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 Post subject: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:42 am 
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With the trade deadline approaching this Thursday, July 31, I thought I'd start an OFFICIAL thread for us all to discuss the occasion. Now let's hope other teams do stupid things and the Pirates do smart things. That would be nice.

According to my Twitter sources, the Pirates are IN on every player in baseball, including guys who have retired or died. So Marlon Byrd, A.J. Burnett, Antonio Bastardo, and maybe even some non-Phillies players are definitely on their way to the 'Burgh. Definitely. According to my talk radio sources, the Pirates are DUMB unless they trade Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, Austin Meadows, and Frank Coonelly to Tampa Bay for David Price... or maybe to Boston for Jon Lester.

In all truth, I don't see much that the Pirates can really do. The only relievers that I'd like to see Huntington try to acquire (for a reasonable price) would be the Padres' Joaquin Benoit or the Red Sox's Andrew Miller. Either of those guys would truly upgrade the bullpen. I believe the rotation can stabilize with Liriano-Cole-Morton-Locke-Worley and Volquez moving to the 'pen. Given the cost of starting pitching, I don't see the Pirates making a move there. Now, I wouldn't mind an additional right-handed bench bat, but there aren't many guys out there (and Byrd's contract, which runs through 2015 with an $8 option for 2016 that could vest based on PAs, ain't worth it). Plus, I believe Andrew Lambo can be a quality bench bat with decent positional flexibility (LF, RF, 1B) for the last two months of the season.

We shall see...

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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:16 pm 
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I think Glasnow has to be untouchable at this point. I would be willing to part with Kingham if the pitcher we get in return has at least two years of control left, preferably three. I would also be willing to part with Bell or Meadows, but not both.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:28 pm 
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In my opinion the Pirates should either make a bold move or do nothing at all. And by bold move I mean an ace. This team can't win the world series without an ace. Personally I think prospects are overvalued. Everyone constantly refers to this as a "sellers market". When was the last time there was a "buyers market"? This is what the market has been, is, and will continue to be for established major league talent. The prospect talent that teams are now willing to give up has more to do with a correction in prospect valuations by GMs than this being a sellers market. The Pirates can make a bold move and it won't crash the farm system. They have a fairly deep system. More importantly they have solid scouting and development people that will replenish the lost talent. That is just my 2 cents.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:30 pm 
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Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:33 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
In my opinion the Pirates should either make a bold move or do nothing at all. And by bold move I mean an ace. This team can't win the world series without an ace. Personally I think prospects are overvalued. Everyone constantly refers to this as a "sellers market". When was the last time there was a "buyers market"? This is what the market has been, is, and will continue to be for established major league talent. The prospect talent that teams are now willing to give up has more to do with a correction in prospect valuations by GMs than this being a sellers market. The Pirates can make a bold move and it won't crash the farm system. They have a fairly deep system. More importantly they have solid scouting and development people that will replenish the lost talent. That is just my 2 cents.


I hear you, and I generally agree, but I believe the Pirates CANNOT trade pitching prospects who have the chance to become "aces." Even if team revenues continue their current upswing, the Pirates will never be able to sign a true pitching "ace" in free agency. So they must grow their own. That means drafting high-end pitching talent and keeping it so that the wheat can separate from the chaff. It also means NOT trading the likes of Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, and Tyler Glasnow.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:36 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.


I like the idea. I would love it if Denorfia could play corner infield.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:40 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
With the trade deadline approaching this Thursday, July 31, I thought I'd start an OFFICIAL thread for us all to discuss the occasion. Now let's hope other teams do stupid things and the Pirates do smart things. That would be nice.

According to my Twitter sources, the Pirates are IN on every player in baseball, including guys who have retired or died. So Marlon Byrd, A.J. Burnett, Antonio Bastardo, and maybe even some non-Phillies players are definitely on their way to the 'Burgh. Definitely. According to my talk radio sources, the Pirates are DUMB unless they trade Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, Nick Kingham, Austin Meadows, and Frank Coonelly to Tampa Bay for David Price... or maybe to Boston for Jon Lester.

In all truth, I don't see much that the Pirates can really do. The only relievers that I'd like to see Huntington try to acquire (for a reasonable price) would be the Padres' Joaquin Benoit or the Red Sox's Andrew Miller. Either of those guys would truly upgrade the bullpen. I believe the rotation can stabilize with Liriano-Cole-Morton-Locke-Worley and Volquez moving to the 'pen. Given the cost of starting pitching, I don't see the Pirates making a move there. Now, I wouldn't mind an additional right-handed bench bat, but there aren't many guys out there (and Byrd's contract, which runs through 2015 with an $8 option for 2016 that could vest based on PAs, ain't worth it). Plus, I believe Andrew Lambo can be a quality bench bat with decent positional flexibility (LF, RF, 1B) for the last two months of the season.

We shall see...

Image

My guess is that no deals will be made by the deadline because the asking prices I'm hearing are just plain ridiculous, and that backed up by the costs for the guys who have already been dealt, which were pretty close to ridiculous themselves. A post deadline deal for somebody who has cleared waivers might happen, though.

I'm not anxious to make a deal that gives up any decent prospect anyway. The Pirates right now are trying to win a chance to participate in a one game coin flip of a playoff. If you're going to give up top prospects, it has to be for a guy who you think will put you over the top for a championship, not a coin toss.

In any case, I wouldn't deal Glasnow for anybody in baseball right now. His upside is Nolan Ryan and it looks to me that his downside is a near All-Star, assuming good health. And as I always say, never give up anything of value for a bullpen guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:42 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.


I just don't see the Pirates paying a relief pitcher $8 million next season. I guess If they think they could flip him in the offseason it would be doable. This would makee them better. I just don't think this makes them good enough to win a playoff a series. I'm note even sure Ramirez and Sampson is enough to get them. Really depends on how the Padres view them. They aren't consensus can't miss prospects. I'm sure the industry has widely varying views on what they will become.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:42 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.

The Pirates are not going to go with no backup shortstop. It's just not going to happen.

_________________
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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:42 pm 
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I hope we can at least upgrade the Michael Martinez spot. I don't expect Clint Barmes back any time soon, and even if he does come back, he would still be Clint Barmes.

Hopefully we have two big upgrades coming soon with Marte and Cole.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:43 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
My guess is that no deals will be made by the deadline because the asking prices I'm hearing are just plain ridiculous, and that backed up by the costs for the guys who have already been dealt, which were pretty close to ridiculous themselves. A post deadline deal for somebody who has cleared waivers might happen, though.

I'm not anxious to make a deal that gives up any decent prospect anyway. The Pirates right now are trying to win a chance to participate in a one game coin flip of a playoff. If you're going to give up top prospects, it has to be for a guy who you think will put you over the top for a championship, not a coin toss.

In any case, I wouldn't deal Glasnow for anybody in baseball right now. His upside is Nolan Ryan and it looks to me that his downside is a near All-Star, assuming good health. And as I always say, never give up anything of value for a bullpen guy.


The Pirates are only 2 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central division lead. With Molina and Wacha hurt, Votto and Phillips hurt, and the Brewers flagging, the Pirates have a good shot at winning the division. A boost to the bullpen and a nice bench bat could definitely help, provided the price is right.

I actually feel better about this team than last year's 94-win squad. The offense is MUCH better and the rotation is starting to come around. None of the Pirates' success this season seems fluky or lucky.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:44 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.

The Pirates are not going to go with no backup shortstop. It's just not going to happen.


Eh. If Mercer gets hurt, the team could bring up someone from AAA. Remember, we're only a month to roster expansion, so going without a true backup SS for August wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:45 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
My guess is that no deals will be made by the deadline because the asking prices I'm hearing are just plain ridiculous, and that backed up by the costs for the guys who have already been dealt, which were pretty close to ridiculous themselves. A post deadline deal for somebody who has cleared waivers might happen, though.

I'm not anxious to make a deal that gives up any decent prospect anyway. The Pirates right now are trying to win a chance to participate in a one game coin flip of a playoff. If you're going to give up top prospects, it has to be for a guy who you think will put you over the top for a championship, not a coin toss.

In any case, I wouldn't deal Glasnow for anybody in baseball right now. His upside is Nolan Ryan and it looks to me that his downside is a near All-Star, assuming good health. And as I always say, never give up anything of value for a bullpen guy.


The Pirates are only 2 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central division lead. With Molina and Wacha hurt, Votto and Phillips hurt, and the Brewers flagging, the Pirates have a good shot at winning the division. A boost to the bullpen and a nice bench bat could definitely help, provided the price is right.

I actually feel better about this team than last year's 94-win squad. The offense is MUCH better and the rotation is starting to come around. None of the Pirates' success this season seems fluky or lucky.

Name a guy who is worth a win a month who will come at a reasonable cost and I'll change my mind. People in general greatly overestimate the value that one guy can bring for two months of play. And you're talking about relievers and bench guys. One of each probably wouldn't be worth a single win together for two months.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:48 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Eh. If Mercer gets hurt, the team could bring up someone from AAA. Remember, we're only a month to roster expansion, so going without a true backup SS for August wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

If Mercer gets hurt, the season is over. There is nobody else unless Barmes comes back. And look at the roster construction for the last two years. They have never been without a backup shortstop, and I'm pretty sure that the haven't had a roster with less than two backup infielders.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:58 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
My guess is that no deals will be made by the deadline because the asking prices I'm hearing are just plain ridiculous, and that backed up by the costs for the guys who have already been dealt, which were pretty close to ridiculous themselves. A post deadline deal for somebody who has cleared waivers might happen, though.

I'm not anxious to make a deal that gives up any decent prospect anyway. The Pirates right now are trying to win a chance to participate in a one game coin flip of a playoff. If you're going to give up top prospects, it has to be for a guy who you think will put you over the top for a championship, not a coin toss.

In any case, I wouldn't deal Glasnow for anybody in baseball right now. His upside is Nolan Ryan and it looks to me that his downside is a near All-Star, assuming good health. And as I always say, never give up anything of value for a bullpen guy.


The Pirates are only 2 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central division lead. With Molina and Wacha hurt, Votto and Phillips hurt, and the Brewers flagging, the Pirates have a good shot at winning the division. A boost to the bullpen and a nice bench bat could definitely help, provided the price is right.

I actually feel better about this team than last year's 94-win squad. The offense is MUCH better and the rotation is starting to come around. None of the Pirates' success this season seems fluky or lucky.

I'll go one step further. The entire National League is a crap shoot right now. I like the Dodgers and Nationals pitching, but their lineups aren't all that impressive. Other than that pitching advantage from those two teams I think you can throw a net around about 8 teams. The Bucs have a real shot to win this division. It could come down to who makes the best deals.

The only top pitching prospect I would trade is Kingham, and it would have to be for the right deal. Maybe the steep asking prices come down as we get to the wire. I would get rid of Frieri before DFA Gomez if they acquire bullpen help.

I have been a proponent of playing Pedro every day and hoping he gets hot. But with every poor throw I move closer to thinking maybe a trade to the AL, where he could DH, would be good for both parties. It may sweeten a deal enough to get something of value in return.

My final guess is they make a "minor" move for some bullpen help.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:00 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Name a guy who is worth a win a month who will come at a reasonable cost and I'll change my mind. People in general greatly overestimate the value that one guy can bring for two months of play. And you're talking about relievers and bench guys. One of each probably wouldn't be worth a single win together for two months.


WAR isn't the sole measure of impact, my friend. Nor should it be.

Adding a back-end bullpen piece allows Clint Hurdle to give Watson more rest and has a trickle-down effect on the entire 'pen. Adding a solid bench bat, especially one with a niche skill (like crushing LHP), provides depth and insurance in case of injury. We can't, right now, on July 29th, quantify the value of these two potential additions, but we can say that they would likely improve the team. And that's the point.

I don't want to see Huntington trade the farm, but there are quite a few solid-to-good prospects who can be traded without making a large negative impact on the Pirates' future success. Improving the team now while responsibly steering the ship is the main priority. That doesn't mean only making a move if it makes a HUGE ripple; it means finding a fair deal and trying to improve the team, even incrementally.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:06 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
I'll go one step further. The entire National League is a crap shoot right now. I like the Dodgers and Nationals pitching, but their lineups aren't all that impressive. Other than that pitching advantage from those two teams I think you can throw a net around about 8 teams. The Bucs have a real shot to win this division. It could come down to who makes the best deals.


The team with the BEST record in the NL is the Dodgers, who have 47 losses. The Pirates have 49 losses.

So yeah, the NL is wide open. Even a little improvement -- even ONE more win -- could mean the difference between playoffs and no playoffs, or division title or wild card.

PirateParrot wrote:
The only top pitching prospect I would trade is Kingham, and it would have to be for the right deal. Maybe the steep asking prices come down as we get to the wire. I would get rid of Frieri before DFA Gomez if they acquire bullpen help.


I'd only include Kingham in a trade if it brought back a near-ace level pitcher with years of control left -- like Tyson Ross or something.

I think Frieri may have options left, so sending him to AAA may work.

PirateParrot wrote:
I have been a proponent of playing Pedro every day and hoping he gets hot. But with every poor throw I move closer to thinking maybe a trade to the AL, where he could DH, would be good for both parties. It may sweeten a deal enough to get something of value in return.


I don't think it's wise to trade Pedro at the nadir of his value. Let him hit some more and improve his numbers before maybe looking to move him in the off-season. That's the smart play.

PirateParrot wrote:
My final guess is they make a "minor" move for some bullpen help.


I could see that, but the only guys (in my view) who are good enough to really help are Joaquin Benoit and Andrew Miller, and the latter would cost a ton.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:07 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
My guess is that no deals will be made by the deadline because the asking prices I'm hearing are just plain ridiculous, and that backed up by the costs for the guys who have already been dealt, which were pretty close to ridiculous themselves. A post deadline deal for somebody who has cleared waivers might happen, though.

I'm not anxious to make a deal that gives up any decent prospect anyway. The Pirates right now are trying to win a chance to participate in a one game coin flip of a playoff. If you're going to give up top prospects, it has to be for a guy who you think will put you over the top for a championship, not a coin toss.

In any case, I wouldn't deal Glasnow for anybody in baseball right now. His upside is Nolan Ryan and it looks to me that his downside is a near All-Star, assuming good health. And as I always say, never give up anything of value for a bullpen guy.


The Pirates are only 2 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central division lead. With Molina and Wacha hurt, Votto and Phillips hurt, and the Brewers flagging, the Pirates have a good shot at winning the division. A boost to the bullpen and a nice bench bat could definitely help, provided the price is right.

I actually feel better about this team than last year's 94-win squad. The offense is MUCH better and the rotation is starting to come around. None of the Pirates' success this season seems fluky or lucky.

Name a guy who is worth a win a month who will come at a reasonable cost and I'll change my mind. People in general greatly overestimate the value that one guy can bring for two months of play. And you're talking about relievers and bench guys. One of each probably wouldn't be worth a single win together for two months.



I think it is a little misguided how wins are measured sometimes for individual players. Yes, individual production from a pair of players like this probably only net you 1 WAR at best. But there are greater impacts here than just their contributions. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Not to mention the guys being purged from the roster with upgrades like this are likely to have negative replacement value.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:34 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Here's an idea for an actual, realistic trade deadline deal to improve the Pirates:

* Padres trade Joaquin Benoit (solid right-handed bullpen arm) and Chris Denorfia (career .301 hitter with .810 OPS versus LHP) to the Pirates for Harold Ramirez and Adrian Sampson.

This would improve the bench and bullpen if the Pirates optioned Michael Martinez back to AAA and DFA'd Jeanmar Gomez to make room for Denorfia and Benoit. I'd probably use Benoit and Watson as 8th inning guys, Hughes and Wilson as 7th inning guys, and keep Melancon as the closer. I'd also start Denorfia against left-handed starters and use him liberally as a bench bat.

Just a thought.

The Pirates are not going to go with no backup shortstop. It's just not going to happen.


Bingo. They'll always have a backup middle infielder and a backup C. Those are non-negotiable, in the eyes of the front office (and backup C is pretty non-negotiable in general).

Any bats brought in will be to replace, in all likelihood, Snider or Davis (or Morel if there is some other injury along the way after Marte returns). Both of the guys specifically mentioned are non-tender candidates this offseason, I would think.

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 Post subject: Re: Official Trade Deadline Thread (2014)
PostPosted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:39 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Bingo. They'll always have a backup middle infielder and a backup C. Those are non-negotiable, in the eyes of the front office.

Any bats brought in will be to replace, in all likelihood, Snider or Davis (or Morel if there is some other injury along the way after Marte returns). Both of the guys specifically mentioned are non-tender candidates this offseason, I would think.


You could be right.

I'm thinking the Pirates' interest in Marlon Byrd and other corner outfielders may signal that Marte isn't coming back any time soon. If that's the case, in my scenario, Denorfia could take Morel's roster spot.


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