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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:50 pm 
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I don't think Morton will have much value unless he's signed to an extension by us or there's an under the table agreement where he'll be traded and signed immediately.

And, I'd say if I could extend Morton I'd prefer him over Trumbo pretty easily.

If they don't want pieces, there's no real reason to make the trade. There's no reason to ever make any trade unless it's fair value.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:56 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Gaby is no where close to average against righties. Just a .700 career OPS.


And Trumbo's OPS against RHP last year? .685. Let's not pretend like he's a vastly superior option because he's bad against RHP as opposed to putrid against them. Yeah, his career OPS against RHP isn't bad through three seasons, but he'll be 28 next year and with a sub-.300 OBP and 27% K rate he's likely to slip further into platoon territory.


Trumbo had a .778 OPS against righties in 2011. In 2012 his OPS against right handers was .808. Much more likely that last year was an outlier than a guy destined to be a platoon player. He had a bad year.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:02 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't think Morton will have much value unless he's signed to an extension by us or there's an under the table agreement where he'll be traded and signed immediately.

And, I'd say if I could extend Morton I'd prefer him over Trumbo pretty easily.

If they don't want pieces, there's no real reason to make the trade. There's no reason to ever make any trade unless it's fair value.


I agree with this. The Bucs need Morton more than Trumbo. And the Angels are looking for pitching that is cheaper, younger, with years of control. I'd offer Jeff Locke and Mark Melancon.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:31 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
Trumbo had a .778 OPS against righties in 2011. In 2012 his OPS against right handers was .808. Much more likely that last year was an outlier than a guy destined to be a platoon player. He had a bad year.


Maybe, but I wouldn't be so confident. It's not like the peripherals are really there to support that it's a guaranteed outlier down year outside of the consistent power which boosts the SLG. He posted a sub-.300 OBP against RHP and overall in 2011 and 2013 and had a 27% K rate last year (top ten worst in the league when the Pirates already have one of those in Alvarez and another approaching in Marte).

Not saying I don't have any interest in Trumbo, but I take exception with the "it's no comparison between Trumbo and Gaby" quip. If it's strictly reduced to their splits, Trumbo's career OPS vs. righties is only 48 points higher than Gaby. That's an improvement, but it's not night and day, people's ears just perk up because of the HR totals and it's easy to dismiss Gaby's BB rate and mashing the short end of the platoon. The way the current Pirates roster is constructed I'd be more comfortable going after an OBP guy than adding what could end up an Alvarez clone for the other corner.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:11 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
SA has it right.

Only pursue a trade if it involves lesser pieces (Cumpton, KMac, Pimentel, etc.).


The Angels are unlikely to trade Trumbo for just prospects. They want a major-league piece.

The question becomes -- would you trade one year of Charlie Morton for three years of Mark Trumbo?


Barring incident, probably not.

Can't trust Locke at this point.

Trumbo is clearly an upgrade/worth it 1B acquisition, just not at the price the Bucs might have to pay.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:13 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't think Morton will have much value unless he's signed to an extension by us or there's an under the table agreement where he'll be traded and signed immediately.

And, I'd say if I could extend Morton I'd prefer him over Trumbo pretty easily.

If they don't want pieces, there's no real reason to make the trade. There's no reason to ever make any trade unless it's fair value.

Disagree, though I see where you are coming from. The purpose of a trade is to try to make your team better. We're not involved in a league where trade "wins" or "losses" gets you anything. Byrd would still have been a good trade for the team at twice the cost of Herrera and PTBNL,


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:25 am 
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Who's the other guy they are offering, and why not him?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:04 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Who's the other guy they are offering, and why not him?

ZM


All defense, no bat CF. Knocked Trout out of CF but he's a slap hitter with an ugly K% given his BB% and lack of power. Nice player but we're pretty set with guys who can play a solid to great CF.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:06 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Who's the other guy they are offering, and why not him?

ZM


All defense, no bat CF. Knocked Trout out of CF but he's a slap hitter with an ugly K% given his BB% and lack of power. Nice player but we're pretty set with guys who can play a solid to great CF.



Yeah, if Cutch/Marte didn't exist, Bourjos would make a ton of sense. He'd just have no place on this team.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:09 am 
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val wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't think Morton will have much value unless he's signed to an extension by us or there's an under the table agreement where he'll be traded and signed immediately.

And, I'd say if I could extend Morton I'd prefer him over Trumbo pretty easily.

If they don't want pieces, there's no real reason to make the trade. There's no reason to ever make any trade unless it's fair value.

Disagree, though I see where you are coming from. The purpose of a trade is to try to make your team better. We're not involved in a league where trade "wins" or "losses" gets you anything. Byrd would still have been a good trade for the team at twice the cost of Herrera and PTBNL,


I think in hindsight, yes, it went from an overpay to almost fair value. But when you make a trade you don't get that benefit, unfortunately.

So if a guy has X value on paper, that's what you should give up to acquire him. It's tough enough to predict the future, no sense in putting yourself in a hole right off the bat by overpaying.

I do think the Byrd trade turned out really well for us. But, on the flip side, maybe we overpaid a bit for Morneau by tossing in Welker as PTBNL. But again, that's judging off hindsight which isn't totally fair.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:12 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
Trumbo had a .778 OPS against righties in 2011. In 2012 his OPS against right handers was .808. Much more likely that last year was an outlier than a guy destined to be a platoon player. He had a bad year.


Maybe, but I wouldn't be so confident. It's not like the peripherals are really there to support that it's a guaranteed outlier down year outside of the consistent power which boosts the SLG. He posted a sub-.300 OBP against RHP and overall in 2011 and 2013 and had a 27% K rate last year (top ten worst in the league when the Pirates already have one of those in Alvarez and another approaching in Marte).

Not saying I don't have any interest in Trumbo, but I take exception with the "it's no comparison between Trumbo and Gaby" quip. If it's strictly reduced to their splits, Trumbo's career OPS vs. righties is only 48 points higher than Gaby. That's an improvement, but it's not night and day, people's ears just perk up because of the HR totals and it's easy to dismiss Gaby's BB rate and mashing the short end of the platoon. The way the current Pirates roster is constructed I'd be more comfortable going after an OBP guy than adding what could end up an Alvarez clone for the other corner.


I don't dismiss Gaby's attributes. I just think they don't go far enough. He is going to make a lot more cash next year and he offers no position flexibility. It is great that he mashes the short end of the platoon. Problem is that short end is really short. The NL Central has such few lefty starters that they don't get nearly as much value out of platoons as most team. They only faced 31 left handed starters all last year. I think the Bucs need a full time 1B. I think Trumbo could rebound and be that guy. But I wouldn't be opposed to a solid left handed hitting 1B with less than ideal splits either because they wouldn't be exposed to that much lefty pitching anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:01 pm 
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All of your points are right on, MJdouble. We need an everyday player. Give Trumbo and Gabby both 500 ABs next year, and I would bet my life that Trumbo outperforms him in just about every offensive category except OBP, which I think is extremely overvalued for power hitters.

Walks don't drive in runs (unless the bases are loaded)- hits drive in runs. How many times does a middle-of-the-order guy come up with a runner or two on base hoping to drive in a run, only to get pitched around? I've seen that diffuse a rally thousands of times over the year. That's why I can't get excited about a power hitter's OBP. Kevin Youkilis, the "Greek God of Walks" has driven in 100 runs exactly once in his career. Oh, yeah, I forgot- RBIs are a meaningless stat as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2013 10:06 pm 
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doug frobel wrote:
All of your points are right on, MJdouble. We need an everyday player. Give Trumbo and Gabby both 500 ABs next year, and I would bet my life that Trumbo outperforms him in just about every offensive category except OBP, which I think is extremely overvalued for power hitters.

Walks don't drive in runs (unless the bases are loaded)- hits drive in runs. How many times does a middle-of-the-order guy come up with a runner or two on base hoping to drive in a run, only to get pitched around? I've seen that diffuse a rally thousands of times over the year. That's why I can't get excited about a power hitter's OBP. Kevin Youkilis, the "Greek God of Walks" has driven in 100 runs exactly once in his career. Oh, yeah, I forgot- RBIs are a meaningless stat as well.

No, we don't need an very day player. We need a righty masher to match up with our lefty masher. An every day player with an .800 OPS is no better than a platoon with a combined .800 OPS.

By the way, you can't drive in runners that aren't on base. Packing the middle of the order with out machines like Alvarez and Trumbo would kill the entire offense.

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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 3:32 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
By the way, you can't drive in runners that aren't on base. Packing the middle of the order with out machines like Alvarez and Trumbo would kill the entire offense.


You'd think people would get this given the fact that Cutch drove in exactly 0 guys in the Playoffs due to Marte and Walker's inability to get on base.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:04 pm 
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Oh, I get it. But you are talking about the guys hitting in front of the guys I'm talking about. Completely different set of expectations there. I give a crap about their OBP. But my 4 and 5 hitters having a high OPB is not as important to me.

I will agree with you, it would not be good to have Alvarez and Trumbo hitting back-to-back with each hitting .230. But I could think of worse things.

I'm too technologically challenged to find out for myself, but I would like to know the record of all the teams in recent history with back-to-back 30HR, 100 RBI hitters in their lineup. I'll take my chances with that.


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 Post subject: Re: Guess Who's on the Trading Block?
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:26 pm 
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I think the problem is that those 100 RBIs aren't created by the guys who drive them in.

I would imagine the success rate of teams with back to back 30 HR hitters is high. But I don't think it's necessarily because the 30 HR guys are good....it also implies that the 1 and 2 hitters are good enough to enable the heart of the order to rack up the RBI totals.

So, it's more a product of the implication that they have 4 really good players, rather than it being 2 really good players creating all of those runs.

Having 4 great players in your lineup is a pretty solid start for anybody.

Big reason why people hated Dusty's lineup construction where he'd break up his 4 good hitters with a black hole bat handler like Cozart.

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