Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:39 am

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 51 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:12 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:06 pm
Posts: 1583
Hey, I remember people screaming that we should have traded Marte for Upton, back in 2011, to solidify that team for a playoff run.

That team. :o :o


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 11:17 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 12:20 am
Posts: 44
I wouldn't be happy if I were an A's fan. I think people overvalue the return on "going for it", especially in baseball. Baseball playoffs are very random -- you just have to make it and anything can happen. The A's were already well on track to make the playoffs.

And so I would rather build a team that consistently makes the playoffs than one that occasionally is stacked, but then has to rebuild. That doesn't mean that there's never a good time to improve the team. I think what NH did last year was smart, because he improved the chances of the team to make the playoffs with Morneau/Byrd, at a reasonable cost.

Put another way, IMO the A's chances of winning the WS this year did not go up as much as their chances of winning it in the future went down.

Disclaimer: I don't actually know much about the trade -- I'm just reacting to the soundbites I've heard. If the A's aren't actually mortgaging their future, I retract my claims. Also, claiming that it's impossible to consistently field a playoff caliber-team in a small market city via the draft is plausible, in which case boom/bust strategies are more defensible.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
rks wrote:
I wouldn't be happy if I were an A's fan. I think people overvalue the return on "going for it", especially in baseball. Baseball playoffs are very random -- you just have to make it and anything can happen. The A's were already well on track to make the playoffs.

And so I would rather build a team that consistently makes the playoffs than one that occasionally is stacked, but then has to rebuild. That doesn't mean that there's never a good time to improve the team. I think what NH did last year was smart, because he improved the chances of the team to make the playoffs with Morneau/Byrd, at a reasonable cost.

Put another way, IMO the A's chances of winning the WS this year did not go up as much as their chances of winning it in the future went down.

Disclaimer: I don't actually know much about the trade -- I'm just reacting to the soundbites I've heard. If the A's aren't actually mortgaging their future, I retract my claims. Also, claiming that it's impossible to consistently field a playoff caliber-team in a small market city via the draft is plausible, in which case boom/bust strategies are more defensible.



I'm the same way - the MLB playoffs seem rather random and I'd rather see the Bucs be competitive for 6 years than be a little better this year and next and suck in 2017.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
The Cubs have the money to, if they really want to, just sign Samardzjia as a free agent for 2016.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:59 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  YIM  Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:24 pm
Posts: 4235
Location: Zelienople, PA
The playoffs, IMO, are not random, but a function of pitching, as with all things baseball. Getting pitchers of that caliber that you can throw out in a short series certainly increases your odds of winning such a random event.

ZM

_________________
Someone tell Votto... rbis are good


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Sun Jul 06, 2014 8:53 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
Sure your odds are increased but how much and at what cost? A 162-game season coming down to a single wild card game and a 5 game series before two 7 game series in a sport where I think any team can beat any team any day more so than in any other sport, by it's very nature, is going to be rather random.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:53 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:59 pm
Posts: 97
Bucfan wrote:
urbman21 wrote:
Prospects are still "prospects" and that's all they all.

They are more than that, urbman. They are future major league players, and if in the Pirates' system, they are the Pirates' best players in the near future.

Andrew McCutchen - prospect as of 2009. Would you trade him now?
Neil Walker - prospect as of 2009. Would you trade him now?
Starling Marte - prospect 2012.
Gregory Polanco - prospect 2014.
Pedro Alvarez, Jordy Mercer, Justin Wilson, Tony Watson, Gerrit Cole, Jeff Locke - all prospects at one point.

Arguably, the Pirates' six of seven best position players, their best SP'er, and 2 of their 3 best bullpen arms were nothing more than "prospects" just a few years ago. Huntington could have dealt all of them for temporary improvement in the form of marginally productive veteran players.

But he would have given up an MVP and multiple all-stars.

Further, years of control and cost are huge factors in favor of young players. Polanco and Marte combine for less expense than a guy like Byrd. The extra money means that the Pirates can get an Edison Volquez for $5 million.

Which has more value - Marlon Byrd for $8 million, or Marte, and Polanco, and Watson, and Volquez for $8 million?

urbman21 wrote:
This is my only issue with NH. I still think he overvalues his prospects and that has caused us to fall short a couple of years. But I still respect his style and think we will eventually win in "time."

See above. He knows that high-end prospects have incredible value - superb production at very reasonable cost.


BucFan - you usually have really good posts but you definitely should have done your research before you responded to this. The Pirates lost for 20 consecutive years by gambling on prospects and the luck has finally turned in our corner with Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Walker and Pedro.
Here's a small list to jog your memory:
Hermanson - he was ranked higher than Roy Halladay... LOL
Bullington
Benson
Eldred
Snell
Lincoln - he was ranked higher than Kershaw, Lincecum, and Max Scherzer!!! TOTAL JOKE. Yeah, prospects have real value and are predictable..... LOL
J.J. Davis - he was ranked higher than Michael Cuddyer, Lance Berkman, Jayson Werth..... LOL
Moskos

Bobby Bradley
Sean Burnett
Van Benschoten
All 3 of the above players were all ranked higher than Barry Zito, Ben Sheets, Adam Wainwright, Bobby Crosby, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Matt Cain..... LOL!!!!!

I can add at least 20 more Pirate "prospects" to this list. Prospects are what caused the Pirates misery for 20 years.

End of discussion. Don't even try to debate this because you will never win. Prospects are a 100% gamble and Billy Beane just talked a GM into giving him two major league legit starters for all prospects and not one major league player.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:39 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10718
urbman - the well-known scouting and personnel failures of Cam Bonifay and David Littlefield have NOTHING to do with evaluating the current group of young prospects.

NOTHING.

Huntington is to be judged by HIS performance. That performance includes a lot of high draft selections, no doubt, but also includes drafting, signing and developing the following:

  • Gerrit Cole
  • Pedro Alvarez
  • Jordy Mercer
  • Justin Wilson
  • Tony Watson
  • Gregory Polanco
  • Starling Marte [signed after NH took over, all development under NH tenure]
  • Jameson Taillon
  • Nick Kingham
  • Tyler Glasnow
  • Austin Meadows
  • Reese McGuire
  • Josh Bell
  • Alen Hanson
  • Dilson Herrera [since traded but a good prospect]
  • Harold Ramirez

Further, the Huntington management group signed as free agents and/or obtained in trade the following players:

  • Mark Melancon
  • Stolmy Pimentel
  • Russell Martin
  • Francisco Liriano

The team's win totals 2010 to present have been 57, 72, 78, 94, and on pace for 87 with an upward trend.

Using Bonifay and Littlefield failures to suggest that the Huntington group of prospects is no better than his predecessors is just not legitimate.

Further, your analysis fails to acknowledge that for a team like the Pirates, finding top-tier major league talent is most likely to occur by using top-15 draft selections:

Image

http://viewfromthebleachers.com/blog/20 ... s-by-slot/

The Pirates are not going to get a player like McCutchen, or Polanco, or Walker, or Alvarez, or Cole, or Taillon in trade. They will instead get a player like Byrd - a good player, but a "fill-in" piece. The Pirates cannot succeed by stocking the team with fill-in pieces; they succeed by stockpiling blue-chip young talent (like the players listed above) and then filling in around those players.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:36 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
I'm aware that urbman says that it is over and Bucfan cannot "win" (because come on, Chad Hermanson!), but Roulette is a 100% gamble. Blackjack is a 100% gamble. Prospects are not.

And I would have been more on your side a few years ago, but it seems like these guys on the top 50 and top 100 lists are starting to hit much more often than not these days. I don't know if it's better scouting or coincidence or what, but even when I was on the "prospects are a gamble" side, they were only a 40-60% gamble at best, if that makes sense. For Oakland I kind of get it but with a stable of guys like the Bucs have, I'm willing to take those individual gambles.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:42 am 
Offline
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:47 pm
Posts: 327
Been hearing a lot lately that Billy Beane feels that prospects are overvalued in the industry. That makes sense, you won't find a GM of a low revenue team that has dealt as many top prospects as Beane has over the years. Moneyball.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:52 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 3138
mjdouble wrote:
Been hearing a lot lately that Billy Beane feels that prospects are overvalued in the industry. That makes sense, you won't find a GM of a low revenue team that has dealt as many top prospects as Beane has over the years. Moneyball.


Easy to make such comments when you have (by far) the best run differential in the league and have been a perennial contender for a while.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:20 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 3138
urbman21 wrote:
The Pirates lost for 20 consecutive years by gambling on prospects and the luck has finally turned in our corner with Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Walker and Pedro.


Those eras did not lose because they "gambled on prospects". The reality is that they did the opposite. Littlefield's entire tenure was based on a desperate to find "ML-ready talent" (his own words) which is what eventually led to young players like Craig Wilson being blocked in favor of aging veterans that were acquired. That with the poor drafting and trade record. We don't really need to go over the Morris signing as a singular microcosm of this example. Or using the best trade bait you ever had (Aramis Ramirez in his prime) to trade for a mediocre prospect and a replace level player who had just led the league in Ks.

The approach Huntington has taken of pouring money into the draft and building through the minors (which was completely stagnant when he took over) is the exact opposite.

For example, people always throw around Moskos's name. The problem is that Moskos wasn't even considered a great prospect at the moment he was drafted, and subsequently proudly announced by Littlefield that he would be developed as a reliever. The same goes for a pitcher like Bullington. Just because he was one of the biggest no. 1 draft blunders in history doesn't mean he was actually a great prospect because of his draft order. Comparing someone like Snell who was never even a consensus top 100 guy to a current pitching prospect like Kingham/Glasnow is asinine.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:42 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:06 pm
Posts: 1583
ZelieMike wrote:
The playoffs, IMO, are not random, but a function of pitching, as with all things baseball. Getting pitchers of that caliber that you can throw out in a short series certainly increases your odds of winning such a random event.

ZM



Ask the Seattle Mariners about that from a few years ago when they won over 110 games.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:49 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3655
Location: Economy, PA
TheShark wrote:
urbman21 wrote:
The Pirates lost for 20 consecutive years by gambling on prospects and the luck has finally turned in our corner with Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Walker and Pedro.


Those eras did not lose because they "gambled on prospects". The reality is that they did the opposite. Littlefield's entire tenure was based on a desperate to find "ML-ready talent" (his own words) which is what eventually led to young players like Craig Wilson being blocked in favor of aging veterans that were acquired. That with the poor drafting and trade record. We don't really need to go over the Morris signing as a singular microcosm of this example. Or using the best trade bait you ever had (Aramis Ramirez in his prime) to trade for a mediocre prospect and a replace level player who had just led the league in Ks.

The approach Huntington has taken of pouring money into the draft and building through the minors (which was completely stagnant when he took over) is the exact opposite.

For example, people always throw around Moskos's name. The problem is that Moskos wasn't even considered a great prospect at the moment he was drafted, and subsequently proudly announced by Littlefield that he would be developed as a reliever. The same goes for a pitcher like Bullington. Just because he was one of the biggest no. 1 draft blunders in history doesn't mean he was actually a great prospect because of his draft order. Comparing someone like Snell who was never even a consensus top 100 guy to a current pitching prospect like Kingham/Glasnow is asinine.


Well said. It was an evolutionary process. Before the McClatchey regime took over, we almost lost the franchise. Their group saved it and got the ballpark built, but they really didn't know how to build a winning team.

Nutting was the next step. Despite his reputation of being cheap, it was when he took over that we really started investing in the draft and in Latin America, and that investment has paid off.

It took an incredibly long time, but the franchise is in great shape and should be able to contend every year for the forseeable future.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 2:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5419
Location: Pittsburgh
urbman21 wrote:
BucFan - you usually have really good posts but you definitely should have done your research before you responded to this. The Pirates lost for 20 consecutive years by gambling on prospects and the luck has finally turned in our corner with Cutch, Marte, Polanco, Walker and Pedro.
Here's a small list to jog your memory:
Hermanson - he was ranked higher than Roy Halladay... LOL
Bullington
Benson
Eldred
Snell
Lincoln - he was ranked higher than Kershaw, Lincecum, and Max Scherzer!!! TOTAL JOKE. Yeah, prospects have real value and are predictable..... LOL
J.J. Davis - he was ranked higher than Michael Cuddyer, Lance Berkman, Jayson Werth..... LOL
Moskos

Bobby Bradley
Sean Burnett
Van Benschoten
All 3 of the above players were all ranked higher than Barry Zito, Ben Sheets, Adam Wainwright, Bobby Crosby, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Matt Cain..... LOL!!!!!

I can add at least 20 more Pirate "prospects" to this list. Prospects are what caused the Pirates misery for 20 years.

End of discussion. Don't even try to debate this because you will never win. Prospects are a 100% gamble and Billy Beane just talked a GM into giving him two major league legit starters for all prospects and not one major league player.

Wow. One of the most incredibly inane, ignorant posts I've come across in all my time here. Congratulations.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 2:50 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5096
Location: Washington, DC
Just thought I'd throw out this awesome line from Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs today, regarding the prospects the Cubs received from the Athletics:

TOO MANY AWESOME YOUNG SHORTSTOPS is a problem that has given general managers headaches approximately 0 times in baseball history.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 2:54 pm 
Offline
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:47 pm
Posts: 327
TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Been hearing a lot lately that Billy Beane feels that prospects are overvalued in the industry. That makes sense, you won't find a GM of a low revenue team that has dealt as many top prospects as Beane has over the years. Moneyball.


Easy to make such comments when you have (by far) the best run differential in the league and have been a perennial contender for a while.


This isn't the first time Beane has traded a top prospect. And the fact that he has managed to keep the A's perennial contenders while dealing top prospects kind of refutes the fallacy that doing so will kill the future of a low revenue team. The bottom line is if you have good scouting and development program they should be able to replenish some lost assets. So maybe teams should put a little more faith in that.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 3:51 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 3138
mjdouble wrote:
This isn't the first time Beane has traded a top prospect. And the fact that he has managed to keep the A's perennial contenders while dealing top prospects kind of refutes the fallacy that doing so will kill the future of a low revenue team. The bottom line is if you have good scouting and development program they should be able to replenish some lost assets. So maybe teams should put a little more faith in that.


I believe that moving a piece like Addison Russell, a top 10 guy getting "Larkin w/ power" comps from Beane himself amidst having a perhaps historical league lead in run differential is a much different example than previous prospect moves. That's what I was referring to ... Beane has said about this trade that they're not in the position to stockpile prospects, and of course he is correct. This move is what it is. The A's are far and away the best team in the league, and they're going for it this year/ The move seems like a clear win for both Beane and Epstein, for obviously different reasons. If Epstein or Luhnow's plan pans out in the next few years you could just as well argue for the opposite approach.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:20 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:59 pm
Posts: 97
I love how my words have suddenly changed like 10 posts later. I never said or am I against building a team from within your minor league system. Of course that's what NH has done and I'm a fan of it. What I said was Beane pulled off a masterful trade (which he did) by talking a GM into giving him two major league legit starters for all prospects. I don't have a problem with what Epstein did because he really had no choice. I do think he could have held out and got one or two major league ready players for what he gave up though. And I will still defend my stance that prospects are worthless and are a 100% gamble until they prove themselves in the big leagues.

I think NH is a great "rebuilding" GM but I don't think he is good at negotiating ML trades. Beane seems to do it every year and find replacements that are "throw aways" from other teams, and continues to win. NH is so scared to go for it when meanwhile our minor league system is beyond stacked - according to all the prospect evaluators on this site. We have tons of prospects to trade for a few good "fill in" pieces to go for it but NH continues to proceed with caution. IMO that's not going to win a WS. We might keep making the playoffs for years to come but if we want a legitimate shot at winning it all then we need to go "all in" at some point.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A's trade for Samardzija and Hammel in blockbuster
PostPosted: Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:25 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2499
Location: Tejas
urbman21 wrote:
And I will still defend my stance that prospects are worthless and are a 100% gamble until they prove themselves in the big leagues.


And you will still be told that you are 100%, unequivocally incorrect.

Yeah, let's go with the strategy that it's smart to hold out for major league ready prospects in AAA, not guys who are 1-2 levels lower but much more highly regarded. The Dave Littlefield strategy reincarnated.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 51 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Yahoo [Bot] and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits