Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:13 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:28 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3227
Location: Economy, PA
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:43 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:26 pm
Posts: 3006
Ralphie wrote:
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Someone is going to have to explain to me why strikeouts need adjusted for ballpark.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:46 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 6:46 am
Posts: 186
^I second that.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:35 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 4906
BBF wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Someone is going to have to explain to me why strikeouts need adjusted for ballpark.


The Braves 'tomahawk chop' clearly adds 2 K's/9 IP.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:44 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:11 pm
Posts: 4990
Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
BBF wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Someone is going to have to explain to me why strikeouts need adjusted for ballpark.


I sense that Ralphie was being facetious.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:52 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 1:07 pm
Posts: 2128
BBF wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Someone is going to have to explain to me why strikeouts need adjusted for ballpark.


Maybe the amount of foul territory is a factor.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:47 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:27 pm
Posts: 356
Location: Morgantown, WV, via Charleston, WV
Maybe the smoke from Manny's BBQ coming over the big green batter's eye?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:50 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1845
Location: Tejas
Really don't see the K's as an issue. They're pretty much doing what you'd want (avoiding the GIDP) and are pretty much rid of most of the issues. Sort of why I was hesitant to add Lambo in. Snider killed us with his K's and didn't compensate with XBH or OBP, which is what he'd need to do to have value. Lambo profiled as similar.

Walker coming back and Jose replacing Snider have pretty much made them a non-issue. Cutch, Walker, and Tabata are all at 16% or lower with BB rates near 10% (Walker is lowest at 9.4%). That's solid plate discipline coming in once they got healthy. Nobody is really a black hole with them anymore, although Jones has been flirting with it.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:12 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3227
Location: Economy, PA
How could you not see K's as an issue? The objective is to hit the ball, or at least draw a walk. Not to record an out and walk back to the dugout.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 1:37 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1845
Location: Tejas
Because they don't really have a high K rate up and down the lineup. And guys like Alvarez and Marte are guys who you're fine with taking a high K rate because they bring XBH. The object of the game is to advance yourself and those in front of you as many bases as possible without getting out.

A guy who has a .400 OBP and .500 SLG and 50% K rate does me significantly more good than a bat handling slap hitter like Ben Revere who has a .340 OBP and .350 SLG with a 10% K rate.

Snider wasn't a black hole because he struck out. He was a black hole because he didn't get on base or hit for power.

The worst thing a hitter can do is GIDP. That's the only out that is significantly more detrimental than any other.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:16 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1845
Location: Tejas
FWIW, our typical lineup with K% and BB%:

Marte 23.5%/4.9%
Walker 16.0%/9.4%
Cutch 15.6%/9.9%
Alvarez 32.1%/7.9%
Martin 20.2%/11.4% (went up after the extra inning game, regardless, 11.4% BB rate is outstanding)
Jones 22.0%/7.2% (like I said, he's a borderline black hole, but not to Snider level)
Tabata 14.0%/9.5%
Mercer 16.5%/6.4%
Pitcher 42.3%/2.3%

Pedro, Marte, and the pitchers are the only guys above our season average of 22.3%. If the pitchers are taken out, Jones is added in as being above our 21.5%.

Additionally, the league average is a 21.1% K rate and 7.9% BB rate. So we have 3 guys below average in K% and 4 above average in BB% with Alvarez a "push".

Other notable players:

Gaby Sanchez 17.5%/14.4%
Travis Snider 26.8%/8.7%
Brandon Inge 29.1%/1.8%
Clint Barmes 22.8%/4.7% (shockingly, it's gone down like 3% recently)

So yeah, the everyday lineup with Walker and Tabata in there isn't too brutal K wise.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Last edited by StarlingArcher on Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:18 pm 
Online
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4449
Location: Washington, DC
StarlingArcher wrote:
Really don't see the K's as an issue. They're pretty much doing what you'd want (avoiding the GIDP) and are pretty much rid of most of the issues. Sort of why I was hesitant to add Lambo in. Snider killed us with his K's and didn't compensate with XBH or OBP, which is what he'd need to do to have value. Lambo profiled as similar.

Walker coming back and Jose replacing Snider have pretty much made them a non-issue. Cutch, Walker, and Tabata are all at 16% or lower with BB rates near 10% (Walker is lowest at 9.4%). That's solid plate discipline coming in once they got healthy. Nobody is really a black hole with them anymore, although Jones has been flirting with it.


This idea that a league-average offense (outside of the pitchers) is sufficient ignores the fact that the Pirates are attempting to compete with, and beat, teams with far better offenses. They'll be going against teams with superior lineups in the playoffs and playing at a disadvantage.

The Pirates aren't trying to be just a decent team anymore. They're trying to win a championship. The pitching is likely to regress a bit given the FIP and xFIP numbers and due to guys throwing a lot of innings. So the offense has to pick up the slack. At this point in the season, even marginal upgrades could make a big difference because ONE MORE WIN could mean securing the division, hosting the wild card game, or missing the playoffs entirely.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 2:21 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1845
Location: Tejas
We'll never compete with AL teams. Even the mighty Cardinals drop down to 6th in baseball once pitchers are added in. They're 4th in the NL, that's certainly more than "decent".

And, if you look at the K% and BB% numbers I posted, it's really an overblown issue contributed to primarily by guys who are gone or guys who are among the better players at their respective positions (Marte and Alvarez).

I mean, seriously, look at the teams behind us in the NL. Padres, D'backs, Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Rockies....we aren't looking at a bunch of world beaters around baseball. It's not the steroid era.

Even the Reds, who are behind us, have some massive holes. LF is a huge issue, SS is an issue (Cozart fields well, but we're talking offense), C is an issue, 3B is an issue, Phillips isn't hitting that well. This whole "we need to be #1 or #2 for it to be a good offense" is entirely unrealistic.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:39 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:46 am
Posts: 3227
Location: Economy, PA
The Reds do not have a good offense. Our numbers would be so much better in their ballpark.

Still, we're 4th in the majors in strikeouts. The fact that we have some guys who don't strike out a lot, and some other guys who contribute offensively despite a high number of strikeouts, does not change the fact that, as a team, we have struck out a lot.

5 k's today through 3 innings. Not a bit out of character.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:41 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1845
Location: Tejas
Ralphie wrote:
The Reds do not have a good offense. Our numbers would be so much better in their ballpark.

Still, we're 4th in the majors in strikeouts. The fact that we have some guys who don't strike out a lot, and some other guys who contribute offensively despite a high number of strikeouts, does not change the fact that, as a team, we have struck out a lot.

5 k's today through 3 innings. Not a bit out of character.


Right but it's the usual suspects (Marte, Alvarez, Jones, pitcher spot) and then a guy who only K's 15.6% of the time in Cutch.

Don't see the issue. And again, we're using numbers that include guys who don't even play here anymore. That does absolutely zero good in telling you anything about this offense or this team.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:44 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:01 pm
Posts: 5832
Location: Slickville, PA
BBF wrote:
Ralphie wrote:
After watching our guys strike out over and over last night, I decided to see where we stand in that category compared to the rest of the league.

We are tied for 4th in the majors, striking out at a ratio of 1 for every 4 at bats as a team. Interstingly Atlanta is one of the teams worse than us.

However, adjusted for ballpark, we are actually above average.


Someone is going to have to explain to me why strikeouts need adjusted for ballpark.



I have to admit that, as an old-timer, who has been following the Pirates since the 60's.... some of these new-fangled stats confuse me. But I can understand the concept of OPS and WAR and so-forth...but strikeouts adjusted for ballpark?? That was going to be my exact question when I read it.

_________________
"Live proud! Laugh Loud! Standout in a Crowd!"


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:32 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10233
PNC has a lot of those giant moths and mosquitoes, forcing batters to hack at them in self-defense.

Image

Hence, the park increases the K ratio. Simple, really.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:12 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
Ralphie wrote:
The Reds do not have a good offense. Our numbers would be so much better in their ballpark.

Still, we're 4th in the majors in strikeouts. The fact that we have some guys who don't strike out a lot, and some other guys who contribute offensively despite a high number of strikeouts, does not change the fact that, as a team, we have struck out a lot.

5 k's today through 3 innings. Not a bit out of character.

And yet, the Pirates still have a league average offense. The K rate of our batters is not holding us back. If anything, it is our lack of power and our inability to draw walks.

Someone upthread mentioned it earlier, but look at the Atlanta Braves. They have the most strikeouts in the NL, and yet are 2nd in the league in runs per game. Clearly K rate is not worth worrying about.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:20 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 1884
Location: Naples, FL
I think everybody realizes strikeouts are bad and not good. Like, hitting the ball is better than not hitting it.

Outs are also not good. The objective of the game is to not be out. I keep telling you guys, good things happen when the Pirates don't get out. It's like nobody believes me.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Strikeouts
PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:41 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 2809
Willton wrote:
If anything, it is our lack of power and our inability to draw walks.


It's probably more of a reflection of the quality of the rest of the league but they are above average power-wise, sixth in the NL. They actually finished fourth last year due to McCutchen's 30+ HR year, Alvarez's breakout power and Jones's career year. Walker had his career best as well. Also the crazy number of HRs per AB McKenry put up.

The biggest culprit for the power being down this year is undoubtedly the rapid regression of Garrett Jones, to me. When he finally has a quality platoon partner and gets to face RHP near-exclusively, you anticipate a lock for 25-30 HRs, the fact that he is on pace for 15 or so is a drastic disappointment. You can point to McCutchen's power as well, but I always predicted last year would be a career outlier. Alvarez is the only one who will improve on last year's numbers, and the only one that was even close to doing so.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], J_C_Steel and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits