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 Post subject: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:53 am 
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According to MLB.com's projections, the Reds have the identical rotation for this weekend that the Bucs just saw in Pittsburgh.

Friday: Latos
Saturday: Bailey
Sunday: Arroyo

If seeding remains in play, the Bucs would almost certainly counter with:

Friday: Burnett
Saturday: Morton
Sunday: Cole

If this is how it plays out and if the Reds and Pirates end up playing each other in a wild card game, Baker would choose from either Cueto or Leake to pitch on Tuesday. Cueto would be pitching on a full week's rest and Leake would be pitching on 6 days rest.

Leake has turned in three decent performances (2 against Astros and Cubs; 1 against Dodgers) after enduring a fairly rough stretch in August and early September. Against the Pirates, Leake was hit hard by the Bucs at PNC Park in mid-April but turned in a gem at PNC Park on June 1st (0 runs over 6 innings). Leake also turned in a good performance against the Bucs on July 19 at GABP (1 run over 7 innings).

Cueto has been decent in his two starts since coming back from injury but those starts were against the Astros and Mets. Of note, Cueto lost to the Bucs in an abbreviated early April outing but one hit them over 8 innings on May 31st. Both games were at PNC Park.

Liriano's lines against the Reds this year?
6/1 (PNC Park) - 6 IP; 4 H; 11 Ks; 1 BB; 1 R - (Bucs lost 3-2)
6/17 (GABP) - 6 IP; 5 H; 2 BB; 6 Ks; 2 R (both solo HRs) (Bucs lost 5-3)
Friday (PNC Park) - 8 IP; 3 H; 3 BB; 2 R (one solo HR) (Bucs lost 6-5)

FWIW - below is a Reds' blogger's take on a potential Game #163 matchup involving Liriano and Latos. The only way that will happen is if the Reds pitch Latos against the Mets on Wednesday and Reynolds is currently listed as the probably starter. If Latos pitches on Friday against the Pirates, I don't see how he could pitch on Tuesday - particularly if either Cueto or Leake is fresh and ready to go.

http://blogredmachine.com/2013/09/24/ga ... os-bailey/

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 2:24 pm 
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This means Cueto in the wild card game. I don't like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:15 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
This means Cueto in the wild card game. I don't like that.


Then just win [the division], baby!

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:55 pm 
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Biertempfel saying on twitter that Latos' next start has been moved up to Wednesday and he's therefore in line to start wild card game Wednesday. Interesting...


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:02 pm 
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I don't care.

I don't care who pitches against us, and I don't care if it ends up being Liriano, Cole, Burnett, OR Morton.

Just do it!

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:53 am 
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I'm not a handicapper, but I'd put the odds on the Wild Card game as follows:

Pirates @ Reds -- Pirates have a 40% chance of winning.
Reds @ Pirates -- Pirates have a 60% chance of winning.


That's why I believe home field is HUUUUUGE. Gotta grab every advantage you can.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:25 am 
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are 95-67 at home over the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

HOME FIELD MATTERS.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:46 am 
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Yes, but since the Reds have decided on Lato's, I'm pretty confident. They have hit Latos when I've watched.

I am waiting on today's outcomes and maybe the first of the Reds series to see if they shift their rotation around so that, say, Homer Baily (the Buc killer) comes in.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:01 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
They have hit Latos when I've watched.


You're judging it only on when you've watched? Furthermore was last week's game against Latos the only time you've watched?

The Pirates have hit .199 against Latos over the last three years (2.11 ERA, 40 Ks in 38 IP). That's terrible, and certainly not even close to warranting that you'd be "confident" facing him. Yeah, good that they got to him last time out, and I'd rather face Latos than Cueto, but you can't overlook him just because they got to him the last time out. Cueto and Latos are bigger "Pirates killers" than Bailey is. The no-hitter is ancient history at this point, the Pirates have hit Bailey better than Cueto or Latos.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:56 pm 
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I am not talking about the last three years. I am talking about now, this year, and especially after his injury.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:17 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
I am not talking about the last three years. I am talking about now, this year, and especially after his injury.


Then you're basically just confirming that you're mainly just thinking of one game from last week. He's only made two starts against the Pirates post-injury, one of which he gave up 2 runs on 4 hits. His other starts against the Pirates the rest of the year outside of last week ...

- 3 ER
- 2 ER
- 1 ER
- 1 ER
- 3 ER

By the way, not sure how much I'm really buying into the injury thing in general. I'm sure there's something to it, but I don't put that much stock into it. He has a bad outing as the pennant race is at it's most intense in late September, and he tells the media that the fans don't realize he's been batting an injury for 3 months that the manager and coaching staff didn't know about all this time. Plus the numbers he has posted since the "injury" are consistent with his career norms, and overall he has been better in the second half. Again, all of that came out just because of one bad game.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 2:40 pm 
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RoxyChar wrote:
Biertempfel saying on twitter that Latos' next start has been moved up to Wednesday and he's therefore in line to start wild card game Wednesday. Interesting...


Today's game against the Mets became markedly more important after Leake crapped himself last night. If the Reds don't win today and the Pirates win, the Bucs need only one victory over the weekend to host the wild card game. If the Reds win today, it doesn't matter what the Pirates do today, home field will be earned by the team that wins two of the games this weekend.

Moving Latos makes a ton of sense in light of the "must win" nature of the game.

Looks like this weekend will be (as long as seeding remains in doubt):
Burnett v. Bailey
Morton v. Arroyo
Cole v. Cueto

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Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:20 pm 
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Look at it this way folks. You're playing in a "First to Three" scenario to get a home field and a trip to St. Louis.

The playoff really is more than one game right now.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Looking ahead
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:20 pm 
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Thought this was an interesting take:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the- ... card-game/


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