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 Post subject: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:01 pm 
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Sign Brett Gardner to a 4 year/52 million dollar deal. Look at his career numbers...he is an older (albeit better base stealer) than Jose Tabata...and now he makes 13 mil per year. It is one thing to pay AFraud, CC and Teixeira huge free agent contracts, but when you inflate the market on mediocre players like Gardner it skews the game. Sadly Tabata's deal now looks like a huge bargain...even if he is the fourth OFer.


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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:41 pm 
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This is one of their better signings. If he produces at 3.5 WAR for 3 of the 4 seasons he's a bargain.


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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:24 pm 
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Sadly, you're both right. That is the going rate, because the big markets have determined so. And yes, he is overvalued.


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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:04 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
This is one of their better signings. If he produces at 3.5 WAR for 3 of the 4 seasons he's a bargain.


If he were 27 years old, maybe...but the life of this contract is what skews it. Gardner, at 35 will be a slowing, slap hitter that's struggles to get to a .270 batting average and no pop AT 13 MILLION DOLLARS!

He also has indicators of declining ability (worsening BB:K rate...with both variables going in the wrong direction, his SB total and % declined, and as stated, a mediocre BA that will not make up for the low BB rate.). Maybe palatable if he were about to enter his prime and you could expect improvement but he turns 31 this year, so he has one more prime year+, maybe.

I will agree with one point though...this is still the Yanks best signing of the offseason, but that is faint praise. The Ellsbury signing was nauseating. 3 years for Beltran was a stretch. I think Tanaka is nothing more than Dice-K part deaux. Lastly, the long term, high $ deal for an aging McCann...yikes.

The Yankees success of the mid 90's was born from talent development not talent acquisition. Jeter, Bernie, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera. They've shelled out so much more with only one championship to show for it since the A-rod, Giambi, Teixeira, et al deals. They've blown the market up, screwed their fans with a new stadium with prices so high they can't regularly sell out in the largest city in the US and for what? Blah!


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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 9:28 pm 
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I'm rusty at best at my $/WAR knowledge, but isn't it not a 'static' statistic?

That is... while Gardner may technically be worth $5 or 6 M/year based on $/WAR, it's only because of the current state of the 'free market'. (maybe?)

If that is the case, then the argument would be that because teams like the Yankees choose to pay 'market value' that it drives up the cost of $/WAR for all the other teams.

They're like the rich guy who pays sticker price for a new car or buys the newest technology when it's first released, as opposed to the more 'frugal' and 'wiser' 'market exploiters' (like OAK, PIT or TB) who talk the dealer down a few k or wait for version 3.0 (that costs 15-25% less) before buying that new prized item.

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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:16 pm 
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Well, paying the sticker price is an improvement for the Yankees. At least it shows some semblance of financial responsibility.

If I'm the Yankees I'm not too uncomfortable paying for his 30-33 year old seasons at $12.5MM/year if I think he can be my CFer, play good defense, and not lose too much of his base stealing ability (it's a bit unreasonable to expect 40+ anymore but 25-30 shouldn't be out of the question.

Furthermore he's at 17.1 WAR (Fangraphs) over the past 5 seasons (one of which was cut short at 15 games due to injury). For comparison Ellsbury is at 18.2 WAR (with an 18 game season) and Granderson is at 16.5 WAR (61 game season last year) over the same time period. Both of those guys got bigger contracts than him. At $12.5MM AAV the Yankees are paying below the ~$5MM/WAR sticker price as long as he averages greater than 2.5 WAR/season which I think is realistic (Walker was at 2.7 last year and 2B and CF have the same positional adjustment).

The Yankees are certainly guilty of inflating the market with the long contracts that pay guys into their late 30s and early 40s at $20MM+/season when it's almost inevitable that they can't produce for that long but this Gardner contract isn't the one that's inflating the market.


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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:19 am 
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JollyRoger wrote:
The Yankees are certainly guilty of inflating the market with the long contracts that pay guys into their late 30s and early 40s at $20MM+/season when it's almost inevitable that they can't produce for that long but this Gardner contract isn't the one that's inflating the market.


Good point, at least in the larger sense.

Of course, isn't every inflation of of an asset (in this case a 'medium risk' or 'average producing' one) part of the problem in that same larger sense?

Paying Jayson Werth nine figures over seven years is obviously more egregious than paying Willie Bloomquist $5/6 M over two years, but both are the types of signings which larger market teams make that affect the smaller market ones.

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 Post subject: Re: Stupid Yankees
PostPosted: Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:19 pm 
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How do you think this makes McCutchen feel about his 6 yrs/$51.5M contract? He probably puked.


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