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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:09 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
You take the team full of guys who swing at ball four, I'll take the team of guys who take ball four, and your team is going to lose a heckuva lot more games than my team.

Where did I say anything about swinging at ball 4? I clearly said Davis is taking a lot of GOOD pitches; I assume in an attempt to work the count. They are pitches he should be trying to drive somewhere. If you are a middle of the order guy and your best attribute is OBP then you aren't a very good middle of the order guy. Again, not saying swing at bad pitches but start driving those meaty fastballs instead of worrying so much about working the count.

Last year people defended Pedro's .290ish OBP by saying he makes up with it by hitting HR's. I agree(although I'd have liked his OBP to be a little higher). He wasn't taking those meaty fastballs trying to work the count. He was clobbering them. That's what I want middle of the order guys to do. That's also why I wasn't big on getting Loney...good OBP, lousy slugging % for a cleanup guy.

Again, I'm not advocating swinging wildly just because you are a middle of the order guy or even to not work the count. I'm saying Davis gets himself in a lot of 2 strike counts without lifting the bat off his shoulders. Looking at his stats he was clearly a more aggressive hitter before...maybe he should at least get a little of that back in his game.


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:03 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
You take the team full of guys who swing at ball four, I'll take the team of guys who take ball four, and your team is going to lose a heckuva lot more games than my team.

Where did I say anything about swinging at ball 4? I clearly said Davis is taking a lot of GOOD pitches; I assume in an attempt to work the count. They are pitches he should be trying to drive somewhere. If you are a middle of the order guy and your best attribute is OBP then you aren't a very good middle of the order guy. Again, not saying swing at bad pitches but start driving those meaty fastballs instead of worrying so much about working the count.

Last year people defended Pedro's .290ish OBP by saying he makes up with it by hitting HR's. I agree(although I'd have liked his OBP to be a little higher). He wasn't taking those meaty fastballs trying to work the count. He was clobbering them. That's what I want middle of the order guys to do. That's also why I wasn't big on getting Loney...good OBP, lousy slugging % for a cleanup guy.

Again, I'm not advocating swinging wildly just because you are a middle of the order guy or even to not work the count. I'm saying Davis gets himself in a lot of 2 strike counts without lifting the bat off his shoulders. Looking at his stats he was clearly a more aggressive hitter before...maybe he should at least get a little of that back in his game.

He doesn't take a lot of good pitches. He takes a lot of strikes in areas that he thinks he can't handle very well. You did criticize OBP and cited taking walks with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position. I'll take the walks over the outs he'd make on the strikes he'd swing at early in the count.

Davis has been in a two strike count in 56% of his plate appearances this year. In 2012 when he hit 32 homers, he was in a two strike count in 55% of his plate appearances. Do you really think that the 1% difference is the reason he's having a bad year?

You didn't hear me defending Pedro's .290 OBP.

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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:59 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
You take the team full of guys who swing at ball four, I'll take the team of guys who take ball four, and your team is going to lose a heckuva lot more games than my team.

Where did I say anything about swinging at ball 4? I clearly said Davis is taking a lot of GOOD pitches; I assume in an attempt to work the count. They are pitches he should be trying to drive somewhere. If you are a middle of the order guy and your best attribute is OBP then you aren't a very good middle of the order guy. Again, not saying swing at bad pitches but start driving those meaty fastballs instead of worrying so much about working the count.

Last year people defended Pedro's .290ish OBP by saying he makes up with it by hitting HR's. I agree(although I'd have liked his OBP to be a little higher). He wasn't taking those meaty fastballs trying to work the count. He was clobbering them. That's what I want middle of the order guys to do. That's also why I wasn't big on getting Loney...good OBP, lousy slugging % for a cleanup guy.

Again, I'm not advocating swinging wildly just because you are a middle of the order guy or even to not work the count. I'm saying Davis gets himself in a lot of 2 strike counts without lifting the bat off his shoulders. Looking at his stats he was clearly a more aggressive hitter before...maybe he should at least get a little of that back in his game.

He doesn't take a lot of good pitches. He takes a lot of strikes in areas that he thinks he can't handle very well. You did criticize OBP and cited taking walks with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position. I'll take the walks over the outs he'd make on the strikes he'd swing at early in the count.

Davis has been in a two strike count in 56% of his plate appearances this year. In 2012 when he hit 32 homers, he was in a two strike count in 55% of his plate appearances. Do you really think that the 1% difference is the reason he's having a bad year?

You didn't hear me defending Pedro's .290 OBP.

I see him take a lot of pitches that anybody should handle. He likes to see a lot of pitches, but I still think he needs to be more aggressive earlier in the count. At this point it couldn't hurt to try a slightly different approach.

I'm surprised the % is so close. He struck out a lot, but hit a lot of HR's. I guess that's why you shouldn't assume. I couldn't find recent data...that seems like a high % of two strike at bats? Is that correct?


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:33 am 
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I agree Davis is too passive. Taking a walk is almost always a good thing, but driving the ball in the gap or over the wall is better. Davis doesn't drive the ball nearly enough.

Gaby's at bat Sunday was a perfect example of too passive an approach. We just needed a fly ball to take the lead, and he looks at strike three down the middle then argues with the ump about it. We needed an agressive approach there not a walk.


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:47 am 
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Metric experts don't factor in the importance of your role to the team. Every hitter is supposed to take walks or he sucks. Middle of the order guys are supposed to hit HRs and drive runs in. If you're up there with two guys on working a walk when you have runners on, then you're not who I want hitting from 3-5. It's one thing to take a walk when that's what they're giving you, it's another thing to have the approach of 'I want a walk'. Which seems to be a guy like Joey Votto, who is a very good player but if I'm going to pay someone 100 million dollars I want to see HRs, hits, and runs being driven in from that person. Otherwise they're a 1-2 hitter.

This is why I have no problem with how they've used Harrison. Use all the stats you want, he's swinging the bat with a purpose. He's not a legit solution probably, but his approach is the kind of approach I like in 3-5 hitters.

Ike Davis hitting .240 while walking with no power isn't doing shit for us. That's not the role of a first baseman. This season, he's the best we have, yeah. Next year though, if you can get a legit power bar like Pedro into that spot, you have to do it.


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 11:17 am 
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Leway512 wrote:
Metric experts don't factor in the importance of your role to the team. Every hitter is supposed to take walks or he sucks. Middle of the order guys are supposed to hit HRs and drive runs in. If you're up there with two guys on working a walk when you have runners on, then you're not who I want hitting from 3-5. It's one thing to take a walk when that's what they're giving you, it's another thing to have the approach of 'I want a walk'. Which seems to be a guy like Joey Votto, who is a very good player but if I'm going to pay someone 100 million dollars I want to see HRs, hits, and runs being driven in from that person. Otherwise they're a 1-2 hitter.

This is why I have no problem with how they've used Harrison. Use all the stats you want, he's swinging the bat with a purpose. He's not a legit solution probably, but his approach is the kind of approach I like in 3-5 hitters.

Ike Davis hitting .240 while walking with no power isn't doing shit for us. That's not the role of a first baseman. This season, he's the best we have, yeah. Next year though, if you can get a legit power bar like Pedro into that spot, you have to do it.

Exactly. That's what I was trying to get at. Davis is taking pitches down the middle that he should be driving in a gap somewhere. Instead he is trying to "work the count".


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:41 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
I see him take a lot of pitches that anybody should handle. He likes to see a lot of pitches, but I still think he needs to be more aggressive earlier in the count. At this point it couldn't hurt to try a slightly different approach.

I'm surprised the % is so close. He struck out a lot, but hit a lot of HR's. I guess that's why you shouldn't assume. I couldn't find recent data...that seems like a high % of two strike at bats? Is that correct?

I don't know, Davis is the only guy I've looked that number up for, but yes, it looks like an extraordinary percentage of his at bats go to a two strike count to me. I'd look up the league average if I could think of a place to find it.

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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 2:57 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
Metric experts don't factor in the importance of your role to the team. Every hitter is supposed to take walks or he sucks.

You'd be right, if that's what they really believed. It's not.

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Middle of the order guys are supposed to hit HRs and drive runs in. If you're up there with two guys on working a walk when you have runners on, then you're not who I want hitting from 3-5.

I'll take the guys who walk, you take the guys who pop up or bounce into a DP going after a strike that they can't handle, then sit back and watch my team beat the hell out of your team all year long.

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It's one thing to take a walk when that's what they're giving you, it's another thing to have the approach of 'I want a walk'. Which seems to be a guy like Joey Votto, who is a very good player but if I'm going to pay someone 100 million dollars I want to see HRs, hits, and runs being driven in from that person. Otherwise they're a 1-2 hitter.

Nobody suggests that anybody go up to the plate trying to walk. The point of patience at the plate is to let strikes thrown in places that you can't handle early in the count go by in the hopes of seeing strikes in places that you can handle later in the count. That and not being stupid enough to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. The point is not to draw walks. The point is to avoid making outs.

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This is why I have no problem with how they've used Harrison. Use all the stats you want, he's swinging the bat with a purpose. He's not a legit solution probably, but his approach is the kind of approach I like in 3-5 hitters.

I'd prefer seeing Harrison at 5 myself. That's based on the stats that you hate so much.

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Ike Davis hitting .240 while walking with no power isn't doing shit for us. That's not the role of a first baseman. This season, he's the best we have, yeah. Next year though, if you can get a legit power bar like Pedro into that spot, you have to do it.

Davis is definitely having a bad year. Pedro's barely better than him at the plate, though. The role of a first baseman is to play first base. The role of a hitter is to avoid making outs. Your position does not dictate what sort of offensive player you have to be. First base tends to accumulate power bats because the body type most common to power hitters can't handle shortstop, not because you have to have power from first base. The Pirates get more power than usual from center field, second base and, when Pedro was himself, third base. The Pirates went to the playoffs three times in the early nineties while getting little or no power from first base; then went again last year getting nothing at all from first basemen when righties were pitching against them.

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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 3:48 pm 
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Quote:
I'll take the guys who walk, you take the guys who pop up or bounce into a DP going after a strike that they can't handle, then sit back and watch my team beat the hell out of your team all year long.


I didn't ask for guys who swing out of the zone. I said guys who take what the pitchers give them, but go up there to hit the ball. But if I were asking for players who do what you say, if that player hit me 35-40 HR's and still grounded into DP's or popped the ball up, he'd still be more valuable to me than your OBP freaks. It's all about building a lineup. Walks are useless when you realize that your best hitter is now on base, and you have mediocrity behind him. But in the metric world, protection doesn't exist either.

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Davis is definitely having a bad year. Pedro's barely better than him at the plate, though. The role of a first baseman is to play first base. The role of a hitter is to avoid making outs. Your position does not dictate what sort of offensive player you have to be. First base tends to accumulate power bats because the body type most common to power hitters can't handle shortstop, not because you have to have power from first base. The Pirates get more power than usual from center field, second base and, when Pedro was himself, third base. The Pirates went to the playoffs three times in the early nineties while getting little or no power from first base; then went again last year getting nothing at all from first basemen when righties were pitching against them.


Wrong. The role of corner IF is to hit for power, because those are your power positions. If they weren't, you could throw much better fielders out there than the Pedro Alvarez's and Ike Davis' of this world. Nobody is saying they NEED power from first base, or absolutely must have power from first base. What I'm saying is, you have a third baseman who can't play third anymore. He has awesome power. He would make a good first baseman next year. Your current first baseman has shown nothing in the way of power, or hitting in general, but has an OBP. Why in the world would you want Ike Davis over Pedro Alvarez?

It's just a solution to the Pirates problems with their corner infield, that's all. You can have your opinion on what type of player is more valuable than the other. You're going to realize that you're asking for perfection from players, and the type of guys who don't swing at pitches out of the zone, hit for average, hit for power, drive in runs, and walk, are few and far between and called "Superstars". You'd be lucky to have one on your team, let alone a lineup of them. We have one, until Greg Polanco proves otherwise. The rest of the lineup needs to be tailored to him.

Here in reality, outside of metrics, your lineup consists of ROLEPLAYERS. Everyone fills a role in that lineup to make it the most efficient. If we want Ike Davis to get on base, then bat him 1-2 in our lineup and then see if he's still getting on base. If we have the option of putting a better hitter on first base, who gets on base less (even though his on-base problems have gotten better this year), then why do we want Ike Davis?


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 Post subject: Re: Good for Pedro
PostPosted: Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:04 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
I didn't ask for guys who swing out of the zone. I said guys who take what the pitchers give them, but go up there to hit the ball. But if I were asking for players who do what you say, if that player hit me 35-40 HR's and still grounded into DP's or popped the ball up, he'd still be more valuable to me than your OBP freaks. It's all about building a lineup. Walks are useless when you realize that your best hitter is now on base, and you have mediocrity behind him. But in the metric world, protection doesn't exist either.


Read it again. I said guys who go after strikes that they can't handle early in the count.

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Wrong. The role of corner IF is to hit for power, because those are your power positions. If they weren't, you could throw much better fielders out there than the Pedro Alvarez's and Ike Davis' of this world. Nobody is saying they NEED power from first base, or absolutely must have power from first base. What I'm saying is, you have a third baseman who can't play third anymore. He has awesome power. He would make a good first baseman next year. Your current first baseman has shown nothing in the way of power, or hitting in general, but has an OBP. Why in the world would you want Ike Davis over Pedro Alvarez?

I'm sorry, but you're just plain incorrect. The position of a player is totally unrelated to his hitting. Or are the Orioles stupid for playing Cal Ripken at short? After all, he had the power of a first baseman. You're taking the way that things usually work out and turning it into a law of nature. It doesn't matter where your power comes from. It doesn't even matter if your team has power (see the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1980's, 747 runs scored and a mere 87 HR's). What matters is scoring runs, whether it's by a shortstop who hits home runs or a high on base guy with little power at first.

Quote:
It's just a solution to the Pirates problems with their corner infield, that's all. You can have your opinion on what type of player is more valuable than the other. You're going to realize that you're asking for perfection from players, and the type of guys who don't swing at pitches out of the zone, hit for average, hit for power, drive in runs, and walk, are few and far between and called "Superstars". You'd be lucky to have one on your team, let alone a lineup of them. We have one, until Greg Polanco proves otherwise. The rest of the lineup needs to be tailored to him.

I didn't ask for any of that, but go ahead and make up what I said, it will make things easier for you.

Quote:
Here in reality, outside of metrics, your lineup consists of ROLEPLAYERS. Everyone fills a role in that lineup to make it the most efficient. If we want Ike Davis to get on base, then bat him 1-2 in our lineup and then see if he's still getting on base. If we have the option of putting a better hitter on first base, who gets on base less (even though his on-base problems have gotten better this year), then why do we want Ike Davis?

The role is not some perfect model of the ideal, it's getting the most out of whatever you have. Again, see the 1985 Cardinals, no power, lots of guys who can get on base and run the bases once they got there. It worked. Some teams do it with power, some with a high batting average, some by drawing tons of walks, most have a mix of them all, and it doesn't matter where each type of hitter lines up when they play defense. The Pirates are one of the best offensive teams in the league RIGHT NOW, getting almost nothing out of first base. How do you explain that, considering you're insistence on offensive roles determined by what position a guy plays? They're one home run out of third in the National League in home runs with a mere 10 out of their first basemen. How do you explain that? You can't.

You're taking the way things usually are, and turning it into the way things always have to be. Well, they don't always have to be that way.

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