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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 5:30 pm 
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I think its unfortunate that because we now understand how certain stats, like rbi and BA, have flaws, some are so willing to be completely dismissive of those stats. I havent really seen that to the extreme here on our Board, but on other Boards its like these numbers dont count at all and youre ridiculed for bringing them up. For me they still have real value, certainly as much value as some newly created but still obscure stats that look like 35 points on a Scrabble board.

Also, to me a greatly overlooked stat is production with RISP. To me, this defines a clutch player, which was important back when I was a kid. Its one of the reasons I like Freddy so much, the ability to produce when its most important. Doesnt make him a great player, just a valuable one if scoring runs is important to you.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 6:45 pm 
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Kingston wrote:
Also, to me a greatly overlooked stat is production with RISP. To me, this defines a clutch player, which was important back when I was a kid. Its one of the reasons I like Freddy so much, the ability to produce when its most important. Doesnt make him a great player, just a valuable one if scoring runs is important to you.


And the push for 100 just got a serious - very serious - bump. Nice work.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:08 pm 
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Kingston wrote:
I think its unfortunate that because we now understand how certain stats, like rbi and BA, have flaws, some are so willing to be completely dismissive of those stats. I havent really seen that to the extreme here on our Board...


Stick around a while... ohhhh, just stick around...

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:30 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Kingston wrote:
Also, to me a greatly overlooked stat is production with RISP. To me, this defines a clutch player, which was important back when I was a kid. Its one of the reasons I like Freddy so much, the ability to produce when its most important. Doesnt make him a great player, just a valuable one if scoring runs is important to you.


And the push for 100 just got a serious - very serious - bump. Nice work.



Some smart-ass part of me wants to lock this thread on page 99....


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:50 pm 
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I haven't read pages 2-85. I thought I'd post just to be a part of this.

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:55 pm 
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RISP is an indicator of a teams ability to get on base, not individual skill. There, I said it.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 7:57 pm 
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But....

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 8:12 pm 
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Argentum wrote:
RISP is an indicator of a teams ability to get on base, not individual skill. There, I said it.


Is it? Say Freddy is on a team with less offense, a lesser ability to get on base. And say Cano is on a team with a greater ability to get on base. So Freddy comes up during the season with 100 men in scoring position and Cano comes up with 200 (for the sake of argument). Why is it not an individual stat if Freddy hits .350 w/RISP while Cano hits .220? Why is that not an indicator of clutch hitting, even tho Freddy has had fewer opportunities? What if Dunn is on a bad team and sees considerably less RISP than Teixera? Isnt (again, hypothetically) Dunn's SLG % of .500 with RISP better than Teixeira's .400? Whats the teams ability to get on base have to do with that level of individual performance in the clutch?

Just askin :D


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 8:21 pm 
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BBF wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
Kingston wrote:
Also, to me a greatly overlooked stat is production with RISP. To me, this defines a clutch player, which was important back when I was a kid. Its one of the reasons I like Freddy so much, the ability to produce when its most important. Doesnt make him a great player, just a valuable one if scoring runs is important to you.


And the push for 100 just got a serious - very serious - bump. Nice work.



Some smart-ass part of me wants to lock this thread on page 99....


You know what they say; 99 is the new 100.

Actually, dont forget, the elimination of Ian's posts took us down a few pages. Thats what I meant when I said in his eulogy that we are diminished by his absence.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 8:52 pm 
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Kingston wrote:
Argentum wrote:
RISP is an indicator of a teams ability to get on base, not individual skill. There, I said it.


Is it? Say Freddy is on a team with less offense, a lesser ability to get on base. And say Cano is on a team with a greater ability to get on base. So Freddy comes up during the season with 100 men in scoring position and Cano comes up with 200 (for the sake of argument). Why is it not an individual stat if Freddy hits .350 w/RISP while Cano hits .220? Why is that not an indicator of clutch hitting, even tho Freddy has had fewer opportunities? What if Dunn is on a bad team and sees considerably less RISP than Teixera? Isnt (again, hypothetically) Dunn's SLG % of .500 with RISP better than Teixeira's .400? Whats the teams ability to get on base have to do with that level of individual performance in the clutch?

Just askin :D

First, Argentum merely said that RISP itself is an indicator of a team's ability to get on base. He did not say that a hitter's batting average w/ RISP is such an indicator.

Now, as for the value of batting average w/ RISP is concerned, I don't see how valuable that information is unless the player's BA w/ RISP is markedly different from said player's normal BA. In your hypotheticals, yes, I suppose that Freddy's BA of .350 w/ RISP would indicate clutch hitting -- that is, if his regular BA is not also equal or close to .350. The problem is that those who are considered clutch hitters are often also considered good hitters, and that's largely because their BA's w/ RISP are substantially similar to their normal BA w/ RISP. So, unless a player's BA w/ RISP diverges substantially from his normal BA, I don't see how helpful BA w/ RISP is.

That's why I think the use of hypotheticals in this case is unhelpful. Sure, hypothetically, a player who has a BA w/ RISP that is substantially higher than his normal BA would be justifiably considered clutch. But how often does that occur in actuality? How often does a player hit better w/ RISP than he would in normal situations? How much better at it is he compared to the average or replacement player? How often does such a player maintain this clutchness from year to year? And most importantly, how much more valuable does this clutchness make the player?

I've said on more than one occasion that there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. I do believe that there is such a thing as clutch hitting, but I don't think it is a skill that one can maintain from year to year. That's why I think that all the noise that is created regarding clutch hitting is an exercise in futility, and that any team that gives a player more money than it would give another player purely based on clutch hitting is foolish.

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:26 pm 
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Not a challenge, just a question; is there any evidence to support the idea that most hitters keep up the same personal level of production whether there are RISP or not? I have no evidence either way, but I would guess Bay's career numbers have a dropoff w/RISP. I do believe there are guys who excel in pressure situations, and the fact that they may be in the minority makes them all the more special. Thats a human component that is every bit as much a part of what makes up an athlete as his OBP.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:35 pm 
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Willton wrote:
I've said on more than one occasion that there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. I do believe that there is such a thing as clutch hitting, but I don't think it is a skill that one can maintain from year to year. That's why I think that all the noise that is created regarding clutch hitting is an exercise in futility, and that any team that gives a player more money than it would give another player purely based on clutch hitting is foolish.


Bill James has revised his view on this issue by noting that clutch situations certainly exist, performing in the clutch exists, but he was not sure that players could repeat clutch hitting from year to year. That was due at least in part to the fact that no clear definition of "clutch" exists.

James noted last year that certain players - David Ortiz, Mike Sweeney, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols - had demonstrated a consistently high performance in clutch hitting situations, while other good hitters - Ken Griffey, Jr., for example - had not. One player that James analyzed was Adam Dunn, who had a very low batting average, and lower than career OPS, in "clutch" situations.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/b ... index.html

The "clutch" performers had exceeded their career averages for BA, OPB, and OPS over a span of at least five years. What is particularly interesting about that stat is the fact that these hitters usually face some of the best pitchers in "clutch" hitting situations - specialty relievers, guys from the pen throwing 98 mph or with a wicked slider, closers, etc. Hitting well against those guys is quite an accomplishment.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:47 pm 
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For me, its not about some .260 hitter suddenly turning into a .360 when runners are on. So yes, I agree most of the better hitters probably have the higher BA w/RISP, that seems natural. What im asking is, does the clutch situation make the good or great simply better? Are there modest hitters who become that much tougher an out? That, as opposed to who shrinks under those circumstances. Throughout my life spent as a fan, there are just some guys I dont want to see at the plate against us under those conditions. I think thats a baseball tradition, and one not based solely on their overall stats.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:01 pm 
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Because its not about making anyone "better" at any given time. Its about keeping your head about you when all others get jittery. Its about maintaining your level of performance in the face of pressure when others start to sweat. It is why Maz was clutch. He didn't become, in reality, a .300 hitter in the clutch. He just was able to swing away at his .265 self while others threw a flat curv under pressure.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:05 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Because its not about making anyone "better" at any given time. Its about keeping your head about you when all others get jittery. Its about maintaining your level of performance in the face of pressure when others start to sweat.

ZM


Fair enough, but for the record, thats what I meant by "better", a guy who does better under certain circumstances. :)


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:57 pm 
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Kingston wrote:
Not a challenge, just a question; is there any evidence to support the idea that most hitters keep up the same personal level of production whether there are RISP or not? I have no evidence either way, but I would guess Bay's career numbers have a dropoff w/RISP. I do believe there are guys who excel in pressure situations, and the fact that they may be in the minority makes them all the more special. Thats a human component that is every bit as much a part of what makes up an athlete as his OBP.

Bay's Career Hitting Overall: .282/.375/.516 in 3,259 plate appearances
Bay's Career Hitting w/ RISP: .280/.389/.502 in 951 plate appearances
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bs ... n1=bayja01

The above shows me that Bay has largely been the same player in RISP situations as he has been overall.

I encourage you to try this with any player you like.

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Last edited by Willton on Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 11:02 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Kingston wrote:
Not a challenge, just a question; is there any evidence to support the idea that most hitters keep up the same personal level of production whether there are RISP or not? I have no evidence either way, but I would guess Bay's career numbers have a dropoff w/RISP. I do believe there are guys who excel in pressure situations, and the fact that they may be in the minority makes them all the more special. Thats a human component that is every bit as much a part of what makes up an athlete as his OBP.

Bay's Career Hitting Overall: .282/.375/.516 in 3,259 plate appearances
Bay's Career Hitting w/ RISP: .280/.389/.502 in 951 plate appearances
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bs ... n1=bayja01


Well that figures.

Someone blast the Ramones, Im on the second half of the bottle!! 20 20 20-4 hours to goooo, i wanna be sedated...


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 10:59 am 
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I respect James and I do believe in statistical analysis, but I will say this: anyone who doesn't believe that some players handle pressure better than others has simply never played the game.

And it's not just baseball.

I respect those performers who can "shut out the noise" and respond at a high level. The Red Sox are my favorite American League team. Anyone who says Big Papi isn't clutch just hasn't been paying attention.

However, I can see how first hand experience will skew a fan's opinion. Example: no one will ever be able to convince me that Jason Michaels isn't "clutch" after last season, particularly after that walk-off homer against the Cards. Yet a statistical analysis of his career might show that, aside from last season, he wasn't.

Clutch is a very real thing to me and to most fans. Those of us who post on these boards tend to forget "the gut feeling" as we study our statistical sources.


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:02 am 
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SyrBucco wrote:
I respect James and I do believe in statistical analysis, but I will say this: anyone who doesn't believe that some players handle pressure better than others has simply never played the game.

And it's not just baseball.

I respect those performers who can "shut out the noise" and respond at a high level. The Red Sox are my favorite American League team. Anyone who says Big Papi isn't clutch just hasn't been paying attention.

However, I can see how first hand experience will skew a fan's opinion. Example: no one will ever be able to convince me that Jason Michaels isn't "clutch" after last season, particularly after that walk-off homer against the Cards. Yet a statistical analysis of his career might show that, aside from last season, he wasn't.

Clutch is a very real thing to me and to most fans. Those of us who post on these boards tend to forget "the gut feeling" as we study our statistical sources.


I agree


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 Post subject: Re: Huntington Must Go, Day #1
PostPosted: Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:11 pm 
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I was happy to discover that Clemente's BA w/RISP was 18 points higher and his OPS 70 points higher than when he hit with the bases empty, and Pops went up 24 points in BA and 112 points in OPS. Thats how I remember them.


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