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 Post subject: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:39 am 
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Could we see a second half collapse from this team? One thing about them- they are a veteran team, with many players over 30. Which way will that play? They have been very lucky in the first half with injuries. Will that catch up to them? Thoughts?


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 12:14 pm 
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They probably won't play .607 baseball for the remainder of the season but .500 baseball puts them at 90-72. The math is working in their favor. My personal opinion? They are going to be hard to catch. They have survived injuries to Braun and Ramirez. They have survived a Gomez suspension. I believe that they have the offense to off-set any potential downturn in performance by the pitching staff. That ballpark is very well-suited for their line-up and I think that they will play at least .500 ball through the rest of the season. I'm betting that they will get 92-93 wins and wouldn't be surprised to see them even higher than that.

Of note:
They have 6 games (3H; 3A) against the Dodgers.
They have 3 away games against the Giants.
They have 4 games (2H; 2A) against the Blue Jays.
They have 3 away games against the Nationals.

In the NL Central, they have 12 games left against the Reds and Cardinals.

So . . . of their remaining 78 games, 40 games are against the first place Blue Jays and the best teams in the NL.

The Pirates only have 6 more games against them. (Which is likely good for the Pirates and bad for the Brewers)

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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:29 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
Could we see a second half collapse from this team? One thing about them- they are a veteran team, with many players over 30. Which way will that play? They have been very lucky in the first half with injuries. Will that catch up to them? Thoughts?


Over this season, sure, anything is possible. Look at the Cards last year with RISP. Long-term? No. Terrible farm system plus an aging roster with bad contracts is a tough combo. They can't get anybody to bite on Ricke Weeks at this point, for example.

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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:35 pm 
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At this point I'm looking at the Wild Card standings before the divisional. Catching the Brewers seems like a long shot.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:35 pm 
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Like No. 9, I don't expect a collapse but I do expect their winning percentage to decline. I think they still win the division.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:28 pm 
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I hate them with every fiber of my being.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:55 pm 
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Personally, I'd like to see a 9-18 August swoon. Probably wishful thinking, though, unless they get some key injuries, which I do not wish for.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:32 pm 
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NO. LOL. This board cracks me up how everybody states "the obvious" on here. The Brewers have done well in the first half (which means absolutely nothing) and everybody already says they're going to win the division. Hahaha. My prediction for this board: coffee has caffeine!

Everybody on here also said the Pirates were done at the end of April. Guess who has the best record in the NL since May 2? Yep, your terrible Buccos.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:45 pm 
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Well, thanks for dropping by from time to time to remind us all how stupid we are and how brilliant a baseball mind you are... :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 3:54 pm 
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urbman21 wrote:
NO. LOL. This board cracks me up how everybody states "the obvious" on here. The Brewers have done well in the first half (which means absolutely nothing) and everybody already says they're going to win the division. Hahaha. My prediction for this board: coffee has caffeine!

Everybody on here also said the Pirates were done at the end of April. Guess who has the best record in the NL since May 2? Yep, your terrible Buccos.



All right Carnac. Enlighten us with your wisdom. Go on record and tell us what the Brewers' final record will be, what place they will finish any why.

Always love it when someone decides to author a derisive post but fails to offer any substantive opinion of his own.

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:21 pm 
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I have written on this topic in several other threads, but since this thread deals specifically with this topic, here is my take.

(1) The Brewers are on pace to finish 10 games better than their Pythagoras projection suggests they should. "Who cares?" you ask? We all do, because in the history of the sport, only five teams have EVER won 10 more games than Pythagoras projected. In fact, it is much more likely to be 10 games negative than 10 positive. The last team to outperform Pythag by 10 games was the 1981 Cincinnati Reds - the ONLY team to be +10 Pythag since 1955. I suspect that the advent and greater use of bullpens forces teams closer to their Pythag projections.

(2) The Brewers team ERA is 3.59, 12th best in the majors, but their team FIP is 3.93, 22nd best in the majors. That will level out ... or did Jeff Locke's 2nd half teach us NOTHING?

(3) The Brewers have used 5 SP'ers all year. All five are on pace to throw at least 192 IP, and 4 are on pace to exceed 200 IP. What are the chances a team goes through a season with no injuries to the starting pitchers? This matters a ton, since the Brewers have limited options in the minors. They have Jimmy Nelson, a 25-year old drafted in 2010 and he is a decent candidate, and Taylor Jungmann, who is struggling in AAA. Not much backing up their starting five ... one decent prospect (not great, just decent), and one struggling prospect. One of the starting five will miss starts. It happens.

So there.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 4:49 pm 
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Looks like it. And it doesn't help that fact that we can't beat them.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:03 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
urbman21 wrote:
NO. LOL. This board cracks me up how everybody states "the obvious" on here. The Brewers have done well in the first half (which means absolutely nothing) and everybody already says they're going to win the division. Hahaha. My prediction for this board: coffee has caffeine!

Everybody on here also said the Pirates were done at the end of April. Guess who has the best record in the NL since May 2? Yep, your terrible Buccos.



All right Carnac. Enlighten us with your wisdom. Go on record and tell us what the Brewers' final record will be, what place they will finish any why.

Always love it when someone decides to author a derisive post but fails to offer any substantive opinion of his own.


Simple. One word. KROD. The guy is horrible. He would get lit in my Sunday league. I would bet my entire life savings that he doesn't sustain, and in fact that he gets removed from the closer role by August or mid-August. Also, Gallardo. He won't keep this pace up. He just got lit up his last start bad. Lohse probably can maintain but Garza also gets worse later in the season and he's already off to a below average start.

My prediction:

8 wins one month
14 another
12 another

85 wins total


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:06 pm 
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I'm going to predict 90 wins for the hated Brew Crew and hope I've overshot by a goodly number.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:58 pm 
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urbman21 wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
urbman21 wrote:
NO. LOL. This board cracks me up how everybody states "the obvious" on here. The Brewers have done well in the first half (which means absolutely nothing) and everybody already says they're going to win the division. Hahaha. My prediction for this board: coffee has caffeine!

Everybody on here also said the Pirates were done at the end of April. Guess who has the best record in the NL since May 2? Yep, your terrible Buccos.



All right Carnac. Enlighten us with your wisdom. Go on record and tell us what the Brewers' final record will be, what place they will finish any why.

Always love it when someone decides to author a derisive post but fails to offer any substantive opinion of his own.


Simple. One word. KROD. The guy is horrible. He would get lit in my Sunday league. I would bet my entire life savings that he doesn't sustain, and in fact that he gets removed from the closer role by August or mid-August. Also, Gallardo. He won't keep this pace up. He just got lit up his last start bad. Lohse probably can maintain but Garza also gets worse later in the season and he's already off to a below average start.

My prediction:

8 wins one month
14 another
12 another

85 wins total


OK now that you've predicted a 34-44 finish for the Brewers, show me where everybody on here said the Pirates were done at the end of April.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 6:46 pm 
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OK now that you've predicted a 34-44 finish for the Brewers, show me where everybody on here said the Pirates were done at the end of April.[/quote]

Really??? The Thurs May 1 post titled "This team" was one of many.
Ralphie - I will say your post was like 50% positive. Meaning - you gave yourself just enough of an "out" for later if the Pirates started playing well so you could jump back on the bandwagon. Here is your post below from that thread replying to my post that everybody needs to be patient because we were having a lot of bad luck with a low BABIP.

Your post:
You might think BABIP is everything, but I think wins and losses count for more. We didn't bad-luck our way into a 4-15 record over the past 19.
On paper yes it seems like we have a talented team. And its early but its not THAT early. The fact is these losses we are piling up now are going to be hard to overcome later.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:20 pm 
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Well, building a buffer always helps, as the Brewers have. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to play well (at or slightly higher than .500, or go into a tailspin). I do think the tailspin is coming, but it may be next year, not this year because I believe in things like the big Mo... during the course of a year. The Sabr stuff will make nice predictions (like Cardinals not doing the RISP thing from year to year) but one can also look at a season as a SSS - in the context of a team makeup over years - and simply have a team be "hot" the whole year, or least hot enough to hold onto the W/L margin.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:55 pm 
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Yeah, I think you always have to look at seasons as small samples when evaluating teams and players. You can luck into a great record (such as an exceptional performance in 1-run games), and if guys didn't luck into a random hot season you wouldn't have clear career years.

Much like the Cards last year with RISP, if Milwaukee keeps up this pace you just have to tip your hat to them at the end of the day. They haven't really done anything special as a team, or particularly well as a franchise, but things are breaking right for them so far (e.g. Clint Hurdle pitching Jason Grilli in 9th innings). Doesn't appear to be sustainable, but then again neither did the Cards last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:00 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I do think the tailspin is coming, but it may be next year, not this year because I believe in things like the big Mo... during the course of a year. The Sabr stuff will make nice predictions (like Cardinals not doing the RISP thing from year to year) but one can also look at a season as a SSS
ZM

I do NOT dismiss that possibility. It is POSSIBLE to continue to outperform the reasonable outcome for as much as a season. Your reference to the Cards 2013 RISP is a good example.

But I respect numbers. Vegas has 50 gold-plated casinos built on people who believed they could "overcome" the odds.

Some did ... most did not and their money led to Italian marble in the entry way, rare art in alcoves, fountains in the driveways, etc.

Expecting to "beat the odds" is a fool's errand. The odds are what they are for a reason.


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 Post subject: Re: Is the Brewers' Success Sustainable?
PostPosted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:06 am 
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urbman21 wrote:
OK now that you've predicted a 34-44 finish for the Brewers, show me where everybody on here said the Pirates were done at the end of April.


Really??? The Thurs May 1 post titled "This team" was one of many.
Ralphie - I will say your post was like 50% positive. Meaning - you gave yourself just enough of an "out" for later if the Pirates started playing well so you could jump back on the bandwagon. Here is your post below from that thread replying to my post that everybody needs to be patient because we were having a lot of bad luck with a low BABIP.

Your post:
You might think BABIP is everything, but I think wins and losses count for more. We didn't bad-luck our way into a 4-15 record over the past 19.
On paper yes it seems like we have a talented team. And its early but its not THAT early. The fact is these losses we are piling up now are going to be hard to overcome later.[/quote]

Nowhere did I say they were done, and in fact what I said still seems very true - all the early losses will be tough to overcome.


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