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 Post subject: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:34 pm 
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Discuss.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/transactions/free-agents

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:43 pm 
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If his knees aren't totally shot, Corey Hart wouldn't be a bad 1B gamble to take on a one-year deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 9:36 pm 
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Screw CBS for not posting OBP! :x

It's too bad Rajai Davis is up there in age and doesn't get OB enough. He'd fit a need up top.

This list is pretty barren of the type of talent that the Bucs need bats-wise.

Plenty of intriguing arms if the price is right.

It's too bad Gavin Floyd is out for all of 2014. A transition to PNC could have helped his ERA. Maybe keep an eye on him as the season goes on or after next year. He could be a great buy-low investment.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:46 am 
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James Loney would fit nicely.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:15 am 
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Pirates choose to not extend a qualifying offer to AJ. Smart. They have all the bargaining power.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:04 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Pirates choose to not extend a qualifying offer to AJ. Smart. They have all the bargaining power.


Really? What's to stop a team with a dearth of pitching from offering Burnett two years and $30 million? That could definitely happen.

Unless the Pirates already have an agreement in principle, or unless the Pirates believe that Burnett is 100% not going to be wooed by money, the team should have issued a qualifying offer to protect itself.

Keith Law puts A.J. Burnett 10th on his list of the top 50 free agents, and he notes that "[t]hree guaranteed years might be pushing it at his age, but his recent track record says he's worth that and more than $15 million per year."

If the Pirates truly want A.J. to return, they really rolled the dice here...


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:08 pm 
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He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:14 pm 
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Guys I'd consider (with possible deals in parentheses):

* Jhonny Peralta, 31 years old, SS/3B (3-years, $25-30M)
* Corey Hart, 31 years old, 1B (1-year, $4-8M)
* Scott Kazmir, 29 years old, LHP (2-years, $8-10M)
* Josh Johnson, 29 years old, RHP (1-year, $8-12M)
* James Loney, 29 years old, 1B (3-years, $15-21M)
* Bartolo Colon, 40 years old, RHP (1-year, $6-8M)
* Juan Uribe, 34 years old, 3B/1B/UTIL (1-year, $6-8M)

None of the above guys received qualifying offers, so the Pirates could sign them without giving up a draft pick.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:16 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


If he signs with another team, the Pirates look pretty darn stupid. The QO guarantees he'd play for the team in 2014, or the Pirates get a draft pick. And he's worth $14.1M on a one-year deal -- look at his innings, strikeouts, and other peripherals.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:28 pm 
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Burnett has stated publicly that he will pitch for the Pirates or not all.

He is old enough, accomplished enough, and rich enough that I believe him.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:47 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If his knees aren't totally shot, Corey Hart wouldn't be a bad 1B gamble to take on a one-year deal.

Agreed.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:01 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


If he signs with another team, the Pirates look pretty darn stupid. The QO guarantees he'd play for the team in 2014, or the Pirates get a draft pick. And he's worth $14.1M on a one-year deal -- look at his innings, strikeouts, and other peripherals.


With draft pick compensation tied to him, there is a chance AJ's market is depressed. That's what happened to Lohse last year (and I'm not saying AJ doesn't have more value than Lohse). If AJ is already mulling retirement, I'm guessing it would take a bigger pay day than what he might have accepted a few years ago in the prime of his career to get him to sign elsewhere instead of hanging them up, and that might not be there with the draft pick compensation tied to signing him.

Bottom line is that I don't really have any reason to be upset at this point. The FO knows a lot more about AJ's intentions than we do at this point. If AJ goes back on his initial statement about playing here or retiring, and does sign someone else, then yes, this will look pretty bad in hindsight. But if we take AJ at his word, and NH at his word that they are trying to re-sign him, then not issuing a QO isn't a big deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:04 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If he signs with another team, the Pirates look pretty darn stupid.


And if that does happen, I'll go on record as potentially looking "pretty darn stupid" in the future by saying right now that there's a 0% chance that that happens.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:11 pm 
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If I were AJ, I would sell my services to the highest bidder. He has no obligation to Pittsburgh. And retirement will come soon enough. Make the money while you still can, and keep pitching while you still can.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:11 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


No way he would have accepted the qualifying offer. He wouldn't sign a deal that would allow for him to possibly be traded at midseason. I think this opens things up for the Orioles to get involved. I have a bad feeling about this. And I don't think $14 million is an overpay for AJ either.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:36 pm 
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BBF wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


If he signs with another team, the Pirates look pretty darn stupid. The QO guarantees he'd play for the team in 2014, or the Pirates get a draft pick. And he's worth $14.1M on a one-year deal -- look at his innings, strikeouts, and other peripherals.


With draft pick compensation tied to him, there is a chance AJ's market is depressed. That's what happened to Lohse last year (and I'm not saying AJ doesn't have more value than Lohse). If AJ is already mulling retirement, I'm guessing it would take a bigger pay day than what he might have accepted a few years ago in the prime of his career to get him to sign elsewhere instead of hanging them up, and that might not be there with the draft pick compensation tied to signing him.

Bottom line is that I don't really have any reason to be upset at this point. The FO knows a lot more about AJ's intentions than we do at this point. If AJ goes back on his initial statement about playing here or retiring, and does sign someone else, then yes, this will look pretty bad in hindsight. But if we take AJ at his word, and NH at his word that they are trying to re-sign him, then not issuing a QO isn't a big deal.


The way I understand it, there is no longer any draft pick compensation tied to AJ (Type A/B designations are gone) because he was not extended a qualifying offer.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:59 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


No way he would have accepted the qualifying offer. He wouldn't sign a deal that would allow for him to possibly be traded at midseason. I think this opens things up for the Orioles to get involved. I have a bad feeling about this. And I don't think $14 million is an overpay for AJ either.


14 million is definitely an overpay and would make him untradeable. I think that's why they didn't extend it. Let another team do it, but there's no reason for them to do it. He's a fine pitcher, but more of a 4th starter type at this point.

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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:26 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


No way he would have accepted the qualifying offer. He wouldn't sign a deal that would allow for him to possibly be traded at midseason. I think this opens things up for the Orioles to get involved. I have a bad feeling about this. And I don't think $14 million is an overpay for AJ either.


I do. That may be his market value, but I don't think we should be paying it. I have a bad feeling about his effectiveness going forward.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 5:17 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
He would jump on that qualifying offer immediately and that's way too much money.

He wants back in Pittsburgh. No reason to overpay for a 36 year old.

Offer him 9M a year and if he turns it down, thank him on the way out the door.


No way he would have accepted the qualifying offer. He wouldn't sign a deal that would allow for him to possibly be traded at midseason. I think this opens things up for the Orioles to get involved. I have a bad feeling about this. And I don't think $14 million is an overpay for AJ either.


14 million is definitely an overpay and would make him untradeable. I think that's why they didn't extend it. Let another team do it, but there's no reason for them to do it. He's a fine pitcher, but more of a 4th starter type at this point.


4th starter....crazy talk. The guy had the 4th highest K/9 and 2nd highest ground ball % of all qualified pitchers. Consistently makes 30+ starts a season. This is the kind of pitcher that makes more than $14 million a season. As for tradability, Peavy is less durable and had a higher salary. White Sox had no shortage of suitors to deal him to.


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 Post subject: Re: 2014 Free Agency Thread
PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:06 pm 
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Maybe the Pirates don't want to commit money to him period. Invest in a first baseman, shortstop or right fielder. I wouldn't disagree with that.

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