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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:08 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
If we believe it's fixable, why the rush to trade him? He's been great with the glove this season.

The glove - yes.

The arm - no. Not good. Not even bad. His throwing has been horrible, accounting for 17 throwing errors in barely more than 1/2 a season.

Further, there is no "rush" to trade him. His value is much better this year than next due to years of control. If you wait until the July before his free agency, good luck getting fair return for him.

He is not going to re-sign with the Pirates. The HR potential will get him a $75 million contract. The Pirates are not going to pay him that much.

So the choices are:

(1) Let him play out his contract and get a draft pick in return.
(2) Deal him next year, where his value has declined.
(3) Deal him now, and get as good a return as possible, and in return get a solid starting pitcher who bolsters the rotation for a good team.

I say go with #3, and that option is NOT predicated on "hating Pedro" or anything of that nature; it is based solely on player value and return.


I'm not agreeing with this at all. You don't know that he won't re-sign with the Pirates, and you don't know that he's going to get a $75 million contract. And I don't agree that his value is at his highest right now.

We need Pedro more than we need another starter. And if he puts up the kind of second half he usually does, he will be worth more this off-season than he is now.



I have to agree with Ralphie. I think Pedro is more important right now than a starter. He just needs to start guessing more at the plate. Reggie Smith once told me that the year he started just flat out guessing at the plate is when his overall numbers jumped up 20%. You know after one strike all they're going to throw Pedro is off speed, so he needs to just sit on off speed and nothing else. He's trying to see the spin on every pitch and react and that is what's getting him into trouble.


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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Tue Jul 08, 2014 7:20 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
I'm not agreeing with this at all. You don't know that he won't re-sign with the Pirates, and you don't know that he's going to get a $75 million contract.

(1) Scott Boras + (2) home runs by a position player = play out contract, get offered 5 years, $75 million.

He will be 29 years old when he hits free agency, and 30 years old at the start of the 2017 season. If he signs for less than 5 years, I would be surprised. Russell Martin will be a 31-year old catcher next year, and I doubt he signs for less than 3 years.

Any plan that envisions re-signing a home run hitting Boras client who is a free agent is not a good plan.


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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:58 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I have no problem with trading him, but it has to be for somebody who would make a significant improvement to the team, because the team becomes a helluva lot weaker if Pedro goes.

As you note, that depends on whom the Pirates get in return. I think most GM's have a favorable view of Pedro, and several realize that a 30 HR 3rd baseman with several years of control left is a tough find in today's game, so the Pirates should get a legitimate starting pitcher in return.

If the offer is for a lower tier SP'er, then pass.

The thing is, they already have a lot of starting pitchers, so many that I'm thanking god that I'm not the one who has to decide what to do once Liriano and Cole are both back.

I doubt that anyone would cough up somebody as good as Cole, Morton or Liriano, and anything below that is not an improvement, it's just more depth at AAA.

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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:02 am 
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mjdouble wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
The reason why Walker is a plus player and gives positive WAR is because his hitting is so good for a 2nd baseman.

If you move him to 1st base, he becomes a below-average hitter for the position.

If you want to make a move with Walker, then put him at 3B, where he would be an elite defender (similar to Carpenter), and his bat would still be competitive.

Deal Pedro for a legit starting pitcher.

Move Harrison and possibly Hanson by 2016 to 2B.

Now, you have a good fielding 3rd baseman, a good fielding SS (Mercer is above average), a good fielding 2nd baseman (Harrison is a good-not-great defender at the position), and a decent platoon at 1B. The infield will hit enough, particularly if Harrison can hit .280/.335/.450 with 50 XBH's and 20 SB's, and Mercer hits like he has for the past 2 months.

Plus, you have a legit arm in the rotation to join Cole, Morton, Locke and a number 5 next year, with Kingham and Taillon on the way.


If it makes the team better what does it matter if Walker is just league avg for a 1B? He offers more than what the Pirates have been able to get from the position with a platoon.

2014 - Walker .775 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .718 OPS, League avg 1B .762 OPS
2013 - Walker .757 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .726 OPS, League avg 1B .762 OPS
2012 - Walker .768 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .742 OPS, League avg 1B .767 OPS
2011 - Walker .742 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .715 OPS, League avg 1B .778 OPS

The question is what would produce more....Walker and Jhay or Walker and a 1B Platoon?

My money would go with Walker and the platoon, and that doesn't even take defense into consideration, which tilts it even further in that direction.

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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 1:08 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
I'm not agreeing with this at all. You don't know that he won't re-sign with the Pirates, and you don't know that he's going to get a $75 million contract.

(1) Scott Boras + (2) home runs by a position player = play out contract, get offered 5 years, $75 million.

He will be 29 years old when he hits free agency, and 30 years old at the start of the 2017 season. If he signs for less than 5 years, I would be surprised. Russell Martin will be a 31-year old catcher next year, and I doubt he signs for less than 3 years.

Any plan that envisions re-signing a home run hitting Boras client who is a free agent is not a good plan.

One other point that I forgot to make: If you deal Pedro for a pitcher, the Harrison has to keep his OPS within shouting range of .800 for the rest of the year, and the Pirates cannot suffer single infield injury, because there is nothing behind Walker, Mercer and Harrison.

I can see see Pedro getting dealt in the off season a lot easier than during the season.

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 Post subject: Re: Outside the Box
PostPosted: Wed Jul 09, 2014 9:52 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
The reason why Walker is a plus player and gives positive WAR is because his hitting is so good for a 2nd baseman.

If you move him to 1st base, he becomes a below-average hitter for the position.

If you want to make a move with Walker, then put him at 3B, where he would be an elite defender (similar to Carpenter), and his bat would still be competitive.

Deal Pedro for a legit starting pitcher.

Move Harrison and possibly Hanson by 2016 to 2B.

Now, you have a good fielding 3rd baseman, a good fielding SS (Mercer is above average), a good fielding 2nd baseman (Harrison is a good-not-great defender at the position), and a decent platoon at 1B. The infield will hit enough, particularly if Harrison can hit .280/.335/.450 with 50 XBH's and 20 SB's, and Mercer hits like he has for the past 2 months.

Plus, you have a legit arm in the rotation to join Cole, Morton, Locke and a number 5 next year, with Kingham and Taillon on the way.


If it makes the team better what does it matter if Walker is just league avg for a 1B? He offers more than what the Pirates have been able to get from the position with a platoon.

2014 - Walker .775 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .718 OPS, League avg 1B .762 OPS
2013 - Walker .757 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .726 OPS, League avg 1B .762 OPS
2012 - Walker .768 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .742 OPS, League avg 1B .767 OPS
2011 - Walker .742 OPS , Pirate 1Bs Combined .715 OPS, League avg 1B .778 OPS

The question is what would produce more....Walker and Jhay or Walker and a 1B Platoon?

My money would go with Walker and the platoon, and that doesn't even take defense into consideration, which tilts it even further in that direction.


I get not believing in JHay's bat long term. But I think he is better defensively than Walker and I think Walker would play solid defense at 1B. So I disagree with you about the defense tilting it even further. Currently the Pirates defense on the right side of the infield is not very good.


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