Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:47 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 89 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 1:48 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
Looks like I'm not the only guy who thinks Abreu makes sense for the Pirates...

From Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects: "Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu is the Perfect Pirates Off-Season Target."

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08 ... arget.html

He makes the same points I do -- who's going to play 1B for the Pirates over the next couple of years? And where will the Pirates find more right-handed power?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:29 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
NSMaster56 wrote:
As with nearly every possible transaction there is certainly risk involved.

However, with the market for available players being what it is, the Bucs clearly needing a player like Abreu and also facing a tighter salary pool compared to others, what do you guys think a fair (or ideal) offer for Abreu would be (and for how long)?


People are avoiding answering this question. Tim Williams believes a longer deal with more control (a la Puig) would be better than a shorter deal with less control (a la Cespedes). I think 6 years and $60 million would be fair, particularly given that the current Pirates' first base platoon of Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez would be slated to make around $10 million next season through arbitration. With no internal prospect options waiting in the wings to take up first base in 2014 or likely even 2015, the Pirates need to fill this position from the outside. That'll cost money no matter who it is. And I'd rather sign a 26-year-old Cuban defector who swings a heavy bat than any of the free agent options, all of which are older.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:33 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:27 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2109
Location: Naples, FL
Cubans are no longer a market inefficiency. I think this guy gets a contract bigger than most people seem to believe he'll receive.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Cubans are no longer a market inefficiency. I think this guy gets a contract bigger than most people seem to believe he'll receive.


It'll be north of Cespedes and Puig, but I don't think it goes beyond 6 years and $70 million. And if the Pirates non-tender Jones and Sanchez, that's only slightly more (on a per-year basis) that the team was going to pay for its first basemen in 2014. With attendance increasing and not a lot of contracts on the books, the Pirates can afford him.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:48 pm 
Online
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2244
Location: Tejas
You can't really say what's "fair" without knowing where the Pirates fall. Like Williams said, right now it's the assumption that everything will be roses with him but teams can't operate like that.

If we're guessing that he'll be Ryan Howard in his prime for 4 years (which I doubt, but just to humor people) and then will still be useful for 2 years (as Howard was), you're looking at ~50M over 4 years or ~57M over 6. Keep in mind he's also going to be older than Howard was when he started his monster years.

Howard's WAR in his prime: 5.8, 3.2, 2.7, 4.4. Then in the 2 years after he was 1.0 and 1.6. The fewest amount of games he played in any of those seasons was 143 so it's not like he's getting punished for injury issues. The fewest amount of HR he hit in any of those years was 31. His lowest OBP was .339 (he hit 48 HR).

If the Pirates don't think he hits that, then fair value goes down. If they think he does, that's fair value. By all accounts, his defense won't add any value and if an AL team gets him he's likely just a career DH, so I wouldn't say he has any sort of advantage over Howard there for an NL team.

He needs to hit like Howard to equal Howard's value. This isn't like SS or an OF position where a great glove and/or a ton of SB can compensate for a weak bat. Abreu's value, like Howard's will come solely from the bat.

Ryan Howard Stats:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2154&position=1B

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
Ryan Howard put up those WAR numbers in years of inflated offense, so it's not an apples to apples comparison in terms of expected offensive performance. As you note earlier in this thread and in others, it's a down time at first base, so Jose Abreu can put up big WAR numbers at the position without having to equal what Howard did.

Did you read Tim Williams' piece? Who would you put at first base for the Pirates in 2014?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:38 pm 
Online
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2244
Location: Tejas
Nah, a replacement player is still a replacement player. That doesn't really change a whole lot, they use so much historical data to define a replacement player that fluctuations don't have an impact. You're looking more at 1B who aren't putting up huge numbers, and therefore aren't worth paying, more than guys who aren't putting up huge numbers but are still equally valuable because it's a down trend. It's just a position that isn't worth a whole lot right now.

And I have no idea who I'd put at 1B. I don't know why these questions get thrown out like it's somehow worth it to overpay for a guy because he's the biggest name at a need position.

If the Pirates believe in him, I would absolutely sign him for the right price. But, if he gets too expensive I think the money would be better spent on other guys at more important positions. We're already going in at a disadvantage because AL teams value him more than NL teams do, to say nothing of our inability to get beyond 85M or so in payroll in our peak years (under the current system, obviously with the increase in TV revenue it'll ramp up but everybody is getting the same bump so we have no competitive advantage from it).

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 11:26 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
I think Tim Williams and James Santelli have it right -- Abreu should be the Pirates' top target this off-season.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:45 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2109
Location: Naples, FL
I'll bet he gets at least $15 mil per year and a contract at least 5 years in length.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:49 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2109
Location: Naples, FL
I might consider overpaying to keep the contract length to four years.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:11 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:27 pm
Posts: 1957
Give him the 5-year. Trade him after 3-3.5 to someone who needs a hitter for a boatload of prospects. With Neal doing the assessing, it would likely be good prospects.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2109
Location: Naples, FL
RTJR wrote:
Give him the 5-year. Trade him after 3-3.5 to someone who needs a hitter for a boatload of prospects. With Neal doing the assessing, it would likely be good prospects.


Assuming he's good. If it's a bad contract, then no one's going to want it. The length of the contract is only a problem if he's not good.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:38 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
The Pirates lack a quality first baseman. The Pirates lack right-handed power. The Pirates lack players with a very high "hit" tool.

This guy fits all three criteria and comes with some, but not a lot, of risk. Like Beane with Cespedes, this is the kind of risk a team like the Pirates should take given that the big-time free agent first basemen will forever be out of their price range.

The Pirates have a right handed first baseman who is currently slugging .554 against lefties. What they need is a replacement for Jones, not Sanchez.


You don't need to have a platoon, my friend. Abreu is a righty hitter who can mash against all pitchers. The Pirates don't have a right-handed hitter like that.

Think they might be able to find a lefty half of a platoon at first who might not bankrupt the club?

I do.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:45 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
I feel like the risk is minimal. The guy's going to hit for power, it's just a question of how much.

It's a small fortune over many years. The risk is freaking HUGE. Failure to produce, or even just an unlucky injury could cripple the Pirates financially.

Contrary to what seems to be popular opinion nowadays, you don't need to have the very best player at every position to win ballgames.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:46 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
Willton wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
I feel like the risk is minimal. The guy's going to hit for power, it's just a question of how much.

You appear to have much more confidence than the professionals do. I'm curious as to why.


I do?

From ESPN (Jim Bowden):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms ... st?id=7439

It's paid content, so I can't cut-and-paste it here, but these are the scouts' aggregate grades for Jose Abreu:

Hit: 70
Power: 70
Glove: 50
Run: 40
Arm: 50

Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional. How many games do you think he's seen this guy play?

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:52 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
Looks like I'm not the only guy who thinks Abreu makes sense for the Pirates...

From Tim Williams at Pirates Prospects: "Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu is the Perfect Pirates Off-Season Target."

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/08 ... arget.html

He makes the same points I do -- who's going to play 1B for the Pirates over the next couple of years? And where will the Pirates find more right-handed power?

The Pirates already have right handed power at first base. They have it in center field as well. The have a few other guys who are probably good for around 15 HRs each from the right side next year.

Who is going to platoon at first with Sanchez for the next year or two? Beats me. At this time last year, how many people were predicting that Russell Martin would be catching for the Pirates this year?

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2013 1:56 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
Ryan Howard put up those WAR numbers in years of inflated offense, so it's not an apples to apples comparison in terms of expected offensive performance. As you note earlier in this thread and in others, it's a down time at first base, so Jose Abreu can put up big WAR numbers at the position without having to equal what Howard did.

Did you read Tim Williams' piece? Who would you put at first base for the Pirates in 2014?

The value of a run goes down in seasons with inflated offense, as I'm sure you already know, and goes up in years when offense is down. That is why you can compare players hitting WARP across eras with some degree of reliability.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:11 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
I feel like the risk is minimal. The guy's going to hit for power, it's just a question of how much.

It's a small fortune over many years. The risk is freaking HUGE. Failure to produce, or even just an unlucky injury could cripple the Pirates financially.

Contrary to what seems to be popular opinion nowadays, you don't need to have the very best player at every position to win ballgames.


The idea that one contract for around $60M over 4-6 years would "cripple" or "bankrupt" the Pirates is absurd. First, the Pirates are set to draw about 2.25 million fans this season, with potential home playoff games as well. Next year, they project to break the attendance record and draw 2.5 million or more. Second, the Pirates would be likely to spend between $9M and $10.5M on their current Garrett/Gaby 1B platoon. Non-tendering those guys and bringing in a replacement that costs about the same on a per-year basis isn't a HUGE risk. Third, the Pirates have very little money tied up in long-term deals, so they have the flexibility to go after this guy. Fourth, all MLB teams are about to receive a small fortune of cash due to the new national TV deal (the revenue for which is shared by all clubs).

Read the Tim Williams piece: he's very smart, he knows baseball, he explains why the Pirates can afford Abreu, and he notes why Abreu should be the Pirates' top off-season target.


Last edited by J_C_Steel on Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Cuban First Baseman?
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 2:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4814
Location: Washington, DC
sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
From ESPN (Jim Bowden):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms ... st?id=7439

It's paid content, so I can't cut-and-paste it here, but these are the scouts' aggregate grades for Jose Abreu:

Hit: 70
Power: 70
Glove: 50
Run: 40
Arm: 50

Jim Bowden is a talking head, not a baseball professional. How many games do you think he's seen this guy play?


I'm disappointed in your reading comprehension skills, my friend. Those aren't Bowden's grades at all, they are the aggregate grades of scouts who have seen Abreu and spoke with Bowden about them.

I'm skeptical of those grades, but the power is there and the hit tool should be at least above average, which makes Abreu a perfect fit for the Pirates. Again, read the Williams piece on Pirates Prospects.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 89 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], StarlingArcher, VanSlick and 8 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits