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 Post subject: Re: September 16, 2013 Padres (68-80) at Pirates (87-62)
PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:52 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
I just don't think the offense is that bad at all when you look at the other offenses around the league. Especially in the NL, since swapping out a pitcher for a guy who literally did nothing but hit his way into MLB doesn't exactly make for fair comparisons.

It's like the offense will never be good enough unless it's scoring the most runs in baseball.....


Teams at or below the Pirates' run production in NL:
Florida - 3.2/game (55 wins)
Philadelphia - 3.8/game (69 wins)
New York - 3.9/game (67 wins)
Milwaukee- 3.9/game (65 wins)
San Fransisco - 3.9/game (69 wins)
San Diego - 3.8/game (68 wins)

Bottom Line? There isn't a NL team that is scoring below 4 runs/game that has 70 wins - except the Pirates. You can call it "average" or "not that bad" by whatever measure you'd like, but there run production is at or better than only the scourge of the NL. They are at the bottom of any team that is considered remotely successful. There is no escaping the fact that pitching has more than held up its end of the equation. Its been the offense's production that has far more frequently been the problem.

With the pitcher's production, you don't need the most prolific offense ever and - despite your contention otherwise - I don't see anyone clamoring for that. A slightly above average offense would have this team several games ahead in the divisional standings and likely leading the NL for home field advantage through the playoffs.

My take? Too many players whose offensive production suffers from severe peaks and valleys.


+++++++++

Let's hope the Bucs can score some runs the next three games against the Padres and WIN these games!

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 Post subject: Re: September 16, 2013 Padres (68-80) at Pirates (87-62)
PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:23 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't like using runs to gauge an offense as there are far too many variables involved.

Defense, baserunning, luck, ballparks. It's just not a good way to gauge the capabilities of one facet of the game when that facet is merely a component of a run.

It's definitely not a neat and tidy stat that can be attributed solely to an offense. It's why Run Creation stats have gained a ton of traction. An offense can control the runs they create. They can't control the runs they get or lose because of defense, baserunning, or luck.


According to FanGraphs, the Pirates have the lowest wRC of any team with a winning record. They may be dead middle of the NL (8th of 15 teams), but no team below them has won 70 games yet.

So . . . using either actual runs scored or an adjusted number based upon a number of factors, you can conclude that the Pirates have the best offense among the lousy NL teams or the worst offense among the good NL teams. Since we all consider this team to be a contender this year . . . desiring stronger and more consistent offensive output doesn't seem to be too out of place.


Indeed. And here's what's happened lately to drag down the Pirates' ability to score runs (from Rumbunter):

Neil Walker is in a 3-for-35 funk. He's .086 with two walks and eight strikeouts in his past ten games.

Russell Martin is in a 4-for-32 funk. The most durable and, arguably, best defensive catcher in the game, is hitting .125 with eleven strikeouts–the big hit was the white stuffing in the oreo back-to-back-to-back homer fest against the Cubs.

Pedro Alvarez is in a 6-for-32 funk. El Toro has one homer, the inside-the-park sixteen second sprint with three walks and eight strikeouts.


At least two of those three guys have to get it going for the offense to hold its own in the final dozen games...


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 Post subject: Re: September 16, 2013 Padres (68-80) at Pirates (87-62)
PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 3:06 pm 
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Their wRC+ is 5th in the NL and ahead of the Reds and Nats. Also Baltimore, Texas, KC, and Arizona. Yankees as well but they've fallen off since they were challenging.

I'm really only concerned with non-pitcher wRC+ because it's the only thing that allows you to compare the AL and NL teams somewhat equally. AL teams still get an extra good hitter, but at least you aren't tossing in the pitcher spot to make things even more tilted in the AL's favor offensively.

For instance, the Cards offense goes from 3rd to 7th when the pitcher is added in. It just isn't an apples to apples comparison, and if you want to argue it is, then the results are skewed at best. You can't really upgrade the pitcher spot offensively.

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