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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:55 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
You didn't get the memo. Contributions are meaningless unless they come in the form of the ball going over the fence.


I'm not sure I received that memo either.

In going through the memos that I've received which appear to be designed to educate those of us who aren't as enlightened or possess less intelligence about the game, I came across two of interest.

The first was the WAR memo which touts a statistic that is supposedly designed to give a full picture of a player's contributions. So . . . In light of that memo, I checked FanGraphs (because that appears to be THE Holy Grail of real baseball evaluations) and see that Harrison put up a higher WAR than Alvarez in June.

The second memo that I found was the "small sample size" memo which openly mocked those for using small sample sizes to reach conclusions. So ... In light of that memo, I looked at WAR for the year, wRC+ for the year - because, you know, I'm told that those are the stats that really matter - and see that Harrison has outperformed Alvarez over the nearly 100 games played.

Thus, I'm confused. If Harrison has outperformed Alvarez in a large sample size by the eye test, the gut feeling test and by WAR and wRC+, then why exactly are the commoners being mocked by references to some fictitious SCRAP factor or wanting the Pirates' slugging third baseman to hit more homers and drive in more runs?

My inferior mind can't seem to grasp these issues. I'm left to conclude that there is some selective use of stats to remind us of our inferior ability to understand what is really and truly important. Maybe I need another memo ....... If thoise in the know can save "players and managers" from their inferior abilities, surely we can be saved as well.



You can say Harrison has outperformed Alvarez and you are probably right. However, if you can find me the thread where people are saying "well it appears Harrison has outperformed Alvarez this year", I'll show you 5 that say "ALVAREZ SUCKS! TRADE HIM OR SEND HIM TO THE MINORS! Harrison has provided the heart that this team needed!". THAT is the point, or at least my point.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:46 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
I'm not sure I received that memo either.

In going through the memos that I've received which appear to be designed to educate those of us who aren't as enlightened or possess less intelligence about the game, I came across two of interest.


... yet another pointless, tedious example where you respond to an extremely short bit I write that has nothing to do with Sabermetrics and respond with an accusatory stream of consciousness about Sabermetrics.

Haven't we been over this before? Kindly stop putting words in my mouth by taking everything I say out of context, please. I'm pretty sure everyone knew exactly the point I was conveying besides you, as demonstrated by the APE response above. It has nothing to do with a comparison of Alvarez and Harrison by any metrics, I wasn't the one who brought that up. It was a very simple counterpoint to the loads of comments that Alvarez has been flat out terrible for the past month simply because the power was down when that isn't the case. I'm very sorry for defending him as a player in that regard! The much more mature thing would have just been to let those inaccurate comments fly. Oh, the horror of a good-natured sarcastic jab such as "you didn't get the memo?" That's the comment of pure evil, a bully out to belittle others. Surely such comments don't happen here about daily. Let alone you take exception with, for example, another boarder posting something like "Please don't make me explain yet again how asinine it is to rank hitters by RBI totals." It's that bully TheShark up to his old tricks.

Your obsession with thinking every single comment I make has some hidden Saber-agenda behind it that is out to belittle others is extremely tiresome. I don't think I'm better than anyone here and I'm sorry you're so offended by people taking opinions you don't agree with or perceive as something they're not.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:53 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
You didn't get the memo. Contributions are meaningless unless they come in the form of the ball going over the fence.


I'm not sure I received that memo either.

In going through the memos that I've received which appear to be designed to educate those of us who aren't as enlightened or possess less intelligence about the game, I came across two of interest.

The first was the WAR memo which touts a statistic that is supposedly designed to give a full picture of a player's contributions. So . . . In light of that memo, I checked FanGraphs (because that appears to be THE Holy Grail of real baseball evaluations) and see that Harrison put up a higher WAR than Alvarez in June.

The second memo that I found was the "small sample size" memo which openly mocked those for using small sample sizes to reach conclusions. So ... In light of that memo, I looked at WAR for the year, wRC+ for the year - because, you know, I'm told that those are the stats that really matter - and see that Harrison has outperformed Alvarez over the nearly 100 games played.

Thus, I'm confused. If Harrison has outperformed Alvarez in a large sample size by the eye test, the gut feeling test and by WAR and wRC+, then why exactly are the commoners being mocked by references to some fictitious SCRAP factor or wanting the Pirates' slugging third baseman to hit more homers and drive in more runs?

My inferior mind can't seem to grasp these issues. I'm left to conclude that there is some selective use of stats to remind us of our inferior ability to understand what is really and truly important. Maybe I need another memo ....... If thoise in the know can save "players and managers" from their inferior abilities, surely we can be saved as well.

WAR has nothing to do with the number I listed, because I was focused only on hitting. Also, you'll rarely hear a good word about WAR from me, because I have serious problems with the defensive side of the equation.

All I was trying to do was point out, in the face of all of the "Alvarez can't hit" crap I've been reading here and elsewhere, that Alvarez had a better June at the plate that Harrison, and I did that because if you asked 100 Pirate fans which of the two hit better in June, a pretty big majority would give you the wrong answer. If you're afraid of sample size, compare their career numbers. We're comparing a guy with two 30 HR season to a guy with two hot months in the major leagues.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:20 pm 
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TheShark wrote:

... yet another pointless, tedious example where you respond to an extremely short bit I write that has nothing to do with Sabermetrics and respond with an accusatory stream of consciousness about Sabermetrics.

Haven't we been over this before? Kindly stop putting words in my mouth by taking everything I say out of context, please. I'm pretty sure everyone knew exactly the point I was conveying besides you, as demonstrated by the APE response above. It has nothing to do with a comparison of Alvarez and Harrison by any metrics, I wasn't the one who brought that up. It was a very simple counterpoint to the loads of comments that Alvarez has been flat out terrible for the past month simply because the power was down when that isn't the case. I'm very sorry for defending him as a player in that regard! The much more mature thing would have just been to let those inaccurate comments fly. Oh, the horror of a good-natured sarcastic jab such as "you didn't get the memo?" That's the comment of pure evil, a bully out to belittle others. Surely such comments don't happen here about daily. Let alone you take exception with, for example, another boarder posting something like "Please don't make me explain yet again how asinine it is to rank hitters by RBI totals." It's that bully TheShark up to his old tricks.

Your obsession with thinking every single comment I make has some hidden Saber-agenda behind it that is out to belittle others is extremely tiresome. I don't think I'm better than anyone here and I'm sorry you're so offended by people taking opinions you don't agree with or perceive as something they're not.


You are quite adept at dishing snark at others on this Board but bristle when it is directed at you. There is a difference between articulating an opinion in a manner which advocates a position and articulating an opinion that is derisive and belittling. You rarely do the former and seem to thrive on the latter.

In my opinion, your belief that I am somehow obsessed with your posts is quite telling. I've got way too many other important things going on in my life to give you or your posts any thought other than when I visit this place to read other's posts and comments. I don't sit up late at night thinking of ways to respond to your posts. Never have and never will. Guaranteed.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:41 pm 
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In fairness to both Alvarez and Harrison, a lot of Jay Hay's WAR value came at 2B in June which is a lower standard position than any other.

WAR is more of a value thing than a "this is a better player" stat in terms of just raw ability.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:10 pm 
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I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:37 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
You are quite adept at dishing snark at others on this Board but bristle when it is directed at you.


Maybe that's because you're "dishing snark" at me for no reason but something you made up. I'm not going to rehash everything I just said. You went off on a tangent that had nothing to do with what I even said, which has happened more than once in order for you to cast a character assassination on me based on your thoughts on Sabermetrics and some false attitude you think I have regarding them. Disagreements rarely even happen with people other than yourself, because you seem to get so testy about it, and like to jump in even when my comments are directed at someone else and they don't seem to have an issue with it. I very clearly made nothing more than a small reference to the fact that there are fans who have said Alvarez has been terrible when that objectively isn't true unless you think OBP is a controversial advanced metric. It has nothing to do with WAR or wRC+, that's what you chose to bring up completely void of context. I wasn't even comparing him to Harrison, which you then spent an entire paragraph doing with all of the ridiculous Snark Police, "oh teach me master" BS.

Nice copout by taking the "obsession" comment literally. You clearly think I have a certain way about my posting that you dislike and are offended by as evidenced by your previous paragraph and several other examples in the past. And it's quite evident that it's to do with the issues you have with Sabermetrics and wanting to put the messenger in his place when he voices an opinion you dislike. It's why you picked out what I said to use an example of "snark", yet, again, sisy's comment would have been a bigger culprit for such.

If you think I "strive off of snark" you simply don't pay attention to 99% of my posts, and it's ridiculous that I would have to defend myself regarding such a comment.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:02 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

Exactly.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:06 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

Yep, they started keeping track of game winning hits some years ago. After a few years, they noticed something. Hitters would rank near the top of the league one your, then the bottom the next, and vice versa, quite often. The reason for this it that getting game winning hits is not a repeatable skill. So they still keep track of them, but nobody pays attention to the results any more.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 10:47 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

Yep, they started keeping track of game winning hits some years ago. After a few years, they noticed something. Hitters would rank near the top of the league one your, then the bottom the next, and vice versa, quite often. The reason for this it that getting game winning hits is not a repeatable skill. So they still keep track of them, but nobody pays attention to the results any more.


I'm not saying it's a skill. I'm saying that for the month of June I believe Harrison had more GW hits.

So the 'Pedro had a better OPS' case is sort of... *shrugs*

Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.

This is my hypothesis, at least. I don't know where to pull the 'GW hit' stat.

EDIT: Going through box scores, thus far I have three GW his for JW: June 19th, 21st and 22nd. I'm not looking through games where the Bucs won by 3+ runs though.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:02 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

Yep, they started keeping track of game winning hits some years ago. After a few years, they noticed something. Hitters would rank near the top of the league one your, then the bottom the next, and vice versa, quite often. The reason for this it that getting game winning hits is not a repeatable skill. So they still keep track of them, but nobody pays attention to the results any more.


I'm not saying it's a skill. I'm saying that for the month of June I believe Harrison had more GW hits.

So the 'Pedro had a better OPS' case is sort of... *shrugs*

Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.

This is my hypothesis, at least. I don't know where to pull the 'GW hit' stat.


Harrison has had a fantastic month for who he is. And yes, probably better than Pedro. I posted Pedro's numbers to show that he has not sucked in June. I listed to the radio callers and see the posts on these forums about how he needs benched and Harrison should be starting and blah blah blah.

The Reality of it is Pedro is struggling to hit the long ball and the Pedro of last year would have pressed and been impatient and possibly be over 100 K's by now. Pedro of 2014 has made great strides as a hitter and during this power outage he has worked on drawing walks, getting base hits and doing some small things at the plate so that he isn't such a black hole during his cold spells. Anyone who things that Pedro won't heat up at some point (and I think soon) is crazy. We should be praising him as a hitter for not being an automatic out when he isn't on a hot streak.

That being said, he has struggled a bit in the field but he really isn't that much worse than last year. A lot of those throws are just like last years and inches away from being snagged by the 1st baseman. It's a fine line between a throwing error and a great scoop by Ike/Gabby. I don't see anything really worse than last year. Just seems worse because of the HR drought.

Under no circumstance though do I think Harrison should takeover at 3B for Pedro though, Pedro is still the better player in the long term. Harrison loses his value once he is starting at 1 position.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:12 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.


Someone has to be on base in order for those GW hits to happen, though. It's the old argument of "why do people value the RBI but don't really care about actual R totals". Obviously the exception if HRs, but I don't recall Harrison hitting any of those.

It doesn't actually matter to me who was better in June, I just take exception with people diminishing Alvarez's month because of where he hit in the line-up (which is arbitrary in that it's his manager's control, not his own) or because it was OBP-based relative to what he's "supposed" to be doing because of his draft order or projections. I'm guilty of using OPS a little too often because it's a nice baseline stat that gives you an overall impression, but it's obviously very flawed in it's valuing of OBP and SLG equally (when OBP is a fair percentage more significant). OPS+ is obviously better at normalizing the true number. If I was really looking into who was objectively "better" for the month I'd look to wOBA (created by Tom Tango in his excellent book "Playing the Percentages" that I highly recommend) which sets to solves the OPS inbalance, and wRC+. The reality is that they were both very good players in June.


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:14 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
I posted Pedro's numbers to show that he has not sucked in June. I listed to the radio callers and see the posts on these forums about how he needs benched and Harrison should be starting and blah blah blah.


I don't think Pedro sucks. I think his contributions have felt mostly... 'inconsequential'.

BR.com has 'Dro at 1.6 WAR. Seems about right. He's an acceptable 3B.

They also have JH at 2.3 WAR.

I'm not going to question either of those numbers, but what I will say is that that 2.3 has been felt; and, at least by me, a whole hell of a lot more than that 1.6.

That sort of 'hype', that feeling that one guy is doing something while/that another isn't, is going to lead some of the general public to clamor for Harrison.

I rather like the fact that the Pirates have an excess of talent for a change. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:33 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.


Someone has to be on base in order for those GW hits to happen, though. It's the old argument of "why do people value the RBI but don't really care about actual R totals". Obviously the exception if HRs, but I don't recall Harrison hitting any of those.

It doesn't actually matter to me who was better in June, I just take exception with people diminishing Alvarez's month because of where he hit in the line-up (which is arbitrary in that it's his manager's control, not his own) or because it was OBP-based relative to what he's "supposed" to be doing because of his draft order or projections. I'm guilty of using OPS a little too often because it's a nice baseline stat that gives you an overall impression, but it's obviously very flawed in it's valuing of OBP and SLG equally (when OBP is a fair percentage more significant). OPS+ is obviously better at normalizing the true number. If I was really looking into who was objectively "better" for the month I'd look to wOBA (created by Tom Tango in his excellent book "Playing the Percentages" that I highly recommend) which sets to solves the OPS inbalance, and wRC+. The reality is that they were both very good players in June.


Of course I don't think Harrison won the games all by his lonesome.

But he literally was the deciding factor in three games in one week. He brought home the winning run(s). Not by some arbitrary or convoluted stat, but literally. Game on the line or in doubt. Decisive hit. Josh Harrison. Thrice.

I'm not saying Pedro didn't contribute to any wins in June in his own way(s). You can't blame people for paying more attention to J-Hay though since he directly and literally won three games in a week. People are going to notice that.

No game recap is going to read, 'Pirates 7, Cubs 3. Pedro Alvarez had a hit and a walk, to raise his OPS for June to .873 and lower his K/BB ratio.' It's going to read, 'Andrew McCutchen went 2-3 with a HR and 3 RBI. Gregory Polanco went 3-4 and scored twice. Gerrit Cole pitched seven innings, limiting the Cubs to a lone run on four hits.'

I get the big[ger] picture, really. Tortoise vs. Hare. While it's nice that the Tortoise eventually catches the Hare, doesn't the fact that the Hare led for the majority of the race matter?

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 11:56 pm 
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The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.

My take on it is this:
* It is perfectly reasonable to praise players for past _results_, like runs, big RBIs, clutch hits, etc.
* If I were a manager, I would ignore the above when filling out my lineup card, in favor of predictive stats like OPS. Because that's what's most likely to give my team more runs in the future.

JHay's been great. I'm happy for him, and I hope he continues to play well. He's had some spectacular, high impact plays, and deserves the love he's getting. But the totality of stats suggests that Pedro will be the more effective 3B player in the future, so that's who I'd play.

(But I absolutely would continue to get Josh ABs to see if he can sustain what he's doing)


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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 2:23 am 
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rks wrote:
The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.


I agree. I wish you well, my friend.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:39 am 
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rks wrote:
The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.


Completely understood and not saying otherwise.

If the point of this thread was that Pedro has a better future (based on stats, specifically OPS) than Harrison, sure. Logical conclusion. It's not definite (because who knows?), but it's sound reasoning.

If it's that he had a better June, that's not proven by OPS (or any isolated stat).

I probably misunderstood the case being made here; my bad.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:16 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
I'm going strictly off of memory here, but didn't J-Hay also have a few GW hits in June?

How many did Pedro have?

Do statisticians even track 'GW hits'?

Pedro had a fine June. It was pretty invisible though. That will happen when you bat 6th/7th.

Yep, they started keeping track of game winning hits some years ago. After a few years, they noticed something. Hitters would rank near the top of the league one your, then the bottom the next, and vice versa, quite often. The reason for this it that getting game winning hits is not a repeatable skill. So they still keep track of them, but nobody pays attention to the results any more.


I'm not saying it's a skill. I'm saying that for the month of June I believe Harrison had more GW hits.

Right, and how about the price of eggs in China? Has almost as much to do with the comparison.

Quote:
So the 'Pedro had a better OPS' case is sort of... *shrugs*

Sort of evidence that Perdo hit better than Harrison, as opposed to your irrelevant number.

Quote:
Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.

No, because accumulating GWRBI is not a skill.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:21 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
TheShark wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Harrison's close proximity to Pedro's OPS + GW hits makes his month of June better.


Someone has to be on base in order for those GW hits to happen, though. It's the old argument of "why do people value the RBI but don't really care about actual R totals". Obviously the exception if HRs, but I don't recall Harrison hitting any of those.

It doesn't actually matter to me who was better in June, I just take exception with people diminishing Alvarez's month because of where he hit in the line-up (which is arbitrary in that it's his manager's control, not his own) or because it was OBP-based relative to what he's "supposed" to be doing because of his draft order or projections. I'm guilty of using OPS a little too often because it's a nice baseline stat that gives you an overall impression, but it's obviously very flawed in it's valuing of OBP and SLG equally (when OBP is a fair percentage more significant). OPS+ is obviously better at normalizing the true number. If I was really looking into who was objectively "better" for the month I'd look to wOBA (created by Tom Tango in his excellent book "Playing the Percentages" that I highly recommend) which sets to solves the OPS inbalance, and wRC+. The reality is that they were both very good players in June.


Of course I don't think Harrison won the games all by his lonesome.

But he literally was the deciding factor in three games in one week. He brought home the winning run(s). Not by some arbitrary or convoluted stat, but literally. Game on the line or in doubt. Decisive hit. Josh Harrison. Thrice.

I'm not saying Pedro didn't contribute to any wins in June in his own way(s). You can't blame people for paying more attention to J-Hay though since he directly and literally won three games in a week. People are going to notice that.

No game recap is going to read, 'Pirates 7, Cubs 3. Pedro Alvarez had a hit and a walk, to raise his OPS for June to .873 and lower his K/BB ratio.' It's going to read, 'Andrew McCutchen went 2-3 with a HR and 3 RBI. Gregory Polanco went 3-4 and scored twice. Gerrit Cole pitched seven innings, limiting the Cubs to a lone run on four hits.'

I get the big[ger] picture, really. Tortoise vs. Hare. While it's nice that the Tortoise eventually catches the Hare, doesn't the fact that the Hare led for the majority of the race matter?

The guy who drives in the winning run is no more the deciding factor in a ballgame than the guy who scored the run, the pitchers who kept runs off of the board, every other guy who scored or drove in a run, or anybody who made nice defensive plays.

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 Post subject: Re: Some June Numbers
PostPosted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:27 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
rks wrote:
The reason stats-inclined folks look more at OPS than game-winning hits is because:

1) Game-winning, clutch hits have been found to be random. The do not predict the player will be clutch in the future.
2) Stats like OPS do predict future success (including big hits), and are correlated with run production.


Completely understood and not saying otherwise.

If the point of this thread was that Pedro has a better future (based on stats, specifically OPS) than Harrison, sure. Logical conclusion. It's not definite (because who knows?), but it's sound reasoning.

If it's that he had a better June, that's not proven by OPS (or any isolated stat).

I probably misunderstood the case being made here; my bad.

That wasn't the point of the thread. The point of the thread is that, despite all of the criticism of Alvarez for his hitting and all of the praise of Harrison for the same reason, Alvarez was the better hitter in June. Nothing to do with fielding, nothing to do with baserunning, and nothing to do with who was lucky enough to come up with runners in front of him late in close games. It's all about hitting in June. It's not a criticism of Harrison, it's a criticism of all of those who spend their time ripping Alvarez for his hitting.

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