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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:11 am 
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Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
Nine games into life without McCutchen's bat in the lineup.

Game #1: Loss to Marlins (6-3); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 0-3 and Michael Martinez who went 0-0 with a walk. Team had 7 hits; 3 walks.
Game #2: Win over Marlins (7-3); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 0-4 which included a RBI groundout. Team had 9 hits; 4 walks.
Game #3: Win over Marlins (7-2); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 1-3 with a walk and run scored. Team had 13 hits; 2 walks.
Game #4: Win over Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 8 hits; 3 walks.
Game #5: Loss to Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 2-3 with two singles. Team had 9 hits; 0 walks.
Game #6: Loss to Padres (8-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 7 hits; 2 walks.
Game #7: Win over Tigers (11-6); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 3-4 with a double, 2 HRs, 3 runs scored and 4 RBIs. Team had 14 hits; 5 walks.
Game #8: Win over Tigers (4-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 2-4 with a single, (gift) double and a RBI. Team had 9 hits; 3 walks.
Game #9: Loss to Tigers (8-4); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a HR, walk, 1 run scored and 2 RBIs. Team had 6 hits; 5 walks.

Replacement Total: 11-32; 6 singles; 2 doubles; 3 HRs; 5 runs scored; 3 walks; 8 RBIs
Team record: 5-4

Same time span:
Milwaukee (5-4)
St. Louis (4-5)
Cincinnati (4-4)
Atlanta (3-5)
San Francisco (2-6)

Let's hope that the Pirates are now 3/5ths of the way through the games in which he cannot be in the lineup . . . that would require his return immediately upon being eligible to come off the DL.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:47 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Nearly five runs a game since Cutch went down (4.625).


Yeah . . . but really isn't it appropriate to focus on distributions, instead of averages?

In my mind, getting to 4 runs is the key to having a good chance to win a game in today's run scoring environments in the NL.

Before Cutch's injury, here are some stats to consider:

Number of games in which the Pirates scored more than 4 runs: 46
Record in those games: 37-9
Winning percentage: .804
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored more than 4 runs: 41.4%

Number of games in which the Pirates scored exactly 4 runs: 13
Record in those games: 10-3
Winning percentage: .769
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored exactly 4 runs: 11.7%

Number of games in which the Pirates scored less than 4 runs: 52
Record in those games: 12-40
Winning percentage: .231
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored less than 4 runs: 46.9%

Number of games in which the Pirates have scored 4 or more runs: 59
Record in those games: 47-12
Winning percentage in those games: .797
Percentage of games in which the Pirates have scored 4 or more runs: 53.1%

Here are the stats after Cutch's injury:

Number of games in which the Pirates scored more than 4 runs: 3
Record in those games: 3-0
Winning percentage: 1.000
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored more than 4 runs: 33.4%

Number of games in which the Pirates scored exactly 4 runs: 2
Record in those games: 1-1
Winning percentage: .500
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored exactly 4 runs: 22.2%

Number of games in which the Pirates scored less than 4 runs: 4
Record in those games: 1-3
Winning percentage: .250
Percentage of games in which the Pirates scored less than 4 runs: 44.4%

Number of games in which the Pirates have scored 4 or more runs: 5
Record in those games: 4-1
Winning percentage in those games: .800
Percentage of games in which the Pirates have scored 4 or more runs: 55.6%

Thus, even without Cutch's bat in the line-up, the Pirates' offense has been able to generate 4 runs or more at essentially the same rate as before his injury. They are winning those games at the same rate. They are losing games in which they score less than 4 runs at basically the same rate. Indeed, in this 9 game stretch, they've won games at a .555 rate when they were winning at a .531 rate before Cutch's injury.

So far . . . although it is only a 9 game stretch and there are at least 6 more games to play . . . the offense has done its job and generated sufficient run support - based on a game-to-game distribution - to keep the Pirates in the playoff hunt. My fingers are crossed that they can continue to do so over the next week.

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:01 pm 
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So Cutch replacements have a .344/.400/.688 line.

Don't expect that to hold, clearly - but baseball is a funny game.

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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:55 pm 
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This requires more skills and patience than I currently have, but I'm trying to figure out the lines from May 1992 when Barry Bonds went down and they replaced him in the lineup with Cecil Espy, Gary Redus, Lloyd McClendon and William Pennyfeather.

Aside from curiosity and comparison's sake, I just really wanted to make a William Pennyfeather reference.

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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:00 pm 
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Meanwhile, the team is missing the heck out of Neil Walker, but it's not getting nearly the press. When is he going to return?


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:16 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Nearly five runs a game since Cutch went down (4.625).


Yeah . . . but really isn't it appropriate to focus on distributions, instead of averages?

In my mind, getting to 4 runs is the key to having a good chance to win a game in today's run scoring environments in the NL.


Absolutely. I was just making a quick observation.

No. 9 wrote:
Thus, even without Cutch's bat in the line-up, the Pirates' offense has been able to generate 4 runs or more at essentially the same rate as before his injury. They are winning those games at the same rate. They are losing games in which they score less than 4 runs at basically the same rate. Indeed, in this 9 game stretch, they've won games at a .555 rate when they were winning at a .531 rate before Cutch's injury.

So far . . . although it is only a 9 game stretch and there are at least 6 more games to play . . . the offense has done its job and generated sufficient run support - based on a game-to-game distribution - to keep the Pirates in the playoff hunt. My fingers are crossed that they can continue to do so over the next week.


GREAT stuff! Hats off to that analysis.

It's encouraging to know that this team is more than 'only Cutch' (and can be expressed in numerous ways). That said, surely we all want him back to make this lineup one of the potential better ones in the league.

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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:10 am 
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Ten games into life without McCutchen's bat in the lineup.

Game #1: Loss to Marlins (6-3); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 0-3 and Michael Martinez who went 0-0 with a walk. Team had 7 hits; 3 walks.
Game #2: Win over Marlins (7-3); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 0-4 which included a RBI groundout. Team had 9 hits; 4 walks.
Game #3: Win over Marlins (7-2); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 1-3 with a walk and run scored. Team had 13 hits; 2 walks.
Game #4: Win over Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 8 hits; 3 walks.
Game #5: Loss to Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 2-3 with two singles. Team had 9 hits; 0 walks.
Game #6: Loss to Padres (8-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 7 hits; 2 walks.
Game #7: Win over Tigers (11-6); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 3-4 with a double, 2 HRs, 3 runs scored and 4 RBIs. Team had 14 hits; 5 walks.
Game #8: Win over Tigers (4-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 2-4 with a single, (gift) double and a RBI. Team had 9 hits; 3 walks.
Game #9: Loss to Tigers (8-4); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a HR, walk, 1 run scored and 2 RBIs. Team had 6 hits; 5 walks.
Game #10: Loss to Tigers (5-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a double and a walk. Team had 4 hits; 3 walks.

Replacement Total: 12-35; 6 singles; 3 doubles; 3 HRs; 5 runs scored; 4 walks; 8 RBIs
Team record: 5-5

Same time span:
Milwaukee (6-4)
St. Louis (5-5)
Cincinnati (4-5)
Atlanta (3-6)
San Francisco (2-6)

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:02 pm 
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Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
Thirteen games into life without McCutchen's bat in the lineup.

Game #1: Loss to Marlins (6-3); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 0-3 and Michael Martinez who went 0-0 with a walk. Team had 7 hits; 3 walks.
Game #2: Win over Marlins (7-3); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 0-4 which included a RBI groundout. Team had 9 hits; 4 walks.
Game #3: Win over Marlins (7-2); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 1-3 with a walk and run scored. Team had 13 hits; 2 walks.
Game #4: Win over Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 8 hits; 3 walks.
Game #5: Loss to Padres (2-1); replacement in lineup was Jayson Nix who went 2-3 with two singles. Team had 9 hits; 0 walks.
Game #6: Loss to Padres (8-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 7 hits; 2 walks.
Game #7: Win over Tigers (11-6); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 3-4 with a double, 2 HRs, 3 runs scored and 4 RBIs. Team had 14 hits; 5 walks.
Game #8: Win over Tigers (4-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 2-4 with a single, (gift) double and a RBI. Team had 9 hits; 3 walks.
Game #9: Loss to Tigers (8-4); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a HR, walk, 1 run scored and 2 RBIs. Team had 6 hits; 5 walks.
Game #10: Loss to Tigers (5-2); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a double and a walk. Team had 4 hits; 3 walks.
Game #11: Loss to Nationals (5-4); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-3 with a single, a walk and a run scored. Team had 8 hits and 2 walks.
Game #12: Loss to Nationals (4-3); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 1-4 with a single. Team had 8 hits and 2 walks.
Game #13: Loss to Nationals (6-5); replacement in lineup was Travis Snider who went 2-4 with 2 singles. Team had 10 hits and 2 walks.

Replacement Total: 16-46; 10 singles; 3 doubles; 3 HRs; 6 runs scored; 5 walks; 8 RBIs
Team record: 5-8

Same time span:
Milwaukee (9-4) - Pirates lose 4 games
St. Louis (7-6) - Pirates lose 2 game
Cincinnati (5-7) - Pirates lose 1/2 game
Atlanta (6-6) - Pirates lose 1.5 games
San Francisco (4-7) - Pirates "push" with Giants

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:35 pm 
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The Replacements have an 11 game hitting streak going. But we're losing Snider's bat off the bench, screwing around in the OF and just too weak across the rest of the lineup. Cutch really can't get back too soon...


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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 1:55 pm 
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val wrote:
The Replacements have an 11 game hitting streak going. But we're losing Snider's bat off the bench, screwing around in the OF and just too weak across the rest of the lineup. Cutch really can't get back too soon...

I think that Mercer is even more important, as his absence is the reason we are seeing Pedro at third again.

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 Post subject: Re: The Life Without Cutch Countdown
PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:21 pm 
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val wrote:
The Replacements have an 11 game hitting streak going. But we're losing Snider's bat off the bench, screwing around in the OF and just too weak across the rest of the lineup. Cutch really can't get back too soon...


You see how aggressive Snider was on that RBI fly ball to LF yesterday? Blah. Marte likely makes that catch.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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