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 Post subject: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:29 am 
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He's 1 for 28 (.036) in his last 10 games with 13 strikeouts.

That's a problem.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:43 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
He's 1 for 28 (.036) in his last 10 games with 13 strikeouts.

That's a problem.


Don't worry. He's just been unlucky. Because players always regress (or progress) to their established yearly statistical means, we can expect Garrett Jones' luck to turn and he'll start tearing the cover off the ball. I'm not worried at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:49 am 
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His August batting line is now .121/.224/.276, and his post-All Star break line is .188/.269/.385. At some point, you gotta pull the plug.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:54 am 
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No. 9 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
He's 1 for 28 (.036) in his last 10 games with 13 strikeouts.

That's a problem.


Don't worry. He's just been unlucky. Because players always regress (or progress) to their established yearly statistical means, we can expect Garrett Jones' luck to turn and he'll start tearing the cover off the ball. I'm not worried at all.

No they don't. Sometimes they just get worse. Hard to predict now which case it is: getting worse, or yet to progress, but your optimism, which is inspiring, will not win any games.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:59 am 
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I think val's sarcasm meter is broken this morning.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:07 pm 
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The regression has been sad to see. I did anticipate it would probably happen soon, but I never thought we'd see a situation this year where to to pan out to his career norms, he would need to hit 10+ HRs in September. The peripherals are just as discouraging, his BABIP is right around where it has always been on his career, and his 23.7 % K rate is at an all-time high. He has been awful, and it is a clear sign of significant natural regression. When he has as extreme platoon splits as he has and has a quality platoon partner to eat up 90% of those LHP ABs and he's struggling to post an OPS over .700 in late August, that's a signifier that you might want to let him walk next year.

Still, I love the production he has provided over the last 4 years given how cheap it cost. Quietly one of Huntington's better offensive acquisitions.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:12 pm 
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The question is what do you do this year?


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:13 pm 
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RoxyChar wrote:
I think val's sarcasm meter is broken this morning.


Yep.

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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:15 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
The question is what do you do this year?


No choice but to start him at 1B against RHP. He's obviously still hitting his side better than Gaby at a platoon disadvantage, and there are no other natural 1B on the roster.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:19 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
The question is what do you do this year?


No choice but to start him at 1B against RHP. He's obviously still hitting his side better than Gaby at a platoon disadvantage, and there are no other natural 1B on the roster.


Might as well give Lambo a try.

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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:25 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
The question is what do you do this year?


No choice but to start him at 1B against RHP. He's obviously still hitting his side better than Gaby at a platoon disadvantage, and there are no other natural 1B on the roster.


Might as well give Lambo a try.


Nah. I highly doubt you would see them give someone with less than 30 starts at a position in the minors that job in late August/September when the team is the middle of a pennant race.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:42 pm 
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I would just play Gaby at this point. He has had some success recently against RH pitching... 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 12:43 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
Nah. I highly doubt you would see them give someone with less than 30 starts at a position in the minors that job in late August/September when the team is the middle of a pennant race.


I dunno. Jones' bat has been awful, and his defense is just as bad. What do you lose giving someone else a shot?


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:06 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
RoxyChar wrote:
I think val's sarcasm meter is broken this morning.


Yep.

Apparently so....


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:09 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Nah. I highly doubt you would see them give someone with less than 30 starts at a position in the minors that job in late August/September when the team is the middle of a pennant race.


I dunno. Jones' bat has been awful, and his defense is just as bad. What do you lose giving someone else a shot?


The .731 OPS Jones is posting against RHP might not sound like much, but I'm not sure I have much faith that will be replicated by any internal options, i.e. starting a rookie outside of his natural position when he has little experience there and there are already serious questions regarding his bat due to the plate discipline issues in the minors. That might have been an experiment you tried early on, I don't think you try it in late August with the team contending. I'm not arguing Jones hasn't been terrible, like I said above if he is seeing RHP 95% of the time and hitting them this poorly I think you let him walk next year. But this year I don't think you're going to replace his production internally. And yes, he's not great defensively, but I think he has made the necessary strides at 1B the last few years to at least not be a defensive liability, which does count for something on a team that is constructed like the Pirates is.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:53 pm 
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What is his contract status?


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:15 pm 
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One more year of arbitration. Probably will be non-tendered unless he stages a comeback.


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:17 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
TheShark wrote:
Nah. I highly doubt you would see them give someone with less than 30 starts at a position in the minors that job in late August/September when the team is the middle of a pennant race.


I dunno. Jones' bat has been awful, and his defense is just as bad. What do you lose giving someone else a shot?


The .731 OPS Jones is posting against RHP might not sound like much, but I'm not sure I have much faith that will be replicated by any internal options, i.e. starting a rookie outside of his natural position when he has little experience there and there are already serious questions regarding his bat due to the plate discipline issues in the minors. That might have been an experiment you tried early on, I don't think you try it in late August with the team contending. I'm not arguing Jones hasn't been terrible, like I said above if he is seeing RHP 95% of the time and hitting them this poorly I think you let him walk next year. But this year I don't think you're going to replace his production internally. And yes, he's not great defensively, but I think he has made the necessary strides at 1B the last few years to at least not be a defensive liability, which does count for something on a team that is constructed like the Pirates is.


Pretty much this. And have we seen Justin Morneau since his hot streak ended August 9th? Also useless, aside from an outlier 4-5 game, and with nearly identical defensive numbers to boot. Neither guy is going to fix much, there just isn't a whole lot out there. Right now I think you just stick with Jones, his BABIP won't stay at .000 forever. The whole "get a rental/call a guy up, he might get hot" thing has, mercifully, become an antiquated view on how to run things.

Also MoTown, Jones is arb-eligible. So, probably a non-tender after this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:47 pm 
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The difference with this slump opposed to any others that I remember is that he is chasing downstairs more than ever. I don't see it reversing until he somehow reads that sooner, lays off, and gets ahead in the count, forcing the pitcher up. And you would think he would have thought of that already...


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 Post subject: Re: Garrett Jones
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:04 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Pretty much this. And have we seen Justin Morneau since his hot streak ended August 9th? Also useless, aside from an outlier 4-5 game, and with nearly identical defensive numbers to boot. Neither guy is going to fix much, there just isn't a whole lot out there. Right now I think you just stick with Jones, his BABIP won't stay at .000 forever. The whole "get a rental/call a guy up, he might get hot" thing has, mercifully, become an antiquated view on how to run things.


Well, we're still waiting for Jones' "outlier 4-5 game," StarlingArcher, and he's been God awful in August.

Also, they do not have "nearly identical defensive numbers." Check it out:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... tion=1B/OF

Jones is at -7.6 UZR/150 at 1B, with a .972 fielding percentage.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... osition=1B

Morneau is at 0.0 UZR/150 at 1B, with a .997 fielding percentage.

Not sure how that's "nearly identical" at all.

In terms of overall player value so far in 2013, Jones is at -0.4 WAR and Morneau is at 0.9 WAR. Looking at their respective splits against RHP to date, Jones is at .246/.301/.430 and Morneau is at .281/.345/.476. That's a pretty big difference, particularly in terms of getting on base and hitting for power.

Every win from now until the end of the season is precious, and may mean the difference between winning the division, falling into a wild card position, or hosting a playoff game. Adding Morneau for a marginal prospect would be a good move that would improve the Pirates by moving Jones into a bench role, getting a better bat in the lineup against RHP, and improving team defense at first base. Plus, as I've noted before, Morneau has playoff experience. That could be helpful as well.


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