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 Post subject: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:45 am 
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Something to think about for those who think it would be a good idea to deal Pedro, because Josh Harrison could just step in and take his place:

Harrison's 2011 OPS: .656
Harrison's 2012 OPS: .624
Harrison's 2013 OPS: .699

This year:

March 31 through May 2: 24 ABs -- .208/.240/.375 -- .615
May 3 through June 17: 136 ABs -- .333/.377/.515 -- .891
June 18 through July 13: 89 ABs -- .258/.290/.371 -- .661

Now one of these things is not like the others.

The Pirates cannot trade Alvarez without getting a third baseman who is as good or better in return.

This year's numbers courtesy of the much maligned Bob Smizik.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/smiz ... z37dfHMX4h

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:31 am 
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That's a nice analysis and should cool the jets of those wanting to see J Hay turned into a regular. I think he fits just fine in the super-utility role.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't trade Alvarez. I would, for the right deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:47 pm 
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If the Pirates trade Alvarez, the most likely internal scenario for replacing him involves moving Neil Walker to third and playing Josh Harrison full-time at second base. Defensively, that's an improvement at two positions. Offensively, it's probably a downgrade.

While sisyphus has fun with arbitrary end points in his initial post, it's worth noting that Josh Harrison is 8th in Major League Baseball in hard-hit percentage at 23.5%. Sure, sometimes hits will fall and sometimes they will not, but J-Hay hits the ball HARD very often. He's also walking at a much higher rate this season. Basically, the Pirates could do a lot worse than J-Hay at second base.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:24 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
That's a nice analysis and should cool the jets of those wanting to see J Hay turned into a regular. I think he fits just fine in the super-utility role.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't trade Alvarez. I would, for the right deal.


It's amazing to me that people are so frustrated by Alvarez that they're willing to sell low just to get him out of town.

His wRC+ is already up to last year's level. Ride it out and deal him in the offseason if anything. Most likely people will be back to wanting him around by then, if the annual cycle holds.

I'm all for trading him, just don't do it when he's likely going to increase his value as the summer goes on.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:01 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
It's amazing to me that people are so frustrated by Alvarez that they're willing to sell low just to get him out of town.

His wRC+ is already up to last year's level. Ride it out and deal him in the offseason if anything. Most likely people will be back to wanting him around by then, if the annual cycle holds.

I'm all for trading him, just don't do it when he's likely going to increase his value as the summer goes on.

Well, he's a frustrating guy. ;)

But seriously, the trade-him-now trend(?) is mostly due to our perceived weaknesses and a desire to close the gap on the three (!) teams ahead of us. We all know that everyone else has injury issues of their own, and there doesn't seem to be a powerhouse in the division. Trading him out of season doesn't do anything to address the playoffs this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:18 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:

It's amazing to me that people are so frustrated by Alvarez that they're willing to sell low just to get him out of town.

His wRC+ is already up to last year's level. Ride it out and deal him in the offseason if anything. Most likely people will be back to wanting him around by then, if the annual cycle holds.


If this is so true, then it wouldn't BE trading at low value, now would it.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:52 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
That's a nice analysis and should cool the jets of those wanting to see J Hay turned into a regular. I think he fits just fine in the super-utility role.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't trade Alvarez. I would, for the right deal.


It's amazing to me that people are so frustrated by Alvarez that they're willing to sell low just to get him out of town.

His wRC+ is already up to last year's level. Ride it out and deal him in the offseason if anything. Most likely people will be back to wanting him around by then, if the annual cycle holds.

I'm all for trading him, just don't do it when he's likely going to increase his value as the summer goes on.


I actually agree with you on this Arch. Plus, his BB's are way up this year compared to 2013. Ride him out because he's going to get hot then trade him in the offseason at maximum value.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:58 pm 
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He is not a Free Agent until 2017.

Which means that we have him the rest of this year, next year (2015) and the year after (2016). Unless you get a substantial return I am all for keeping him at least through 2015.

I predict that at the conclusion of this season Harrisons numbers will be closer to where his career average is and Alvarez will have 30 home runs and 80 RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:03 pm 
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I'm not a numbers guy, my eyes see all. Trading him would be a mistake. He has control years left and he has potential to improve.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:35 pm 
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buccosfan77 wrote:
I'm not a numbers guy, my eyes see all.

Like most, I find myself evaluating players based upon a very few plays or at-bats because I "see" what the player does. The fallacy is believing that one can make a decision of a player based upon what we see, since we will be making that decision from the last few games - i.e., the very definition of small sample size.

Further, it is human nature to reward recent success and punish recent failure. That is the way we are built, psychologically. As a result, we put more emphasis on the past 10 or 20 games than can be justified. Again, small sample size flaw.

Billy Beane will not watch the games because he believes he will make decisions based on emotion in seeing what a player does. He prefers to rely on the larger data set. Pedro's numerous throws into the 3rd row would be an example of an ugly play that brings forth an overstated emotional reaction. (Most of us have a pretty strong reaction when Pedro unleashes one of his "fan killers.")

I agree that seeing the players can add a lot of value to a credible evaluation, particularly for pitchers who give up very soft hits that wind up as infield dribblers and bloopers, thereby leading to an ugly line despite the effective pitching.

But I also understand that relying on "what we see" tends to focuse a small number of plays over a short span of time. That is not the best way to judge a player, since baseball by its very nature has so much failure that emotions can override reason based upon such failures.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:33 pm 
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Trade him for a box of rocks - they might moved faster on 3rd

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:57 pm 
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Why does everyone want to trade him? His K's are down and his BB's are up. The power isn't there compared to last season, but he's in another "figuring it out" period. He could explode any day now. I agree, that as a whole, Pedro has been bad this year. Harrison as a starter will be a bust. He's a useful player, but he's not every day material unless you HAVE to start him every day. He's an asset and great depth, nothing more.

We have Pedro until 2017, there's no need to blame this entire season on him and then dump him because of it. In the off season, we can move him to first base. Walker to third, Harrison to second, whatever. The idea should be to increase his value, and see if we can win while he's here as opposed to moving away from him ASAP. By the time it does come to trade him, we could of doubled his value after a 40 HR season at first base.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:30 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:

It's amazing to me that people are so frustrated by Alvarez that they're willing to sell low just to get him out of town.

His wRC+ is already up to last year's level. Ride it out and deal him in the offseason if anything. Most likely people will be back to wanting him around by then, if the annual cycle holds.


If this is so true, then it wouldn't BE trading at low value, now would it.

ZM


It wouldn't be trading him at his lowest value, sure, but given his peripherals and how heavily April is still weighing into his season I think they could get a good deal more after the season without necessarily even selling high on him.

He's trending to be better than last year, given the increased contact and walks.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:56 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If the Pirates trade Alvarez, the most likely internal scenario for replacing him involves moving Neil Walker to third and playing Josh Harrison full-time at second base. Defensively, that's an improvement at two positions. Offensively, it's probably a downgrade.

While sisyphus has fun with arbitrary end points in his initial post, it's worth noting that Josh Harrison is 8th in Major League Baseball in hard-hit percentage at 23.5%. Sure, sometimes hits will fall and sometimes they will not, but J-Hay hits the ball HARD very often. He's also walking at a much higher rate this season. Basically, the Pirates could do a lot worse than J-Hay at second base.

I'm not saying that Harrison sucks, not at all. I'm saying that the jury should still be out on dealing Alvarez for a couple of reasons. One, all that Harrison has to show for himself is one hot month. And two, they have absolutely nothing behind Harrison for infield depth. That puts them one injury from disaster even if Harrison gets hot again. Any trade of Alvarez must get a solid infielder in return, and if it does, it's just a shuffling of deck chairs. I can't see the point of dealing Alvarez until the off season.

Loved your "arbitrary end points" reference. You think it's some debating trick to point out that a guy has had precisely one hot month to show for 840 plate appearances spanning three and a half seasons? Please.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:00 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
He is not a Free Agent until 2017.

Which means that we have him the rest of this year, next year (2015) and the year after (2016). Unless you get a substantial return I am all for keeping him at least through 2015.

I predict that at the conclusion of this season Harrisons numbers will be closer to where his career average is and Alvarez will have 30 home runs and 80 RBI.

I'm not as pessimistic as you are about Harrison, I think that there's a solid chance that his hitting has improved substantially. He hit well all through the minors, and more regular playing time could be just what he needed. I just don't think that's certain enough to bet the whole season on it.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:00 pm 
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Everyone is talking stats and such - it's easier than that for me - I don't like him.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:02 pm 
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LetsGoMarauders wrote:
Everyone is talking stats and such - it's easier than that for me - I don't like him.

Right, that's why it isn't necessary to take your opinion seriously in this case.

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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:01 pm 
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LetsGoMarauders wrote:
Everyone is talking stats and such - it's easier than that for me - I don't like him.


I can see that. I try not to judge people I don't know personally but sometimes when a person, in this case a ball player, shows little to know emotion some jump to conclusion. I personally don't care for his attitude, lack of fire after failure but some tend to be able to keep that in check. In Alvarez's case he usually has that aw shit look on his face. Hopefully he can grow into a player who's truly feared at the plate and can fix his throwing errors. Its not like there should be pressure on him. He's not asked to be the face of this franchise. That's already taken care of.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:05 pm 
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Buc fan, you misunderstood me. I see all. I suffer from a photographic and photogenic mind. Its a curse, it drives one crazy. You cant imagine. I don't need the statistical websites.


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 Post subject: Re: Trading Alvarez
PostPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2014 12:26 am 
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I am allowed to have my opinion and my opinion is that I don't like him.

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