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 Post subject: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:11 pm 
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Interesting thought from Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/10/first-pitch-should-the-pirates-trade-francisco-liriano.html


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:04 pm 
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I think this notion that the Bucs can just rehabilitate the careers of any pitcher is a dangerous line of thinking. You can't count on flawed pitchers to turn it around every year. It is ok to target guys like that for the back end of the rotation. But no real contender should be counting on that for the top of the rotation. You move Liriano and you lose a front line starter and replace him with a question mark. And I don't get this fear of the clock striking midnight and Liriano turning back into a pumpkin. If people have such great faith in the coaching staff to turn these reclamation projects into gold they should have equal faith the staff can keep them on the tracks. By the way, anyone notice that both Liriano and Burnett spent time in extended spring training due to injuries not related to their throwing arms? Maybe that is the key. If they were to sign Josh Johnson they should put it as a condition in his contract that he has to break his left hand and spend 3 to 4 extra weeks in Bradenton.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:44 pm 
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Heck, I was thinking more of extending him.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:32 pm 
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This is a guy who in 2006 was arguably the best pitcher in baseball, then was terrible, then got really good again last year in a pitcher's park for an NL team. Because of his track record, I just can't see the return being worth it.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:14 am 
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No.

I wish all tests were this easy.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:41 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
No.

I wish all tests were this easy.

You must not test very well :lol:

We all want to have Liriano come back. We all want him to have as good a year next year as he had this past season. We all like the guy.

But, as the Nationals proved this past season, sometimes just trying to keep all your guys around for a subsequent season is just not enough. Winning at sports requires a shark mentality: keep swimming or you're dead. And besides, there's a reason that Liriano has won the Comeback Player of the Year award twice, because he's followed up solid years with really really sucky years. Liriano doesn't have the track record of a guy to risk betting on. And besides, look what we got for a much less valued Joel Hanrahan... I don't know that I'd be beating the bushes trying to trade Liriano, but we certainly ought to be willing to look long and hard at the offers that come in.

The way I see it, there are only 6 guys who we shouldn't trade: McCutchen, Marte, Martin, Melancon, Mercer and Cole. Anyone else? Let's see what they can bring. We still need a 1B.






Oh, and obviously Mercer is not an untouchable. I just threw him in the list because we've got so many M's and if I'd included Morneau, Animal might have burst a capillary.


Edit: Woo Hoo!!! My 1000th post. I'd hoped to reach that milestone during a slightly more magical October, but what can you do......


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:26 am 
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Well, no.

I read an inherent contradiction in William's thinking. In one sense, the Pirate rehab program "works" so you get a good pitcher. In the next, well... not so much because whatever you did obviously will not "hold" and he will regress and the world will go dark, so we need to trade him now.

His is the inherently "fantasy league" approach. Not reality. If Liriano regresses, it doesn't mean he sucks again. Burnett "regressed" too, but he certainly was a very useful top of the rotation starter.

The answer is an emphatic no.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:28 am 
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Liriano was a big success and so was Burnett, but don't forget about the Jonathan Sanchez and Eric Bedard failures.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:40 am 
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val wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
No.

I wish all tests were this easy.

You must not test very well :lol:

We all want to have Liriano come back. We all want him to have as good a year next year as he had this past season. We all like the guy.

But, as the Nationals proved this past season, sometimes just trying to keep all your guys around for a subsequent season is just not enough. Winning at sports requires a shark mentality: keep swimming or you're dead. And besides, there's a reason that Liriano has won the Comeback Player of the Year award twice, because he's followed up solid years with really really sucky years. Liriano doesn't have the track record of a guy to risk betting on. And besides, look what we got for a much less valued Joel Hanrahan... I don't know that I'd be beating the bushes trying to trade Liriano, but we certainly ought to be willing to look long and hard at the offers that come in.

The way I see it, there are only 6 guys who we shouldn't trade: McCutchen, Marte, Martin, Melancon, Mercer and Cole. Anyone else? Let's see what they can bring. We still need a 1B.






Oh, and obviously Mercer is not an untouchable. I just threw him in the list because we've got so many M's and if I'd included Morneau, Animal might have burst a capillary.


Edit: Woo Hoo!!! My 1000th post. I'd hoped to reach that milestone during a slightly more magical October, but what can you do......



I actually think Melancon would be a great trade candidate, if someone wanted to give us some good value for him.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:42 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Well, no.

I read an inherent contradiction in William's thinking. In one sense, the Pirate rehab program "works" so you get a good pitcher. In the next, well... not so much because whatever you did obviously will not "hold" and he will regress and the world will go dark, so we need to trade him now.

His is the inherently "fantasy league" approach. Not reality. If Liriano regresses, it doesn't mean he sucks again. Burnett "regressed" too, but he certainly was a very useful top of the rotation starter.

The answer is an emphatic no.

ZM


Burnett pretty much stayed the same.

Problem with Liriano is that he has "regressed" in the past, and it's been painful. And that's also why while I would trade him if some team made it worth my while, I don't see it happening and in that case I'd much rather keep him than trade him just because I think I have pitcher magic or something.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:45 am 
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I would not trade Liriano. I fully understand that he has a history of putting together back-to-back seasons and I'd be lying if I said that I have no concerns that he might put up an off year. But . . . he's a lefty, he should be motivated since he is in a contract year, he should have a solid defense behind him. I think that keeping him is a solid play.

As for Burnett . . . I'm still waffling over him. While I have enjoyed his fiery nature in the past and believe that it came at a good time, the "act" may be wearing a tad thin. Maybe the team sees AJ as being AJ but I truly feel as though Hurdle left AJ in games when he would have yanked others because of AJ's volatile nature. I don't see that as being a positive. If the manager feels as though he must leave a pitcher in the game because, if he yanks him, the pitcher is going to lose his mind in the dugout and be a distraction . . . that's a problem.

Would Burnett be a solid #3 starter behind Cole and Liriano or, if you want to throw Morton into the mix, a solid #4? Yeah . . probably. But . . . AJ is bull headed. He is going to pitch as he sees fit and -as we saw - he showed a tendency to wear down after the 5th or 6th innings later in the season. If I felt that AJ was "wired" to put it all out there for 5 or 6 innings and willingly yield to a well-rested bullpen, then I'd be all for bringing him back. But I can't help but think that he continues to view himself as an "ace" workhorse and that we will see a markedly less effective AJ in the second half of 2014.

And, straight from the Oliver Stone Conspiracy Department, I felt like Jeff Locke's steadfast refusal to change his approach to hitters when things went sideways is a direct result of his close friendship with AJ. The "I'm going to do what I'm going to do" comments from Locke after the All Star break seemed to be straight from the AJ playbook. I can see AJ confiding in Locke and saying "don't change a thing. Pitch like you want to." I willingly acknowledge that I am engaging in some guess and speculation here but after watching Locke stubbornly refuse to change his approach to hitters in the second half caused me to wonder a bit . . .

All that being written, I'm leaning towards hoping that Burnett comes back as I am not convinced that there is anything in the system that can match what he could bring to the table on 4/1/14.

It may very well be a different story on 7/1/14 when we hope to see Taillon join the rotation and perhaps another.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:53 am 
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Certainly believable.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:01 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
And, straight from the Oliver Stone Conspiracy Department, I felt like Jeff Locke's steadfast refusal to change his approach to hitters when things went sideways is a direct result of his close friendship with AJ. The "I'm going to do what I'm going to do" comments from Locke after the All Star break seemed to be straight from the AJ playbook. I can see AJ confiding in Locke and saying "don't change a thing. Pitch like you want to." I willingly acknowledge that I am engaging in some guess and speculation here but after watching Locke stubbornly refuse to change his approach to hitters in the second half caused me to wonder a bit . . .


Would Locke's back issue before the All Star Break have anything to do with his 2nd half woes also?

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:05 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I actually think Melancon would be a great trade candidate, if someone wanted to give us some good value for him.


Would you trade Melancon or Grilli? Melancon proved he can close and is younger. Grilli is older, has a history of injuries, and is in his final year of his contract.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:30 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Burnett pretty much stayed the same.
.


That is my point. Burnett was "fixed" (according to Williams) and maintained it here, while demonstrating regression in Toronto/NYY stints.

Why wouldn't Liriano stay "fixed" in PNC Park, if as Williams asserts, they have figured out a way to fix players.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:06 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Burnett pretty much stayed the same.
.


That is my point. Burnett was "fixed" (according to Williams) and maintained it here, while demonstrating regression in Toronto/NYY stints.

Why wouldn't Liriano stay "fixed" in PNC Park, if as Williams asserts, they have figured out a way to fix players.



Fair enough, but Burnett outside of 2 years in New York was well above average throughout his career. Liriano is the opposite - he's been terrible outside of two great years.

I see your point but I also see the point that he might be a very viable trade candidate if some team wanted to throw a ton of good prospects the Pirates' way. I just don't see the potential return he'd get worth trading him for.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:07 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I actually think Melancon would be a great trade candidate, if someone wanted to give us some good value for him.


Would you trade Melancon or Grilli? Melancon proved he can close and is younger. Grilli is older, has a history of injuries, and is in his final year of his contract.



I don't think Grilli would get good enough value. Melancon's numbers were just incredible last year.

Relief pitching is generally so year-to-year that I am usually pro-trade if the return is right.

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:19 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Fair enough, but Burnett outside of 2 years in New York was well above average throughout his career. Liriano is the opposite - he's been terrible outside of two great years.

I see your point but I also see the point that he might be a very viable trade candidate if some team wanted to throw a ton of good prospects the Pirates' way. I just don't see the potential return he'd get worth trading him for.


I can buy that, but my selling price would be very, very high. Wil Myers high. No mid-level prospects need apply.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:29 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Fair enough, but Burnett outside of 2 years in New York was well above average throughout his career. Liriano is the opposite - he's been terrible outside of two great years.

I see your point but I also see the point that he might be a very viable trade candidate if some team wanted to throw a ton of good prospects the Pirates' way. I just don't see the potential return he'd get worth trading him for.


I can buy that, but my selling price would be very, very high. Wil Myers high. No mid-level prospects need apply.

ZM

Everybody but Cutch is tradeable. But I don't want prospects for Melancon. We made the playoffs last year and it would have to be a proven professional with team control for me to part with Mark.


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 Post subject: Re: Should the Pirates trade Frankie?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:31 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Would you trade Melancon or Grilli? Melancon proved he can close and is younger. Grilli is older, has a history of injuries, and is in his final year of his contract.


For the right return? In a heartbeat. No reliever should be deemed untouchable for the right return, even Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman. Neil Huntington has proved maybe more so than anything else that he is masterful at acquiring quality bullpen arms, whether it be through FA scrapheap reclamation projects or trades that were undervalued by other teams, and sometimes ultimately flipping them for something of greater value (Dotel, Hanrahan, Veras, Resop, etc.)


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