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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:39 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I just don't see how you can watch this past series and think that the Buccos are in bad shape. Yeah, a fluke dropped pop-up turned 2 out of 3 into 1 out of 3. Does anybody actually think that they are going to continue dropping routine flies?

They left some runners on the bases that should have scored, but that is anything but new for this team. It did not just happen in this past series.


This.

Like I said, I hated the outcome, but it happens.

There was nothing to 'hang your head' about here. This series should serve to motivate.

The Bucs bounced make after a near no-show vs. the Rox, but couldn't catch breaks. All they have to do is focus on making a few more plays and things will be pretty perfect.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:39 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Gotta agree with SA here. 'Awesome' isn't the right word, but there was quality baseball played all three games/27+ innings.

One really dumb mistake cost the series and another really bad inning cost a potential sweep. Those two events included, the Bucs still could have taken 2/3 or the sweep with one or two plays.

This really should serve as a benchmark series; it had all the makings of a playoff face-off.

Bucs need to remember this one; because the lessons here were many.


If the lessons are learned and future series are won, I will be fine with it. Today and Tuesday were frustrating as hell to watch, though.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:40 pm 
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Not to mention, the Cards weren't exactly stellar there either, and they got stymied by Charlie Morton who -- from what I can gather -- would be better served carrying the bags around for some AA team. So hey, the Cards offense is doomed too, right?

I swear, people are just looking for reasons to be disgusted. Believe me, I was there last year. I was calling for a collapse, screaming about not doing anything dumb at the trade deadline, and taking a lot of flak. I'm not being positive for the sake of being positive. There's nothing that screams "fluky" aside from maybe Locke but even with him putting up a 3.38 ERA in July (close to his FIP) he's a darn solid lefthander.

This is a legit team. An "ahead of the curve" team with the youngsters. I swear if we were sitting around 6 games over .500 people would be happier finishing 82-80 than if we were to wind up even a Wild Card this year.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:40 pm 
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If Marte catches that ball, we're talking about how the Bucs righted the ship. We're talking about them as playing well. But he didn't, so there's panic. I mean to each their own and all, but...it's the Cardinals. The team considered by many to be the best team in all of beisbol. In St. Louis. I still would feel good about a playoff series against that team.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:42 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Not to mention, the Cards weren't exactly stellar there either, and they got stymied by Charlie Morton who -- from what I can gather -- would be better served carrying the bags around for some AA team. So hey, the Cards offense is doomed too, right?

I swear, people are just looking for reasons to be disgusted. Believe me, I was there last year. I was calling for a collapse, screaming about not doing anything dumb at the trade deadline, and taking a lot of flak. I'm not being positive for the sake of being positive. There's nothing that screams "fluky" aside from maybe Locke but even with him putting up a 3.38 ERA in July (close to his FIP) he's a darn solid lefthander.

This is a legit team. An "ahead of the curve" team with the youngsters. I swear if we were sitting around 6 games over .500 people would be happier finishing 82-80 than if we were to wind up even a Wild Card this year.



The Cards blew like 8 chances to win on Tuesday before finally doing so. Then they got dominated by a journeyman pitcher who just gave up 10 to the Rockies.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:42 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Basically, a bunt resigns you to most likely scoring once. Hitting away doesn't diminish the chances of scoring once and adds to the probability of scoring more than once. It's a strategy that, over the long run, yields more runs.


Its about winning today. Not about accumulating the most number of runs at the end of the year. Its not Rotisserie Baseball.

StarlingArcher wrote:


Basically, a bunt resigns you to most likely scoring once. Hitting away doesn't diminish the chances of scoring once and adds to the probability of scoring more than once.


Even Tom Tango wouldn't agree with you here.

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StarlingArcher wrote:
It doesn't add to your chances of scoring a run to bunt the top of your order with 0 outs.


This assumes that there a likelihood that a Marte out will advance Harrison. Given that his strength is pulling the ball and the frequency of his strike outs, I don't buy the assumption.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:44 pm 
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But we also agree that this team sucks at bringing the guy in from 3rd with one out, don't we?

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:45 pm 
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Lost in that discussion is the recent trend of Josh Harrison coming through huge as a pinch hit option.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:46 pm 
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Two more wins against the Cardinals are worth another half-game in the standings. That's the shame in not winning one more in St. Louis. Had they done so, they would have all but assured themselves of winning the yearly series and having the equivalent of a 4.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:49 pm 
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Bucs are slumping right now. Teams go through this. Good teams, division leaders, playoff contenders find a way to get through it. We'll fine out soon enough what they're made of. In the meantime everyone enjoy their evening. See you fellow bucco fans here tomorrow to see if the club can raise it.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:50 pm 
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Clevelandsux wrote:
Bryan Morris in, we lose. Never fails. Mr.consistency. I still pin this loss on Aj.


I have to tip my hat to Matt Holliday there. He laid off an absolute perfecta of a 2-2 pitch to get the fastball that he wanted. That's a professional hitter, there.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:58 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Its about winning today. Not about accumulating the most number of runs at the end of the year. Its not Rotisserie Baseball.

Even Tom Tango wouldn't agree with you here.

This assumes that there a likelihood that a Marte out will advance Harrison. Given that his strength is pulling the ball and the frequency of his strike outs, I don't buy the assumption.


If it's about winning today, then why in the Sam hell was Hurdle playing solely for the tie there?! This wasn't a tie game. This was a situation where he literally wasted an AB by one of his best hitters for a net zero effect.

As somebody who I know loves the old-schooledness (yes, made that up) of the game, you have to agree that your 1-3 hitters have, by far, the best chance of getting a base hit. In that situation, a base hit scores a run. A base hit also gives you a baserunner. Why would you give the opponent an extra out to work with if you don't have to?

There was no reason to give away an out with your 1-3 up, no double play possibility, and a single the only thing needed. I don't care what Marte does with his AB, worst case scenario it still takes a single to score Harrison.

The bunt-sac fly combination isn't nearly as "safe" as it's perceived and the strategy of giving away outs when you have your top of the order up doesn't amount to anything positive.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:04 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
But we also agree that this team sucks at bringing the guy in from 3rd with one out, don't we?


Team as a whole has not been good for the entire year. But "as a whole" and "entire year" don't necessarily apply to an August game with Neal Walker at the plate - he's been hitting the ball well and making good contact recently. I give that far more consideration to any average for the team as a whole.

Using your reasoning though . . . have they been good at scoring runners from second with no outs?

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:06 pm 
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I would like to see less of Morris in close-game situations.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:07 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
But we also agree that this team sucks at bringing the guy in from 3rd with one out, don't we?


Team as a whole has not been good for the entire year. But "as a whole" and "entire year" don't necessarily apply to an August game with Neal Walker at the plate - he's been hitting the ball well and making good contact recently. I give that far more consideration to any average for the team as a whole.

Using your reasoning though . . . have they been good at scoring runners from second with no outs?



I'm using your reasoning. And I don't know. Have they? I'm sure I could look it up somewhere.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:09 pm 
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RTJR wrote:
I would like to see less of Morris in close-game situations.


Relatedly, I'd like to see Melancon in less "we have a 3 run lead in the 9th and the 6-7-8 guys up" situations.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:09 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
If Marte catches that ball, we're talking about how the Bucs righted the ship.

And if grandpa had tits, he'd be grandma.

That horrific loss also featured another in the seemingly never-ending series of "0's" for the offense when the team gets to extra innings.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:11 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
If Marte catches that ball, we're talking about how the Bucs righted the ship.

And if grandpa had tits, he'd be grandma.

That horrific loss also featured another in the seemingly never-ending series of "0's" for the offense when the team gets to extra innings.


If it's purely result oriented, then the Bucs are 71-49 and so I don't see what the big deal is.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:32 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
If it's about winning today, then why in the Sam hell was Hurdle playing solely for the tie there?! This wasn't a tie game. This was a situation where he literally wasted an AB by one of his best hitters for a net zero effect.


Strawman alert.
He isn't "playing for a tie." That strategy is designed to try to maximize the chances of scoring at least one run. That isn't "playing for the tie" any more than not bunting is "playing for a win."
But . . . I can play that game as well. By not bunting Walker in the first inning, Hurdle "wasted an AB by one of his best hitters" and put McCutchen in a position where he had to get a hit to drive in Walker as opposed to a mere fly ball. Possibility of scoring at least one run after Walker's AB in the first inning went down because Hurdle chose to "play for the big inning."

StarlingArcher wrote:
As somebody who I know loves the old-schooledness (yes, made that up) of the game, you have to agree that your 1-3 hitters have, by far, the best chance of getting a base hit. In that situation, a base hit scores a run. A base hit also gives you a baserunner. Why would you give the opponent an extra out to work with if you don't have to?


Easy. Because Neal Walker has been among the best on the team in driving in a runner from third and less than one out. Because Marte is a strike out machine. Because Marte is hardly ever put in a position where he should be looking to hit behind a runner. Because Marte likes to pull the ball. Because the odds are that Marte will (a) make an out and (b) Harrison will still be at second base and then (c) Walker can't drive in a run with a fly ball.

The analysis is only about the results of Marte's plate appearance. What makes you so confident that the run scoring environment after his AB is as good as or better than if he sacrifice's Walker to third base? Would you put the odds at greater than 50% that the end result is better than or equal to Harrison at 3B with one out? Marte K's in nearly 25% of his ABs. He gets a hit in about 27% of his ABs (likely trending lower than that). In the other 48% of his ABs where he makes an out . . . what are odds that Harrison advances? Maness on the mound? That's the analysis.

StarlingArcher wrote:
The bunt-sac fly combination isn't nearly as "safe" as it's perceived and the strategy of giving away outs when you have your top of the order up doesn't amount to anything positive.


And scoring a run from second base with no outs isn't safe either. That's entirely the point.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:34 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
I'm using your reasoning. And I don't know. Have they? I'm sure I could look it up somewhere.


Walker has been successful at driving in that run 50% of the time this year - way ahead of the team average and better than McCutchen.

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