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 Post subject: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:58 pm 
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I'm not too familiar on the rules with the qualifying offers and the draft pick compensations, but this article say the draft pick compensation is forfeited in June if the player goes unsigned. Could the Pirates survive two months of average to sub-average play at 1st base until Morales is available?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees ... 09610.html

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The argument to sign Morales, the player, is quite strong. He can field at first base reasonably well. He slugged .449 despite playing home games in the cavern that is Safeco Field. He is a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order bat. Teams need that. Take a team like Oakland, which is going all-in this year. He would make the A's even stronger favorites to win their third straight AL West title.

That said, Morales is not just Morales, the player. The first-base/DH market is oversaturated to the point that the idea of giving up a draft pick for one makes Morales a non-starter in plenty of front offices. The perception is bad enough that one GM with a strong sense of the market echoed the sentiment proffered by Peter Gammons: That Morales may be better off waiting until after the June draft to sign. Draft-pick compensation no longer would be attached to him, and teams would be far more open-minded about signing Morales.

While the GM said that's the scenario he thinks will play out, we must remember: Scott Boras is Morales' agent, too. And nobody pulls rabbits out of a hat quite like Boras. So if history repeats itself ...

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:46 pm 
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What I find odd is why would the Pirates so willingly trade the #35 pick in the draft plus Gorkyz Hernandez, for Gaby Sanchez. But it's almost viewed as a ridiculous notion to say give the #27 pick up for a player that would easily make your team better and is better than Gaby.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 8:49 am 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
What I find odd is why would the Pirates so willingly trade the #35 pick in the draft plus Gorkyz Hernandez, for Gaby Sanchez. But it's almost viewed as a ridiculous notion to say give the #27 pick up for a player that would easily make your team better and is better than Gaby.


I agree. Picking in at the bottom of the 1st round isn't going to land you any better or worse talent than round 2.

However, giving up the slot budget I think is the bigger issue.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 11:17 am 
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I think with the Pirates' propensity for defensive shifting in the infield, they value defense at 1B. Everything I've read suggests Morales is more of a DH than a 1B.

I don't see NH going for that. And certainly not valuing that type of player as much as an AL team that can use him as a DH would.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 11:51 am 
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I also think it's easier to give up your 32nd pick when you have 2 first round picks well before your compensatory pick.

They already knew at that point that they hadn't signed Appel since the new deadline pushes that stuff into mid-July.

Far different situation than giving up your first round pick when you don't pick again until after Comp A and then most of the teams in the 2nd round. Even this past year they still picked way earlier in the 2nd than they will this year. I think if they'd gotten in the Comp A instead of Comp B round it might be more of a debate for sure.

Especially since Morales isn't more than a short term fix at this stage.

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:06 pm 
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Well, NH has shown he won't be rushed, or pushed into giving up too much. Seeing some of the signings so far, they look ugly for the teams that signed.

Would I give a 1st round comp pick for Morales? I think so, especially if I had another.

I don't know that Ike gets more than a promising relief pitcher or AA starter.

You might be able to pressure the M's into unloading Smoak below value.

We'll see.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:17 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
What I find odd is why would the Pirates so willingly trade the #35 pick in the draft plus Gorkyz Hernandez, for Gaby Sanchez. But it's almost viewed as a ridiculous notion to say give the #27 pick up for a player that would easily make your team better and is better than Gaby.


In addition to StarlingArcher's assessment of the compensation picks, I'll also defend the Gaby trade. It was pretty mandatory to acquire a 1B who could hit LHP considering their only 1B at the time was a platoon player who was likely to decline soon with age and couldn't hit LHP (and that turned out to be true). Imagine what the Pirates 1B production would have looked like last year with Jones tanking if Gaby hadn't hit LHP at an elite level (and posted the team's best BB%). Despite how many times Hurdle insists on giving him so many ABs against righties, he has been an asset. Also, Gorkys was a toss-in. What you saw of him briefly as a late inning defensive replacement was as far as he'd ever get in the Pirates organization with their surplus of speedy corner OF.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:38 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
What I find odd is why would the Pirates so willingly trade the #35 pick in the draft plus Gorkyz Hernandez, for Gaby Sanchez. But it's almost viewed as a ridiculous notion to say give the #27 pick up for a player that would easily make your team better and is better than Gaby.


In addition to StarlingArcher's assessment of the compensation picks, I'll also defend the Gaby trade. It was pretty mandatory to acquire a 1B who could hit LHP considering their only 1B at the time was a platoon player who was likely to decline soon with age and couldn't hit LHP (and that turned out to be true). Imagine what the Pirates 1B production would have looked like last year with Jones tanking if Gaby hadn't hit LHP at an elite level (and posted the team's best BB%). Despite how many times Hurdle insists on giving him so many ABs against righties, he has been an asset. Also, Gorkys was a toss-in. What you saw of him briefly as a late inning defensive replacement was as far as he'd ever get in the Pirates organization with their surplus of speedy corner OF.


There are more RHP than LHP that we will face. Is our situation not more dire now that we only have a 1B that hits LHP well? I'm not banking on Lambo. Guy is hitting .200 and not flashing power at all in a league comparable to A ball or AA tops.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:56 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Well, NH has shown he won't be rushed, or pushed into giving up too much. Seeing some of the signings so far, they look ugly for the teams that signed.

Would I give a 1st round comp pick for Morales? I think so, especially if I had another.

I don't know that Ike gets more than a promising relief pitcher or AA starter.

You might be able to pressure the M's into unloading Smoak below value.

We'll see.

ZM


I agree, I think a big issue is that we have a 2nd round comp pick this year. And not a good one. I believe we pick 5th or something in the Comp B round out of 6 teams.

So if we give up the first rounder we'd be looking at our first pick at #63 or so (don't know off-hand how many guys didn't sign). We had 3 picks by that point last year, and that's without the Comp A pick we received.

Combine that with the fact that Morales is looking for more than 14M (a huge chunk of a budget) at a non-premium position and is a short-term option, it's tough to justify coughing up the 1st rounder at this stage.

Might as well just see how desperate teams get to move guys as the year approaches. Mets are holding out for a Kingham type right now....see if they drop down to a more realistic Cumpton type of asking price and then start bargaining in earnest. Have no idea what the M's want for Smoak but he's no more valuable than that range.

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:19 pm 
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The more the cost comes down on Morales the more it starts to make sense. No way Morales gets $14 million a year. Sitting out part of the year until June isn't a great way to build value either. And he is at the point in his career where not maximizing earnings is a big risk. His best bet is probably to save face by getting as much over $14 million guaranteed on a 2 year deal. Maybe 2 years and $19 million is the best he can do. At least he and Boras can take some satisfaction in getting 5 million more in guaranteed cash than he would have had he accepted the QO from Seattle. The lower the number falls the more the Pirates should start looking at it as an option. That is if they feel Morales can play defensively enough to justify it. I have my doubts that he can physically perform as an everyday 1B. Personally, I'd stay away for that reason. That was the same issue I had with Corey Hart. Physically just too much of a question mark. This is where it hurts to be an NL team.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:21 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
There are more RHP than LHP that we will face. Is our situation not more dire now that we only have a 1B that hits LHP well? I'm not banking on Lambo. Guy is hitting .200 and not flashing power at all in a league comparable to A ball or AA tops.


No, I don't think it's more dire now because if Gaby isn't acquired, you would now be left with zero 1B options after Jones tanked. Now they at least only have one half of the platoon to fill rather than just spending the last two years riding out Jones and his inability to hit LHP.

Lambo has had 30 ABs. Feel free to write him off as a .200 hitter with no power from that sample size if you wish.

I'm not arguing that there isn't a hole to fix with the current 1B outlook. But acquiring Gaby wasn't a problem, nor am I attempting to draw finite conclusions of a 25-year old with 30 ABs.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:27 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
There are more RHP than LHP that we will face. Is our situation not more dire now that we only have a 1B that hits LHP well? I'm not banking on Lambo. Guy is hitting .200 and not flashing power at all in a league comparable to A ball or AA tops.


No, I don't think it's more dire now because if Gaby isn't acquired, you would now be left with zero 1B options after Jones tanked. Now they at least only have one half of the platoon to fill rather than just spending the last two years riding out Jones and his inability to hit LHP.

Lambo has had 30 ABs. Feel free to write him off as a .200 hitter with no power from that sample size if you wish.

I'm not arguing that there isn't a hole to fix with the current 1B outlook. But acquiring Gaby wasn't a problem, nor am I attempting to draw finite conclusions of a 25-year old with 30 ABs.


Not saying I a writing him off at all. Just saying I wouldn't 'bank' on him, meaning hand him the job. I'd rather he go to AAA, play 1B there, and prove he can repeat what he did last year thus earning the promotion.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:46 pm 
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I think anyone counting on Lambo is counting on a big risk. Yeah, he hit a lot of HR's in the minors, but so did Chad Hermanson. I think we know how NH and the FO feels because of how they used him last year, which is pretty much not all.

A shot? Yeah, I suppose so, but with a very quick hook if he shows you he is reverting back to his .205 form of two years ago.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:59 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I think anyone counting on Lambo is counting on a big risk. Yeah, he hit a lot of HR's in the minors, but so did Chad Hermanson. I think we know how NH and the FO feels because of how they used him last year, which is pretty much not all.

A shot? Yeah, I suppose so, but with a very quick hook if he shows you he is reverting back to his .205 form of two years ago.

ZM


To me we should be beyond the 'giving a guy a chance' stage and moved on to the 'beating down the door forcing our hand' stage. Was it prior to last season, or the one before, that NH declared the days of scholarships over?


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 2:14 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I think anyone counting on Lambo is counting on a big risk. Yeah, he hit a lot of HR's in the minors, but so did Chad Hermanson. I think we know how NH and the FO feels because of how they used him last year, which is pretty much not all.

A shot? Yeah, I suppose so, but with a very quick hook if he shows you he is reverting back to his .205 form of two years ago.

ZM


This is true, but everything is a risk at 1B unfortunately. You're either taking on a failed prospect and hoping he turns it around or you're overpaying for an older player and hoping he doesn't tank.

Lambo is definitely the cheapest risk, as he costs you nothing more than an option if he bombs. You can get rid of him the quickest/easiest and hamstring yourself the least with him. You still have money to add a guy in-season and don't have to worry about a bad contract on the books in an offseason after you lose Liriano, Wandy, Russ, Volquez if he's good, and likely need to replace Mercer (and yes, we have potential replacements for all of those guys in the minors but they don't have track records either and could also bust like Lambo).

Maybe he bombs, maybe he doesn't, but there isn't much damage done if he does. I don't think his lack of track record is particularly damning. I know familiar names are usually more comforting, and I get that, but we aren't really looking at stellar track records on these other guys. Definitely paying more for name value than game value at the current prices.

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:12 pm 
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Well we'll see what the current prices are. What a guy or a team is asking for and what they will settle for are 2 different things. But Cumpton for Davis is not going to get it done.

There is too much consternation over Lambo right now. It's December. Neil will come up with a first baseman, and Lambo will start the season in AAA. He only played a couple months at that level and will have to prove himself again, I think.


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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Tue Dec 24, 2013 7:05 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
What I find odd is why would the Pirates so willingly trade the #35 pick in the draft plus Gorkyz Hernandez, for Gaby Sanchez. But it's almost viewed as a ridiculous notion to say give the #27 pick up for a player that would easily make your team better and is better than Gaby.



If Morales cost $2 mil a year, they'd probably give up the 1st for him.

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 Post subject: Re: Sanchez/Lambo Until June, Then Sign Morales?
PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Well we'll see what the current prices are. What a guy or a team is asking for and what they will settle for are 2 different things. But Cumpton for Davis is not going to get it done.

There is too much consternation over Lambo right now. It's December. Neil will come up with a first baseman, and Lambo will start the season in AAA. He only played a couple months at that level and will have to prove himself again, I think.

I'm not too worried, even if they can't get a good deal before the season starts. They can go with Lambo. All of the stiffs that are available now will still be available in May and June.

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