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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 2:20 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Really? I see and hear this quote a lot. Guess Clemente and Parker couldn't play for you.


Weren't you arguing the other day that Polanco doesn't project like a lead-off hitter because you compared him to Parker? I suspected that meant that you anticipate Polanco's power to end up outweighing his speed/plate discipline tools. So not sure why you're now saying Parker wasn't a power hitter. He was, so the overall comparison is moot.

As to the overall point, at full optimism you'd like to think that the combined OBPs of that hypothetical OF (Tabata mixed in as the 4th OF as well) as well as the value in defense that it will outweigh the lack of power, especially when McCutchen actually does provide above average power himself and Marte and Polanco could very well in the future. A big reason the power numbers were down this year was 1B and Jones not being a lock for 20-25 HRs. Even though Gaby supplemented a bit, Jones needed to be mashing righties more. And then you got virtually 0 power from that position after the Morneau acquisition.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 3:55 pm 
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I don't care so much about homers or walks, I look at OPS. And by that measure alone, Marte is an above average left fielder. Factor in the defense and speed on the bases and he is well above average.

And this was his first full year in the majors. I expect him to improve quite a bit from what he did this year, which was already pretty good.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 4:45 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
I don't care so much about homers or walks, I look at OPS. And by that measure alone, Marte is an above average left fielder. Factor in the defense and speed on the bases and he is well above average.

And this was his first full year in the majors. I expect him to improve quite a bit from what he did this year, which was already pretty good.



I worry a bit because a lot of his OBP value is tied to getting hit by pitches.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:08 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Really? I see and hear this quote a lot. Guess Clemente and Parker couldn't play for you.


Weren't you arguing the other day that Polanco doesn't project like a lead-off hitter because you compared him to Parker? I suspected that meant that you anticipate Polanco's power to end up outweighing his speed/plate discipline tools. So not sure why you're now saying Parker wasn't a power hitter. He was, so the overall comparison is moot...


Never considered Parker a pure power hitter, and I think it rare folks do. He was a mid-20's HR guy for his career. Would you call McCutcheon a "power hitter"? High OPS, yes. Lots of doubles, yes, but only 166 HRS in 1300 ABs for the Pirates. Sorry, when I talk power hitter, I am talking Stargell, Kiner, Pedro types.

And, that is why I see Polanco and Parker comparisons. He looks and hits like Parker. Parker was never a leadoff guy.

And, that is why I wonder why folks always clamor for a "power hitter" for RF, then are just fine with doubles/high average/high OPS guys like Clemente and Parker, but not Tabata.

Polanco doesn't project as a leadoff guy because he will be too big and bulky by the time he arrives, so you might as well stay with Marte who will still be a gazelle.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:57 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Never considered Parker a pure power hitter, and I think it rare folks do. He was a mid-20's HR guy for his career. Would you call McCutcheon a "power hitter"? High OPS, yes. Lots of doubles, yes, but only 166 HRS in 1300 ABs for the Pirates. Sorry, when I talk power hitter, I am talking Stargell, Kiner, Pedro types.


Well, regardless of your definition of a "pure" power hitter, I still think you're being awfully dismissive of Parker, especially making such a statement like you said originally that "guess you wouldn't have Parker in your OF" when someone says they want players with power there. The guy has the 96th most HRs of all-time, that ain't exactly a light number. Sure, if you compare him to an elite type like Stargell it's a level down, but again doesn't justify acting like the guy didn't have plus power. Comparing his power to McCutchen's? McCutchen had one 30+ HR in a likely career year and will likely never have another. Parker had three 30+ HR years (and as Mister Pittsburgh pointed out, 20+ ten times in his career). I just don't see how you come to that conclusion at all. Did he have elite, Stargell-like power? No. But that doesn't mean that you compare him to a player with non-existent power like Tabata when he hit 339 HRs.

Still don't really agree about that Polanco assessment, either. He would need to do a whole lot of growing and all very soon to be "big and bulky" considering his ETA is likely mid-year or 2015 at the very latest, and he is at 6'4, 206lbs. 206 isn't very much when a professional athlete is that tall, at 6'4" that's actually a pretty lean frame. Now, I don't disagree with you that he won't develop power years down the road as his frame continued to fill out. But there's no reason to suggest that as of now (i.e. when he likely gets promoted next year) that he doesn't project like a lead-off hitter. High OBP, excellent plate discipline, plus speed, to this point average power. There's really nowhere else in the line-up you put him if you're going by the book, unless maybe 2nd if you move Walker down.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:06 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I worry a bit because a lot of his OBP value is tied to getting hit by pitches.


Yep. That's why the 25% K rate is such a concern. He was HBP 24 times last year (2nd in the league -- for comparison, 3rd was hit just 18 times). That isn't very likely to continue in the future, especially if the Pirates/Reds beanball shenanigans finally come to an end (Choo was the only player hit more than Marte at 26 times, and I'm sure they were each hit 4-5 times by each other over the season). Walker and Frazier are also in the top 10 of HBP which probably also speaks to the Reds back and fourth plunking.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:03 am 
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OK then, to make you happy,

I guess Clemente couldn't play RF for you.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:31 am 
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I don't think there's much of a "profile" with positions anymore. I think of a guy puts up solid numbers, how he gets there is of little consequence.

Plus there are always exceptions. For the most part, your 1B does need to hit since there's no real value in the glove or legs usually, but you look at LF (the lowest value OF position) and stuff can really change. Take PNC, where you essentially need a 2nd CF out there. Unless you're bumping Cutch over or get Cespedes/Trout in a trade you're going go be hard pressed to get that corner OF bat production. Doesn't necessarily mean you're any worse off, there's just more than one way to skin a cat these days to get positive value.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:26 am 
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That is my point. Clemente, Parker, and I believe, Polanco power production is fine as long as the other aspects of the game are equally as good.

Teams have always tried to develop players for their home parks, or develop their park for a player in some cases.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:41 am 
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Yeah I think if Polanco maintains the plate discipline, continues hitting doubles and triples, and keeps stealing bases efficiently he'll be a big plus next year.

I think the power will come eventually. Just not right now, and that's fine. He's not a one trick pony who needs to hit for power (like a Lambo) to have value. Even when scouts were tweeting about his great BP at the Futures Game it was more about what the raw power indicated than what his current game power is.

FWIW, Law mentioned in his chat yesterday that he thinks Polanco will be a star in a couple of years.

The Pirates are looking like they'll have an embarrassment of riches in the OF once again with Bell getting a big write-up from Callis yesterday, Harold Ramirez being named the #1 prospect in the NYPL, Meadows getting some Top 30 buzz, and Michael de la Cruz coming over to the states next year.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:41 pm 
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Well, someone will have to cover for 'Cutch when he leaves for UFA, or is moved in the last year of his contract.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:47 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Well, someone will have to cover for 'Cutch when he leaves for UFA, or is moved in the last year of his contract.

ZM


Yup. Makes having Marte and Polanco a great luxury. Extend one of them to be your CF/cornerstone then fill in on either side with Meadows, Bell, Barnes, Ramirez, de la Cruz, etc.

Best way to maintain some continuity and extend the window.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:02 pm 
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Might be wishful thinking, but I'm not looking for a window, I'm looking for an ongoing, long-term process.

If the Pirates acquire and develop talent the way they should, there will be some good or even great players who have to be traded during their arbitration years, because there won't be room in the budget to sign everyone.

And those players will bring other, younger players, to feed the back end of the pipeline.

Just like the Rays and the A's have done.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:55 pm 
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I agree, it's just difficult to project long-term success because our margin of error is so small and we don't know how Huntington will approach guys nearing the end of their time here.

Mostly, I stick with windows for now because prospects aren't a given. At least in the lower minors. Right now we know we have a solid core at the ML league, we know we have a lot of capable pitchers at the AA/AAA level, and we know we have some good pitchers under our control at the MLB level. Given that, I think it's safe to assume we will contend until Cutch's contract is up at minimum.

If Meadows, Bell, Glasnow, etc. all progress, obviously the window is greatly extended but it's just not a guarantee. I'm hoping that the contention window keeps stretching further and further, but it's just tough to say "we'll contend for the next decade" when we don't know how guys in A ball will progress. Everything has been encouraging so far, but you never know when something unforeseeable and out of anybody's control could occur.

But yes, ideally they go the Rays route instead of the Brewers route where they shoot their wad over a one-time shot instead of continuing to build. Small market teams should never go "all-in" because ideally you don't ever have a roster full of older players on their last legs and a total rebuild looking you dead in the eyes.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:26 pm 
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Dr. Phibes wrote:
ZelieMike wrote:
Mister Pittsburgh wrote:
Not much power from your corner OF would be my only complaint. We'd be looking at getting probably 20 to 25 HR total from LF and RF combined.



Really? I see and hear this quote a lot. Guess Clemente and Parker couldn't play for you.

ZM


Parker hit over 20 HR ten times in his career, over 25 six times, and over 30 HR three times.

Marte hit 12 this year and Polanco has 16 in 2012 and 12 this year. Until they do otherwise, I'd stick by the comment of not much power from the corner OF positions with those 3. Maybe they will grow into it though.

Clemente was a career .317 hitter with some power. Yeah, get Marte and Polanco hitting over .300 and the power isn't as important. Hitting .280 with only 12 HR and drawing only 25 walks isn't really what you want out of a corner OF but luckily Marte plays superb defense (other than his few bonehead games).

Polanco will draw an acceptable number of walks. He managed 38 this year and 44 last year.

Marte, however, needs to be more selective. The only reason his OBP was passable this year was those 24 HBP's. He only drew 25 walks. Even Clemente wasn't much of a hitter until he started drawing 35 walks or more a year.

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:22 am 
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Personally I am sick of all this "WE have to have this this and this for a corner outfielder" or "This guy hits too well to play second base." Can't we just have quality baseball players at whatever position they are good at?

The Cards don't hit homeruns and they don't steal bases! Gee, where are they right now.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:05 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
your 1B does need to hit since there's no real value in the glove


Must respectfully disagree on the glove part. Some pick it better than others and how many base runners does that save you in a season.

I would love to see Morneau for 1 year at 5 mil and let him and Gaby do the job. Sorry Animal but can't see GI Jones doing much more at this point in his career..... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:32 pm 
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Corsair wrote:
Personally I am sick of all this "WE have to have this this and this for a corner outfielder" or "This guy hits too well to play second base." Can't we just have quality baseball players at whatever position they are good at?

The Cards don't hit homeruns and they don't steal bases! Gee, where are they right now.


Yep, the team with the 13th most HR in the NL is in the World Series.

The Giants hit the fewest HR in the NL last year. Where did they end up?

If we just compare hitting, I'd take the Allen Craig type over the Pedro type every single time.


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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 12:16 am 
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Polanco hit a 3-run HR last night in his first game of the season in the Dominican Winter League. Also singled, walked, and threw out 2 runners at the plate.

He hit another home run tonight. The scouts saying June might not be too far off. This is about midway between AA and AAA competition.

Not particularly relevant to the topic of the thread, just didn't want to make another thread when this one was somewhat similar ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Polanco or Marte for LF?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:04 pm 
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Corsair wrote:
Personally I am sick of all this "WE have to have this this and this for a corner outfielder" or "This guy hits too well to play second base." Can't we just have quality baseball players at whatever position they are good at?

The Cards don't hit homeruns and they don't steal bases! Gee, where are they right now.


Homeruns won the Cardinals game 4 vs. us, and game 5.


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