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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:32 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
rks wrote:
The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.


Completely understood and not saying otherwise.

If the point of this thread was that Pedro has a better future (based on stats, specifically OPS) than Harrison, sure. Logical conclusion. It's not definite (because who knows?), but it's sound reasoning.

If it's that he had a better June, that's not proven by OPS (or any isolated stat).

I probably misunderstood the case being made here; my bad.

That wasn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that, despite all of the criticism of Alvarez for his hitting and all of the praise of Harrison for the same reason, Alvarez was the better hitter in June. Nothing to do with fielding, nothing to do with baserunning, and nothing to do with who was lucky enough to come up with runners in front of him late in close games. It's all about hitting in June. It's not a criticism of Harrison, it's a criticism of all of those who spend their time ripping Alvarez for his hitting.



Yeah - if this is cold, slumping Alvarez, then he has turned a huge corner.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:00 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
rks wrote:
The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.


Completely understood and not saying otherwise.

If the point of this thread was that Pedro has a better future (based on stats, specifically OPS) than Harrison, sure. Logical conclusion. It's not definite (because who knows?), but it's sound reasoning.

If it's that he had a better June, that's not proven by OPS (or any isolated stat).

I probably misunderstood the case being made here; my bad.

That wasn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that, despite all of the criticism of Alvarez for his hitting and all of the praise of Harrison for the same reason, Alvarez was the better hitter in June. Nothing to do with fielding, nothing to do with baserunning, and nothing to do with who was lucky enough to come up with runners in front of him late in close games. It's all about hitting in June. It's not a criticism of Harrison, it's a criticism of all of those who spend their time ripping Alvarez for his hitting.

Apparently Pirate management should be criticized because they aren't happy with his CONSISTENCY, which is what most here complain about. Comparing him to a utility guy is hilarious anyway. I'm pretty sure more should be expected from someone with Pedro's pedigree than that of a utility guy having his first real success. He definitely carries the team when he goes on a tear, but he hurts them a lot when he is cold. He hurts them by not being able to hit 4th...where he would be lucky enough to have guys on base and drive in runs. For the record I don't think he should be benched or traded, nor do I think Harrison should become the regular third baseman. I do think its fair to expect more consistency from Pedro at this point and for him to be able to hit cleanup.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:06 pm 
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The utility guy is an all-star hitting like, .300. It doesn't matter where a guy was drafted. Should we expect more from Neil Walker because he was drafted top 10?

A guy is what he is.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:08 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
That wasn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that, despite all of the criticism of Alvarez for his hitting and all of the praise of Harrison for the same reason, Alvarez was the better hitter in June. Nothing to do with fielding, nothing to do with baserunning, and nothing to do with who was lucky enough to come up with runners in front of him late in close games. It's all about hitting in June. It's not a criticism of Harrison, it's a criticism of all of those who spend their time ripping Alvarez for his hitting.


I'm not sure he was (at least by all aspects of the definition of 'better' and/or all interpretations of a complex game such as baseball). "In a vacuum" and by an isolated stat such as OPS he was (by approx. 6.4%), but the game is not played and/or judged by that alone.

He had the better OPS, but I don't think that contribution mattered more to the Pirates overall performance (that the hits/walks accumulated meant anything in the 'bigger picture').

Just because one player had a better OPS than another, it doesn't automatically make them better by all measures.

Since we're tossing stats out there though, here's one from BR.com:

WPA (June):
Alvarez: 0.591
Harrison: 1.169

So who had the better June? :?:

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:47 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
The utility guy is an all-star hitting like, .300. It doesn't matter where a guy was drafted. Should we expect more from Neil Walker because he was drafted top 10?

A guy is what he is.

It depends on who is drafting. I give you Dave Littlefield and Moskos. But yea, that's what expectations are. Apparently the Pirates feel the same way. You expect more from your stars than your utility guys. You expect more from Lebron than the first guy off the bench. So my expectations for Pedro are far more than Harrison...


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:40 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Since we're tossing stats out there though, here's one from BR.com:
WPA (June):
Alvarez: 0.591
Harrison: 1.169

So who had the better June? :?:

It's a reasonable question. How do you define better? I would agree that Harrison contributed more to Pirate wins in June. But if they replayed June and both players got the same OPS again, Pedro would probably have the higher WPA. That's the value of predictive stats -- they predict performance in stats like RBIs, runs better than RBIs and runs themselves. It's like run differentials predict future wins better than current wins do.

BTW, here's a quote from fangraphs on WPA (link).

Quote:
Cumulatively, season-long WPA is not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent. However, it is a good describer of what happened in the game and how a win was achieved


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:54 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Apparently Pirate management should be criticized because they aren't happy with his CONSISTENCY, which is what most here complain about. Comparing him to a utility guy is hilarious anyway. I'm pretty sure more should be expected from someone with Pedro's pedigree than that of a utility guy having his first real success. He definitely carries the team when he goes on a tear, but he hurts them a lot when he is cold. He hurts them by not being able to hit 4th...where he would be lucky enough to have guys on base and drive in runs. For the record I don't think he should be benched or traded, nor do I think Harrison should become the regular third baseman. I do think its fair to expect more consistency from Pedro at this point and for him to be able to hit cleanup.

I don't think you can expect more from Pedro at this point. He actually has been pretty consistent for the last 3 years -- high K, big power, ~.770 OPS guy. It's down a little bit this year, but a few homers and he's back up to it. He still may improve, and the lower K rate and higher walk rate this year are encouraging. But expect is too strong. Hope? Sure. And if I'm being honest, I still secretly expect him to get better. But I know that's emotion.

Pedigree is useful when you don't have a track record. Pedro has a track record, so I think it's better to set your expectations to that, and not his draft position.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:59 am 
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As of today Pedro ranks

#2 in HR and #4 in RBI by NL 3rd Baseman.

#3 in HR and #7 in RBI by MLB 3rd Baseman.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 11:58 am 
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rellimie wrote:
As of today Pedro ranks

#2 in HR and #4 in RBI by NL 3rd Baseman.

#3 in HR and #7 in RBI by MLB 3rd Baseman.


And #1 in Pirates scrutinized. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:01 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
That wasn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that, despite all of the criticism of Alvarez for his hitting and all of the praise of Harrison for the same reason, Alvarez was the better hitter in June. Nothing to do with fielding, nothing to do with baserunning, and nothing to do with who was lucky enough to come up with runners in front of him late in close games. It's all about hitting in June. It's not a criticism of Harrison, it's a criticism of all of those who spend their time ripping Alvarez for his hitting.


I'm not sure he was (at least by all aspects of the definition of 'better' and/or all interpretations of a complex game such as baseball). "In a vacuum" and by an isolated stat such as OPS he was (by approx. 6.4%), but the game is not played and/or judged by that alone.

He had the better OPS, but I don't think that contribution mattered more to the Pirates overall performance (that the hits/walks accumulated meant anything in the 'bigger picture').

Just because one player had a better OPS than another, it doesn't automatically make them better by all measures.

Since we're tossing stats out there though, here's one from BR.com:

WPA (June):
Alvarez: 0.591
Harrison: 1.169

So who had the better June? :?:

Keep on trying to change the subject.

Alvarez hit better in June than Harrison did.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:07 pm 
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rks wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Since we're tossing stats out there though, here's one from BR.com:
WPA (June):
Alvarez: 0.591
Harrison: 1.169

So who had the better June? :?:

It's a reasonable question. How do you define better? I would agree that Harrison contributed more to Pirate wins in June. But if they replayed June and both players got the same OPS again, Pedro would probably have the higher WPA. That's the value of predictive stats -- they predict performance in stats like RBIs, runs better than RBIs and runs themselves. It's like run differentials predict future wins better than current wins do.

BTW, here's a quote from fangraphs on WPA (link).

Quote:
Cumulatively, season-long WPA is not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent. However, it is a good describer of what happened in the game and how a win was achieved


You're absolutely right about the predictive vs. actual comparison. OPS is a better indicator of future performance (or overall talent level), especially in larger sample sizes.

But if someone is going to use OPS and OPS alone (or at least as the primary stat) to declare player X better than player Y---especially during a specific time period---then I will disagree and/or scrutinize.

Is Pedro a better player than Harrison? Probably (or at least statistically).

Did Pedro have a 'better' June than Harrison? I don't know. I can see cases made either way, based on a variety of factors/stats.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:11 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Keep on trying to change the subject.

Alvarez hit better in June than Harrison did.


You've swayed me.

In the game of baseball, only one stat matters. Everything else is OPSolete.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:16 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
rks wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Since we're tossing stats out there though, here's one from BR.com:
WPA (June):
Alvarez: 0.591
Harrison: 1.169

So who had the better June? :?:

It's a reasonable question. How do you define better? I would agree that Harrison contributed more to Pirate wins in June. But if they replayed June and both players got the same OPS again, Pedro would probably have the higher WPA. That's the value of predictive stats -- they predict performance in stats like RBIs, runs better than RBIs and runs themselves. It's like run differentials predict future wins better than current wins do.

BTW, here's a quote from fangraphs on WPA (link).

Quote:
Cumulatively, season-long WPA is not predictive, making it an ineffective number for projections of a player’s talent. However, it is a good describer of what happened in the game and how a win was achieved


You're absolutely right about the predictive vs. actual comparison. OPS is a better indicator of future performance (or overall talent level), especially in larger sample sizes.

But if someone is going to use OPS and OPS alone (or at least as the primary stat) to declare player X better than player Y---especially during a specific time period---then I will disagree and/or scrutinize.

Is Pedro a better player than Harrison? Probably (or at least statistically).

Did Pedro have a 'better' June than Harrison? I don't know. I can see cases made either way, based on a variety of factors/stats.

I didn't use OPS to declare that Pedro was a better player than J-Hay, but go ahead and continue making up stuff, it's makes it much easier for you to form your argument.

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