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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:17 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional.


One may not agree or care for his baseball decisions, but was Bowden not a GM? It would seem to qualify him as a baseball professional despite what he is doing for a living right now......JMHO.... 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:18 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Looks like I'm not the only guy who thinks Abreu makes sense for the Pirates...

From Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects: "Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu is the Perfect Pirates Off-Season Target."

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08 ... arget.html

He makes the same points I do -- who's going to play 1B for the Pirates over the next couple of years? And where will the Pirates find more right-handed power?

The Pirates already have right handed power at first base. They have it in center field as well. The have a few other guys who are probably good for around 15 HRs each from the right side next year.

Who is going to platoon at first with Sanchez for the next year or two? Beats me. At this time last year, how many people were predicting that Russell Martin would be catching for the Pirates this year?


The right-handed power the Pirates have at 1B doesn't hit RHP with that power. And RHP make up about 75% or more of the starters the team will face in a year.

Also, check out the free agents at 1B for 2014. It ain't a pretty list. Abreu's much younger and has far more upside than any of them. Read the Pirates Prospects piece -- it explains why Abreu fills a need and why he's worth the risk.


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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:46 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional. How many games do you think he's seen this guy play?


Really, that was a different Jim Bowden who as GM of the Reds?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:23 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
I feel like the risk is minimal. The guy's going to hit for power, it's just a question of how much.

It's a small fortune over many years. The risk is freaking HUGE. Failure to produce, or even just an unlucky injury could cripple the Pirates financially.

Contrary to what seems to be popular opinion nowadays, you don't need to have the very best player at every position to win ballgames.


The idea that one contract for around $60M over 4-6 years would "cripple" or "bankrupt" the Pirates is absurd. First, the Pirates are set to draw about 2.25 million fans this season, with potential home playoff games as well. Next year, they project to break the attendance record and draw 2.5 million or more. Second, the Pirates would be likely to spend between $9M and $10.5M on their current Garrett/Gaby 1B platoon. Non-tendering those guys and bringing in a replacement that costs about the same on a per-year basis isn't a HUGE risk. Third, the Pirates have very little money tied up in long-term deals, so they have the flexibility to go after this guy. Fourth, all MLB teams are about to receive a small fortune of cash due to the new national TV deal (the revenue for which is shared by all clubs).

Read the Tim Williams piece: he's very smart, he knows baseball, he explains why the Pirates can afford Abreu, and he notes why Abreu should be the Pirates' top off-season target.

The Pirates already have low payrolls annually. Kicking in $10M a year for a productive player won't kill them. Pissing it away on an unknown who may or may not work out will.

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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:25 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
From ESPN (Jim Bowden):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms ... st?id=7439

It's paid content, so I can't cut-and-paste it here, but these are the scouts' aggregate grades for Jose Abreu:

Hit: 70
Power: 70
Glove: 50
Run: 40
Arm: 50

Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional. How many games do you think he's seen this guy play?


I'm disappointed in your reading comprehension skills, my friend. Those aren't Bowden's grades at all, they are the aggregate grades of scouts who have seen Abreu and spoke with Bowden about them.

I'm skeptical of those grades, but the power is there and the hit tool should be at least above average, which makes Abreu a perfect fit for the Pirates. Again, read the Williams piece on Pirates Prospects.

They are the average of what a talking head CLAIMS scouts have told him. Without any attribution, they are Bowden's numbers.

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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:29 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional.


One may not agree or care for his baseball decisions, but was Bowden not a GM? It would seem to qualify him as a baseball professional despite what he is doing for a living right now......JMHO.... 8-) 8-)

He doesn't have access to all of the information that he was provided with back when he was a GM. He has to rely on what others are telling him, and isn't their boss any more. There are plenty of reasons for baseball people to feed Bowden misinformation, and reasons that Bowden could be just inventing information. This report doesn't hold any more water than any other rumored information I see every day.

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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 3:38 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Looks like I'm not the only guy who thinks Abreu makes sense for the Pirates...

From Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects: "Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu is the Perfect Pirates Off-Season Target."

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08 ... arget.html

He makes the same points I do -- who's going to play 1B for the Pirates over the next couple of years? And where will the Pirates find more right-handed power?

The Pirates already have right handed power at first base. They have it in center field as well. The have a few other guys who are probably good for around 15 HRs each from the right side next year.

Who is going to platoon at first with Sanchez for the next year or two? Beats me. At this time last year, how many people were predicting that Russell Martin would be catching for the Pirates this year?


The right-handed power the Pirates have at 1B doesn't hit RHP with that power. And RHP make up about 75% or more of the starters the team will face in a year.

No kidding. Feel free to point out where I said that he could.

It's SO much easier when you make up the other guys argument for him, isn't it?

Quote:
Also, check out the free agents at 1B for 2014. It ain't a pretty list. Abreu's much younger and has far more upside than any of them. Read the Pirates Prospects piece -- it explains why Abreu fills a need and why he's worth the risk.


The Pirates don't need a free agent first baseman. They need a guy who can hit right handed pitching. It doesn't matter what position he plays right now, and it doesn't matter if how they acquire him. Perhaps they'll find another Garrett Jones languishing at AAA for some other club and pick him up through Rule 6 or a cheap trade. Maybe they'll acquire an outfielder or third baseman and move him to first. They don't need to get a superstar every day first baseman, and there is no guarantee that any Cuban defector is any such thing. They need a first baseman who can platoon against righties without totally sucking.

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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:54 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
No kidding. Feel free to point out where I said that he could.

It's SO much easier when you make up the other guys argument for him, isn't it?


You cited Gaby Sanchez as right-handed power. You didn't note that his power does not play well against 75% or more of the starting pitchers the Pirates face. You left it to me to point out that detail. Don't complain about that.

sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates don't need a free agent first baseman. They need a guy who can hit right handed pitching. It doesn't matter what position he plays right now, and it doesn't matter if how they acquire him. Perhaps they'll find another Garrett Jones languishing at AAA for some other club and pick him up through Rule 6 or a cheap trade. Maybe they'll acquire an outfielder or third baseman and move him to first. They don't need to get a superstar every day first baseman, and there is no guarantee that any Cuban defector is any such thing. They need a first baseman who can platoon against righties without totally sucking.


So your view of how the Pirates should handle first base is to fill the position internally or hope that lightning strikes twice and they find a cheap Garret Jones-like option to hit right-handers? That's a great plan, sisyphus. Top notch.

Further, I never said they need a "superstar every day first baseman." To quote you: It's SO much easier when you make up the other guys argument for him, isn't it?

Jose Dariel Abreu is simply a great option for the team because he won't cost huge free agent dollars and he represents the kind of risk a small market team can afford to take on a player who has the potential to put up big numbers. That's why Oakland signed Cespedes for $36 million. And, contrary to your belief, the Pirates absolutely can afford Abreu, as noted by Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects:

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08 ... arget.html

The Pirates can definitely afford Abreu. Their guaranteed payroll the next four years is $25.25 M, $14 M, $17.5 M, and $14.25 M. That doesn’t include arbitration numbers for guys like Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, and guys who will be arbitration eligible at the tail end of that span like Jeff Locke and Starling Marte. You also have to figure that the Pirates will need to replace some of the current guys like A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and others who could leave via free agency. Some of those players might return, and some spots might be filled internally.

The Pirates do have a lot of young players, with a lot of cost-controlled contracts over the next four years. From 2014-2017, the following players have just 1-2 years of arbitration, or less.

Vic Black
Gerrit Cole
Brandon Cumpton
Andrew Lambo
Jeff Locke
Starling Marte
Jordy Mercer
Bryan Morris
Stolmy Pimentel
Tony Sanchez
Duke Welker
Justin Wilson

That list doesn’t include prospects who could come up in that span, which is a list that includes Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, Tyler Glasnow, Alen Hanson, and pretty much any other prospect in the top three levels right now.

Not all of the above players will be impact players, but a lot of the above players will be Major League quality players who can keep costs down. That will give the Pirates some flexibility to add payroll. When you also include the extra $20-25 M that each team will get starting next season for the National TV deals, the Pirates would have even more money.


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 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:56 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates already have low payrolls annually. Kicking in $10M a year for a productive player won't kill them. Pissing it away on an unknown who may or may not work out will.


The Tim Williams piece uses actual numbers and, you know, FACTS, to explain why the Pirates can afford Abreu. Your claim that signing the kid for $10 million per annum will "kill" the Pirates if he's not productive is supported by... oh yeah... nothing.

I'll stick with the facts and Tim Williams, thanks.


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