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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:40 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:52 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Billy Beane is on record as saying that you do everything you can to make they playoff, but everything after that is a coin toss. He made these deals to win the division. He HOPES to win a World Series. And the main reason he made these trades is because he knows that his window pretty much closes after this season. Not so for the Pirates.


This.

My lord, I've agreed with Sisyphus twice in one day! :shock:

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:55 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Billy Beane is on record as saying that you do everything you can to make they playoff, but everything after that is a coin toss. He made these deals to win the division. He HOPES to win a World Series. And the main reason he made these trades is because he knows that his window pretty much closes after this season. Not so for the Pirates.


Why does Oakland's window "pretty much close[]" after this season? He has a LOT of guys still under contract for 2015, including his star guys and pitchers like Samardzija, Kazmir, and Gray. He has a demonstrated ability to improve his big-league team through trades. He isn't hampered by bad contracts.

So tell me, why in the world does Oakland's window close after 2014?

Pretty much closes. It slams shut after 2015. I don't see what he has to trade with after that, so the wheeling and dealing of all those contracts that expire after 2015 should begin about five minutes after the last out of their last game this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:59 am 
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JollyRoger wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I'm not gonna say definitively that there's a right or wrong way to do this. Me personally, I would have kept my prospects (though if Price was in play, hypothetically, and it took a better offer than TB got, I'd have done it). But I get that it's at least somewhat opinion either way.

However, the doom and gloom types that do this same song and dance that the team isn't trying and needs to sell off young kids to have any hope of competing this year and that the season is over now are crazy. And annoying.


It seems like a whole lot of the fanbase was ready to give up really good prospects for the sake of making a move. I think it's also lost on some that the Pirates probably (hopefully) won't be in a position to build up the top, top end organizational depth through the draft for a good period of time. We'll be seeing lots of Cole Tucker types and very few Austin Meadows, Reese McGuire, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, etc... types. Granted, guys like Kingham and Glasnow weren't 1st rounders but the point remains.

The vast majority of the fan base has been screaming to trade the prospects ever since the Pirates first got prospects. Whenever they pause in their screaming that they should sign free agents and about how cheap Nutting is, I mean.

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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 10:54 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Pretty much closes. It slams shut after 2015. I don't see what he has to trade with after that, so the wheeling and dealing of all those contracts that expire after 2015 should begin about five minutes after the last out of their last game this year.


I'm convinced that Beane takes two more shots with this team -- one in 2014 and one in 2015. And you can say it "slams shut" after that, but I'm pretty sure Billy Beane has a nice plan for Oakland after that time frame, and I'll trust him a little bit more than I'll trust your opinion.


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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:39 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Pretty much closes. It slams shut after 2015. I don't see what he has to trade with after that, so the wheeling and dealing of all those contracts that expire after 2015 should begin about five minutes after the last out of their last game this year.


I'm convinced that Beane takes two more shots with this team -- one in 2014 and one in 2015. And you can say it "slams shut" after that, but I'm pretty sure Billy Beane has a nice plan for Oakland after that time frame, and I'll trust him a little bit more than I'll trust your opinion.

Oh, I don't underestimate Beane's abilities. He's going to have a hard time putting enough together for next year, though, and 2016 looks like it's likely to be a very down year while he reloads. So I think it's fair to say that the window slams shut.

Speaking of windows, when does the window close for the Pirates? As I see it right now, it doesn't, not for the foreseeable future. That's something that can change quickly with injuries and flameouts, though. But since I don't see that the window will be closing for quite a while, I don't think that bringing that day a lot closer by going "all in" is a very good idea.

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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:46 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Speaking of windows, when does the window close for the Pirates? As I see it right now, it doesn't, not for the foreseeable future. That's something that can change quickly with injuries and flameouts, though. But since I don't see that the window will be closing for quite a while, I don't think that bringing that day a lot closer by going "all in" is a very good idea.


It's a good question. I think the projectible window for the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen's contract, which runs through 2018. Unless Polanco becomes a SUPERSTAR, the Pirates don't have another MVP-level player to carry them other than Cutch.

The Pirates' BEST chances to compete are likely in 2015 and 2016, when Cutch is still in his prime, Walker/Pedro/Marte are still solid pieces (hoping that Pedro fixes his yips), Polanco has started figuring out the league, and Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, and maybe Tyler Glasnow are all up and ready to go. If the Pirates are 15 games over .500 at next year's trade deadline, I think Neal Huntington should definitely consider giving up some significant pieces of the future to win in 2015/2016. But we shall see how things develop.


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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:03 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Pretty much closes. It slams shut after 2015. I don't see what he has to trade with after that, so the wheeling and dealing of all those contracts that expire after 2015 should begin about five minutes after the last out of their last game this year.


I'm convinced that Beane takes two more shots with this team -- one in 2014 and one in 2015. And you can say it "slams shut" after that, but I'm pretty sure Billy Beane has a nice plan for Oakland after that time frame, and I'll trust him a little bit more than I'll trust your opinion.



Last time an A's window closed, they didn't get above .500 for 5 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Twitter Report: Lester Traded To The A's
PostPosted: Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:50 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Speaking of windows, when does the window close for the Pirates? As I see it right now, it doesn't, not for the foreseeable future. That's something that can change quickly with injuries and flameouts, though. But since I don't see that the window will be closing for quite a while, I don't think that bringing that day a lot closer by going "all in" is a very good idea.


It's a good question. I think the projectible window for the Pirates is Andrew McCutchen's contract, which runs through 2018. Unless Polanco becomes a SUPERSTAR, the Pirates don't have another MVP-level player to carry them other than Cutch.

The Pirates' BEST chances to compete are likely in 2015 and 2016, when Cutch is still in his prime, Walker/Pedro/Marte are still solid pieces (hoping that Pedro fixes his yips), Polanco has started figuring out the league, and Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, and maybe Tyler Glasnow are all up and ready to go. If the Pirates are 15 games over .500 at next year's trade deadline, I think Neal Huntington should definitely consider giving up some significant pieces of the future to win in 2015/2016. But we shall see how things develop.

Yes, I think that McCutchen's contract makes 2018 a good signpost for now. It's pretty hard to see anything beyond that, because the guys who will be ready in 2019 are either in the very low minors or yet to be drafted. Each year as the younger guys develop you can make a better guess as to how true that might be. If I'm using 2018 as my "best used by" date, I probably wouldn't shoot the moon in 2015, but each year after that the chances would increase, depending on how the big team looks and how the minor leaguers are developing. For example, I wouldn't have been willing to deal Marte last year, but this year I'd consider it, given Josh Bell's development and Lambo's assault on AAA pitching.

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