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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:25 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
Compare that to :

15% X .32 = .048 value of standing at the plate to get a walk. That is assuming you have well above average walk rate of 15%.

.22932 > .048

Tell me about this fantasy land where you can say I'm going to take a walk and 4 out of the next 7 pitches will be balls. You two keep harping on 70% of the time a hitter is going to make an out while neglecting that a walk isn't a guaranteed outcome. Walks are something that can be earned in the process of hitting. The key word is HITTING.

You're entire argument hinges on the batter doing everything within his power to draw a walk. That isn't what's happening.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:27 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
What kind of logic is that? The odds of drawing a walk are longer than earning a hit. Unless you are Barry Bonds you aren't getting anywhere near a 25% walk rate.

Why don't you just stop cornering yourself into a dumb argument. What helps a team more, a walk or a hit? I think it is fairly obvious.

Much better logic than yours, which makes every at bat that doesn't end in a walk into a hit.


Never did I say that. You are imagining stuff.

Really? Where did you list the negative value of an out?

Nowhere. All you talk about is the value of a hit vs. the value of a walk.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:29 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
It is a dumb cliche and it should never be uttered. period. You want a kid to be selective you say make it be your pitch.

No where into semantics. Brilliant.

I was a little kid the first time I heard that, and I understood exactly what people were talking about.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:47 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
It is a dumb cliche and it should never be uttered. period. You want a kid to be selective you say make it be your pitch.


I would say that's kind of picking nits and who knows how a kid will respond to certain types of phrasing. I'd imagine most kids are intelligent enough to get the point, and if it's an accurate phrase why stop saying it?

It's not like a kid can control whether or not his batted ball is an out or a hit, you aren't exactly taking the bat out of his hands by telling him he doesn't have to cut away and get his money's worth.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:58 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Much better logic than yours, which makes every at bat that doesn't end in a walk into a hit.


Never did I say that. You are imagining stuff.

Really? Where did you list the negative value of an out?

Nowhere. All you talk about is the value of a hit vs. the value of a walk.


Because that is what is being compared. The term is a "walk is as good as a hit". You fail to realize that not swinging at a strike contributes to outs too. You ever look at the discrepancy of batting average in hitters counts as opposed to pitchers counts?


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:22 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
It is a dumb cliche and it should never be uttered. period. You want a kid to be selective you say make it be your pitch.


I would say that's kind of picking nits and who knows how a kid will respond to certain types of phrasing. I'd imagine most kids are intelligent enough to get the point, and if it's an accurate phrase why stop saying it?

It's not like a kid can control whether or not his batted ball is an out or a hit, you aren't exactly taking the bat out of his hands by telling him he doesn't have to cut away and get his money's worth.


A) It is not accurate
B) It emphasizes passive hitting


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:16 am 
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mjdouble wrote:
Because that is what is being compared. The term is a "walk is as good as a hit". You fail to realize that not swinging at a strike contributes to outs too. You ever look at the discrepancy of batting average in hitters counts as opposed to pitchers counts?

You fail to realize that when you swing at a pitch that's in a zone you can't handle, you are vastly increasing your probability of making an out.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:17 am 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
It is a dumb cliche and it should never be uttered. period. You want a kid to be selective you say make it be your pitch.


I would say that's kind of picking nits and who knows how a kid will respond to certain types of phrasing. I'd imagine most kids are intelligent enough to get the point, and if it's an accurate phrase why stop saying it?

It's not like a kid can control whether or not his batted ball is an out or a hit, you aren't exactly taking the bat out of his hands by telling him he doesn't have to cut away and get his money's worth.


A) It is not accurate
B) It emphasizes passive hitting

I'll take passive hitters like Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Babe Ruth any time. You can have all the Damaso Garcia's and Tony Fernandez's you want.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:11 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
I don't see you factoring in the "clutch" or "choke" factors though.

ZM


I can't factor in things that don't Understand .


Fixed

For reference.. http://www.amazon.com/Choke-Secrets-Brain-Reveal-Getting/dp/1416596186

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:13 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
I'll take passive hitters like Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Babe Ruth any time. You can have all the Damaso Garcia's and Tony Fernandez's you want.


It is silly to equate disciplined hitting to having a preference for walking. Even more silly to call disciplined hitters as passive hitters.

As I said earlier walks are earned in the process of hitting. Bonds, Williams, Ruth are among the greatest hitters ever. Their process of hitting was unparalleled. Of course that led to a tons of walks. But none of those hitters preferred to walk. They often spoke of their frustrations with the frequency of walks that they were issued. Bonds once said when asked if he was happy with all the walks being issued to him, "you apply for a job to participate, not observe". Williams said he wanted to be know as the best hitter that ever lived. Never did he say he wanted to be known for drawing a lot of walks. None of these hitters would agree with you that a walk is as good as a hit. And none of the pitchers that faced them would feel that either. They were all too happy to give them free passes. These guys didn't walk because they wanted to walk. They walked because they were great hitters.


Last edited by mjdouble on Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:15 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
No. 9, what happens when it's there's a runner on second, one out, and the moon is full?


I'll take "Deflection" for $500, Alex.

Forgive me for not feeling better about the Pirates' chances for scoring a run when there's a runner on second base and Andrew McCutchen is walked ahead of Gaby Sanchez. I really don't care what RE tables tell me or what some statistical compilation shows to be the "value" of a walk.

There's a time to be selective and there's a time to swing at hittable pitches. At some point, the guys who populate the middle third of the order simply must drive in the guys at the top of the order who get on base. Passing on hittable pitches may add to that player's wRC+ totals but that doesn't necessarily translate to real runs posted on real scoreboards in real games.

Ike Davis, when he swings, is one of the best contact hitters on this team. Yet, he is - by far - the leader on this team if you measure the percentage of his strike outs where he is caught looking at strike 3. His strike out percentage is pretty decent. However, his caught looking percentage is atrocious. He is incredibly selective; maddeningly selective IMO.

Outs may be a limited commodity but, in today's run scoring environment where scoring 4 or more runs in 9 innings has earned the Pirates a .772 winning percentage, including a .617 winning percentage when they score 4 or 5 runs, runs are gold. Passing up the opportunity on a hittable pitch which likely pushes across a run because it isn't the "perfect" pitch - at least to me - is short-sighted. On average, scoring one run in an inning is 25% of the way to a .617 winning percentage. Winning at a .617 percentage translates to 100 wins.

You used the old adage "a walk is as good as a hit." I'll match you. When I look at a run scoring on a grounder to second base, I don't necessarily lament the fact that the hitter didn't take a walk or reach base safely. I often think of the adage "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Particularly when the 7,8 and 9 hitters are next in line.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:09 pm 
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I'll throw a stat out there...here are some comparative stats of two Davises, Ike and Crush.

Ike Davis- 352 PA, 54 BB .722 OPS 8 HR 39 RBI .237 AVG
Chris Davis- 443 PA 50 BB .688 OPS 21 HR 60 RBI .192 AVG

So Ike, in 81 fewer PAs, has 4 more walks. Buoyed by his high OBP, his OPS is quite a bit higher than Crush's. But you know which Davis I'd rather have manning first base for the Buccos this year? That's right- Crush. Without a doubt. Even with the ridiculous 150 Ks. I believe the team would be better off.

OPS is almost irrelevant as a measure of middle of the order guys. Very misleading.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:40 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
No. 9, what happens when it's there's a runner on second, one out, and the moon is full?


I'll take "Deflection" for $500, Alex.

Forgive me for not feeling better about the Pirates' chances for scoring a run when there's a runner on second base and Andrew McCutchen is walked ahead of Gaby Sanchez. I really don't care what RE tables tell me or what some statistical compilation shows to be the "value" of a walk.

There's a time to be selective and there's a time to swing at hittable pitches. At some point, the guys who populate the middle third of the order simply must drive in the guys at the top of the order who get on base. Passing on hittable pitches may add to that player's wRC+ totals but that doesn't necessarily translate to real runs posted on real scoreboards in real games.

Ike Davis, when he swings, is one of the best contact hitters on this team. Yet, he is - by far - the leader on this team if you measure the percentage of his strike outs where he is caught looking at strike 3. His strike out percentage is pretty decent. However, his caught looking percentage is atrocious. He is incredibly selective; maddeningly selective IMO.

Outs may be a limited commodity but, in today's run scoring environment where scoring 4 or more runs in 9 innings has earned the Pirates a .772 winning percentage, including a .617 winning percentage when they score 4 or 5 runs, runs are gold. Passing up the opportunity on a hittable pitch which likely pushes across a run because it isn't the "perfect" pitch - at least to me - is short-sighted. On average, scoring one run in an inning is 25% of the way to a .617 winning percentage. Winning at a .617 percentage translates to 100 wins.

You used the old adage "a walk is as good as a hit." I'll match you. When I look at a run scoring on a grounder to second base, I don't necessarily lament the fact that the hitter didn't take a walk or reach base safely. I often think of the adage "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Particularly when the 7,8 and 9 hitters are next in line.

It's not deflection, it's pointing out a tactic that you use quite often. Somebody makes a general statement, you point out a single specific instance where it doesn't apply.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:43 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
I'll throw a stat out there...here are some comparative stats of two Davises, Ike and Crush.

Ike Davis- 352 PA, 54 BB .722 OPS 8 HR 39 RBI .237 AVG
Chris Davis- 443 PA 50 BB .688 OPS 21 HR 60 RBI .192 AVG

So Ike, in 81 fewer PAs, has 4 more walks. Buoyed by his high OBP, his OPS is quite a bit higher than Crush's. But you know which Davis I'd rather have manning first base for the Buccos this year? That's right- Crush. Without a doubt. Even with the ridiculous 150 Ks. I believe the team would be better off.

OPS is almost irrelevant as a measure of middle of the order guys. Very misleading.

Neither of those Davises has any business being in the middle of anybody's order. One isn't very good, and the other totally sucks.

Chris Davis is the one who sucks, if you haven't guessed that.

Criticizing a guy for the way he hits based on his position in the batting order is silly. Hitters don't make out the lineup card. If you don't like seeing Ike Davis batting cleanup, your problem is with Clint Hurdle, not Ike Davis.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:36 pm 
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I think people tend to overvalue things that have an obvious, immediate impact(*). For example, singling in a runner from 2nd with two outs is more valued then drawing a walk in the same situation and then later coming around to score.

Furthermore, I think people tend to overstate the difference between player capabilities. So they assume that it's important for middle-of-the-order guys to drive in runs as opposed to walking. But the reality is that the guy after them is not as much worse as people like to think. And a worse batter with 2 men on generates more expected runs than a good batter with 1.

You can construct a scenario where a walk is bad, but in such a situation the opposing team isn't likely to really give you anything to hit, anyway, so your chance of getting a hit is likely low.

(*) I notice this in golf, too -- people tend to overvalue putting, because when the guys misses, it's obvious that he's lost a stroke. But they don't value approach shots, even though the difference between being 6' from the hole and 9' is about 0.16 of a stroke.


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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:53 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Its not deflection, it's pointing out a tactic that you use quite often. Somebody makes a general statement, you point out a single specific instance where it doesn't apply.


It's absolutely deflection.

Baseball remains a team sport which is highly dependent upon situations. While I may cite a singular example to illustrate a point, I could easily come up with more.

You are the one suggesting that swinging at anything outside the strike zone will result in a pop up out. Both Neil Walker and Josh Harrison disproved that hypothesis tonight. Harrison's dinger and Walker's double both came on pitches that are in their red zones but were outside the strike zone.

With an 80%+ contact rate, it is a travesty that 42% of Davis' Ks are backwards. That, to me, evidences passivity to a fault and is a trend in today's game environment that I don't believe to be necessarily productive.

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 Post subject: Re: First base thoughts
PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:48 am 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Its not deflection, it's pointing out a tactic that you use quite often. Somebody makes a general statement, you point out a single specific instance where it doesn't apply.


It's absolutely deflection.

Baseball remains a team sport which is highly dependent upon situations. While I may cite a singular example to illustrate a point, I could easily come up with more.

You are the one suggesting that swinging at anything outside the strike zone will result in a pop up out. Both Neil Walker and Josh Harrison disproved that hypothesis tonight. Harrison's dinger and Walker's double both came on pitches that are in their red zones but were outside the strike zone.

With an 80%+ contact rate, it is a travesty that 42% of Davis' Ks are backwards. That, to me, evidences passivity to a fault and is a trend in today's game environment that I don't believe to be necessarily productive.

No, No. 9, I'm not insisting that swinging at anything out of the strike zone will result of in a popup. I'm saying that swinging at pitches that are in zones you can't handle is counterproductive. Those pitches might be inside or outside of the strike zone. The goal is not to take pitches to draw a walk, it's to wait until you get a pitch you can handle before you pull the trigger. Walks are a byproduct of that approach. Another byproduct of that approach is that the opposing pitcher has to throw more pitches.

And, before you post a special case, yes, it's even more stupid to take strike three. But not as stupid as popping up strike one on a high, inside fastball when you're a hitter who gets eaten up by high, inside fastballs.

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