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 Post subject: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:03 pm 
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http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/ ... er=ya5nbcs

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A source told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that the Cardinals and shortstop Jhonny Peralta are “closing in” on a deal.

The word Friday from MLB.com’s Peter Gammons was that Peralta already had a four-year, $52 million contract offer on the table.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:24 pm 
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Most rumors had teams looking at him as an OF. Interested to see if the Cards are going to pray on he doesn't get exposed too much at SS or if they're going to sign him as a OF and deal Tavares for a young SS.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 12:23 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Most rumors had teams looking at him as an OF. Interested to see if the Cards are going to pray on he doesn't get exposed too much at SS or if they're going to sign him as a OF and deal Tavares for a young SS.


Look at Peralta's UZR at shortstop. He's been quite good. He's a big upgrade for the Cards at shortstop with the stick, and likely also with the glove. Adding Bourjos -- an incredibly good defensive center fielder -- really helps their outfield defense. Taveras will get his shot in right field, and he'll be a defensive upgrade as well (albeit an offensive downgrade from Beltran).

Alternatively, the Cards could start Peralta at 3B, where he's also a plus defender (though not as valuable with the bat).

All in all, the Cardinals are improving their roster, especially defensively.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 12:43 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
Most rumors had teams looking at him as an OF. Interested to see if the Cards are going to pray on he doesn't get exposed too much at SS or if they're going to sign him as a OF and deal Tavares for a young SS.


Look at Peralta's UZR at shortstop. He's been quite good. He's a big upgrade for the Cards at shortstop with the stick, and likely also with the glove. Adding Bourjos -- an incredibly good defensive center fielder -- really helps their outfield defense. Taveras will get his shot in right field, and he'll be a defensive upgrade as well (albeit an offensive downgrade from Beltran).

Alternatively, the Cards could start Peralta at 3B, where he's also a plus defender (though not as valuable with the bat).

All in all, the Cardinals are improving their roster, especially defensively.


Peralta was very good in 2011 and 2012 according to UZR. I know Cards fans wanted to kill Kozma at many points last year but it doesn't look like he's THAT bad with the glove (there probably aren't enough innings at SS to say). I admittedly haven't studied either of their performances with the glove though so I can't really make a claim for sure.

Seems like a good deal all around for the Cards, at least until Peralta can't play SS anymore.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 1:11 pm 
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From Buster Olney's blog:

The Cardinals have an established tradition of stuffing good hitters into the No. 2 spot in their lineup. They could use Peralta there, or shift Matt Carpenter into that spot. This is what the St. Louis lineup could look like in 2014, depending on what they do with Wong.

3B Matt Carpenter
SS Peralta
LF Matt Holliday
RF Allen Craig
1B Matt Adams
C Yadier Molina
2B Kolten Wong
CF Peter Bourjos


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:16 pm 
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I think he's pretty fringy now at age 31. Not sure he'll still be that in 2 years, let alone 4. Might be in Jeter territory sooner rather than later.

Reading a writeup from Law, there's apparently some smoke coming from Washington that they might be wiling to move Desmond.

He's 28 but for the right price I'd be intrigued. Hanson got mentioned earlier but I'm not expecting him up until 2015. He might have another huge season and skyrocket up again but a 21 year old in AA is facing a pretty steep task. He can do it, but I wouldn't put good odds on it. Very encouraging long-term for him however.

Desmond will bring a better bat and glove than we currently have there and his control will be up in 2 years, which will coincide with Hanson's arrival and his age 30 year. Wouldn't sell the farm for him but it might be worth kicking the tires. With such little control left there's a chance the asking price isn't completely unreasonable. Then again, Rizzo. So who knows.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:41 pm 
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Jeez. They are aggressive this offseason. Their GM is getting it done. Have holes.....fills holes plus upgrades other spots without trading prospects away.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 5:57 pm 
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Yeah, for a team that just participated in a World Series, they are pretty aggressive.

I don't know much about UZR, but I think the general consensus is that Perahlta is subpar defensively. If so, he joins Craig and Holliday in that regard, and I'm not so sure about Adams at first. The Bucs will be a better team than them defensively, I think.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:12 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
Jeez. They are aggressive this offseason. Their GM is getting it done. Have holes.....fills holes plus upgrades other spots without trading prospects away.



It's a bit easier to not move prospects when you can afford to give a 31-year old PED shortstop $13 mil a year.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:49 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
Jeez. They are aggressive this offseason. Their GM is getting it done. Have holes.....fills holes plus upgrades other spots without trading prospects away.



It's a bit easier to not move prospects when you can afford to give a 31-year old PED shortstop $13 mil a year.


If you are strictly saying Peralta will not be worth that much, that is one thing. If you are saying the Pirates are poor and could not afford 13 million to plug holes, that is another. I have read our current (before today's movements) 40 man roster projection is $63 million, and it can be argued with the national TV money they could afford up to 95 to 100 million.

So, can they and will they plug their holes with viable MLB players when they showed they were a contender?

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/10 ... -2014.html


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:04 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
Jeez. They are aggressive this offseason. Their GM is getting it done. Have holes.....fills holes plus upgrades other spots without trading prospects away.



It's a bit easier to not move prospects when you can afford to give a 31-year old PED shortstop $13 mil a year.


If you are strictly saying Peralta will not be worth that much, that is one thing. If you are saying the Pirates are poor and could not afford 13 million to plug holes, that is another. I have read our current (before today's movements) 40 man roster projection is $63 million, and it can be argued with the national TV money they could afford up to 95 to 100 million.

So, can they and will they plug their holes with viable MLB players when they showed they were a contender?

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/10 ... -2014.html


Yes.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:20 pm 
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They have more questions than answers so I don't think sinking money into players is prudent for the Pirates at this point.

Also not sure they proved they were contenders. It was a good year, but there are some warning signs that there could be repeatability issues this year.

Plus the Cards have, literally, zero internal options at SS and their window is starting to close. Opposite situation for the Pirates.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 9:57 pm 
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Good point about the more questions than answers...

I guess I'm just kind of baffled that people seem to think that NH doesn't have a plan. He has had a pretty well defined plan since he came here and last year he proved that he can successfully alter the plan to make it work (see: right field).


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:25 pm 
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I think the problem is they had a year where they caught a bunch of breaks so it spurred a believe that they arrived and the plan was fully executed.

They still had quite a few old players. More than you'd want.

They need to figure out what they have in Lambo, T Sanchez, Polanco, and get a better feel on Hanson. So you can't block them and you don't want to tie up resources in case one of them flames out and you need to be able to sign a free agent.

Add in the pitching, with Liriano and Rodriguez gone after this year, AJ a mystery, and Locke a question mark as well and you have a lot of potential holes. They need to figure out this year where the holes are going to be moving forward and then fill that in with free agent signings.

That's how they'll build the best team on a budget. They'll never be able to keep up with the Joneses, unfortunately.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 10:45 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Good point about the more questions than answers...

I guess I'm just kind of baffled that people seem to think that NH doesn't have a plan. He has had a pretty well defined plan since he came here and last year he proved that he can successfully alter the plan to make it work (see: right field).


Just my opinion but NH has hit about .250 on SP buy low theory, .400 at bullpen building if not higher, and about .100 on position player evaluation. Baffled is a rather strong word. I'm all for maxing out the potential of the current roster and seeing what this crew can do while allowing the fresh crop to infiltrate the roster.

Build on the momentum with your team, and your fan base. Yes, we have prospects in the pipeline, but nothing and nobodies career is guaranteed. Build on the now and in 4 or 5 years when the TV deal is up cash in with a team that made the playoffs 3 or 4 out of the 5 years instead of one counting on Lyle Overbay, Barajas, or Sanchez to bounce back.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Mon Nov 25, 2013 11:05 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
Good point about the more questions than answers...

I guess I'm just kind of baffled that people seem to think that NH doesn't have a plan. He has had a pretty well defined plan since he came here and last year he proved that he can successfully alter the plan to make it work (see: right field).


Just my opinion but NH has hit about .250 on SP buy low theory, .400 at bullpen building if not higher, and about .100 on position player evaluation. Baffled is a rather strong word. I'm all for maxing out the potential of the current roster and seeing what this crew can do while allowing the fresh crop to infiltrate the roster.

Build on the momentum with your team, and your fan base. Yes, we have prospects in the pipeline, but nothing and nobodies career is guaranteed. Build on the now and in 4 or 5 years when the TV deal is up cash in with a team that made the playoffs 3 or 4 out of the 5 years instead of one counting on Lyle Overbay, Barajas, or Sanchez to bounce back.


I don't understand what you're saying... In one paragraph you say you want to max out the potential of the current roster and let the young guys come up and earn their keep. In another you're saying you want to sell out and hope that they'll win and get a big TV deal in 5 years. Which is it?

I can tell you which one it isn't going to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 12:09 am 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
JollyRoger wrote:
Good point about the more questions than answers...

I guess I'm just kind of baffled that people seem to think that NH doesn't have a plan. He has had a pretty well defined plan since he came here and last year he proved that he can successfully alter the plan to make it work (see: right field).


Just my opinion but NH has hit about .250 on SP buy low theory, .400 at bullpen building if not higher, and about .100 on position player evaluation. Baffled is a rather strong word. I'm all for maxing out the potential of the current roster and seeing what this crew can do while allowing the fresh crop to infiltrate the roster.

Build on the momentum with your team, and your fan base. Yes, we have prospects in the pipeline, but nothing and nobodies career is guaranteed. Build on the now and in 4 or 5 years when the TV deal is up cash in with a team that made the playoffs 3 or 4 out of the 5 years instead of one counting on Lyle Overbay, Barajas, or Sanchez to bounce back.


I don't understand what you're saying... In one paragraph you say you want to max out the potential of the current roster and let the young guys come up and earn their keep. In another you're saying you want to sell out and hope that they'll win and get a big TV deal in 5 years. Which is it?

I can tell you which one it isn't going to be.


Sorry that isn't clear. Fill known gaps now (1B, SP, SS) , then fill in when you have internal answers ready.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 12:20 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think the problem is they had a year where they caught a bunch of breaks so it spurred a believe that they arrived and the plan was fully executed.

They still had quite a few old players. More than you'd want.

They need to figure out what they have in Lambo, T Sanchez, Polanco, and get a better feel on Hanson. So you can't block them and you don't want to tie up resources in case one of them flames out and you need to be able to sign a free agent.

Add in the pitching, with Liriano and Rodriguez gone after this year, AJ a mystery, and Locke a question mark as well and you have a lot of potential holes. They need to figure out this year where the holes are going to be moving forward and then fill that in with free agent signings.

That's how they'll build the best team on a budget. They'll never be able to keep up with the Joneses, unfortunately.


The plan will never be "fully executed." That's not how sports (particularly baseball) works. The roster, the cash flow, the prospects, the availability of free agents -- all of it is constantly in flux. The point is to create a team that can consistently compete for a championship in a changing climate. THAT is Neal Huntington's challenge.

If you look at the 2013 season, plenty of things went WRONG. The Pirates suffered numerous injuries to the starting rotation, with Burnett, Liriano, Locke, Rodriguez, and Morton all spending time on the disabled list -- in fact, Rodriguez, Morton, and Liriano (three of the Pirates' most effective starters) missed large chunks of the season. Neil Walker and Starling Marte also spent plenty of time on the DL, while Pedro Alvarez didn't find his bat until May. Garrett Jones suffered a serious downgrade in his production at first base and right field, leaving Clint Hurdle to play Gaby Sanchez against waaaaaay too many right-handed starting pitchers. Jonathan Sanchez started several games for the Pirates, which is a hardship itself.

Let's not pretend like the Pirates "got all the breaks" in 2013. They didn't. They were a solid team that got consistently good work from the bullpen, showcased a deep stable of starters, shifted the defense into good results, received an MVP season from McCutchen, and eeked out a decent offense. It was a legitimate 94-win team that could have won the division and took the NL pennant winners to an elimination game.

Accordingly, the 2014 season is not about "figuring out what they have"; rather, it's about crafting a team that can once again compete for a championship. That means improving at first base, bringing back A.J. (or another veteran pitcher capable of throwing 200+ solid innings), upgrading at back-up catcher by swapping in Tony Sanchez for Michael McKenry, and continuing to nurture the top prospects by not pushing them to the majors too fast.

You definitely won't see Alen Hanson play at the major league level in 2014, and I don't think Gregory Polanco will be called up until July at the earliest. Jameson Taillon might be called up in June, but only if injury or ineffectiveness dictates it and he's ready.


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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 12:47 am 
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Huntington building a consistent winner can only be done with filling as many holes as possible with young players.

Shifting guys in and out for one year fixes will never get that done, we don't have the payroll.

Based on how things work out, we could be looking at 8 major holes after this season. We can't fill those holes with retreads and expect the same results for any sort of prolonged period of time (we don't have the money to fill 8 holes with good players unless we're taking on a ton of bounceback risk and praying for everything to break right).

They need to go into next offseason with questions answered about where your 2-3 biggest needs are. That's what'll allow them to sign veterans to 4 year type deals instead of 2 year stopgap deals.

If we keep trying to fill holes with cheap guys desperate enough to take 1-2 year deals, it's going to collapse eventually. Fill as many holes as possible with youngsters this year, spend on quality guys for your final few holes next year.

That's how they'll build something sustainable. It's the only way for a small market team to do it. Spending won't get it done because a hole now might not be a hole 2 years from now.

You have potential solutions to all 8 of the potential holes in the upper minors....it's not like they're delaying things forever. Figure out what you have in Polanco, Tony Sanchez, Lambo, Taillon, Pimentel, Irwin, maybe Kingham. See if Hanson has the chops to hang at SS in the high-minors. The worst thing that could happen to the Pirates is to sign a guy to a long-term deal, have somebody flame out at a different position, and then be stuck with a contract we can't move and a massive hole we have to fill with a guy off the scrap heap because our money is tied up elsewhere.

Once the bullpen pitched to its normal standard, the defense normalized (it was still good -- ended 5th in all of baseball in defensive efficiency -- but not record-breakingly good anymore), and Locke regressed back to his mean we were a .500 ballclub. They'll be fine this year, but this isn't a year to go all-in or a time to sign a veteran to a long-term deal.

Right now you have CF, LF, 3B, 2B, one (maybe 2) SP as your guys you know will be here through 2015 and are of MLB quality, let alone being here through 2017-18. That's not enough answers to start signing veterans or entering the "go all-out for it" phase.

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Last edited by StarlingArcher on Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cardinals Expected To Sign Peralta
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:02 am 
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Weren't the signings of Francisco Liriano and Russell Martin to 2-year contracts "stopgap" deals? How'd they work out?

And what about the trade for two years of A.J. Burnett? Stopgap?

Trade for Wandy Rodriguez? Stopgap?

What about the Red Sox signings of multiple middle-tier free agents last winter? Stopgaps?

There is more than one way to be successful, StarlingArcher. And no one has advocated a "sell the farm" approach to 2014. Some are frustrated by the slow pace, but your view that the Pirates should sign no free agents and play a bunch of rookies to "see what they have" is a terrible idea. Huntington should approach this off-season like he approached LAST off-season, when he signed Liriano and Martin. Maybe he'll sign a guy like James Loney to a 2- or 3-year deal. Maybe he'll trade for a first baseman. Maybe he'll sign a middle-tier starting pitcher to a 1- or 2-year deal. None of those are "sell the farm" types of deals, but they would improve the team in the short term. You know, like the Liriano and Martin signings did.

The Pirates have solid major leagues under team control through at least 2016 at CF, LF, 2B, and 3B. Those are half the positions on the diamond, StarlingArcher. The Pirates have every reason to believe they have a star-level prospect at RF, who may come up in 2014. The Pirates have good prospects at C (Tony Sanchez), SS (Alen Hanson), and pitcher (Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham, Heredia). Signing a couple of veteran players to add to the mix is a good idea now. No reason not to. It's certainly not going to hold anyone back if Huntington signs or trades for a veteran first baseman and/or starting pitcher.

Embrace the now, StarlingArcher. The future is uncertain. The only season we can see is the one in front of us. And the Pirates, properly constructed, can COMPETE in 2014.


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