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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:35 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???

The point is what are they going to do in September, not what they've done already, and I see no reason, none, not a single one, to believe that Morneau will out-hit Jones in September by any significant amount.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:35 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
But by all means let's concoct hypotheticals where a 1B's defense is going to be a difference maker.


Huh?!?


He's right. Defense doesn't matter at first base. You never see Jones replaced in the latter third of the game. I'm making shit up again. Busted.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:40 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???

The point is what are they going to do in September, not what they've done already, and I see no reason, none, not a single one, to believe that Morneau will out-hit Jones in September by any significant amount.


You've bought yourself a sure-fire defense by adding "significant" to your post. Talk about room for interpretation.

How about this? I'll bet you $100 that Morneau's OPS is higher than Jones' OPS for remainder of season starting tomorrow. I'm sure BB will be willing to hold the money and pay the winner.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:48 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
But by all means let's concoct hypotheticals where a 1B's defense is going to be a difference maker.


Huh?!?


He's right. Defense doesn't matter at first base. You never see Jones replaced in the latter third of the game. I'm making shit up again. Busted.


Yes because Clint Hurdle has proven time and time again to be a brilliant tactician.

Also, the Fangraphs article said morneua would have a higher batting contribution. It just mentioned that it is worth ONE RUN over the rest of the year. It's not worth it.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:57 pm 
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Well ... if Fangraphs wrote it ... how dare I question their assumptions and conclusions? Silly me. I need to get back on my medication and study the RE charts and WE tables.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:12 pm 
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Yeah, lets rely on emotions, the eye test, and the belief that there's some intangible romantic element to baseball to make decisions. That sounds like it should work, the teams who used that strategy just hit a run of bad luck against the sabremetric teams.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:38 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???

The point is what are they going to do in September, not what they've done already, and I see no reason, none, not a single one, to believe that Morneau will out-hit Jones in September by any significant amount.

First off, you wouldn't be getting rid of Jones. This, I presume, would be mainly a money deal. I think we agree not to give up any type of decent prospect.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:39 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???

The point is what are they going to do in September, not what they've done already, and I see no reason, none, not a single one, to believe that Morneau will out-hit Jones in September by any significant amount.

First off, you wouldn't be getting rid of Jones. This, I presume, would be mainly a money deal. I think we agree not to give up any type of decent prospect.

I don't think that we ALL agree that no decent prospect would be involved.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:43 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I don't think that we ALL agree that no decent prospect would be involved.

Didn't say that...said I think most of us agree that WE wouldn't trade a decent prospect. What NH feels would be fair, I have no idea.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:15 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???

The point is what are they going to do in September, not what they've done already, and I see no reason, none, not a single one, to believe that Morneau will out-hit Jones in September by any significant amount.


You've bought yourself a sure-fire defense by adding "significant" to your post. Talk about room for interpretation.

How about this? I'll bet you $100 that Morneau's OPS is higher than Jones' OPS for remainder of season starting tomorrow. I'm sure BB will be willing to hold the money and pay the winner.

I'm not stupid enough to bet you $100 that Jones will out-hit Morneau in September after saying over and over again that it's a coin toss. It's 50/50. At most, it's somewhere around 52/48. Odds like that are not worth giving away anything of value in a trade. As I said before, if you can get him for a bag of balls, go ahead. Anything more than that and I pass.

Tell you what, though. If Morneau's September OPS is higher than Jones' by 20 points or more, I'll buy you a beer next time you come to Pittsburgh for a game.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:16 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Yeah, lets rely on emotions, the eye test, and the belief that there's some intangible romantic element to baseball to make decisions. That sounds like it should work, the teams who used that strategy just hit a run of bad luck against the sabremetric teams.


Ah yes, the return of the angry SABR creed. Anyone who dares question your assumptions and conclusions must rely solely on emotions, only employ the "eye" test, sports broad foreheads and drag knuckles on the ground. Probably grunts a lot too.

More Moneyball fallout. Guys who can read a stat sheet and think that MLB is nothing more than 30 GMs playing Rotisserie Baseball and accumulating seasonal statistics.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:18 pm 
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I'm pretty sure just about everybody talking about Morneau on this board is reading a stat sheet.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:19 pm 
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That is all that it is. Except defense matters among premium positions and so do ballparks. It's a GM's game.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:26 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
That is all that it is. Except defense matters among premium positions and so do ballparks. It's a GM's game.


The SABR creed ... strategy does not exist. It is a game of stat accumulation.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:29 pm 
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Precisely. Even something as rudimentary as Runs Created can predict runs scored within 10%.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:23 am 
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Games don't matter . . . its all about stat accumulation.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 12:31 am 
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Games are decided by players. Not managers. Give the Astros to Joe Maddon, they'd still suck. Give the Reds to Ned Yost, they'd still be good (god knows Dusty has done his darnedest to ruin them).

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:44 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
1B is an incredibly low value defensive position with pretty much all the metrics coming down largely to range...


Let me hear you say this the next time Jone's throws a double play ball into left field.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:13 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
1B is an incredibly low value defensive position with pretty much all the metrics coming down largely to range...


Let me hear you say this the next time Jone's throws a double play ball into left field.


It's almost September, how many times has that happened this year?


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 10:59 am 
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I'm a big fan of advanced statistics, sabermetrics, and all that jazz. I am.

But the game is still played by human beings. And different human beings react differently in identical situations. Managing human beings is a tricky thing, and, believe it or not, experience matters. There is a reason so many managers lean on veteran players in a playoff race. It's not because they're stupid or don't read the same numbers we all have access to; rather, it's because they know that experienced players are generally more reliable and have less delta in their range of performance.

I like numbers, but baseball is still a situational game. It's not all about the aggregate. It's about what a guy can do with one out, runners on first and third, in a tie game in the bottom of the 7th inning. It's about locating a fastball down and away against a great hitter when the go-ahead run is in scoring position. At the end of the year, those outcomes will be numbers on a page. But in the moment, human beings will determine the result you get.


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