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 Post subject: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:03 pm 
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If any team is due for some on the offensive side, it's the Cardinals. Here's why:

Their lineup had 4 .300 hitters last year, Holliday, Molina, Carpenter, and Craig. For all of them but Holliday, this was at least 10 points above their career average. And even Holliday is in decline. They also have Peralta, who hit .303 last year, 36 points above his career average, and Bourjos, who hit 23 points above his career average last year. Of all these players, all but Carpenter and Bourjos are going to be under 30 at season's end. I also think having that many .300 hitters is a pretty rare feat, hard to repeat.

The real difference is going to be RISP. Their .330 RISP average in 1355 ABs has to be one of the biggest statistical anomalies in baseball history. Even if they regress to .270, which still would have been good for 5th place last year, that will mean they score about 100 less runs according to last year's stats. That's a lot. How many wins will that cost them?

What do you all think?


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:14 pm 
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I think there's no way they do what they did last year in terms of RISP. But I also think they'll hit lefties better this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:35 pm 
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I tend not to focus not on career averages, since park effect, a move to a division with better pitching, etc. can skew yearly production quite a bit compared to career stats. The stat I think matters is BABIP.

We all now know and love this stat. It tells us who had an unusually high (lucky) BABIP, and is therefore likely to regress and whose BABIP was low, and therefore likely to improve. Here are the stats for the Cardinals hitters:

Peralta: BA .303, BABIP .374. Yeah, that is not going to happen again, so he is likely to return to .260 with a BABIP of .315.

Craig: BA .315, BABIP .368. Too high to maintain, but his high line drive rate and career BABIP of .344 mean he loses maybe 25 points on that number. BA will probably drop to .295 or so.

Carpenter: BA .318, BABIP .359. His career line drive rate is so high (26%) that his BABIP will probably stay at a very, very high level. Some drop-off, but not 20 points. Maybe the BA winds up at .300 to .310.

Molina: .319, BABIP of .338. That BABIP was 22 points above his career average, so it is entirely reasonable to anticipate a decline in BA of nearly 20 points, down to the upper .290's.

Bourjos: BA .274, BABIP of .346. Again, that figure is far too high for his hitting profile (mere 14.3% line drive rate) and will normalize to something in his career average of .300. His BA is likely to decline back to the .240's, which is where hitters with little power and a 14% line drive rate wind up.

Holliday: BA .300, BABIP of .322. Holliday's BABIP was actually 20 points below his career average, where his line drive rate remained at 21%, so I don't expect a decline in his overall BA. I do expect that his .390 BA with RISP will normalize.

Wong and Adams really don't have enough history to project their BA's for the upcoming season.


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:06 pm 
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STL doesn't seem like a great 'regression' candidate (or enough to earn enough attention) because they're the type of franchise that knows what it's doing and keeps a steady stream of reserves to avoid 'regression'.

They'll probably see a dip in RISP hitting and maybe even lose a win or two, but they're still a prime NL playoff, if not pennant, pick.

So, yeah... 'regression' in the literal sense to the tune of 90% instead of 92-93%, but... :roll: :D

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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:33 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
STL doesn't seem like a great 'regression' candidate (or enough to earn enough attention) because they're the type of franchise that knows what it's doing and keeps a steady stream of reserves to avoid 'regression'.

They'll probably see a dip in RISP hitting and maybe even lose a win or two, but they're still a prime NL playoff, if not pennant, pick.

So, yeah... 'regression' in the literal sense to the tune of 90% instead of 92-93%, but... :roll: :D

We'd all love to regress like the Cardinals. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:41 am 
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The Cards completely overachieved last year. Their rotation is WAY overrated and they will not be able to replace Beltran's clutch hitting. Kelly and Wacha will both regress and Molina might play in 80 games. There's no way he can stay healthy all year. 84 wins at most this year. I predict Carpenter hits .240 with 6 bombs.


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:11 am 
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urbman21 wrote:
The Cards completely overachieved last year. Their rotation is WAY overrated and they will not be able to replace Beltran's clutch hitting. Kelly and Wacha will both regress and Molina might play in 80 games. There's no way he can stay healthy all year. 84 wins at most this year. I predict Carpenter hits .240 with 6 bombs.


Sounds to me like you're just throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and hoping something sticks. The normalizing of the historic RISP performance last year doesn't come close to meaning they all of a sudden project to be a barely .500 team. You can just as well use the "overachieved" line on the Pirates last year when it comes to things like the bullpen, the first half they got from Locke, player's OBPs being boosted by HBP, etc.

There is zero reason to expect a player like Carpenter to all of a sudden regress to being a below average player just because he had what will likely end up being a career outlier year last year. He is a career .858 OPS player in the minors with fantastic plate discipline and tools.

Why is there "no way" Molina stays healthy, exactly? Because he's 31 and hasn't missed significant time his entire career? You know who fits that exact criteria? Russell Martin. Are you expecting him to only catch 80 games as well?


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:35 am 
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Molina has caught 9 years straight of over 120 games except two years, 114 and 111 games. Look up the stats on how many catchers go 10 years with that many games before major injury. Enough said.


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 8:14 am 
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urbman21 wrote:
Molina has caught 9 years straight of over 120 games except two years, 114 and 111 games. Look up the stats on how many catchers go 10 years with that many games before major injury. Enough said.


Yeah, but how many of those catchers juice? :D Just kidding... Okay, I'm sorry, I just think the guy's dirty.


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 Post subject: Re: Regression and the St. Louis Cardinals
PostPosted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:41 pm 
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urbman21 wrote:
The Cards completely overachieved last year. Their rotation is WAY overrated and they will not be able to replace Beltran's clutch hitting. Kelly and Wacha will both regress and Molina might play in 80 games. There's no way he can stay healthy all year. 84 wins at most this year. I predict Carpenter hits .240 with 6 bombs.


My Molina prediction made on April 1. He's played in 83 games. Yep thank you. :lol:


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