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 Post subject: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:07 pm 
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Conclusion: He's worth about 1 additional run over the remainder of the season. Not win. Run.

Also worth noting that he's in the midst of an 0-for-21 slump. I'll say it again, it makes no sense to pay to gamble on Morneau getting hot when you can gamble on Jones getting hot for free. There is negligible difference between them at this point in the season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/justin-morneau-and-the-pirates-first-base-platoon/

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:14 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Conclusion: He's worth about 1 additional run over the remainder of the season. Not win. Run.

Also worth noting that he's in the midst of an 0-for-21 slump. I'll say it again, it makes no sense to pay to gamble on Morneau getting hot when you can gamble on Jones getting hot for free. There is negligible difference between them at this point in the season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/justin-morneau-and-the-pirates-first-base-platoon/


I said it before and I will say it again. There is as much likelihood of Jones getting hot again as there is in Morneau coming here and being successful...

..and Jones is a very big part of this team's chemistry, which is extra important in a playoff run like this.

Thanks, but no thanks!

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:30 pm 
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I'm largely undecided on my stance on chemistry and have no real issues with getting rid of a guy if another guy is significantly better. Although, the chemistry thing could certainly have merit.

I just think there's no reason to believe that the grass is any greener when every objective measure says that it's the same grass you have, just with a sexier name and higher price tag.

They already overpaid for Byrd and Buck, there's no reason to give up a thing for nearly identical production.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:53 pm 
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If it costs anything more than a C-level prospect, I wouldn't do it. But if it's just that and money, why not? I'd rather have Morneau's bat, glove, and playoff experience on the roster.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:11 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If it costs anything more than a C-level prospect, I wouldn't do it. But if it's just that and money, why not? I'd rather have Morneau's bat, glove, and playoff experience on the roster.

Because it would be throwing away resources for a negligible difference. Morneau's bat is in decline, his glove is average at best, and the Pirates already have enough playoff experience in Russel Martin and AJ Burnett. Why burn even a C-level prospect in exchange for the status quo?

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:13 pm 
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They shouldn't even get a C-level prospect. This is nothing more than a paper move.

Not overly concerned about playoff experience. All that is is a study in small sample sizes. It's how Alfonso Soriano could absolutely tear things up his first time, then falter a couple years after. Guys get hot, guys go cold, previous experience doesn't have a ton to do with it from an offensive perspective. Pitchers concern me more, they have infinitely more control over their performances.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:21 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I'm largely undecided on my stance on chemistry and have no real issues with getting rid of a guy if another guy is significantly better. Although, the chemistry thing could certainly have merit.

I just think there's no reason to believe that the grass is any greener when every objective measure says that it's the same grass you have, just with a sexier name and higher price tag.

They already overpaid for Byrd and Buck, there's no reason to give up a thing for nearly identical production.


I'm a believer in team chemistry and more importantly, PLAYERS believer in it.

Look at the Mets over the years. Spending like crazy on free agents, only to end up with uneven teams full of guys looking at their pay stubs.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:10 pm 
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StarlingArcher is correct. Morneau hasn't had a hit in his last 21 official ABs.

Let's look behind the numbers. He is hitless in his last 4 games as a starter. However, in half of those four games, he had 2 walks per game. Thus, in two of those 4 games, Morneau had a .400 OBP even though he didn't get a hit.

In August, Morneau has started 24 games. He has reached base safely at least once in 19 of those 24 games. He has reached base safely more than once in 11 of those 24 games. He has failed to reach base safely in only 5 of those games.

Jones, on the other hand, has had more than one plate appearance in 19 games for the Pirates in August. He has reached safely at least once in 10 of those games. He has reached base safely in 7 of those games. He has failed to reach base safely in 9 of those games.

I didn't go back and check to see which pitchers that Morneau faced but he is, without question, the Twins starting first baseman against both righties and lefties. The relevant analysis isn't just based upon year-to-date stats. It involves the situations in which Morneau would be used. He's hitting better than Jones against right handed pitching now, he's hit better against right handed pitching year to date, Jones' glove is inferior, Jones' throwing is inferior and Jones is a much more of a black hole against left handed hitters.

You've got one inning to play and need to hold the other team scoreless. You can choose either Morneau or Jones to play first base. Who do I choose? Morneau. Every day and twice on Sundays.
You've got the winning runner on third base with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning. Its Friday night. Mujica on the mound for the Cardinals. You can choose between Morneau or Jones to come to the plate. Who would I pick to get the job done . . . right now? Morneau. Wouldn't even blink twice.

He is not as "extreme" on the splits as Jones, he is better defensively and he'd likely fit in well with the role that he'd be asked to fill.

I'm not trading a key prospect but I wouldn't mind seeing Huntington take on the balance of his salary. The Bucs would be a better squad with him on the team - immediately.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:15 pm 
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Exactly, No. 9. It baffles me that some don't like the potential move because it's only a "minor" upgrade. Unreal.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:16 pm 
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Well said, No. 9.


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:45 pm 
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They evaluate morneau used purely as a lefthander in a platoon in order to maximize his effectiveness. It's a one run difference.

But by all means let's concoct hypotheticals where a 1B's defense is going to be a difference maker.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:49 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
But by all means let's concoct hypotheticals where a 1B's defense is going to be a difference maker.


Huh?!?

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:54 pm 
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1B is an incredibly low value defensive position with pretty much all the metrics coming down largely to range. The degree of difficulty is tiny and the number of opportunities even smaller. Saying you need to hold a team scoreless and then acting like the 1B is going to make an ounce of difference is grasping at straws and using a highly unlikely scenario to justify a one run difference over 30 games.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:37 pm 
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Look at Jones and Morneau's season stats. Morneau better. Against RH's Morneau significantly better. If you don't give up much how can anyone claim it wouldn't give the Pirates a better chance of winning games? That is the point, correct???


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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:47 pm 
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VanSlick wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
I'm largely undecided on my stance on chemistry and have no real issues with getting rid of a guy if another guy is significantly better. Although, the chemistry thing could certainly have merit.

I just think there's no reason to believe that the grass is any greener when every objective measure says that it's the same grass you have, just with a sexier name and higher price tag.

They already overpaid for Byrd and Buck, there's no reason to give up a thing for nearly identical production.


I'm a believer in team chemistry and more importantly, PLAYERS believer in it.

Look at the Mets over the years. Spending like crazy on free agents, only to end up with uneven teams full of guys looking at their pay stubs.


I agree 100%....especially with a game that is so much mental like baseball. Jones is a very popular guy among this teammates. I think to replace him now would be a detriment to the team, at least in many players' minds. This team is among the best in baseball as it is. If you can make an obvious upgrade like adding Byrd for Lambo, then yes! But to make a move just to make a move when it may or may not substantially improve us, then NO!

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:22 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Conclusion: He's worth about 1 additional run over the remainder of the season. Not win. Run.

Also worth noting that he's in the midst of an 0-for-21 slump. I'll say it again, it makes no sense to pay to gamble on Morneau getting hot when you can gamble on Jones getting hot for free. There is negligible difference between them at this point in the season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/justin-morneau-and-the-pirates-first-base-platoon/

Amen, amen, amen. I've been saying exactly this for a month now. If you can get him for a bag of balls, fine. I wouldn't give up a prospect in our top 30 for him.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:24 pm 
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Animal wrote:
VanSlick wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
I'm largely undecided on my stance on chemistry and have no real issues with getting rid of a guy if another guy is significantly better. Although, the chemistry thing could certainly have merit.

I just think there's no reason to believe that the grass is any greener when every objective measure says that it's the same grass you have, just with a sexier name and higher price tag.

They already overpaid for Byrd and Buck, there's no reason to give up a thing for nearly identical production.


I'm a believer in team chemistry and more importantly, PLAYERS believer in it.

Look at the Mets over the years. Spending like crazy on free agents, only to end up with uneven teams full of guys looking at their pay stubs.


I agree 100%....especially with a game that is so much mental like baseball. Jones is a very popular guy among this teammates. I think to replace him now would be a detriment to the team, at least in many players' minds. This team is among the best in baseball as it is. If you can make an obvious upgrade like adding Byrd for Lambo, then yes! But to make a move just to make a move when it may or may not substantially improve us, then NO!


Who says you have to cut Jones if you get Morneau? Jones could still provide his chemistry from the bench.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:25 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
If it costs anything more than a C-level prospect, I wouldn't do it. But if it's just that and money, why not? I'd rather have Morneau's bat, glove, and playoff experience on the roster.

Morneau's bat = Jones' bat.

Morneau's playoff experience = Jones' "chemistry", if you believe that either of those things means anything, which I don't.

So you're basically trading for a defensive upgrade at the least important defensive position on the field, and that against righties only. A "C" prospect is too much.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:30 pm 
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The original discussion was trading Jones for Morneau...

I would take Morneau if we got him for next to nothing. He could be a good PH, defensive replacement, I would not play him over Jones.

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 Post subject: Re: Fangraphs on the Pirates and Justin Morneau
PostPosted: Wed Aug 28, 2013 9:32 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
StarlingArcher is correct. Morneau hasn't had a hit in his last 21 official ABs.

Let's look behind the numbers. He is hitless in his last 4 games as a starter. However, in half of those four games, he had 2 walks per game. Thus, in two of those 4 games, Morneau had a .400 OBP even though he didn't get a hit.

In August, Morneau has started 24 games. He has reached base safely at least once in 19 of those 24 games. He has reached base safely more than once in 11 of those 24 games. He has failed to reach base safely in only 5 of those games.

Jones, on the other hand, has had more than one plate appearance in 19 games for the Pirates in August. He has reached safely at least once in 10 of those games. He has reached base safely in 7 of those games. He has failed to reach base safely in 9 of those games.

I didn't go back and check to see which pitchers that Morneau faced but he is, without question, the Twins starting first baseman against both righties and lefties. The relevant analysis isn't just based upon year-to-date stats. It involves the situations in which Morneau would be used. He's hitting better than Jones against right handed pitching now, he's hit better against right handed pitching year to date, Jones' glove is inferior, Jones' throwing is inferior and Jones is a much more of a black hole against left handed hitters.

You've got one inning to play and need to hold the other team scoreless. You can choose either Morneau or Jones to play first base. Who do I choose? Morneau. Every day and twice on Sundays.
You've got the winning runner on third base with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning. Its Friday night. Mujica on the mound for the Cardinals. You can choose between Morneau or Jones to come to the plate. Who would I pick to get the job done . . . right now? Morneau. Wouldn't even blink twice.

He is not as "extreme" on the splits as Jones, he is better defensively and he'd likely fit in well with the role that he'd be asked to fill.

I'm not trading a key prospect but I wouldn't mind seeing Huntington take on the balance of his salary. The Bucs would be a better squad with him on the team - immediately.

I can't remember if I posted this here or at another forum, so my apologies if I'm repeating myself.

July OPS:
Morneau .596
Jones .804

August OPS:
Morneau .835 and falling like a stone.
Jones .492

I don't see any compelling reason that Morneau will hit better than Jones in September. I'd take him for a bag of balls and play the hot hand for the rest of the season, assuming that either one of them actually gets a hot hand. I wouldn't give up anyone who has any chance at all of making the major leagues without divine intervention.

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