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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:53 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I don't get the "Tabata can't run" line. He has slowed a bit with bulk and age, but mostly he just suffers in comparison to Marte and Cutch. The times that he really did look slow, was the year he was playing through hammy injuries. The guy running for triples in September last was not "slow".

ZM


The metrics show he is a below average baserunner and has been over the past two whole seasons. Fangraphs has him at a -2.3 BSR in 2013 and -3.0 BSR in 2012. That isn't compared to Cutch or Marte. That is compared to the "average base runner". Some of that is from his loss of speed. Some of that is just doing dumb stuff on the bases. A lot of it is just not taking bases that the average base runner would take.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:15 pm 
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http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ultimate ... ng-primer/

Those are the explanations of Fangraph's baserunning metric. I leave it to you to decide whether the assumptions and methodologies employed form sound conclusions and how much credence you give them.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:21 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
I don't get the "Tabata can't run" line. He has slowed a bit with bulk and age, but mostly he just suffers in comparison to Marte and Cutch. The times that he really did look slow, was the year he was playing through hammy injuries. The guy running for triples in September last was not "slow".

ZM


The metrics show he is a below average baserunner and has been over the past two whole seasons. Fangraphs has him at a -2.3 BSR in 2013 and -3.0 BSR in 2012. That isn't compared to Cutch or Marte. That is compared to the "average base runner". Some of that is from his loss of speed. Some of that is just doing dumb stuff on the bases. A lot of it is just not taking bases that the average base runner would take.


I did not mention his base running abilities. As a whole, the Pirates were terrible until this year. I am specifically asking about him being "slow" as is posted here, and that he doesn't provide any value because he is "slow".

I don't see a healthy Tabata as slow, that is all.

Now if you want to discuss how well he steals, or takes a base or breaks on a groundball...

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:39 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
I don't get the "Tabata can't run" line. He has slowed a bit with bulk and age, but mostly he just suffers in comparison to Marte and Cutch. The times that he really did look slow, was the year he was playing through hammy injuries. The guy running for triples in September last was not "slow".

ZM


The metrics show he is a below average baserunner and has been over the past two whole seasons. Fangraphs has him at a -2.3 BSR in 2013 and -3.0 BSR in 2012. That isn't compared to Cutch or Marte. That is compared to the "average base runner". Some of that is from his loss of speed. Some of that is just doing dumb stuff on the bases. A lot of it is just not taking bases that the average base runner would take.


I did not mention his base running abilities. As a whole, the Pirates were terrible until this year. I am specifically asking about him being "slow" as is posted here, and that he doesn't provide any value because he is "slow".

I don't see a healthy Tabata as slow, that is all.

Now if you want to discuss how well he steals, or takes a base or breaks on a groundball...

ZM

Well, I don't see where anyone was calling him slow. I said he was a below average base runner.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:31 am 
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mjdouble wrote:
Yeah, and quite of bit that was due to his baserunning skills which are completely gone at this point.


Yeah, I'm well aware that Tabata no longer has the SB abilities and defense that once made him such a solid prospect. It's why his current outlook is a perennial 4th OF/placeholder type and not the RF of the future like he was thought to be. You were asking a question about the past and not the present by postulating that the Pirates haven't had a player anywhere near a 1.8 WAR in recent years when Tabata was nearly identical as a rookie. As far as the present, you seem to imply also that even an average year like Byrd's in 2011 that I referenced will be much better than what the Pirates get out of RF in 2013. I would not say it's improbable that Tabata is capable, still at age 25 and coming off by far his career best OPS+ of 119 (a number Byrd only surpassed once in his career outside of last year, back in 2008). Not that I'm really interested in comparing the two. The point is that I'm not nearly as pessimistic about the value the Pirates will get from RF in 2014.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:53 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Yeah, and quite of bit that was due to his baserunning skills which are completely gone at this point.


Yeah, I'm well aware that Tabata no longer has the SB abilities and defense that once made him such a solid prospect. It's why his current outlook is a perennial 4th OF/placeholder type and not the RF of the future like he was thought to be. You were asking a question about the past and not the present by postulating that the Pirates haven't had a player anywhere near a 1.8 WAR in recent years when Tabata was nearly identical as a rookie. As far as the present, you seem to imply also that even an average year like Byrd's in 2011 that I referenced will be much better than what the Pirates get out of RF in 2013. I would not say it's improbable that Tabata is capable, still at age 25 and coming off by far his career best OPS+ of 119 (a number Byrd only surpassed once in his career outside of last year, back in 2008). Not that I'm really interested in comparing the two. The point is that I'm not nearly as pessimistic about the value the Pirates will get from RF in 2014.


I'm not really pessimistic about the Pirates RF production in 2014 either. I think they can get adequate production from Tabata and/or Lambo with a potential boost from Polanco in the second half. I'm more than ok with going that route if it means directing dollars to a roster spot with more pressing needs. However, I don't think this mix of guys is going to produce at Byrd's level. I do believe a great year from Tabata would be an average Byrd year. I don't see Tabata reaching a 2.0 WAR. I think that is his ceiling.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:01 pm 
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Here are Marlon's career numbers since it seems like some need to look at them. Aside from his years in Texas and last year, decidedly average. I guess his first first year in Philly and his first year in Chicago were both above average. Still, I think it's more likely that we see average Byrd than 5 WAR Byrd.

I hope he plays well in Philly but I still don't think he's worth anywhere close to the money he's getting. Average Byrd at $8MM is a much greater cost than Tabata at $3MM.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 4:14 pm 
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The problem is we ranked near the bottom of the league in run production. That 'more than likely' will not be improved upon by simply handing RF to Tabata/Lambo. If you go with those two, then you need to improve the offensive production somewhere else that it lagged last year, which is first base. If you simply stick with Gaby and someone slightly better than Jones, but near that level, then have we really improved our offense at all heading into 2014?


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:26 pm 
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The run creation actually wasn't that terrible. Wound up tied with Atlanta for 3rd in the NL with a 106 wRC+. The Cards and Dodgers were 1st and 2nd and the Giants and Reds were the 2 teams that trailed us closely in the NL.

As a whole, the run creation was far superior in the AL, but with the DH that's to be expected as even the Cardinals were pretty well behind the Red Sox and only tied with the Tigers even when the pitchers are taken out. Tossing in the pitchers, the NL teams all plummet.

Edit: With the pitchers in, the Cards drop to 7th in all of baseball (from tied for 2nd) and the Pirates drop to 5th in the NL behind the Cards, Dodgers, Braves, and Giants. The offense's run creation also drops from an above average 106 to a below-average 97. Pitchers were brutal with the sticks this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 6:41 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Here are Marlon's career numbers since it seems like some need to look at them. Aside from his years in Texas and last year, decidedly average. I guess his first first year in Philly and his first year in Chicago were both above average. Still, I think it's more likely that we see average Byrd than 5 WAR Byrd.

I hope he plays well in Philly but I still don't think he's worth anywhere close to the money he's getting. Average Byrd at $8MM is a much greater cost than Tabata at $3MM.


Byrd has averaged 2.25 WAR over the last 4 years. Tabata has never posted a WAR over 2 in any year. Tabata has posted an average of .825 WAR. So if you are basing off their track records the production lines up with their pay quite evenly.

Byrd $8 / 2.5 = $3.5 per WAR
Tabata $3 / .825 = $3.63 per WAR


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 7:22 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
The run creation actually wasn't that terrible. Wound up tied with Atlanta for 3rd in the NL with a 106 wRC+. The Cards and Dodgers were 1st and 2nd and the Giants and Reds were the 2 teams that trailed us closely in the NL.

As a whole, the run creation was far superior in the AL, but with the DH that's to be expected as even the Cardinals were pretty well behind the Red Sox and only tied with the Tigers even when the pitchers are taken out. Tossing in the pitchers, the NL teams all plummet.

Edit: With the pitchers in, the Cards drop to 7th in all of baseball (from tied for 2nd) and the Pirates drop to 5th in the NL behind the Cards, Dodgers, Braves, and Giants. The offense's run creation also drops from an above average 106 to a below-average 97. Pitchers were brutal with the sticks this year.


Runs created? What nerd makes up these worthless stats. Any run you score was created one way or another and we were 20th in that department.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:04 pm 
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Takes out baserunning blunders, managerial gaffes, and ballpark biases (i.e. It considers that it's easier to score at Great American ballpark than Petco).

I'd like to see it adjusted for opponent defense as well but not sure how plausible that is at this point in time. This one doesn't account for runs you score via errors but we saw with Matt Holliday that errors of omission are just as damaging as errors of commission.

They're always coming out with more in-depth stats so it's hopefully a matter of time.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:15 am 
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I know when to admit I was wrong. That Duke Welker is obviously the missing piece we've been looking for for almost 4 months!

BTW: Cory Hart is down to 4 interested teams. Non of which are the Pirates.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:31 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Takes out baserunning blunders, managerial gaffes, and ballpark biases (i.e. It considers that it's easier to score at Great American ballpark than Petco).

I'd like to see it adjusted for opponent defense as well but not sure how plausible that is at this point in time. This one doesn't account for runs you score via errors but we saw with Matt Holliday that errors of omission are just as damaging as errors of commission.

They're always coming out with more in-depth stats so it's hopefully a matter of time.



Yeah, and further consider how easily Oakland was running down Cutch and Marte flies to left that would have been home runs in Milwaukee.

Runs are not created equally across the league.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:32 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
I know when to admit I was wrong. That Duke Welker is obviously the missing piece we've been looking for for almost 4 months!

BTW: Cory Hart is down to 4 interested teams. Non of which are the Pirates.



They were too busy going after Josh Johnson.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:11 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
The Rotten One wrote:
I know when to admit I was wrong. That Duke Welker is obviously the missing piece we've been looking for for almost 4 months!

BTW: Cory Hart is down to 4 interested teams. Non of which are the Pirates.



They were too busy going after Josh Johnson.


Same old Pirates!


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 12:33 am 
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mjdouble wrote:
TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
I think he will be better than what the Pirates march out in RF this season.


I don't think anyone is saying that's improbable. It all comes down to the contract and the fact that a 4.1 WAR year was going to warrant an expensive multi-year deal like you mention. Subsequently I never heard a single Pirates fan here or elsewhere who wasn't in favor of giving him a 1-year deal so I'm not sure I agree that he was being undervalued. The reasons for concern are legitimate though, bouncing back from negative -1.0 WAR year to a 4.1 at age 36 (and I'm not aware of the details, but the testing positive for PED use) and he was below average in 2011. Like I said though, I don't think anyone is saying the Pirates are guaranteed to get better RF production next year. But the contract situation is what it is and the Pirates internal options both immediately and in the near future are not very dire.


Byrd had an off year for him in 2011. But it wasn't really a bad year and it wasn't below avg either. He posted an 1.8 WAR 2011. That is exactly $8 million in value on the open market. Tell me the last time a Pirate RF posted a 1.8 WAR? Frankly, the deal he got aligned very much with his value. I don't think 2 years $16 million is a bad deal at all fro his services. I feel pretty confident he'll play up to that contract. Only reason fro the Bucs not to pay that is they have a few more pressing needs and are more likely to get reasonable production from their internal options in RF than they would at say 1B. But I wouldn't have been upset with a two year contract for Byrd. I'm ok they passed on him, but I would have been just as ok if they matched the Phils offer. I think Polanco is going to be a stud but I think people are a little irrational in both their expectations of what he will do and their worry that he could be blocked. If the Pirates have a RF playing well all summer long in front of Polanco that is a good problem to have. Here is another thing, why not get Polanco some time in Spring Training at 1B and get him a little work him there some at Indy too just in case? People may laugh at that but if it gets the best players on the field then so be it. It wouldn't be the first time a team has done that. Angels did that with Darin Erstad. When Erstad came up they had a crowded outfield. Despite being an elite defensive OF they put him at 1B because they knew he was a great athlete and would be able to handle it and it would get their best 9 players on the field. Erstad bounced between 1B and CF his whole career based on the need the Angels had at the time. He won Gold Gloves at both positions.

Marlon Byrd has played 12 seasons in the majors. He's been a below average hitter in six of them. His career OPS+ is EXACTLY the same as Tabata's.

But don't worry, Byrd will have another great year in 2014. At 37. And he won't fail any drug tests. I guarantee it.

As for playing Polanco at first, I must ask, are you crazy? He has an arm that is much stronger than McCutchen's, perhaps better than Marte's, and by the reports I've read, is pretty much their equal defensively aside from throwing. I've got no problem with moving guys to first base, but the chances that the Pirates can find and acquire a right fielder who is better than Polanco defensively are about the same as me getting a date with Scarlett Johansson.

Right now I'd put the odds of either Tabata or a Tabata/Lambo split in right out-hitting Byrd next year at around 50/50.

By the way, moving Erstad to first turned a marginally useful player into a tremendous liability. The only year he hit well enough to be above average for a first baseman was 2000, and he spent most of that season in left field. One of the dumbest moves in recent baseball history.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 12:44 am 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
The problem is we ranked near the bottom of the league in run production. That 'more than likely' will not be improved upon by simply handing RF to Tabata/Lambo. If you go with those two, then you need to improve the offensive production somewhere else that it lagged last year, which is first base. If you simply stick with Gaby and someone slightly better than Jones, but near that level, then have we really improved our offense at all heading into 2014?

The Pirates won 94 games last year with Travis Snider trotting his .614 OPS out to right field in about half of the games. If Tabata/Lambo manage to squeeze out production equal to what Tabata had in 2012, that's an improvement. If they match Tabata's career numbers, it's a VAST improvement. Pirate right fielders racked up an OPS of .684 last year, and that includes all of Tabata's and Byrd's production. They'd pretty much improve their offense by picking a major league fourth outfielder's name out of a hat.

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