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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:39 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Would Locke's back issue before the All Star Break have anything to do with his 2nd half woes also?


It was more to do with luck just catching up with him. His peripherals were way out of whack in the first half despite the sparkling ERA -- extremely high strand rate, reliance on an incredibly low BABIP. Not things that are generally sustainable when you carry a high BB/low K rate and a massive discrepancy between a terrific ERA and mediocre FIP. In the second half the luck ran out and he was hit like the back of the rotation pitcher he was anticipated to be.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:43 pm 
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val wrote:
Everybody but Cutch is tradeable. But I don't want prospects for Melancon. We made the playoffs last year and it would have to be a proven professional with team control for me to part with Mark.


I wouldn't even be concerned with team control. I'd deal Melancon for an upgrade at 1B even for a player that would become a free agent after the season. I wonder if Victor Martinez knees are good enough to play the field every day. He did feel spry enough to catch a few games toward the end of the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:59 pm 
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Just like anything, if the return is good enough of course you trade him.

I don't know what his value would be with only one year of control and a scary past, but I'd absolutely trade him for a Matt Garza type of return. I think the rationale here is that if he regresses, it'd be better to have traded him for value in terms of helping the franchise. If he doesn't, then he's gone and you're getting at best a draft pick for him because somebody is going to seriously overpay for him (seriously, did everybody see the deal Lincecum just got?).

Also agree that Melancon and Grilli are trade candidates. Any reliever coming off a big year should be. They're just so mercurial and overvalued on the trade market that it's pretty much the only logical choice.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:41 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Just like anything, if the return is good enough of course you trade him.

I don't know what his value would be with only one year of control and a scary past, but I'd absolutely trade him for a Matt Garza type of return. I think the rationale here is that if he regresses, it'd be better to have traded him for value in terms of helping the franchise. If he doesn't, then he's gone and you're getting at best a draft pick for him because somebody is going to seriously overpay for him (seriously, did everybody see the deal Lincecum just got?).

Also agree that Melancon and Grilli are trade candidates. Any reliever coming off a big year should be. They're just so mercurial and overvalued on the trade market that it's pretty much the only logical choice.


A Garza type return doesn't cut it for this team. That was a deal for prospects, and none that were sure bets to immediately improve a major league team. The Bucs are contenders. Sure, they need to look to the future but you don't sacrifice the present when you are a contender.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:05 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:07 pm 
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I don't think they'll get a major league player for Liriano. The deal is too short.

I think if you get a deal that can help you for multiple years, instead of one year of Liriano, you do it.

He won't be around for their main window, they need to maximize value for him. If that comes in the form of a team giving you a really generous offer, take it. If not, then sure, let him pitch this year and see what happens.

Next year's not a one-time shot, they still have a ton of arms in the minors they need to make room for and figure out what they have. Any guy that isn't a piece of your next 5 years needs to be on the table. That's just the reality of a small market team, unfortunately.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:24 pm 
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I don't know who the Pirates will trade or who they should trade, but I expect no significant regression from Liriano.

All the factors that contributed to his big year last year will be there again next year.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:36 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't think they'll get a major league player for Liriano. The deal is too short.

I think if you get a deal that can help you for multiple years, instead of one year of Liriano, you do it.

He won't be around for their main window, they need to maximize value for him. If that comes in the form of a team giving you a really generous offer, take it. If not, then sure, let him pitch this year and see what happens.

Next year's not a one-time shot, they still have a ton of arms in the minors they need to make room for and figure out what they have. Any guy that isn't a piece of your next 5 years needs to be on the table. That's just the reality of a small market team, unfortunately.


I think when you are close you don't take steps back. You go for it. You don't subtract from a 94 win team for help down the road. You have to be cautious and bit frugal as a small market team but you also should have a winner's mentality. You certainly keep your ear open for offers that could immediately improve the club and perhaps you may need to move a player to reallocate dollars (like Hanrahan) but you don't go looking to move a guy just because his value is high. What kind of message does that send to players? Why would a free agent choose to come play for an organization that would dump them for prospects when they are on the precipice of great things?


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:05 pm 
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My view is that they're going to be losing Liriano either way so there's no point in delaying taking a step back if you can get legitimate value for him now. I certainly don't trade him for nothing, but I think a big return would be tough to say no to.

Either way the step back is coming, I'd rather get value in the meantime if it's real value.

It's not like we're debating trading Cole or a guy who is arb eligible. Liriano is either an ace again and we lose him or he takes a step back and we can keep him but who knows if they will.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:23 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
My view is that they're going to be losing Liriano either way so there's no point in delaying taking a step back if you can get legitimate value for him now. I certainly don't trade him for nothing, but I think a big return would be tough to say no to.

Either way the step back is coming, I'd rather get value in the meantime if it's real value.

It's not like we're debating trading Cole or a guy who is arb eligible. Liriano is either an ace again and we lose him or he takes a step back and we can keep him but who knows if they will.


No point delaying? Seriously? This team won 94 game this year. They are a legitimate contender next year. Subtracting a guy that dominated their two division rivals all season erodes their chances. I'd much prefer they get value from Liriano by what he does on the mound to contribute to another playoff run.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:44 pm 
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Liriano for Mark Trumbo?

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:53 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
My view is that they're going to be losing Liriano either way so there's no point in delaying taking a step back if you can get legitimate value for him now. I certainly don't trade him for nothing, but I think a big return would be tough to say no to.

Either way the step back is coming, I'd rather get value in the meantime if it's real value.

It's not like we're debating trading Cole or a guy who is arb eligible. Liriano is either an ace again and we lose him or he takes a step back and we can keep him but who knows if they will.


No point delaying? Seriously? This team won 94 game this year. They are a legitimate contender next year. Subtracting a guy that dominated their two division rivals all season erodes their chances. I'd much prefer they get value from Liriano by what he does on the mound to contribute to another playoff run.


I'm not sold on them being a 94 win team again. Still think they need to build for the window rather than trying to catch lightning in a bottle again and resting on their laurels.

Once Locke faltered and the bullpen came back to earth they were a slightly above .500 team.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:58 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
My view is that they're going to be losing Liriano either way so there's no point in delaying taking a step back if you can get legitimate value for him now. I certainly don't trade him for nothing, but I think a big return would be tough to say no to.

Either way the step back is coming, I'd rather get value in the meantime if it's real value.

It's not like we're debating trading Cole or a guy who is arb eligible. Liriano is either an ace again and we lose him or he takes a step back and we can keep him but who knows if they will.


No point delaying? Seriously? This team won 94 game this year. They are a legitimate contender next year. Subtracting a guy that dominated their two division rivals all season erodes their chances. I'd much prefer they get value from Liriano by what he does on the mound to contribute to another playoff run.


In other words your main concern is fielding the best team we can next year. And there's nothing wrong with that.

SA's point I think is that the guys Liriano could bring would be worth more over the long term than Liriano for one year is worth. And there is merit to that line of thinking as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:10 pm 
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200 innings from Liriano this year and a compensatory pick when he becomes a FA after 2014 have a lot more value, IMO, than the return the team is going to get by dealing him.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:15 pm 
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Tim Lincecum just signed a 2-year deal with the San Francisco Giants worth $35 million.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/98646 ... sco-giants

Why do I bring this up?

Well, Lincecum is 29 years old, just like Liriano. He has a spotty recent history, just like Liriano.

Would you sign Liriano to a 2-year extension for $35 million? That would keep him with the Pirates through the 2016 season. I'd certainly float the idea to Liriano's agent now that Lincecum has signed for that amount. Just a thought.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:29 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Would you sign Liriano to a 2-year extension for $35 million? That would keep him with the Pirates through the 2016 season. I'd certainly float the idea to Liriano's agent now that Lincecum has signed for that amount. Just a thought.


No freaking way. The Giants can support a $142M payroll. If the Giants want to devote 12% of their payroll in Tim Lincecum, fine. Have at it.

If the Pirates payroll is $75M, signing Liriano would equate to devoting 22.6% of payroll into one player. A pitcher. For two years. I wouldn't do it.

The Pirates and the Giants may both be MLB franchises but any notion that they are competing in the same "market" for free agents is, IMO, a fallacy.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:11 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Would you sign Liriano to a 2-year extension for $35 million? That would keep him with the Pirates through the 2016 season. I'd certainly float the idea to Liriano's agent now that Lincecum has signed for that amount. Just a thought.


No freaking way. The Giants can support a $142M payroll. If the Giants want to devote 12% of their payroll in Tim Lincecum, fine. Have at it.

If the Pirates payroll is $75M, signing Liriano would equate to devoting 22.6% of payroll into one player. A pitcher. For two years. I wouldn't do it.

The Pirates and the Giants may both be MLB franchises but any notion that they are competing in the same "market" for free agents is, IMO, a fallacy.


With an extra $20-25 million in national television revenue coming, an increase in attendance from 1.6 million (2011) to nearly 2.3 million (2013), and whatever additional revenue the team brought in through its playoff appearance, the Pirates are capable of increasing payroll to $100M while still making money. Check out this article by Tim Williams:

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/10 ... -2014.html

Now, I'm not saying Liriano is necessarily worth around 17% of the team's projected payroll. But I am saying that the Pirates can't find an elite left-handed starting pitcher for less than that right now, and the team doesn't have any elite left-handed hurlers close to the majors to take Frankie's place.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:15 pm 
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And here's a useful page to bookmark. It projects the Pirates' 2014 roster and payroll:

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2014payroll


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:51 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Tim Lincecum just signed a 2-year deal with the San Francisco Giants worth $35 million.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/98646 ... sco-giants

Why do I bring this up?

Well, Lincecum is 29 years old, just like Liriano. He has a spotty recent history, just like Liriano.

Would you sign Liriano to a 2-year extension for $35 million? That would keep him with the Pirates through the 2016 season. I'd certainly float the idea to Liriano's agent now that Lincecum has signed for that amount. Just a thought.


As a general rule I'd never give a pitcher big money. Far more difficult to predict, far greater injury risk. It's why the Rays deal guys like Shields and Price rather than extend them.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:40 am 
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I don't see Liriano being a buc for the long term, unless he wants to be. If he replicates the kind of year he had this year in 2014 then he'll be looking to bank. So yeah you trade him if.....the bucs are out of it at the trade deadline next year and if he's having a great year it'll net a nice return.


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