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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:39 pm 
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Feel sorry for Hughes as he induced the needed ground balls for force outs at home or DP.......that said, I have followed and rooted for the Pirates for 55+ years and do not remember a starting infielder who could not throw. I know Pedro is a mess right now, but he should not see the field unless NH cred is on the line and absolutely does not want his #1 draft pick to fail. This team plays much better at home, but things are trending downhill quickly. .......and less I do not blame Martin is he chooses to leave.


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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:44 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Look, the offense could have added insurance runs


And they didn't...

NSMaster56 wrote:
Don't let a recent example skew your opinion on the matter.


A recent example? This has been happening all season long.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:47 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Oh, absolutely, you need a guy who will go on a little run. Problem is, how do you know which guy is the one? It's a crapshoot.


As something of a 'speculator' (see: gambler), I would say the ones that seem like outliers.

Hughes strikes me as a fluke. His career ERA/FIP and/or peripherals do not match this season's. That is, we have three seasons worth of evidence and a current FIP in line with previous seasons (3.93 current vs. 4.01 career) that suggest that he is no 1.75 ERA guy. He's never been a high K guy.

Watson seems pretty legit. He's gotten better since breaking into the league. Problem is, he's (theoretically) peaking right about now. So he's a good 'trade high' candidate. But then who's the go-to lefty?

Shark is straight legit, but is in the middle of a 3/4 year run of effectiveness. That bubble will also burst (see: Grilli, Jason).

J-Wil is TBD.

If the Bucs are lucky one of Shark/Watson doesn't implode next year and J-Wil returns to respectability (ERA closer to his FIP, lowers WHIP).

The rest IDK.

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Last edited by NSMaster56 on Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:47 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates are fifth in the league in batting average with RISP. They are fourth in the league in OPS with RISP. They're third in the league in runs scored. Whatever problems they might have, scoring runs in not among them. It's pitching, pitching, pitching.


What did you say Sisy? Are you watching this game against the Nats?

So let me see if I get this right.

All that matters is the most recent series. The most recent series is always a perfect representation of what a team is like. No good team every has a bad stretch. No bad team ever has a good stretch. No good hitting team is every stymied by a good pitching staff. No bad pitcher ever has a good day against a good hitting team. All that matters is the most recent series. Nothing happened before that. Everything after the series will be exactly the same as what happened in the most recent series.

Ah well, not as bad as one poster here, who thinks that all that matters is yesterday.

The Pirates score runs, plenty of runs, and they do it in a park that favors pitching. Only two teams score more, one in the Milwaukee bandbox and one in the rare air of Denver, and this is despite the awful start they got off to at the plate. The hitting is carrying this team. If the pitching and defense were anywhere near as good as the hitting they would be the best team in the NL by far, and maybe the best team in baseball.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:49 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
That isn't even Major League Baseball. If I was Hughes I'd have walked over to both of them and punched them in the face. Pedro is a mess and Ike Davis is absolutely useless...even though someone will come here and dispute that!!!

I don't think Ike is useless, but he's a lousy fielder.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:49 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
A recent example? This has been happening all season long.


So have bullpen implosions and defensive miscues.

This one isn't on the offense.

They can't be blamed for not 'doing more'.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:50 pm 
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GP!!!

Stupid ineffective offense!

Worthless Gaby!

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:50 pm 
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Polanco doubles. POOF! All of a sudden the Pirates are a clutch team again.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:51 pm 
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Can we call this play a 'reverse Leyva'? :D

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:52 pm 
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4-3 Nats...Pirates have runners on 1B and 2B with NO OUTS to tie the game...my man Gaby is up...he fails...

YAY POLANCO!!!!! He hits a double to RF and TWO runs score...Bucs lead now 5-4...question is, can the Pirates hold this lead and win the game???

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:52 pm 
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saved by a rookie..........wish they didn't get to bat in the bottom of 9th.


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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:02 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
This offense leads the league in run scoring in August, same as it did in July. Injuries, mental blocks and all.


Right. I've been thinking/saying all year that at full strength this offense is (or has the potential to be) top-notch. As you note, the stats support it.

There have been times that the Bucs fail RISP, specifically with <2 outs, but that may be selective memory or a product of incomplete lineup (among other factors, such as 'bad timing'---it's hard for the bottom of this lineup to produce runs).

It's not fair to outright discredit the doubters when there are examples simply because of 'stats'. I'm willing to believe that the truth lies in between the extremes.

Sure it's fair to discredit them. If you can show that the Pirates are average or better in every situation that they're complaining about, they're wrong. Every hitter in baseball is going to fail to get a hit somewhere from 65%-75% of the time, so it's easy to come up with anecdotal evidence. Anecdotal evidence is worthless. It's like saying that it always rains when you forget to carry your umbrella just because that's what happened yesterday, and forgetting the ten times before that when you were carrying your umbrella. Statistics keep track of what actually happened. What happens in this case is the Pirates are better than most of the league in every situation that could possibly be called "clutch", and that they are better than average in cases where runners are in scoring position, whether you could call it clutch or not. I'm not citing some obscure, controversial new sabremetric formulas here, just simple batting average, because getting a hit with RISP is all you have to do to produce a run.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:04 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Look, the offense could have added insurance runs


And they didn't...

NSMaster56 wrote:
Don't let a recent example skew your opinion on the matter.


A recent example? This has been happening all season long.

Fine, go ahead and show us that. Show us evidence that the Pirates are worse than average at bringing in runs.

You can't, because they aren't.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:04 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
bassoondirector wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates are fifth in the league in batting average with RISP. They are fourth in the league in OPS with RISP. They're third in the league in runs scored. Whatever problems they might have, scoring runs in not among them. It's pitching, pitching, pitching.


What did you say Sisy? Are you watching this game against the Nats?

So let me see if I get this right.

All that matters is the most recent series. The most recent series is always a perfect representation of what a team is like. No good team every has a bad stretch. No bad team ever has a good stretch. No good hitting team is every stymied by a good pitching staff. No bad pitcher ever has a good day against a good hitting team. All that matters is the most recent series. Nothing happened before that. Everything after the series will be exactly the same as what happened in the most recent series.

Ah well, not as bad as one poster here, who thinks that all that matters is yesterday.

The Pirates score runs, plenty of runs, and they do it in a park that favors pitching. Only two teams score more, one in the Milwaukee bandbox and one in the rare air of Denver, and this is despite the awful start they got off to at the plate. The hitting is carrying this team. If the pitching and defense were anywhere near as good as the hitting they would be the best team in the NL by far, and maybe the best team in baseball.


I agree Sisy about the pitching and defense which has held this Pirate team back all season long.

I do want to say though that I live in the present and what happens now can affect and many times does affect how the future unfolds. I do not live in the past. As Jim Leyland has said...there is no momentum in baseball. Basically it's what happens today that matters. Yesterday is done and over with and nothing can be done about it. That's also Hurdle's belief.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:08 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Oh, absolutely, you need a guy who will go on a little run. Problem is, how do you know which guy is the one? It's a crapshoot.


As something of a 'speculator' (see: gambler), I would say the ones that seem like outliers.

Hughes strikes me as a fluke. His career ERA/FIP and/or peripherals do not match this season's. That is, we have three seasons worth of evidence and a current FIP in line with previous seasons (3.93 current vs. 4.01 career) that suggest that he is no 1.75 ERA guy. He's never been a high K guy.

Watson seems pretty legit. He's gotten better since breaking into the league. Problem is, he's (theoretically) peaking right about now. So he's a good 'trade high' candidate. But then who's the go-to lefty?

Shark is straight legit, but is in the middle of a 3/4 year run of effectiveness. That bubble will also burst (see: Grilli, Jason).

J-Wil is TBD.

If the Bucs are lucky one of Shark/Watson doesn't implode next year and J-Wil returns to respectability (ERA closer to his FIP, lowers WHIP).

The rest IDK.

Image

I'm not so sure that Hughes is entirely a fluke. I agree on Watson and Melancon, both are the real deal, but either could still blow up in any given year. And that's my point. Even the really good ones can have a year when their awful. Some of that is certainly the small sample size that relievers give you in a season; one bad out can skew their numbers for a long, long time.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:16 pm 
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Sisyphus wrote:
Show us evidence that the Pirates are worse than average at bringing in runs.


I'm not saying the Pirates are worse than average at bringing in runs...although average is not a great standard. I'm saying the Pirates seem to score most of their runs in bunches and once they do they don't add on or have a problem adding on. And, many times when those opportunities arise, that's when the Pirates seem to fail...cushioning a lead.

If the bullpen wasn't so erratic maybe a larger lead wouldn't matter. That was the original intent of my post. Failure to add on runs along with an erratic Bullpen that has trouble holding tight leads is I think...IMHO...a huge reason the Pirates aren't more successful than they are.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:20 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I'm not so sure that Hughes is entirely a fluke.


It's not realistic to expect his ERA to hold around what it is, be it this year or beyond. He's a high 3's guy. The rest of his stats are okay for a middle relief guy, but his current ERA is a fluke.

sisyphus wrote:
I agree on Watson and Melancon, both are the real deal, but either could still blow up in any given year. And that's my point. Even the really good ones can have a year when their awful. Some of that is certainly the small sample size that relievers give you in a season; one bad out can skew their numbers for a long, long time.


Trade Watson. Bring up Oliver. Work with J-Wil. Then hope the gamble pays off*.

Every decision is a 'gamble' ("life is risk"). Still, I'd be willing to bet that Watson's value is unlikely to be higher than it will be after this season.

*That probably won't happen since Watson is still a cost-controlled (non-Arb) asset. But 'speculative' wise it's a justifiable move.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 9:28 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I'm not so sure that Hughes is entirely a fluke.


It's not realistic to expect his ERA to hold around what it is, be it this year or beyond. He's a high 3's guy. The rest of his stats are okay for a middle relief guy, but his current ERA is a fluke.

sisyphus wrote:
I agree on Watson and Melancon, both are the real deal, but either could still blow up in any given year. And that's my point. Even the really good ones can have a year when their awful. Some of that is certainly the small sample size that relievers give you in a season; one bad out can skew their numbers for a long, long time.


Trade Watson. Bring up Oliver. Work with J-Wil. Then hope the gamble pays off*.

Every decision is a 'gamble' ("life is risk"). Still, I'd be willing to bet that Watson's value is unlikely to be higher than it will be after this season.

*That probably won't happen since Watson is still a cost-controlled (non-Arb) asset. But 'speculative' wise it's a justifiable move.

Hughes will always be as good as his command. If he keeps the ball down, the worst that can happen is losing in a blizzard of well placed dribblers.

I'm not willing to go with a bullpen of Wilson and Oliver. One guy with control problems is enough.

It's usually a good idea to hold on to a guy if his trade value is low, but that doesn't mean that you should deal a guy when his trade value is at it's peak. I wouldn't deal Watson for anything less than a ridiculous offer.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:03 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
It's usually a good idea to hold on to a guy if his trade value is low, but that doesn't mean that you should deal a guy when his trade value is at it's peak. I wouldn't deal Watson for anything less than a ridiculous offer.


Sports isn't the same as economics or statistics, which is what I would base my disagreement on*, so I'm willing to concede that point.

Watson doesn't look like a straight 'flash in the pan'. As a lefty specialist, with good peripherals, he does have a bright and possibly long future (even though he peaked around age 31-32, look how long someone like Arthur Rhodes hung around). So in that regard he's worth keeping around to drain as much future value as possible.

Still, and/or admittedly, my inner capitalist says 'trade now' [and reload].

Otherwise we're back at square one asking, 'when do you know [when a RP is done]?' :D

Nobody really knows. You just have to make a decision [to 'sell high' or not 'hold the bag'].

*Also, my range of expertise in both topics is limited, i.e. 'non-formal', so I may be wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Bullpen and Offense
PostPosted: Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:06 pm 
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And so the Pirates lose again...failure of the erratic Bullpen to hold on to a tie or tight lead late in the game and yes failure of the offense to add on runs with runners in scoring position AFTER they had scored to take a lead.

This game is to me is a microcosm of what is one of if the biggest problems with this Pirate team this year.

Oh well, after twenty years of losing, this is still fun. Meaningful games late in the year. I just hope these games are still meaningful in September.

And I still believe the Pirates are a good Wild Card team. I hope they can make it to the playoffs!

GO BUCS!

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