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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:40 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
nad69dan wrote:
His numbers weren't that bad for 2013. 16 HR's (Career High), his walk rate was up, his strike out rate was down, and he plays a good defense.

He was 9th in WAR for 2nd base, 8th in HR's among 2nd basemen, his BB rate ranked 7th, his ISO was 7th, his OBP was 9th, while his BABIP was among the lowest of all 2nd basemen - 15th at just .274.

That means if and when his BABIP normalizes to .310, his BA, OBP, slugging, R, RBI, etc. all increase notably. He is due for a big year, IMO.


Good analysis. I'd love to see Neil take that 2nd spot in the order and make it his by putting up an OBP over .360 and staying in the lineup and off the DL. He could really be a difference-maker offensively.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:39 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Good analysis. I'd love to see Neil take that 2nd spot in the order and make it his by putting up an OBP over .360 and staying in the lineup and off the DL. He could really be a difference-maker offensively.

Thank you.

And I need to shut up ... I just drove up his auction price. :x


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 3:58 pm 
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Pedro and Russell get no love from the mlb network shredder. Guests Mike Lowell and Dave Valle had them at the bottom of their respective lists (Valle actually had Martin 9th). The following third basemen did make the list, however, none of whom I would trade trade Pedro for straight up:

Martin Prado
Chase Headley
Pablo Sandoval
Brett Lawrie
Kyle Seager
Aramis Ramirez.

Meanwhile, mlb.com listed their top 40 second basemen. Walker came in 20th.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:39 pm 
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I wouldn't trade Alvarez for A-Ram either but at 35 years old Ramirez is still swinging a much better/more consistent bat than Pedro.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 6:59 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
I wouldn't trade Alvarez for A-Ram either but at 35 years old Ramirez is still swinging a much better/more consistent bat than Pedro.

The non-steroid dropoff among batters after the age of 35 and the very real possibility that Alvarez hits 120 HR's over the next 3 seasons make the comparison a rout.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:57 pm 
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Actually, Kinney had Martin at no. 9, Valle had him at no.6.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 9:22 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
I wouldn't trade Alvarez for A-Ram either but at 35 years old Ramirez is still swinging a much better/more consistent bat than Pedro.

The non-steroid dropoff among batters after the age of 35 and the very real possibility that Alvarez hits 120 HR's over the next 3 seasons make the comparison a rout.


Which is exactly why I wouldn't trade Alvarez for Ramirez. To this point Ramirez is the superior player though. I do agree that Pedro is way more valuable.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 9:25 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
To this point Ramirez is the superior player though.

I had thought that the rankings were for players for the 2014 season, not a ranking of players based upon years past.

If the rankings are for past seasons and among players still in MLB, then why isn't A-Rod the number 1 3rd baseman?


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 9:38 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
To this point Ramirez is the superior player though.

I had thought that the rankings were for players for the 2014 season, not a ranking of players based upon years past.

If the rankings are for past seasons and among players still in MLB, then why isn't A-Rod the number 1 3rd baseman?


They are but there has to be some element of past performance thrown into the equation, no? While there is some probability that he'll drop off, its not a guarantee. You can't rank on projection alone.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:05 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
nad69dan wrote:
His numbers weren't that bad for 2013. 16 HR's (Career High), his walk rate was up, his strike out rate was down, and he plays a good defense.

He was 9th in WAR for 2nd base, 8th in HR's among 2nd basemen, his BB rate ranked 7th, his ISO was 7th, his OBP was 9th, while his BABIP was among the lowest of all 2nd basemen - 15th at just .274.

That means if and when his BABIP normalizes to .310, his BA, OBP, slugging, R, RBI, etc. all increase notably. He is due for a big year, IMO.


I think it is a bit of reach to expect Walker's BABIP to return to .310. Left handed hitters in general are seeing BABIP dive thanks in part to aggressive shifting, and as the legs age that number tends to drop too. It should rebound some though. I'd say the .290 - .300 range is much more likely.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:16 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
I think it is a bit of reach to expect Walker's BABIP to return to .310. Left handed hitters in general are seeing BABIP dive thanks in part to aggressive shifting, and as the legs age that number tends to drop too. It should rebound some though. I'd say the .290 - .300 range is much more likely.

I base the projected BABIP of .310 on his career BABIP of .312. His BABIP has never been speed driven, and his line drive rate 23% last year was right in keeping with his career rate of 22.5%. He is 28 years old next season, hardly an age that is associated with a decline in batting skills.

His BABIP last year was lower due to simple luck. That is the point behind BABIP. Some years, batters are just plain luckier, and are heralded as having a "breakthrough" season based on a .315 batting average driven by an unsustainable BABIP of .360, or are described as having a "down year" due to a .251 batting average that stems in significant part from a BABIP of .274.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 10 Lists
PostPosted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:31 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
I think it is a bit of reach to expect Walker's BABIP to return to .310. Left handed hitters in general are seeing BABIP dive thanks in part to aggressive shifting, and as the legs age that number tends to drop too. It should rebound some though. I'd say the .290 - .300 range is much more likely.

I base the projected BABIP of .310 on his career BABIP of .312. His BABIP has never been speed driven, and his line drive rate 23% last year was right in keeping with his career rate of 22.5%. He is 28 years old next season, hardly an age that is associated with a decline in batting skills.

His BABIP last year was lower due to simple luck. That is the point behind BABIP. Some years, batters are just plain luckier, and are heralded as having a "breakthrough" season based on a .315 batting average driven by an unsustainable BABIP of .360, or are described as having a "down year" due to a .251 batting average that stems in significant part from a BABIP of .274.


I'll use the studies fangraphs have done on aging curves to refute your theory. By age 28 players are already seeing a decline as it pertains to BABIP

Image

BABIP is often associated with luck. And luck is huge element to it. But it isn't only about luck. Walker is not going to maintain the same BABIP rates as he did earlier in his career.


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