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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:21 am 
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Plus you in no way get paid for your body of work. Well, unless you're the Yankees, Angels, Phillies, or White Sox and are afraid of letting go of a successful past that's passed you by. Or named Tim Lincecum I suppose.

You get paid based on what you're projected to produce over the next X years of our contract. Paying for a guy's past years doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Think the Cards and Rangers are mad that they chose to offer Pujols and Hamilton what they were worth in the future as opposed to rewarding them for their past? Heck no.

Also I don't think they'll sustain things this year. At least not at a 94 win level. They're due for a downish year and I think they're going to take it this year, generate excitement around Taillon and Polanco and then make a serious push. By and large this is/was an older than ideal team for a franchise hoping to contend for many years and the ability to only sign one Napoli type free agent (making it imperative to know where your hole will be ASAP).

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:28 am 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
'maybe Tabata will wake up' ... Neither panned out


Actually, Tabata did "pan out". His OBP and OPS+ were the third best on the team. The fact that Byrd was having a career year (therefor obviously an upgrade) and happened to be available as a cheap trade deadline rental was just a logical move. It doesn't diminish the fact that Tabata had more than a good enough year to be used a placeholder for the top hitting prospect. The biggest issue is his consistent, routine injury issues. He's still only 25 so maybe next year he gets through a full healthy season. If not, they could do worse than Lambo as the contingency plan in that case (read: FAs like Diaz, Church, etc).

Also don't get why not resigning Byrd (which had a very minimal chance of happening from the beginning given the multi-year deal his 4.1 WAR career season obviously warranted) is causing a panic that equates that no 1B will be acquired or the notion that Byrd not being resigned means that Jones has a good chance to resign. Jones, at his cost, is not going to be the Pirates 1B in 2014 when he can no longer hit RHP.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:59 am 
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He was so bad that he almost retired last year, at 36, but now after using steroids he's good again. And the Pirates have a top prospect in the wings.

And, a guy who just got 2 years 16 mil would turn down 1 year at 14? He probably would have accepted that offer in a second.


Just Silly! Steroid use was two years ago. How long do you think that lasts? Byrd was a ground ball chop hitter who had his swing dramatically changed by a Batting coach Ironically while he was suspended for steroids. So steroids did help. As far as his contract goes, his agent said that at his age he would not consider a one year deal. What he got was 2 years at for 16 mil with incentives and a club option for a third. He would not take 1 for 14 and possibly be forced into retirement in one year. An agent would tell a GM that in one phone call. NH did Byrd a favor by not tendering him. Plain and simple.

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Think the Cards and Rangers are mad that they chose to offer Pujols and Hamilton what they were worth in the future as opposed to rewarding them for their past? Heck no.


Pujols had a lousy season (By his standards) BA down, HR's Down, (37) before the Cards let him go. Injury filled at that. Still a solid player but obviously in the decline. And again we are not talking about a player of that caliber. We are talking about 16 Mil. Not 150 mil.

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Also don't get why not resigning Byrd (which had a very minimal chance of happening from the beginning given the multi-year deal his 4.1 WAR career season obviously warranted) is causing a panic that equates that no 1B will be acquired or the notion that Byrd not being resigned means that Jones has a good chance to resign. Jones, at his cost, is not going to be the Pirates 1B in 2014 when he can no longer hit RHP.


Because Jones can play right field in a platoon situation. Just like last year. Sanchez would be odd man out. Jones give you the depth that Sanchez does not. Without signing a RF, the Pirates have none with Jones gone. Maybe the Pirates will sign one. And then Jones value goes down.

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Polanco


That Kid was in single A ball to start the 2013 season. There is NO WAY at 22 years old, with only 1/2 a season of AAA ball will he be ready to play in the Major leagues. Andrew McCutchen played in over 200 games in Indy. Starling Marte played in over 100 Games in Indy after a full season of AA ball. Polanco has played in 2....Dos.....II....TWO... and those two after only 68 games of AA ball..What makes anyone think a kid who would be a junior in college could possible be ready to CONTRIBUTE to the Pirate offense in '14 ?????


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:20 pm 
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So we want to re-sign a guy who had an unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% because he's a shinier new toy than just going with the younger guy with identical career production (Tabata), keep Jones instead of Gaby Sanchez despite their production discrepancy because he gives off the illusion of playing a capable RF, and not count on Polanco because of McCutchen and Marte's struggles in AAA?

Polanco is 2nd in the entire Dominican Summer League in OPS while facing primarily AAA level pitchers. Even if people want to discount every single scouting service's reports that he could play CF in the majors tomorrow, his production at every level has been outstanding with no signs of outliers or unsustainable trends. People forget that Cutch struggled quite a bit his first go-round in AAA. Marte wasn't exactly a force either.

Not saying he'll be a star right away, just saying that if we're using Marlon Byrd as the standard of acceptable production.....we aren't really setting a particularly high bar for him to attain. That's without accounting for Byrd's non-existent baserunning and subpar defense.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:33 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Because Jones can play right field in a platoon situation. Just like last year. Sanchez would be odd man out. Jones give you the depth that Sanchez does not. Without signing a RF, the Pirates have none with Jones gone. Maybe the Pirates will sign one. And then Jones value goes down.


My POV with that post is from the perspective that the Pirates will almost assuredly bring in a 1B, hence not knowing where all of the Jones hysteria is coming from. Sounds like from the OP that the Pirates not re-signing Byrd caused you to default back to the tired, reactionary "owner doesn't care about winning" methodology and that meant that they also don't care about improving at 1B or any other position for that matter. Especially when with Byrd gone they can now spend an entire off-season using their resources elsewhere.

I don't think it really changes Jones's value at all. More so than being versatile his primary attribute is that he can (or rather used to be able to) hit RHP when Gaby cannot. The 1B who is hypothetically brought in will probably not play RF at all. Even if he has platoon splits and can hit RHP, that's why you keep Gaby who hits LHP at an elite level. At his arbitration cost, no way Jones at 32 who can no longer hit RHP is retained. Maybe if he agrees to come back at a discounted rate to fill a bench/utility role, but that's it. It's a rare case where probably any options available in the FA market will likely at least be an improvement to a certain extent, probably much greater.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:52 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
'maybe Tabata will wake up' ... Neither panned out


Actually, Tabata did "pan out". His OBP and OPS+ were the third best on the team. The fact that Byrd was having a career year (therefor obviously an upgrade) and happened to be available as a cheap trade deadline rental was just a logical move. It doesn't diminish the fact that Tabata had more than a good enough year to be used a placeholder for the top hitting prospect. The biggest issue is his consistent, routine injury issues. He's still only 25 so maybe next year he gets through a full healthy season. If not, they could do worse than Lambo as the contingency plan in that case (read: FAs like Diaz, Church, etc).

Also don't get why not resigning Byrd (which had a very minimal chance of happening from the beginning given the multi-year deal his 4.1 WAR career season obviously warranted) is causing a panic that equates that no 1B will be acquired or the notion that Byrd not being resigned means that Jones has a good chance to resign. Jones, at his cost, is not going to be the Pirates 1B in 2014 when he can no longer hit RHP.


Tabata did not work out. He was oft injured for the first two plus months, which is his M.O., hit .229 in July in 70 at bats which was his first full month of playing that season, and didn't start hitting until August. So he played well and was 'what we needed' for one month, at which point we dealt for Byrd. We needed the August Tabata all year and received nothing close until August.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:55 pm 
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We got what his end of season numbers say we got. Doesn't matter how he got there. He got there and we got the benefits of it. He was fine. To think he was going to be a borderline All-Star hitter all year like he was in August is absurd.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:05 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
We got what his end of season numbers say we got. Doesn't matter how he got there. He got there and we got the benefits of it. He was fine. To think he was going to be a borderline All-Star hitter all year like he was in August is absurd.


His end of season numbers look decent because he only played about half of a season.

April 45 at bats, .178 average, .260 OBP, .549 OPS
May 36 at bats, .389 average, .436 OBP, .991 OPS
June recorded ZERO at bats
July 70 at bats, .229 average, .316 OBP, .631 OPS
August and September he played well.....

So if you are looking for a guy that will miss 1/4 to 1/2 the season with some sort of leg issue, and then maybe, maybe, play well when healthy, rely on Tabata for RF. I think the guy has talent, for sure, but hasn't been healthy for a full season in his last 3 seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:15 pm 
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Quote:
The Rotten One wrote:
Quote:
He was so bad that he almost retired last year, at 36, but now after using steroids he's good again. And the Pirates have a top prospect in the wings.

And, a guy who just got 2 years 16 mil would turn down 1 year at 14? He probably would have accepted that offer in a second.


Just Silly! Steroid use was two years ago. How long do you think that lasts? Byrd was a ground ball chop hitter who had his swing dramatically changed by a Batting coach Ironically while he was suspended for steroids. So steroids did help. As far as his contract goes, his agent said that at his age he would not consider a one year deal. What he got was 2 years at for 16 mil with incentives and a club option for a third. He would not take 1 for 14 and possibly be forced into retirement in one year. An agent would tell a GM that in one phone call. NH did Byrd a favor by not tendering him. Plain and simple.


You'll lose about 50% of your gains in a year. Why would he be forced into retirement? If he gets forced into retirement that means he was bad, and if he's bad, why in the hell do you want to pay him so much money?

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Think the Cards and Rangers are mad that they chose to offer Pujols and Hamilton what they were worth in the future as opposed to rewarding them for their past? Heck no.


Pujols had a lousy season (By his standards) BA down, HR's Down, (37) before the Cards let him go. Injury filled at that. Still a solid player but obviously in the decline. And again we are not talking about a player of that caliber. We are talking about 16 Mil. Not 150 mil.


Point is, he was overpaid for past production. Byrd will likely be a waste of less money. Which is still a waste of money. And the Angels have more resources than the Pirates, so it's not quite 16 to 150.

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Also don't get why not resigning Byrd (which had a very minimal chance of happening from the beginning given the multi-year deal his 4.1 WAR career season obviously warranted) is causing a panic that equates that no 1B will be acquired or the notion that Byrd not being resigned means that Jones has a good chance to resign. Jones, at his cost, is not going to be the Pirates 1B in 2014 when he can no longer hit RHP.


Because Jones can play right field in a platoon situation. Just like last year. Sanchez would be odd man out. Jones give you the depth that Sanchez does not. Without signing a RF, the Pirates have none with Jones gone. Maybe the Pirates will sign one. And then Jones value goes down.


They can manage RF without Jones.

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Polanco


That Kid was in single A ball to start the 2013 season. There is NO WAY at 22 years old, with only 1/2 a season of AAA ball will he be ready to play in the Major leagues. Andrew McCutchen played in over 200 games in Indy. Starling Marte played in over 100 Games in Indy after a full season of AA ball. Polanco has played in 2....Dos.....II....TWO... and those two after only 68 games of AA ball..What makes anyone think a kid who would be a junior in college could possible be ready to CONTRIBUTE to the Pirate offense in '14 ?????


It's more believable than a 36 year old coming off a career year with PED questions keeping up his production.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:19 pm 
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I've read that David Freese may be available. Maybe the Bucs should make a run at him and move El Bull to 1B with Gaby spelling him against some lefties.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:35 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
We got what his end of season numbers say we got. Doesn't matter how he got there. He got there and we got the benefits of it. He was fine. To think he was going to be a borderline All-Star hitter all year like he was in August is absurd.


His end of season numbers look decent because he only played about half of a season.

April 45 at bats, .178 average, .260 OBP, .549 OPS
May 36 at bats, .389 average, .436 OBP, .991 OPS
June recorded ZERO at bats
July 70 at bats, .229 average, .316 OBP, .631 OPS
August and September he played well.....

So if you are looking for a guy that will miss 1/4 to 1/2 the season with some sort of leg issue, and then maybe, maybe, play well when healthy, rely on Tabata for RF. I think the guy has talent, for sure, but hasn't been healthy for a full season in his last 3 seasons.


I think when whoever starts in RF will be the 4th OF by the end of the year, health isn't a huge a concern.

I wouldn't trust him to play all year at this point in time but right now they're just looking for a short short-term placeholder in RF. Tabata is likely to be a really solid 4th OF for several years and would be an average starter if necessary. That's worth keeping around to be certain.

Really wouldn't shock me if they go with a Lambo/Tabata platoon to start, too. They do probably need to see if Lambo has any sort of future...be it for the Pirates or for somebody else after we trade him.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:44 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Dr. Phibes wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
We got what his end of season numbers say we got. Doesn't matter how he got there. He got there and we got the benefits of it. He was fine. To think he was going to be a borderline All-Star hitter all year like he was in August is absurd.


His end of season numbers look decent because he only played about half of a season.

April 45 at bats, .178 average, .260 OBP, .549 OPS
May 36 at bats, .389 average, .436 OBP, .991 OPS
June recorded ZERO at bats
July 70 at bats, .229 average, .316 OBP, .631 OPS
August and September he played well.....

So if you are looking for a guy that will miss 1/4 to 1/2 the season with some sort of leg issue, and then maybe, maybe, play well when healthy, rely on Tabata for RF. I think the guy has talent, for sure, but hasn't been healthy for a full season in his last 3 seasons.


I think when whoever starts in RF will be the 4th OF by the end of the year, health isn't a huge a concern.

I wouldn't trust him to play all year at this point in time but right now they're just looking for a short short-term placeholder in RF. Tabata is likely to be a really solid 4th OF for several years and would be an average starter if necessary. That's worth keeping around to be certain.

Really wouldn't shock me if they go with a Lambo/Tabata platoon to start, too. They do probably need to see if Lambo has any sort of future...be it for the Pirates or for somebody else after we trade him.


I'd rather acquire a solid RF from the get-go, and see where the chips fall. Tabata/Lambo may both produce worse than we got out of RF last year and Polanco could struggle or get injured in AAA. If Polanco stays healthy, kicks butt at AAA which we all hope he does, then that opens the door to move a player if needed. But I'd rather be in the position to have to move someone cause we have options, than not have real options, and have a struggling offense most of the season until we are forced to make a deadline move to get a bat.

We all witnessed last season what one, two, three extra wins mean. Had we had a few more wins through the season then that playoff series is at PNC, and who knows what happens if we have that at PNC. Could of been in the big dance.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 4:00 pm 
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I think people aren't giving Marlon Byrd enough credit. I can't fault the Bucs for passing on him. That second year was problematic. But Byrd is still better than most here give him credit for. Yes, he had a career year last year. But with the exception of a truly awful 2012 season he has been fairly consistent performer. The notion that he is subpar defender is just wrong. He isn't a liability as a base runner either. He rates significantly better than Jose Tabata in both categories. As for unsustainable BABIP, he's had a high BABIP most of his career. I think he will outperform the $8 million he is set to earn in 2014. I think he will be better than what the Pirates march out in RF this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 4:24 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
I think he will be better than what the Pirates march out in RF this season.


I don't think anyone is saying that's improbable. It all comes down to the contract and the fact that a 4.1 WAR year was going to warrant an expensive multi-year deal like you mention. Subsequently I never heard a single Pirates fan here or elsewhere who wasn't in favor of giving him a 1-year deal so I'm not sure I agree that he was being undervalued. The reasons for concern are legitimate though, bouncing back from negative -1.0 WAR year to a 4.1 at age 36 (and I'm not aware of the details, but the testing positive for PED use) and he was below average in 2011. Like I said though, I don't think anyone is saying the Pirates are guaranteed to get better RF production next year. But the contract situation is what it is and the Pirates internal options both immediately and in the near future are not very dire.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:05 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
I think he will be better than what the Pirates march out in RF this season.


I don't think anyone is saying that's improbable. It all comes down to the contract and the fact that a 4.1 WAR year was going to warrant an expensive multi-year deal like you mention. Subsequently I never heard a single Pirates fan here or elsewhere who wasn't in favor of giving him a 1-year deal so I'm not sure I agree that he was being undervalued. The reasons for concern are legitimate though, bouncing back from negative -1.0 WAR year to a 4.1 at age 36 (and I'm not aware of the details, but the testing positive for PED use) and he was below average in 2011. Like I said though, I don't think anyone is saying the Pirates are guaranteed to get better RF production next year. But the contract situation is what it is and the Pirates internal options both immediately and in the near future are not very dire.


Byrd had an off year for him in 2011. But it wasn't really a bad year and it wasn't below avg either. He posted an 1.8 WAR 2011. That is exactly $8 million in value on the open market. Tell me the last time a Pirate RF posted a 1.8 WAR? Frankly, the deal he got aligned very much with his value. I don't think 2 years $16 million is a bad deal at all fro his services. I feel pretty confident he'll play up to that contract. Only reason fro the Bucs not to pay that is they have a few more pressing needs and are more likely to get reasonable production from their internal options in RF than they would at say 1B. But I wouldn't have been upset with a two year contract for Byrd. I'm ok they passed on him, but I would have been just as ok if they matched the Phils offer. I think Polanco is going to be a stud but I think people are a little irrational in both their expectations of what he will do and their worry that he could be blocked. If the Pirates have a RF playing well all summer long in front of Polanco that is a good problem to have. Here is another thing, why not get Polanco some time in Spring Training at 1B and get him a little work him there some at Indy too just in case? People may laugh at that but if it gets the best players on the field then so be it. It wouldn't be the first time a team has done that. Angels did that with Darin Erstad. When Erstad came up they had a crowded outfield. Despite being an elite defensive OF they put him at 1B because they knew he was a great athlete and would be able to handle it and it would get their best 9 players on the field. Erstad bounced between 1B and CF his whole career based on the need the Angels had at the time. He won Gold Gloves at both positions.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:16 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
Angels did that with Darin Erstad. When Erstad came up they had a crowded outfield. Despite being an elite defensive OF they put him at 1B because they knew he was a great athlete and would be able to handle it and it would get their best 9 players on the field. Erstad bounced between 1B and CF his whole career based on the need the Angels had at the time. He won Gold Gloves at both positions.


You must have missed Dave Cameron's edict in which he proclaims that no one cares about the Gold Glove Awards anymore. Thank goodness someone is out there to tell me what I no longer care about . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:25 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
Tell me the last time a Pirate RF posted a 1.8 WAR?


Byrd's replacement, Tabata, three years ago.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:08 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Tell me the last time a Pirate RF posted a 1.8 WAR?


Byrd's replacement, Tabata, three years ago.


Yeah, and quite of bit that was due to his baserunning skills which are completely gone at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:13 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Angels did that with Darin Erstad. When Erstad came up they had a crowded outfield. Despite being an elite defensive OF they put him at 1B because they knew he was a great athlete and would be able to handle it and it would get their best 9 players on the field. Erstad bounced between 1B and CF his whole career based on the need the Angels had at the time. He won Gold Gloves at both positions.


You must have missed Dave Cameron's edict in which he proclaims that no one cares about the Gold Glove Awards anymore. Thank goodness someone is out there to tell me what I no longer care about . . .



I don't really care about Gold Gloves either. It wasn't the Gold Gloves that validated Erstad as a supreme defender. But it should mean something. Especially when he wasn't getting a whole lot of recognition from his bat.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:32 pm 
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I don't get the "Tabata can't run" line. He has slowed a bit with bulk and age, but mostly he just suffers in comparison to Marte and Cutch. The times that he really did look slow, was the year he was playing through hammy injuries. The guy running for triples in September last was not "slow".

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