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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:

Strawman alert.
He isn't "playing for a tie." That strategy is designed to try to maximize the chances of scoring at least one run. That isn't "playing for the tie" any more than not bunting is "playing for a win."
But . . . I can play that game as well. By not bunting Walker in the first inning, Hurdle "wasted an AB by one of his best hitters" and put McCutchen in a position where he had to get a hit to drive in Walker as opposed to a mere fly ball. Possibility of scoring at least one run after Walker's AB in the first inning went down because Hurdle chose to "play for the big inning."

Easy. Because Neal Walker has been among the best on the team in driving in a runner from third and less than one out. Because Marte is a strike out machine. Because Marte is hardly ever put in a position where he should be looking to hit behind a runner. Because Marte likes to pull the ball. Because the odds are that Marte will (a) make an out and (b) Harrison will still be at second base and then (c) Walker can't drive in a run with a fly ball.

The analysis is only about the results of Marte's plate appearance. What makes you so confident that the run scoring environment after his AB is as good as or better than if he sacrifice's Walker to third base? Would you put the odds at greater than 50% that the end result is better than or equal to Harrison at 3B with one out? Marte K's in nearly 25% of his ABs. He gets a hit in about 27% of his ABs (likely trending lower than that). In the other 48% of his ABs where he makes an out . . . what are odds that Harrison advances? Maness on the mound? That's the analysis.

And scoring a run from second base with no outs isn't safe either. That's entirely the point.


This isn't even worth it at this point. There's no evidence that says bunting your 1 hitter with no outs and a man on 2nd maximizes your chances of scoring the most runs possible. Everything says the exact opposite. If the bunt is that precious, have at it. I don't care, but I also won't pull punches with the rest of the people who were blasting Hurdle all over Twitter for it.

If neither is safe, you go for what maximizes runs. That's hitting away, not bunting. Sorry.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:11 pm 
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Did anyone notice how pretty Lambo's stroke was on that double?

Good looking swing. Very fluid.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:29 pm 
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VanSlick wrote:
Did anyone notice how pretty Lambo's stroke was on that double?

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:12 pm 
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Didn't realize hurdle only had one winning season. That of course being the year the Rockies went to the world series.

He was fired in 2009 after a 18-28 start, and was replaced ironically by Jim Tracy. Then therockies finished 92-70 and made the playoffs.

Hurdle was the first manager never to be fired after 5 straight losing seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:35 am 
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He was more than likely hired for his generally positive motivational attitude. Good thing to have for a club as young as the one he was given the reigns to. Now that the team has a core in their prime and a healthy mix of veteran leadership and youth, that aspect of Hurdle isn't really such a vital thing, and it opens the door to actually analyzing his game management abilities. Though some of his decisions make a few of us want to pull our hair out, they've been good enough for 71-49 midway through August.

Some will say that's all Huntington giving him the pieces to succeed. I'd say, well then, it's not like he's f@#$ing it up.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:52 am 
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VanSlick wrote:
Did anyone notice how pretty Lambo's stroke was on that double?

Good looking swing. Very fluid.


His swing reminds me of Brandon Wood. I don't mean that in a bad way, Wood had one of the most pure swings I've ever seen. I'm still baffled he fizzled so horribly in the Majors.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:28 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
This isn't even worth it at this point. There's no evidence that says bunting your 1 hitter with no outs and a man on 2nd maximizes your chances of scoring the most runs possible. Everything says the exact opposite. If the bunt is that precious, have at it. I don't care, but I also won't pull punches with the rest of the people who were blasting Hurdle all over Twitter for it.

If neither is safe, you go for what maximizes runs. That's hitting away, not bunting. Sorry.


You once again are reshaping the issue in an effort to justify your point.

You think it's more important to maximize chances for a two, three, four or five run inning there and conclude that there is "no reason" to do anything contrary. I'm pointing out that there are reasons (plenty of them) when may want to increase the chances of at least tying the game and minimize chances of a zero run inning.

I can play the "you can't point to evidence" game as well. You can't point to any evidence that the Pirates were just as likely to score one run, let alone many runs, if Marte didn't bunt versus if he did bunt. The only "evidence" (and it is not team specific) is RE tables and even Tango's calculations show that the chances of scoring one run increase when there is a runner at third with one out over a runner at second with no outs.

And, FWIW, I don't envision a day when my opinions are shaped by what others express on Twitter.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:57 am 
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I wasn't a huge fan of the bunt, but if you are going for one run, the run expectancy charts do indeed say that you have a 4% better chance of getting that run in after the bunt. So I'm not going to slam Hurdle for it.

http://tangotiger.net/re24.html

Whatevs, that's in the past, and it's going to happen again so if you hate the bunts you'll just have to get used to them. Also, I feel ok using "if" statements to describe this past series because the if in question was such a big if that I'm thinking, with modern technology, your grandpa could surgically get tits if he wanted to and still be your grandpa.

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 4:54 pm 
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I think Tango has done a ton to revolutionize how things are looked at or broken down, but I think those tables are a bit antiquated now with the ability to break down hitting abilities and show varying situations (for instance, they've advanced it to the point where a runner on 2nd with no outs has a different run expectancy in Coors Field than Petco Park nowadays). Those tables reflect an average hitter at the plate. So for the Pirates, a guy like Mercer, whose wRC+ is dead league average. They undervalue a bunt with a pitcher (usually a positive, depending on the pitcher....with us it's typically a good play) and overvalue the bunt by one of your better players.

I mean, if Cutch gets a lead off double down 1 late in the game, do we want Pedro bunting? It varies by hitter, and giving away an out with one of your best hitters, and probably the biggest playmaker you have on the bases, just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. We weren't bunting over Tony Sanchez, who might not score on a hit, and we weren't bunting an average hitter. We bunted a guy who turns pretty much any non-out outcome into a double (at minimum).

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 Post subject: Re: August 15, 2013 Pirates (71-48) at Cardinals (68-51)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:40 pm 
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Most definitely every situation varies. For example, Harrison was at second and marte squared early. The third baseman was playing in which makes it hard to bunt for a base hit. With Marte's speed he should be doing just that, bunting for a hit. If the third baseman is in swing away. Don't bunt Harrison over when he already has the wheels to score from second anyways. Best, worst case scenario, Marte singles and Harrison is stopped at third. Still have shop set up. Feel me? If marte has an unproductive at bat you still have Walker and Cutch up with a RISP.


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