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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:29 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
I personally think we are better off without Loney. 8-) 8-)

Me too. A one year deal would have been okay, I could have gritted my teeth and accepted two years, but three years is way too much risk for a guy who has sucked so badly so recently.

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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:33 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If A.J. Burnett ends up pitching for the Orioles, then the Pirates made a mistake by failing to extend him a qualifying offer. It's that simple.

Not if they had no intention of paying him $14M.


Are you suggesting that the Pirates' decision not to pay him $14M is infallible? I don't. If Burnett pitches for another team in 2014, I believe the Pirates made a mistake. All you're suggesting is that it may have been motivated by money. That doesn't make it "right."

All decisions on signings are absolutely driven by money, and that goes for every team in baseball.

If Burnett pitches for another team in 2014 and sucks, was it still a mistake? If he pitches for another team and falls back to the level of an average starting pitcher was it a mistake?

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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:33 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
If Burnett pitches for another team in 2014 and sucks, was it still a mistake? If he pitches for another team and falls back to the level of an average starting pitcher was it a mistake?


How he pitches in Baltimore against the AL East has nothing to do with how he'd perform in PNC Park for the Pirates. I believe we already learned that (compare his 2010-11 seasons with the Yankees to his 2012-13 seasons with the Pirates). So, uh, yes, it's still a mistake. We know what A.J. Burnett can do for THIS team in THIS ballpark. The only way I'd say it wasn't a mistake is if the hypothetical decrease in his performance involves a loss in velocity and/or break in his knuckle curve. But that seems unlikely, given that he actually had a better 2013 than 2012 and maintained his velocity/break throughout the year.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:45 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
Show me where I say buying free agents guarantees production please. Didn't happen. Don't put words in my mouth. Yes, a couple of first pick in the draft guys and a top 10 pick emerged. Wow.

Are you suggesting that MORE of their top picks should be in the majors by now? Out of the eight, two are up, one was up and showed promise last year, one will be entering the rotation this year at the ripe old age of 22, and two are less than a year out of high school. How are they supposed to be doing betting than that?

If you don't believe that free agents come with guarantees, exactly what is it that you are complaining about? Every free agent first baseman in the market this year came with an enormous question mark attached. If you're going to have to take a huge chance, I'd much rather take it with a Lambo or McGuinness than spend $20M or more on nearly the same amount of risk.


No I am not suggesting more of their top picks should be in the majors by now. Their top picks, being their first rounders, have mostly hit. We will see with Sanchez and Taillon once they emerge. What I am saying, is that I have read on here that first basemen are easy to come by yet in 7 years of drafts we can't come by one. My point was that they have not only had the first pick in the draft multiple times in that 7 years, but also the first pick in the 2nd, 3rd, etc.

My main problem is that the 1B and RF holes were holes we had last year, they had to trade to try and fill them, and they are still holes. People can clamor all they want about the success Tabata had last year, or blame Sniders lack of success on his injury, but that injury issue is what has held them back for more than just last year and will most likely occur again this year. When is the last season Tabata had a healthy year all year? Injuries were why Snider was available for trade. At least in RF we have a solution rising up through the ranks in Polanco.

At first base we got zilch. I'd prefer Lambo and McGuinness prove themselves in AAA as ready to emerge instead of holding tryouts for the position. Signing a Loney or a Morneau doesn't lock you in on them for 3 years. Players can be traded. If Lambo or McGuiness had a great year in AAA for a full season then I'd be more comfortable with a promotion as a starting MLB and at that point you could trade those guys and unload the salary. Or maybe they would actually be worth the salary and you have depth instead of just handing jobs to unproven players.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Thu Jan 09, 2014 11:38 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 1:31 pm 
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I don't believe Burnett (or anyone else) would choose retirement, over 9 months of work for >$10MM plus insane benefits ... regardless of team.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:21 pm 
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Dave Augustine wrote:
I don't believe Burnett (or anyone else) would choose retirement, over 9 months of work for >$10MM plus insane benefits ... regardless of team.


What makes you think it's strictly a money decision? He's been collecting MLB salaries for 15 years. It's probably more about just whether he (and his body) want to keep going as he gets into his upper 30s.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:28 pm 
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>> What makes you think it's strictly a money decision?

When the figures bandied about exceed $10 huge, then it's still a money decision.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 3:05 pm 
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Dave Augustine wrote:
When the figures bandied about exceed $10 huge, then it's still a money decision.


But it's not like he's going to get much over that. The qualifying offer was $14M which the Pirates obviously chose not to invest in, and I'm sure their cap was around $10M. I predicted he'd maybe get something like a $12M incentive-laden deal elsewhere, maybe 2/$20M but very doubtful for a multi-year deal at his age and his already publicly flirting with retirement. Obviously if an unexpected huge offer was to happen, then I'd agree that the money would trump the decision. As it stands, I don't know how much a figure a little more or a little less than $10M really has to do with it with the 15 years of salary he's already made in the league. Given that he very realistically won't be blown away with an offer he can't refuse (there isn't even any proof that another team was going to offer him around what the qualifying offer was besides the Orioles saying they were interested, but we don't know what they were hypothetically offering), then it's ultimately a personal decision for if he wants to keep going. He didn't talk about possibly retiring before last season was over for nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:07 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
If Burnett pitches for another team in 2014 and sucks, was it still a mistake? If he pitches for another team and falls back to the level of an average starting pitcher was it a mistake?


How he pitches in Baltimore against the AL East has nothing to do with how he'd perform in PNC Park for the Pirates. I believe we already learned that (compare his 2010-11 seasons with the Yankees to his 2012-13 seasons with the Pirates). So, uh, yes, it's still a mistake. We know what A.J. Burnett can do for THIS team in THIS ballpark. The only way I'd say it wasn't a mistake is if the hypothetical decrease in his performance involves a loss in velocity and/or break in his knuckle curve. But that seems unlikely, given that he actually had a better 2013 than 2012 and maintained his velocity/break throughout the year.

Well now, that argument works both ways. You could turn it around and say that any cheap stiff who puts up a 5.00 ERA with the Yankees would be a near All Star in Pittsburgh.

No, we don't know what A.J. Burnett can do for this team in this ballpark. We only know what he has done in the past. He's not a young pitcher on the rise, he's an old pitcher who can't even decide whether or not he still wants to pitch. I'd say that expecting him to repeat his performances from the last two seasons is living in a dream world.

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 Post subject: Re: Appears Burnett not coming back
PostPosted: Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:25 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
Show me where I say buying free agents guarantees production please. Didn't happen. Don't put words in my mouth. Yes, a couple of first pick in the draft guys and a top 10 pick emerged. Wow.

Are you suggesting that MORE of their top picks should be in the majors by now? Out of the eight, two are up, one was up and showed promise last year, one will be entering the rotation this year at the ripe old age of 22, and two are less than a year out of high school. How are they supposed to be doing betting than that?

If you don't believe that free agents come with guarantees, exactly what is it that you are complaining about? Every free agent first baseman in the market this year came with an enormous question mark attached. If you're going to have to take a huge chance, I'd much rather take it with a Lambo or McGuinness than spend $20M or more on nearly the same amount of risk.


No I am not suggesting more of their top picks should be in the majors by now. Their top picks, being their first rounders, have mostly hit. We will see with Sanchez and Taillon once they emerge. What I am saying, is that I have read on here that first basemen are easy to come by yet in 7 years of drafts we can't come by one. My point was that they have not only had the first pick in the draft multiple times in that 7 years, but also the first pick in the 2nd, 3rd, etc.

My main problem is that the 1B and RF holes were holes we had last year, they had to trade to try and fill them, and they are still holes. People can clamor all they want about the success Tabata had last year, or blame Sniders lack of success on his injury, but that injury issue is what has held them back for more than just last year and will most likely occur again this year. When is the last season Tabata had a healthy year all year? Injuries were why Snider was available for trade. At least in RF we have a solution rising up through the ranks in Polanco.

At first base we got zilch. I'd prefer Lambo and McGuinness prove themselves in AAA as ready to emerge instead of holding tryouts for the position. Signing a Loney or a Morneau doesn't lock you in on them for 3 years. Players can be traded. If Lambo or McGuiness had a great year in AAA for a full season then I'd be more comfortable with a promotion as a starting MLB and at that point you could trade those guys and unload the salary. Or maybe they would actually be worth the salary and you have depth instead of just handing jobs to unproven players.

Most first basemen are not drafted as first basemen. Most first basemen are moved there after proving that they couldn't handle a more demanding position, or to fill a hole. Most guys who are drafted as first basemen never see the major leagues. They're too slow, or they can't field, or their swings are too long (see Eldred, Brad for all three). First base for the Pirates in their early 90s heyday was manned by a sore armed thirty something former outfielder who had never played the position before coming the the Pirates, and an unproven rookie who was originally drafted as a shortstop, but would eventually end up in right field.

I'm not blaming Snider's bad year on his injury. I'm saying that they won't have to tolerate a repeat performance for anywhere near the number of plate appearances he had last year, because they have other options. I'm not saying that Tabata will stay healthy. I'm saying that they have options to replace him if he goes down.

Lambo dominated AAA pitching for 258 plate appearances last year. There's nothing left for him to learn there. It's time to see what he can do at the next level. If he can't handle it, oh well. As you said, players can be traded, which means that players can be traded FOR, as long as they don't have an albatross of a contract hanging around their necks, as Loney does, or totally suck, like Morneau does.

Every player in MLB was once an "unproven" player. Hell, you could down the Cardinals playoff roster and list a ton of them. Sooner or later, you have to take the plunge, and it's that time for Lambo. If he doesn't work out, oh well. As you said above, you can always make a trade, right? Just hopefully for somebody better than Morneau, I would hope.

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