wrong . . . putting runners on base is a good thing. But, simply getting guys on base isn't enough. There has to be guys in the order to drive them in.

If a walk was worth .025 "real" runs, its a different debate. You can attempt to quantify the RE of a walk all you want but . . . as I've tried to argue many times . . . RE has zero application in real game settings and should not be used for strategic decisions. Unless and until MLB adopts a scoring system that assigns value to particular events, balls in play are going to be needed to push runs across the plate.

An Ike Davis walk doesn't mean much if Lance Nix and the pitcher are up next. A Gaby Sanchez walk doesn't mean much if Pedro Alvarez is coming up next.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:02 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
An Ike Davis walk doesn't mean much if Lance Nix and the pitcher are up next. A Gaby Sanchez walk doesn't mean much if Pedro Alvarez is coming up next.


That's the problem, really.

Well said.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:27 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
It is true in no situations. Singles make up 68% of hits. So 32% of all hits are most definitely better than a walk even with the bases empty. Not to mention even some singles potentially result in an extra bases to due misplays/errors.

But let's break it down for all situations.

Sabermeticians have determined the following run values:

walk = 0.32 runs
single = 0.47 runs
double= 0.77 runs
triple = 1.09 runs
home run = 1.39 runs

Basically this all so evidence that is needed to prove that a "walk is as good as a hit" might be the dumbest and most inaccurate cliche in all of sports.

You're only missing one thing. It's not a choice between a walk and a hit. It's a choice between a walk and a 25% chance of getting a hit. The other 75% of the time, it's an out.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:29 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I don't know about you, but I've been hearing, "A walk is as good as a hit" since I was in Little League. It happens to be true in most situations. That's why people say it. If you come up with an instance of Davis saying that about getting a walk with a man on third and less than two outs in the ninth inning of a tie game, I'll agree with you. But he's not talking about any specific situation, he's clearly speaking generally.


At some point during a game, someone in the line-up needs to put the ball in play to score runs. Runs are rarely scored by way of a bases loaded walk.

I don't think anyone craving more offense from Ike Davis, Gregory Polanco, Gaby Sanchez, etc. is - [i]as has been portrayed[/i] - advocating having these guys flail away at anything thrown towards the plate. I think those that crave more offense from these players would rather see them be less selective in the pitches that they are taking.

Hitting is tough. I'm a big advocate of having a strategy when you get into the batter's box. If a hitter is looking for a fastball, I don't want him swinging late on a curve ball and making poor contact. I'd rather have him take the curve ball. That being written, if there is a fastball that is on the outer half of the plate but it is a "borderline" pitch, I'm not sure that I'm a fan of Davis letting it pass simply because he "hopes" that it will be called a ball. I'd rather have him swing away and try to hit a pitch that he is looking for - particularly if there is an opportunity to drive in runs.

Don't get me wrong . . . putting runners on base is a good thing. But, simply getting guys on base isn't enough. There has to be guys in the order to drive them in.

If a walk was worth .025 "real" runs, its a different debate. You can attempt to quantify the RE of a walk all you want but . . . as I've tried to argue many times . . . RE has zero application in real game settings and should not be used for strategic decisions. Unless and until MLB adopts a scoring system that assigns value to particular events, balls in play are going to be needed to push runs across the plate.

An Ike Davis walk doesn't mean much if Lance Nix and the pitcher are up next. A Gaby Sanchez walk doesn't mean much if Pedro Alvarez is coming up next.

What does an Ike Davis popup to the third baseman mean?

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:46 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
It is true in no situations. Singles make up 68% of hits. So 32% of all hits are most definitely better than a walk even with the bases empty. Not to mention even some singles potentially result in an extra bases to due misplays/errors.

But let's break it down for all situations.

Sabermeticians have determined the following run values:

walk = 0.32 runs
single = 0.47 runs
double= 0.77 runs
triple = 1.09 runs
home run = 1.39 runs

Basically this all so evidence that is needed to prove that a "walk is as good as a hit" might be the dumbest and most inaccurate cliche in all of sports.

You're only missing one thing. It's not a choice between a walk and a hit. It's a choice between a walk and a 25% chance of getting a hit. The other 75% of the time, it's an out.


What kind of logic is that? The odds of drawing a walk are longer than earning a hit. Unless you are Barry Bonds you aren't getting anywhere near a 25% walk rate.

Why don't you just stop cornering yourself into a dumb argument. What helps a team more, a walk or a hit? I think it is fairly obvious.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:48 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
What kind of logic is that? The odds of drawing a walk are longer than earning a hit. Unless you are Barry Bonds you aren't getting anywhere near a 25% walk rate.

Why don't you just stop cornering yourself into a dumb argument. What helps a team more, a walk or a hit? I think it is fairly obvious.

Much better logic than yours, which makes every at bat that doesn't end in a walk into a hit.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:04 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
What kind of logic is that? The odds of drawing a walk are longer than earning a hit. Unless you are Barry Bonds you aren't getting anywhere near a 25% walk rate.

Why don't you just stop cornering yourself into a dumb argument. What helps a team more, a walk or a hit? I think it is fairly obvious.

Much better logic than yours, which makes every at bat that doesn't end in a walk into a hit.


Never did I say that. You are imagining stuff.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:04 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
What does an Ike Davis popup to the third baseman mean?


Easy. It's an out.

Questions like that are easy when you know the outcome after a pitch is thrown.

The more appropriate question to ask is what is Ike Davis giving up by taking a pitch that is one inch off the inner half of the plate versus taking a hack at a ball that's in the upper portion of the strike zone.

I'll give you a hint . . . Davis actually hits balls better, much better, that are (by definition) balls just off the inner part of the plate than that are (by definition) strikes on the upper part of the zone.

So, the assumption that hitters thrive on pitches in the defined strike zone and flail at anything else doesn't necessarily come out in the wash.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:01 pm 
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In general, I don't see much reason to pass up a walk in favor of a hit. Never understood getting a pat on the butt from my HS coach because I rolled over a ball to 2B but it was some sort of accomplishment because a guy was standing on 3rd when it happened.

Even using the numbers above and allowing for a really good hitter being at the plate (say he only makes an out 70% of the time or so and all of his non-singles are HR) you'd get a total expected value of:

70% * 0 value = 0
68%*30%*0.47 value = .09588
32%*30%*1.39 value = .13344

For a total of .22932 value.

Wonder if "a walk is as good as the 30% chance of your swing turning into a hit" is too wordy for Little League coaches, because the general concept isn't far off.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:25 pm 
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I don't see you factoring in the "clutch" or "choke" factors though.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:35 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
In general, I don't see much reason to pass up a walk in favor of a hit. Never understood getting a pat on the butt from my HS coach because I rolled over a ball to 2B but it was some sort of accomplishment because a guy was standing on 3rd when it happened.

Even using the numbers above and allowing for a really good hitter being at the plate (say he only makes an out 70% of the time or so and all of his non-singles are HR) you'd get a total expected value of:

70% * 0 value = 0
68%*30%*0.47 value = .09588
32%*30%*1.39 value = .13344

For a total of .22932 value.

Wonder if "a walk is as good as the 30% chance of your swing turning into a hit" is too wordy for Little League coaches, because the general concept isn't far off.


Compare that to :

15% X .32 = .048 value of standing at the plate to get a walk. That is assuming you have well above average walk rate of 15%.

.22932 > .048

Tell me about this fantasy land where you can say I'm going to take a walk and 4 out of the next 7 pitches will be balls. You two keep harping on 70% of the time a hitter is going to make an out while neglecting that a walk isn't a guaranteed outcome. Walks are something that can be earned in the process of hitting. The key word is HITTING.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:42 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I don't see you factoring in the "clutch" or "choke" factors though.

ZM


I can't factor in things that don't exist.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:46 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
In general, I don't see much reason to pass up a walk in favor of a hit. Never understood getting a pat on the butt from my HS coach because I rolled over a ball to 2B but it was some sort of accomplishment because a guy was standing on 3rd when it happened.

Even using the numbers above and allowing for a really good hitter being at the plate (say he only makes an out 70% of the time or so and all of his non-singles are HR) you'd get a total expected value of:

70% * 0 value = 0
68%*30%*0.47 value = .09588
32%*30%*1.39 value = .13344

For a total of .22932 value.

Wonder if "a walk is as good as the 30% chance of your swing turning into a hit" is too wordy for Little League coaches, because the general concept isn't far off.


Compare that to :

15% X .32 = .048 value of standing at the plate to get a walk. That is assuming you have well above average walk rate of 15%.

.22932 > .048

Tell me about this fantasy land where you can say I'm going to take a walk and 4 out of the next 7 pitches will be balls. You two keep harping on 70% of the time a hitter is going to make an out while neglecting that a walk isn't a guaranteed outcome. Walks are something that can be earned in the process of hitting. The key word is HITTING.


I'm making my point within the context of what any Little League coach means....take a walk if a guy presents the opportunity because that's just as helpful as hacking away. No reason to force the issue of taking the bat off your shoulder solely because you think a hit is how you'll contribute. Take what the pitcher gives you. Nothing in any of these guys' numbers suggests they're being overly selective up there and refusing to swing until they have 2 strikes on them in the hopes of drawing a walk.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 8:54 pm 
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It is a dumb cliche and it should never be uttered. period. You want a kid to be selective you say make it be your pitch.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:22 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
What does an Ike Davis popup to the third baseman mean?


Easy. It's an out.

Questions like that are easy when you know the outcome after a pitch is thrown.

The more appropriate question to ask is what is Ike Davis giving up by taking a pitch that is one inch off the inner half of the plate versus taking a hack at a ball that's in the upper portion of the strike zone.

I'll give you a hint . . . Davis actually hits balls better, much better, that are (by definition) balls just off the inner part of the plate than that are (by definition) strikes on the upper part of the zone.

So, the assumption that hitters thrive on pitches in the defined strike zone and flail at anything else doesn't necessarily come out in the wash.

No. 9, what happens when it's there's a runner on second, one out, and the moon is full?

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