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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:44 pm 
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You guys wont like this but if you dont sign Abrau you need to try and keep Morneau. He has a bigger upside in the NL. The dingers will come.


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:08 pm 
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Why wouldn't you want Byrd over DeJesus?

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:14 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Go: Justin Morneau, Marlon Byrd, Garrett Jones, Gaby Sanchez, John Buck
Stay: A.J. Burnett (the Pirates should slap the $14M qualifying offer on him), Jose Tabata (4th OF), Clint Barmes (back-up SS, 1 year, $1.5M)
Sign: Jose Dariel Abreu (4 years, $44M), Travis Hafner (1 year, $2M), David DeJesus (2 years, $8M)

Probable 2014 Opening Day Lineup:

1 -- Starling Marte, LF
2 -- David DeJesus, RF
3 -- Andrew McCutchen, CF
4 -- Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5 -- Jose Abreu, 1B
6 -- Neil Walker, 2B
7 -- Russell Martin, C
8 -- Jordy Mercer, SS
9 -- Gerrit Cole, P

Bench: Tony Sanchez (C), Jose Tabata (OF), Travis Hafner (1B), Clint Barmes (SS), Josh Harrison (UTIL)
Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Charlie Morton, Wandy Rodriguez/Jeff Locke
Bullpen: Stolmy Pimentel, Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Justin Wilson, Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli


Except for Hafner and DeJesus, this.

Hopefully A.J. isn't pissed about being snubbed or worn out from a long career.

Hopefully Wandy will be healthy enough to contribute; be it starting from spring training or somewhere around July.

Hopefully the Bucs pony up enough dough and have the best offer for Abreu.

As for why not on Hafner/DeJesus: Tabata is younger and could probably equal DeJesus' production without having to allocate extra money. Lambo is also younger/cheaper and could be groomed as a GFJ part deux (1B/RF). That would allow one more spot for an up and comer or 'right fit' FA X, who could be paid for with the saving of a hypothetical $10 M.

EDIT: Come to think of it, I forgot about Gaby. Slide him in the Lambo role and then...? Maybe keep Lambo as 1B/PH/OF? Seems doable.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:23 pm 
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Really want them to make a legit two year offer for Byrd. I think at his age he would settle for a two year deal. I have also wondered if he could learn to play first base.

Not sure anymore how much I want AJ back. He giveth and he taketh away. Good with younger pitchers, but brings far too much drama. Not sure I'd want to deal with that if I were managing the team.


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:36 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Not sure anymore how much I want AJ back. He giveth and he taketh away. Good with younger pitchers, but brings far too much drama. Not sure I'd want to deal with that if I were managing the team.


The main reason it'd be nice for A.J. to re-sign (aside from what could be two-three years of significant contribution(s)) is depth.

The only definites for next year's rotation are Liriano and Cole. Morton is arb eligible, Locke pulled a J-Mac and Wandy got hurt.

Even if Wandy is healthy, Morton retained and Locke rebounds as a servicable option #5, you can't account for injuries and slumps.

Do you really want to rely on Cumpton, Irwin, K-Mac, Jeanmar and Stolmy types every four/five days (IF some of those guys are retained)?

You'd like for A.J. to be the #2 guy after Liriano, so as to ease Cole into his 'Ace' role and provide rotation depth.

That would also allow for an easy transition for Taillon ala Cole this year.

Liriano-A.J.-Cole-Wandy would be a very solid 'Close Encouters' pile of mashed potatoes top four and it therefore the fifth guy would be pure gravy.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:06 am 
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My big thing with Byrd is that any contract would need to be one that makes him highly movable as a trade piece. And coming off a career year, I doubt he'd be willing to do that. The age and PEDs just make me more nervous about giving him a good deal.

But above all else, he's just not the answer in RF. It's going to be one of Lambo, Tabata, or Polanco if for no other reason than we have a solid 5-6 years (and certainly the possibility for more....depending on how this next wave develops in the minors) ahead of us and Byrd will be 40 before then. He's just not a "piece".

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:40 pm 
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If A.J. Burnett retires or leaves, you know who would make a decent reclamation project?

Josh Johnson

From Tim Williams:

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/10 ... oblem.html

A prime candidate could be Josh Johnson. He looks like the perfect bounce back player. His ERA was 6.20, but his xFIP was 3.58. His strikeouts actually went up to a career best 9.18 K/9, and his walks didn’t increase that much to a 3.32 BB/9. The problem was his home runs and went way up. That was the result of an 18.5% HR/FB ratio. He also had a .356 BABIP and a 63.3% strand rate.

Johnson got an average amount of ground balls (45%). He also throws a two-seam fastball, but only throws it 13.3% of the time, compared to 45.7% with his four seam fastball. He throws a slider 20.6% of the time. The Pirates have had success with pitchers like Johnson by getting them to rely on their two-seam fastball more often to generate more ground balls.

There is the injury factor to consider. Johnson recently had elbow surgery to remove bone spurs. It was a minor surgery, and there were no issues found with his elbow ligament. He will be throwing again in five weeks, and will probably be looking for a one year deal. Even if they sign Burnett, Johnson seems like the perfect gamble to take to get another potential top of the rotation guy. And if they don’t sign Burnett, Johnson would be a great alternative.


A reasonably priced 1- or 2-year deal for Johnson would give the Pirates a veteran pitcher with excellent stuff who could be the next Burnett/Liriano.


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:47 pm 
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Fascinating.

He completely ignored Morton in the rotation. WTF?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:52 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Fascinating.

He completely ignored Morton in the rotation. WTF?

ZM


Just as a top-of-the-rotation guy. Charlie's a good #4 starter or a decent #3 starter, but he's not a #1 or #2. Too much contact and luck involved in his game. Johnson has the "stuff" of a #1 or #2 guy, and a great strikeout rate. If he's healthy and Ray Searage can work a little magic, the rotation could be sick with Cole, Liriano, Johnson, Morton, and Rodriguez/Locke/Pimentel.


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:56 pm 
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He listed 4 starters and added Johnson to the mix, that would be five without Morton. So...

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:30 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If A.J. Burnett retires or leaves, you know who would make a decent reclamation project?

Josh Johnson

From Tim Williams:

...

A reasonably priced 1- or 2-year deal for Johnson would give the Pirates a veteran pitcher with excellent stuff who could be the next Burnett/Liriano.


Yes, that would seem like a usual NH move.

Tim Hudson, Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum might also fit the bill as 'reclamation projects', albeit less economically efficient ones.

It's too bad that Jeff Niemann has one arb year left and is playing for the 'arbitrage' Rays. He'd be a good 'buy low' candidate.

One last possible candidate might be Brett Anderson. The A's have a $1.5 M buyout option on him and he's been injury prone and/or ineffective since his rookie season.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:09 pm 
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I'm not sure you need any of that, though JJ wanted to come into the "pitchers reclamation park" at a reasonable price, I would like it.

The key is Morton. I don't agree with J-C on him... now. Earlier in the year, yes. But, not now. Now, he is a pitcher with an effective 93-94 fastball with incredible sink, a 4-seamer that moves, and a curve that he has moved onto the inside corner of lefties to take away the edge the USED to have.

He is a top 3 pitcher right now, mimicking a prime time Halliday.

With that, you can take a long look at Kyle McPherson and Phil Irwin. Two guys on the cusp and expected to be ahead of Locke before injury. McPherson in particular is intriguing.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:45 pm 
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And for what it's worth, Cumpton proved he can get ML hitters out too. I think our pitching depth allows us to possibly part ways with Burnett and still be in good shape.....I can also feel for AJ and his being passed over. It is not easy at any level. No. 1 son was a No. 3-4 guy for four years in college and was dropped to the pen for all 3 years that they made playoffs. It is a difficult transition and tough both mentally and physically.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:20 pm 
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Dan Szymborski (ZiPS creator) has Byrd getting a 1 year/ $12M deal or 2 years/$22M.

No way he gets that from the Pirates. Also mentioned he didn't think the Pirates were likely to re-sign him, citing Polanco being ready and Byrd being an unlikely candidate to duplicate this season.

Cited his .353 BABIP and the fact he hit better than he did in even his prime years as indicators that he's due for a big regression. Has him at .268/.315/.425 if he stays in Pittsburgh, which is nowhere near as poor as his 2012 season but not really worth keeping around either.

Should be interesting to see who rolls the dice on him. Szymborski mentioned Baltimore. Might be a solid stopgap fit.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:33 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If A.J. Burnett retires or leaves, you know who would make a decent reclamation project?

Josh Johnson


Josh Johnson is a right handed pitcher. The bottom line is this. The Reds and Cardinals will not change much in the off season. If the Reds change anything it will be them trading right handed Brandon Phillip's elephant like contract for a no# 2 or 3 starter. If the Pirates want compete for the division they will need to take it from the Reds and cardinals. Both those teams are vulnerable to left handed pitching. The Pirates will need to exchange Right Handed Burnett for a medium priced Lefty.... (Paul Maholm?)

Lets look at the rotation as it stands with one exception. I'm going to procrastinate in a positive way, Jeff Locke to Indy at best. (Maybe not resigned)*

1. Fransisco Liriano LHP
2. Wandy Rodriguez LHP
3. Garrett Cole RHP
4. Charlie Morton RHP
5. Burnett, Cumpton, Karstens, Pimentel, (Taillon (Wont be up till June 15 earliest) RHP

If there is an injury to a left handed starter (Uh Um, slider Liriano and arthritis wandy) and you have to replace them with another righty, you are screwed in this division.

**Jeff Locke is a free agent. Ace's will look to get a huge bump in salary for the Left Handed all-star. Doubts he will be a Pirate in 2014.


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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:52 am 
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Locke isn't arb eligible yet. He'll be a free agent in 2019. I believe he has an option year left though so they could lose him that way after the 2014 season. But that's doubtful with Wandy and Liriano's contracts both being up.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:05 pm 
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Well, NH has said publicly that he is going to aggressively offer AJ, and he should IMO. The guy still had the best K rate per 9 in the league this year.

Aside from the ghost of the arch at St. Louis, he is still very effective.

That said, a JJ reclamation would give you one of the very best pitchers in the league... against anyone. I gotta think pitchers are thinking seriously of PNC these days given the numbers put up there for them.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:24 pm 
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There were some rumors flying around that AJ told Hurdle before Game #5 that he would not pitch out of the bullpen. Has that been confirmed or refuted?

I've purposefully stayed away from Pirates news over the past few days because I needed some "down time." Just wondering if that little piece of information has been discussed.

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 1:40 pm 
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Found my answer: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/spo ... ch-707080/

What an embarrassment to Smizik. Exhibit 2,345,231 . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Go....Stay
PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:17 pm 
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VanSlick wrote:
Mister Pittsburgh wrote:
Wonder if Byrd could transition to 1B.


Interesting thought.

I REALLY like Byrd. I saw a postgame interview with him last night and he definitely wants to be a part of this team moving forward. He's a gamer.



I like Byrd too. But with him, it all comes down to PEDs to me and how much they contributed to his resurgence.

If he wanted to come back for a year and a few mil, I'd take my chances that it wasn't all roid related. But anymore than that and I'd let him walk.

I also would prefer to keep Snider for another year and I don't get why people want to run Joey Tabats out of town. He's a decent RF option, I think, let alone 4th OF bench piece.

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