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 Post subject: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:25 pm 
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"Dream" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the two wildcard spots. Under the current system or the old system, the result would be the same. A one-game playoff in which the team with the best head-to-head record hosts a one-game playoff to see which team advances to the NLDS. No complaining about whether a one-game "play-in" is unfair.

"Nightmare" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the division title. A one-game playoff is needed to determine the division winner. The winner advances to NLDS. The loser (after using their best pitcher) heads home to face - based upon this year's NL Central - the team with the third best record in the division. The team which tied for the division lead (again . . . after burning their best pitcher) must play a one-game playoff against the third place team's best pitcher to play in the NLDS. If they lose that game, a team which tied for the division title would not play in an extended playoff series.

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 12:37 pm 
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that is a bad scenerio. however i do like the new wildcard better than the one from before. it penalizes you for not winning the division. you might have to use your #1 in the last game of the season to get into the wildcard, then your #2 in the wildcard game. much better than the Marlins having the wildcard locked up and setting up their pitching for the NLDS and having an equal shot as the 3 divison winners.

Plus a 1 game do or die is great to watch.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:03 pm 
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But why punish a team with a one game play in game when they could possibly have the 2nd best record in the league and the division at the same time and allow a team who had a weak division a guaranteed playoff series?

I like the old the wild card system.

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:06 pm 
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markfnc wrote:
that is a bad scenerio. however i do like the new wildcard better than the one from before. it penalizes you for not winning the division. you might have to use your #1 in the last game of the season to get into the wildcard, then your #2 in the wildcard game. much better than the Marlins having the wildcard locked up and setting up their pitching for the NLDS and having an equal shot as the 3 divison winners.

Plus a 1 game do or die is great to watch.


Mark -
I know that his will incur Bucco Boy's wrath, but I also like the new system. It was a good tweak for exactly the reason you point out.
No. 9

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:09 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
But why punish a team with a one game play in game when they could possibly have the 2nd best record in the league and the division at the same time and allow a team who had a weak division a guaranteed playoff series?

I like the old the wild card system.


Dan,
I disagree with your analysis.
Respectfully,
Pete Carroll

;)

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 1:20 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
markfnc wrote:
that is a bad scenerio. however i do like the new wildcard better than the one from before. it penalizes you for not winning the division. you might have to use your #1 in the last game of the season to get into the wildcard, then your #2 in the wildcard game. much better than the Marlins having the wildcard locked up and setting up their pitching for the NLDS and having an equal shot as the 3 divison winners.

Plus a 1 game do or die is great to watch.


Mark -
I know that his will incur Bucco Boy's wrath, but I also like the new system. It was a good tweak for exactly the reason you point out.
No. 9


I do love these 1 game playoffs however I wouldn't be opposed to a best of 3 play-in series.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 2:52 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
"Dream" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the two wildcard spots. Under the current system or the old system, the result would be the same. A one-game playoff in which the team with the best head-to-head record hosts a one-game playoff to see which team advances to the NLDS. No complaining about whether a one-game "play-in" is unfair.

"Nightmare" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the division title. A one-game playoff is needed to determine the division winner. The winner advances to NLDS. The loser (after using their best pitcher) heads home to face - based upon this year's NL Central - the team with the third best record in the division. The team which tied for the division lead (again . . . after burning their best pitcher) must play a one-game playoff against the third place team's best pitcher to play in the NLDS. If they lose that game, a team which tied for the division title would not play in an extended playoff series.


I see where you're going with that 9. If two teams tie for the division those two teams should walk into a 5 game series, home field to the team with the better division record.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:32 pm 
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buccosfan77 wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
"Dream" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the two wildcard spots. Under the current system or the old system, the result would be the same. A one-game playoff in which the team with the best head-to-head record hosts a one-game playoff to see which team advances to the NLDS. No complaining about whether a one-game "play-in" is unfair.

"Nightmare" scenario for MLB:
Two NL Central teams tie for the division title. A one-game playoff is needed to determine the division winner. The winner advances to NLDS. The loser (after using their best pitcher) heads home to face - based upon this year's NL Central - the team with the third best record in the division. The team which tied for the division lead (again . . . after burning their best pitcher) must play a one-game playoff against the third place team's best pitcher to play in the NLDS. If they lose that game, a team which tied for the division title would not play in an extended playoff series.


I see where you're going with that 9. If two teams tie for the division those two teams should walk into a 5 game series, home field to the team with the better division record.


Not exactly. Just pointing out that it is possible - given the two wild-card team process - that a team that ties for the division title could end up losing the tiebreaker game, then lose the wildcard "play-in" game and be done. '

Here's another potentially ridiculous example:
NL East Champ: Braves 94-68
NL West Champ: Dodgers 94-68
NL Central Co-Champs: Reds 95-67 and Cardinals 95-67
Wildcard #2: Pirates 92-70

Reds would play at St. Louis for division title. Homer Bailey pitches against Adam Wainwright (Cards #1). Reds win. Cardinals stay at home and pitch Joe Kelly (Cards #2) against Francisco Liriano (Pirates #1). If Cards lose, they would have the best regular season record in NL but would not qualify for a multi-game playoff series. That would have the sports talk radio airwaves howling.

This year, a tie at the top of the NL Central for the division title is certainly not outside the realm of reality. Those two teams won't likely have the best record in the NL but . . . if that a tie occurs . . . one of those two "co-champs" will be facing a situation where they are in a one game elimination contest facing their opponent's ace.

I'm not saying that the second wild-card team should be eliminated in that situation. I'm just pointing out the potential for what many would consider to be "unfair."

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:38 pm 
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Just more evidence that Bud Selig should be tarred and feathered.

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:41 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:
Just more evidence that Bud Selig should be tarred and feathered.


I'll take "Shocking Opinions" for $500, Alex. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:30 pm 
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The 'nighmare scenario' truly does expose MLB's (the commish's) ineptitude, but if it really came to it and a team tied for the best record in a League was left out of the playoff final four it would be their own fault for not winning when it mattered.

There are so many factors to determine who the 'true' best team is (RS/RA, SoS, H2H/DIV/LG record, etc.) that the 'nightmare scenario' shouldn't draw that much outrage (from rational fans).

So long as the W-L discrepancy wasn't too vast (an 85-to-88-win team in and a 93-to-95-win team out), it wouldn't be too much of a travesty.

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:44 pm 
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I wrote months ago that I hate the idea of a one game format for the wild cards. I'm fine with a 3 game series but one is just too random to ensure the best team has the best chance to advance.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:37 am 
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The scenario is very unlikely as you refer to starting pitchers for the play in game. I base that on the fact that if you are chasing the division to the last day you will be unable to skip starts to set up your starter for the play in game.

16 games to go....

Rotation: The number next to the name is games remaining when they pitch. If the rotation holds then Morton will pitch tonight (16 games left) 11 games left. 6 games left and then in the season finally.
Morton 16 -- 11 -- 6 -- 1
Cole 15 -- 10 -- 5 -- Play in
Liriano 14 -- 9 -- 4 -- NLDS Game 1
AJ 13 -- 8 -- 3 -- NLDS Game 2
Locke 12 -- 7 -- 2 NLDS Game 3

Reds Rotation:
Latos 16 -- 11 -- 6 -- 1
Bailey 15 -- 10 -- 5 -- Play in
Arroyo 14 -- 9 -- 4 -- NLDS 1
Cingrani 13 -- 8 -- 3 -- NLDS 2
Leake 12 -- 7 --2 -- NLDS 3


Cardinals Rotation:
Wainwright 16 -- 11 -- 6 -- 1
Wacha 15 -- 10 -- 5 -- Play in
Miller 14 -- 9 -- 4 -- NLDS 1
Lynn 13 -- 8 -- 3 -- NLDS 2
Kelly 12 --7 -- 2 -- NLDS 3

So if this thing goes to the wire the central will be at a severe disadvantage to the Braves and Dodgers who can lie in wait. One thing you have to consider when talking about the rotations is Johnny Cueto. He says he's ready. So likely long relief to start and then probably in Cingrani's spot. Or who knows...Play in game and move Bailey down one. That is a advantage for the lizard to be able to possible manipulate his rotation with a quality starter returning to the rotation where ever he wants to put him.
In the Pirates scenario i would Imagine Cole will be skipped. I would be hiding under my bed if Cole opposed Bailey or Wacha or Cueto. Also Wandy could figure in , but based on what I saw in Indianapolis i'm not sure he can crack the current rotation.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 4:06 pm 
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MoTownWV wrote:
I wrote months ago that I hate the idea of a one game format for the wild cards. I'm fine with a 3 game series but one is just too random to ensure the best team has the best chance to advance.

I don't like it.

First, the two wild-card teams burn through their pitching and go up against the division winners with their Nos. 4 and 5 SP'ers, even when the wild-card teams have spectacular records, like will happen this year.

Second, the division winners have to sit for 5 days, at least, before getting back into competition. A one or two day layoff is fine, but 5 days results in significant rust.

So a best-of-three wild card format would result in the wild-card teams rolling out their No. 4 or 5 SP'er against a rusty division champ.

Pass on that. I want the wild-card teams featuring their better starters against a division champ that is still baseball-ready.


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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:52 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
The scenario is very unlikely as you refer to starting pitchers for the play in game. I base that on the fact that if you are chasing the division to the last day you will be unable to skip starts to set up your starter for the play in game.

...breakdown of stats...

In the Pirates scenario i would Imagine Cole will be skipped. I would be hiding under my bed if Cole opposed Bailey or Wacha or Cueto. Also Wandy could figure in , but based on what I saw in Indianapolis i'm not sure he can crack the current rotation.


Excellent post.

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 Post subject: Re: NL Central "Nightmare" v. "Dream" scenarios for MLB
PostPosted: Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:01 am 
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tnx


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