Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Sun Sep 21, 2014 1:03 am

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 105 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:11 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5577
ZelieMike wrote:
Or, you get a guy who misses a month+, again, with another age-related injury (calf pull?) and dies out at the end of year after giving you a bunch of K's in the first 4 innings, collapsing in the 5th and requiring early bullpen help (sound familiar?).

Plus a guy with an arthritic elbow who goes on the DL again.

Both are very plausible scenarios.

Do you pay $14 and 7.5 mil for it?

Or, do you stick with what you think AJ is WORTH and live with your staff as is?

ZM


As in most cases, I think the truth will be inbetween the extremes.

A.J. is likely to be closer to 2.0 WAR than 3.5 or 0.5.

At $6-7M/WAR, that means he's worth $12-14M/year.

That's what you pay him as and if he does hit 3.5 or above then you've still gotten a bargain investment (relatively).

While such a method would require more money, it seems more possible/likely and/or less risky than paying $5 M for Volquez and hoping he cracks 2.0 WAR.

The Pirates 'bargain hunting' strategy makes sense, in general. In this case I'm not sure it's the right call.

If A.J. does was $18M/year then you're absolutely right and my points are moot. It's unlikely he will be worth that sort of investment and/or the ROI would not be much, if any.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2014 3:57 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10635
NSMaster56 wrote:
While such a method would require more money, it seems more possible/likely and/or less risky than paying $5 M for Volquez and hoping he cracks 2.0 WAR.

But using WAR and revised WAR value, all Volquez needs to do is provide 0.8 WAR and he is worth the contract.

He provided 1.1 in 2012 and 0.4 last year. His contract is thereby generally in keeping with his anticipated WAR value.

Keep in mind, I said "generally."


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2014 4:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 5:54 pm
Posts: 6162
Location: Keystone State
Ron Cook: Pirates got it right with A.J.Burnett

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/ron-cook/2014/01/30/Ron-Cook-Pirates-got-it-right-with-A-J-Burnett/stories/201401300168

_________________
The Bucs are going all the way, all the way this year!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:32 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5577
Bucfan wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
While such a method would require more money, it seems more possible/likely and/or less risky than paying $5 M for Volquez and hoping he cracks 2.0 WAR.

But using WAR and revised WAR value, all Volquez needs to do is provide 0.8 WAR and he is worth the contract.

He provided 1.1 in 2012 and 0.4 last year. His contract is thereby generally in keeping with his anticipated WAR value.

Keep in mind, I said "generally."


Oh, the Pirates strategy makes sense (generally speaking).

'Buy low' and reap rewards if value proves higher. They're basically options or 'value' traders.

In this case it seems like passing up a more 'secure thing' due to the likelihood of slightly less 'return'.

While it could almost certainly be numerically proven that 1.0 WAR @ $5M is better 'value' than 2.0 WAR @ $12M, I'd still take the greater WAR since, in this case/my view, the determining factor is on-the-field product and not profits.

I do not know the current state of economics within the Pirates organization though, so my opinion is more 'fan biased' ('Just win, baby!').

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:45 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4999
Location: Washington, DC
Good stuff from Charlie Wilmoth on Burnett:

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2014/1/30/536 ... on-in-2014


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 5:50 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:11 pm
Posts: 3364
Location: Wheeling, WV
I'm not so much a live and die by the numbers guy. They are important yes but not the be all and end all. Look I'm just a fan who likes or dislikes players on their on field performances. I was a big fan of AJ until the second half of last year. His emotional instability at the end of regular season and surely in the playoffs sent me to the go ahead and retire camp. I'm just a fan not an obsessive statistic guy, and I've been ready to move on since October. Who needs a guy who questions being taken out so openly, and then not accepting his role of not getting the ball in the playoffs.

It's not the money issue to me but the attitude that this fan doesn't care for.

_________________
2011 Will Be Our Year -- well make that 2012 (just saying) So it looks like 2013 now - how long must this go on!
THIS IS IT-- NO MORE STREAK!!! *** Finally*** Time to win it in 2014


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:24 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4999
Location: Washington, DC
Greg Brown made it clear that the Pirates had no issue with Burnett's attitude and that Burnett's fiery nature did not impact the team's decision to offer him a contract or the amount of that contract.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:31 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4999
Location: Washington, DC
What disappoints me is that this was a money decision. The Pirates always said they'd spend when the team was ready to contend. That's now. And signing A.J. Burnett to a 1-year, $14.1 million deal (if he'd even take it) improves the team more than signing Edinson Volquez to a 1-year, $5 million deal. The difference between those signings is $9.1 million and the only motivation is money.

That makes me question whether the Pirates can be competitive in the long run. I certainly don't think the team's major league payroll should jump to St. Louis' in one year, but I think that's where it should end up if the Pirates field good, contending teams for a few years. Pittsburgh will support a good team. They did in 2013, and they will going forward. So revenue will increase. And Frank Coonelly said that the team's local television deal won't hold it back. A low-revenue local TV deal certainly isn't holding St. Louis back.

If the Pirates can't risk spending $14.1 million for one year of A.J. Burnett, does the team have any chance of signing Gerrit Cole or Pedro Alvarez or Gregory Polanco to expensive long-term contracts?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 11:35 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1405
Location: Eastern Shore
StarlingArcher wrote:
1. They aren't contenders. They're an older team with a lot of regression flags. They can't get suckered in to thinking they've made it and every move they make will lead to incremental improvements. It isn't likely to happen at this point.

I don't get this line of reasoning, SA. And I've read every post you've made on this board, and I value your input, but I'm baffled.

First off, how are we not contenders? I get your point that we benefited greatly by a near-perfect bullpen and Locke's amazing first half, but we had a near-historic bullpen in 2012 and MacDonald was pretty damn good the first half of 2012. We've had two epic collapses (2013's among the all time worst) and so we stumbled a bit late in the season last year. What I'm saying is that we have played some pretty darn good baseball for streaks over the past three years. We have made progress, and we may not have ridden any one player's career year to do so. We more than held our own in the most competitive division in baseball last year, and while I was hoping for improvement at 1B, other than Byrd, we haven't lost anyone significant to FA.

Regardless, though, whether you and I agree on whether "we've made it", what's wrong with trying to make incremental improvements? Isn't this the way to try and build? No one is arguing that we have to give a 29 year old Robinson Cano a 10 year deal. We're looking at our pitching and realizing that you can never ever ever have enough arms and looking to improve with a guy on a one year deal. I've fully bought into your argument that we shouldn't spend much on RF with Polanco coming up and how we'd lose contract flexibility if we did. But Burnett is not in this camp. We are going to need, what, 8 - 10 starting pitchers this year. There is all kind of room in the lineup for Taillon, if and when he does show up. We've got the TV money, so it's not like we're blowing up our financial future. I don't see how we can't not bring Burnett back.

But ultimately, if we're not trying to make the once in a lifetime, all in one fell swoop kind of deal, not trying to make incremental improvements, then we're left with one option: standing pat. Or are there any other options that I am missing here? I'm guessing that you think that giving the guys in the pipeline time to develop is progress. But that seems to be akin to some team saying we have to wait until next year to draft some more players.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10635
J_C_Steel wrote:
What disappoints me is that this was a money decision. The Pirates always said they'd spend when the team was ready to contend. That's now. And signing A.J. Burnett to a 1-year, $14.1 million deal (if he'd even take it) improves the team more than signing Edinson Volquez to a 1-year, $5 million deal. The difference between those signings is $9.1 million and the only motivation is money.


I certainly believe that money was a HUGE part of the decision, particularly since $9.1 million is a lot of money - 11% of the budget. However, I also believe that the Pirates were concerned in significant part about the return for the money.

Specifically, Burnett's utter dominance in innings 1-4 as compared to innings 5 and beyond, and his regression the 2nd half. We know that the Pirates have some very advanced internal metrics that they use in evaluating players, and I have little doubt but that those metrics told the team that Burnett will provide less than $14.1 million in value next year - perhaps a lot less.

J_C_Steel wrote:
If the Pirates can't risk spending $14.1 million for one year of A.J. Burnett, does the team have any chance of signing Gerrit Cole or Pedro Alvarez or Gregory Polanco to expensive long-term contracts?

Don't know what to say. The Pirates may just not have the budget to keep elite talent at market prices. Wonder-freaking-ful, but it is what it is.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4999
Location: Washington, DC
Bucfan wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If the Pirates can't risk spending $14.1 million for one year of A.J. Burnett, does the team have any chance of signing Gerrit Cole or Pedro Alvarez or Gregory Polanco to expensive long-term contracts?

Don't know what to say. The Pirates may just not have the budget to keep elite talent at market prices. Wonder-freaking-ful, but it is what it is.


With an increasing season ticket base and a decent local television deal (approximately on par with the one in St. Louis), there is no reason that the Pirates can't eventually spend around what the Cardinals do on payroll. If the Pirates never come close to that level over the next 3-6 years, then I will be greatly disappointed and, potentially, lose trust in the ownership of the team.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  YIM  Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:24 pm
Posts: 4171
Location: Zelienople, PA
The Pirates can never match St. Louis. Unless you hand over all of Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and parts of NY to match the Cards reach in the Mid-West.

You're dreaming.

You also seem to really like to spend others money.

ZM

_________________
Someone tell Votto... rbis are good


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:58 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2436
Location: Tejas
I think that they're closer to the team in the 2nd half than the team in the first half and, currently, I don't know that the offense is young enough to take a step forward this year.

They allowed the 3rd fewest runs in baseball since 2008 last year, which was fueled by an otherworldly bullpen and a defense that was far and away the best in baseball from an efficiency standpoint (both of those things dropped in the 2nd half to more normal levels).

I don't have Burnett as a guy who is worth even 1 win more than Taillon, and my argument has never been don't sign Burnett. It's that they need to sign him on a contract that's easy to move or eat because I don't think he's likely to repeat last year in terms of HR/9. His 2012 and 2013 weren't all that dissimilar in terms of BABIP or GB% but his HR/9 plummeted.

I think they can get similar value out of Taillon that they'd get from Burnett, while keeping the door open for Kingham, McPherson, Locke, Pimentel, etc to see some starts. We lose Wandy and Liriano this year, I'd prefer to not be throwing a bunch of guys to the fire since we'd have 6 rotation guys with Burnett. Which is why I want him to be moveable.

At this point, I just don't see much improvement from the offense....yet. The only viable major leaguer who is likely to show age related improvement is Marte, and he comes with red flags too since about 25 points of his OBP was tied to HBP. Not saying he'll regress, just not sure how much he'll progress in one year. I don't really know what to expect from Tabata or Lambo. I think Mercer is a utility player. Obviously Cutch, Pedro, and Walker are in their primes so you can expect them to more or less sustain their high level of play. I just don't see the offensive upside coming until Polanco, Hanson, and maybe TSanchez are up. But even then, not like Martin set the world on fire with the bat last year.

Basically, due to age I don't see a whole lot of room for improvement on either side of the diamond and I don't want to count on another hot half....because a cold half is likely as well.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:02 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2436
Location: Tejas
ZelieMike wrote:
The Pirates can never match St. Louis. Unless you hand over all of Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and parts of NY to match the Cards reach in the Mid-West.

You're dreaming.

You also seem to really like to spend others money.

ZM


According to the Bloomberg numbers they're at or near the bottom in ticket revenue, concessions, parking, etc.. They're 28th in media rights. The ticket/concession stuff is a fraction of the media rights.

Pirates will be lucky to be able to sustain a Top 20 payroll for more than 2 years at a time.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:16 pm 
Offline
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:47 pm
Posts: 297
StarlingArcher wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
The Pirates can never match St. Louis. Unless you hand over all of Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and parts of NY to match the Cards reach in the Mid-West.

You're dreaming.

You also seem to really like to spend others money.

ZM


According to the Bloomberg numbers they're at or near the bottom in ticket revenue, concessions, parking, etc.. They're 28th in media rights. The ticket/concession stuff is a fraction of the media rights.

Pirates will be lucky to be able to sustain a Top 20 payroll for more than 2 years at a time.


That simply isn't true. Most teams, gate receipts alone outpace the media rights.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:28 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2436
Location: Tejas
Good luck charging big city prices in Pittsburgh.

There's a reason media rights is the most predictive aspect of what a team's payroll will be.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:40 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 10:28 am
Posts: 1080
ZelieMike wrote:
The Pirates can never match St. Louis. Unless you hand over all of Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and parts of NY to match the Cards reach in the Mid-West.

You're dreaming.

You also seem to really like to spend others money.

ZM


You tend to seem to like to guard the vault door to guard someone elses money. Which is worse as a fan? I said in another post in another discussion, I don't care if Bob Nutting makes a single cent from owning the Pirates. I'm a fan. I care about getting every single win possible to get the best situation for the playoffs, and ultimately seeing the Pirates win the World Series.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:07 pm 
Offline
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:47 pm
Posts: 297
StarlingArcher wrote:
Good luck charging big city prices in Pittsburgh.

There's a reason media rights is the most predictive aspect of what a team's payroll will be.

Simply an opinion with no real basis. The Phillies have run huge payrolls with relatively modest media rights.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 2:56 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  YIM  Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 7:24 pm
Posts: 4171
Location: Zelienople, PA
Dr. Phibes wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
The Pirates can never match St. Louis. Unless you hand over all of Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, and parts of NY to match the Cards reach in the Mid-West.

You're dreaming.

You also seem to really like to spend others money.

ZM


You tend to seem to like to guard the vault door to guard someone elses money. Which is worse as a fan? I said in another post in another discussion, I don't care if Bob Nutting makes a single cent from owning the Pirates. I'm a fan. I care about getting every single win possible to get the best situation for the playoffs, and ultimately seeing the Pirates win the World Series.


I'm not guarding any door. Its not mine to guard. My point stated has always been that the Pirates put a value on the player and stick by it. They obviously don't see AJ as a 14 mil player, and I don't either. Would I like to sign him? Yep.

At 14 mil? Nope.

That isn't guarding anything. That is sticking by what you think is the right value for your team.

As opposed to looking at a bunch of cash and throwing your evaluation out the door because, well, you have a wad of cash that fans want you to spend.

ZM

_________________
Someone tell Votto... rbis are good


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: A.J. Burnett Will Pitch in 2014
PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2014 3:25 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2436
Location: Tejas
mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
Good luck charging big city prices in Pittsburgh.

There's a reason media rights is the most predictive aspect of what a team's payroll will be.

Simply an opinion with no real basis. The Phillies have run huge payrolls with relatively modest media rights.


And the Phillies are a massive market team with Media Rights and Sponsorships that are already 20% higher than the Pirates' BEFORE their new deal kicks in. So, yay, we found an exception in one of the biggest markets in the sport.

Right now our 3rd biggest source of revenue is revenue sharing (we wound up with a 35M net gain, 3rd biggest in baseball). So sure, let's get gate receipts into the top 20 or so (so move up 5 spots). Where does that leave us in revenue sharing now?

I could not care less about what other teams do because other teams aren't in the Pirates' situation.

When you're the 3rd biggest market in baseball, you can't be compared to a city roughly 1/5 your size. Especially when the city's not particularly wealthy and doesn't have much of a track record for passionate fanbases. Way too fickle and fairweather.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 105 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 4 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits