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 Post subject: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 1:36 pm 
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I've written before that - from a historical standpoint - 90 wins would all but guarantee a playoff spot under the current format. I'm confident that we can exclude the Giants, Cubs, Mets, Padres, Brewers and Marlins as being capable of hitting the 90 win mark. That leaves us with 9 NL teams that are still "racing." I'm keeping 3 teams from each division "in the race" but, as shown below, the Rockies are dangerously close to falling out of the "race."

In the spirit of another "Countdown" post, I'm going to list the teams that can get to 90, where they stand in the "race" and their opponents for the week. Planning on updating every Monday. Maybe add a comment or two about who is best positioned to make a move and who will face a steep climb for the week. Starting on a Friday this week due to All Star Break.

Toughest series match-ups: Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Nationals

Primed to make strides: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Braves, Rockies

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals - 33 wins needed/69 games left (.478) - Padres (3) at home
Pirates - 34 wins needed/69 games left (.493) - Reds (3) away
Reds - 37 wins needed/67 games left (.552) - Pirates (3) home

NL EAST
Braves - 36 wins needed/67 games left (.537) - White Sox (3) away
Nationals - 42 wins needed/67 games left (.626) - Dodgers (3) home
Phillies - 42 wins needed/66 games left (.636) - Mets (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks - 40 wins needed/67 games left (.597) - Giants (3) away
Dodgers - 43 wins needed/68 games left (.632) - Nationals (3) away
Rockies - 44 wins needed/66 games left (.666) - Cubs (3) home

I think it might be fun to watch how these teams trend on a weekly basis as the remainder of the season goes forward and which teams are improving their margin of error and which teams' margin of error is getting worse.

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 11:51 am 
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As of Monday morning, July 22nd . . .

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals - 31 wins needed/66 games left (.478) - Phillies (4) home; Braves (3) away
Pirates - 33 wins needed/66 games left (.500) - Nationals (4) away; Marlins (3) away
Reds - 35 wins needed/65 games left (.538) - Giants (4) road; Dodgers (4) road

NL EAST
Braves - 35 wins needed/64 games left (.546) - Mets (4) away; Cardinals (3) home
Nationals - 42 wins needed/66 games left (.636) - Pirates (4) home; Mets (3) home
Phillies - 41 wins needed/63 games left (.650) - Cardinals (4) away; Tigers (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks - 39 wins needed/66 games left (.591) - Cubs (4) home; Padres (3) home
Dodgers - 40 wins needed/65 games left (.615) - Blue Jays (3) away; Reds (4) home
Rockies - 42 wins needed/63 games left (.666) - Marlins (4) home; Brewers (3) home

Best Weekend: Dodgers sweep of Nationals on the road.
Worst Weekend: Nationals swept by Dodgers at home; Braves losing two of three to White Sox on road; Phillies losing two of three to Mets on road.

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: Diamondbacks
Staying afloat?: Rockies
Toughest Schedule: Phillies with Cardinals not far behind

UPDATED AFTER JC's Post.

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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


Last edited by No. 9 on Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Jul 22, 2013 11:54 am 
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The Reds play a double header in San Francisco on Tuesday, No. 9, so they have 4 against the Giants and 4 against the Dodgers.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:34 pm 
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I don't want to create a new thread and I really don't want to step on #9's toes in the great 'countdown' thread, so I'll just riff here...

Just some 'fun' facts from a/the standings page:

After 100 games the Bucs are 60-40 (.600), on pace for 97-wins.

'Glass half empty': They would have to go 20-42 (.322) down the stretch to not break .500.

'Glass half full': That's a 52 win pace... not even the 'Stros or Phish have been that bad this year.

'Glass literally half full': They could go 31-31 down the stretch and finish with 91 wins.

'Glass very full': Eighth in run-differential, seventh best home record.

'Glass full of Kool-aid': Second best road record, 94% chance of making the playoffs (by ESPN's calculations).

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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:04 am 
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As of Monday morning, July 29th . . .

I have officially "killed" the Phillies and Rockies as teams that have any chance of getting to 90 wins. As of this morning, they'd have to play .719 and .696 ball for the rest of the season. I think that we can all comfortably conclude that is not going to happen.

I've added, in parentheticals, the current playoff percentage and 7 day change in playoff percentage from the previous week as calculated by Baseball Prospectus.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (98.7% /+.4%) - 28 wins needed/60 games left (.466) - Pirates (5) away; Reds (3) away
Pirates (95.9% / +2.2%) - 29 wins needed/59 games left (.492) - Cardinals (5) home; Rockies (3) home
Reds (91.6% / +4.1%) - 31 wins needed/56 games left (.553) - Padres (3) away; Cardinals (3) home

NL EAST
Braves (97% / +6.2%) - 30 wins needed/57 games left (.526) - Rockies (4) home; Phillies (3) away
Nationals (7.4%/ -5.1%)- 38 wins needed/56 games left (.679) - Tigers (3) away; Brewers (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (18.4% / -13.7%) - 36 wins needed/57 games left (.632) - Rays (3) away; Rangers (1) away; Red Sox (3) away
Dodgers (85.5% / +21.7%) - 34 wins needed/57 games left (.596) - Yankees (3) home; Cubs(4) away

Best Week: Dodgers win 6 of 7, including a sweep of the Blue Jays and beating Reds 3 of 4
Worst Week: Phillies losing all 7 games and losing any sliver of playoff hope; Diamondbacks failing to "go big" against Cubs and Padres
Best Series: Braves sweep Cardinals at home
Worst Series: Cardinals swept by Braves on road

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: Braves
Toughest Schedule: Cardinals and Diamondbacks
Desperately needing a big week: Nationals
Biggest Series: Duh. Do I even have to write it?

FWIW, I'm a huge AL fan this week for interleague games. As far as I'm concerned, the AL can win every darn game.

_________________
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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 05, 2013 10:16 am 
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As of Monday morning, August 5th . . .

Was tempted to "kill off" the Nationals and whittle the Race to 90 down to 6 teams but I'm going to give the Nationals a chance to show its mettle (and to give Bryce Harper a chance to put his money where his mouth is) starting with a three game set against the Braves. I'm dubious that the Nationals can get to 90 wins . . . very dubious. But . . . if (and that's a giant IF) . . . they have any chance, they will have to consider themselves to be in playoff contention and that starts with the Braves series this week. Anything short of a sweep and I'll be ready to put a fork in their foreheads.

FWIW, it certainly appears that history is repeating itself and that any NL team reaching 90 wins this year will qualify for the playoffs. As this is playing out, I really don't see any team winning 90 games and heading home to watch the playoffs on TV.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (99.1% /+.6%) - 25 wins needed/52 games left (.481) - Dodgers (4) home; Cubs (3) home
Pirates (99.2% / +3.0%) - 23 wins needed/51 games left (.451) - Marlins (3) home; Rockies (3) away
Reds (89.4% / -2.0%) - 29 wins needed/50 games left (.580) - A's (2) home; Padres (3) home

NL EAST
Braves (99.9% / +2.8%) - 23 wins needed/50 games left (.460) - Nationals (3) away; Marlins (3) home
Nationals (4.8%/ -2.0%)- 36 wins needed/51 games left (.706) - Braves (3) home; Phillies (3) home

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (11.1%/ -6.9%) - 34 wins needed/51 games left (.667) - Rays (3) home; Mets (3) home
Dodgers (94.8%/ +8.5%) - 29 wins needed/52 games left (.558) - Cardinals (4) away; Rays (3) home

Week in Review:
Best Week: With all due respect to the Dodgers and Braves, the Pirates have to get the nod. Taking 4 of 5 in the divisional showdown was a monsterous acheivement. Throw 2 wins against the Rockies on top and the Bucs need to win a mere 23 games to reach 90 wins.
Worst Week: Was tempted to go with the Cardinals but (1) they were in great shape coming into the week and (2) they rebounded from their seven game losing streak to pound the Bucs in game #5 and then proceeded to throttle the Reds in 2 of 3 games at GABP (a +31 run differential in four games will do wonders for a team's "Expected Wins" ratio!). I'm going to hang the "Worst Week" tag on the Diamondbacks and the Reds. A 2-4 week for the Diamondbacks against tough AL competition when combined with the Dodgers' continued hot streak puts their playoff chances even further in jeopardy. They now sit one game over .500 and are trailing the Dodgers by 6 in the loss column. They only trail the Reds by 4.5 games but they need to win at a .667 pace to reach 90 wins. As for the Reds, they dropped 2 of 3 to the Padres and get hammered 2 of 3 at home by the Cardinals. Even with the Cardinals losing 4 of 5 to the Pirates, the Reds gained no ground in the standings on the Cardinals this week and lost 3 games in the standings to the Pirates.
Best Series: Pirates take four of five from the Cardinals at home
Worst Series: Cardinals lose four of five to the Pirates on the road

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: Pirates (I sooooo hate to type that)
Toughest Schedule: Dodgers
Desperately needing a big week: Once again, the Nationals
Biggest Series: Dodgers at Cardinals for four games.

I'm a big left coast fan for most of this week. Dodgers/Cardinals; A's/Reds; Padres/Reds

_________________
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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:04 am 
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As of Tuesday morning, August 13th . . .

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (97.2% /-1.9%) - 23 wins needed/45 games left (.511) - Pirates (3) home; Cubs (3) away
Pirates (99.1% / -.1%) - 20 wins needed/45 games left (.444) - Cardinals (3) away; Diamondbacks (3) home
Reds (93.0% / +3.6%) - 24 wins needed/44 games left (.545) - Cubs (2) away; Brewers (3) away

NL EAST
Braves (99.9% / 0.0%) - 18 wins needed/43 games left (.418) - Phillies (2) away; Nationals (3) home
Nationals (3.2%/ -1.6%)- 33 wins needed/45 games left (.733) - Giants (3) home; Braves (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (8.3%/ -2.8%) - 30 wins needed/45 games left (.667) - Orioles (2) home; Pirates (3) away
Dodgers (98.7%/ +3.9%) - 22 wins needed/44 games left (.500) - Mets (2) home; Phillies (3) away

Week in Review:
Best Week: Dodgers and Braves. It may be a tad early but it is looking more and more as if the NL East and NL West divisional races are over. The Diamondbacks and Nationals are looking like wildcard contenders at best.
Worst Week: Cardinals. Losing 3 of 4 to Dodgers followed by losing 2 of 3 to Cubs. Tough week for the Redbirds - and it couldn't have come at a more fortuitous time.
Best Series: Dodgers take 3 of 4 from Cardinals.
Worst Series: Cardinals lose 3 of 4 to Dodgers.

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: Reds and Dodgers
Toughest Schedule: Pirates
Desperately needing a big week: For 3rd week running, the Nationals
Biggest Series: Pirates at Cardinals for three games.

And so begins a big stretch for the Bucs. 6 straight games against playoff contending teams before jumping a flight to the West Coast for 7 games in traditionally tough venues.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:14 pm 
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As of Monday afternoon, August 19th . . .

Down to 6 teams with a realistic chance to get to 90 wins. Nationals are done. While they may be an extremely fringe wildcard team, they won't be a wild card team with 90 wins. They aren't going on a Dodgers-like run.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (96.8% /-.5%) - 19 wins needed/39 games left (.487) - Brewers (3) home; Braves (4) away
Pirates (97.5% / -1.6%) - 18 wins needed/39 games left (.462) - Padres (3) away; Giants (4) away
Reds (94.1% / +1.1%) - 20 wins needed/38 games left (.526) - Diamondbacks (4) home; Brewers (3) home

NL EAST
Braves (100% / .1%) - 14 wins needed/38 games left (.368) - Mets (2) away; Cardinals (4) home

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (11.2%/ 2.9%) - 26 wins needed/40 games left (.650) - Reds (4) away; Phillies (3) away
Dodgers (99.1%/ +.5%) - 18 wins needed/39 games left (.462) - Marlins (4) away; Red Sox (3) home

Week in Review:
Best Week: Diamondbacks. Went 5-1 against two playoff contending teams. Three walk-offs against the Orioles. A 16 inning victory against the Pirates. What could have been a week which saw their playoff chances all but evaporate was instead a fantastically successful week. Riding a hot streak at the right time. Honorable mention to the Dodgers. Yawn. Also 5-1 on the week and it is looking like the Dodgers are running away with the NL West and perhaps home field advantage.
Worst Week: Pirates. Lost the first game of the week as a result of lackadaisical play by Marte. Lost a total of 3 games in extra innings. Lambasted in their other loss. Coming off the heels of being unexpectedly swept in Colorado and, of the playoff contenders, the Bucs' 2-7 stretch is the worst.
Best Series: Diamondbacks sweep the Orioles in Phoenix.
Worst Series: Pirates lose 2 of 3 to Cardinals. Not devastating but . . . it could have been so much more. Honorable mention to the Nats losing 2 of 3 to Braves. Game, set, match. Maybe next year.

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: On opponent record alone, the Pirates should be primed to have a big week. But its California . . . .
Toughest Schedule: Nothing overly ominous for any team. D'Backs play four in Cincy. Cards play 4 in Atlanta. Toughest draws of the week.
Desperately needing a big week: Pirates, Cardinals, Reds and Diamondbacks.
Biggest Series: D'Backs at Reds; Cardinals at Braves. Each are four games.

Huge week for the Pirates. I personally feel that this road trip will set the tone for the remainder of the season. Shake off this little funk and all will be fine. A 1-6 or 2-5 stretch? Uuuugh. The sphincters will get very, very tight.

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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:39 am 
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[quote="No. 9"]As of Monday afternoon, August 26th . . .

The genesis of the "Race to 90" involved my thought that getting to 90 wins would all but guarantee a
playoff spot. With the Dodgers and the Braves all but assuring themselves of a division title, the "Race to 90" and its potential playoff implications now really impacts four teams.

As will be calculated below, the Diamondbacks desperately need an NL Central team to collapse. If the Reds, Pirates and Cardinals all play .500 through the season's end, the D'Backs are likely done. They'd have to play north of .727 ball to catch the Cards and the Pirates and .727 ball to catch the Reds.

As this is playing out, a 90 win season should guarantee a playoff spot.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (99.4% / +2.6%) - 14 wins needed/32 games left (.438) - Reds (3) home; Pirates (3) away
Pirates (99.2% / +1.7%) - 14 wins needed/32 games left (.438) - Brewers (3) home; Cardinals (3) home
Reds (96.8% / +2.7%) - 16 wins needed/31 games left (.516) - Cardinals (3) away; Rockies (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (3.5%/ -7.7%) - 24 wins needed/33 games left (.727) - Padres (3) home; Giants (3) home


Week in Review:
Best Week: Cardinals. Took 2 of 3 from Brewers and 3 of 4 from Braves. A 5-2 week actually say them gain ground on the Pirates who played much weaker opposition.
Worst Week: Diamondbacks. Losing 3 of 4 to Reds and 2 of 3 to lowly Phillies puts them in a very tough spot. They now trail the Reds by 6 games in the loss column and the Pirates/Cardinals by a whopping 9 games in the loss column. Moreover, they face the Dodger nine times in their last 33 games (that's more than 25% of their remaining schedule). Tough road to hoe for the Snakes. They really couldn't afford a 2-5 week.
Best Series: Cardinals take 3 of 4 from Braves. Reds take 3 of 4 from Diamondbacks.
Worst Series: Braves and Diamondbacks. See flip-side of above. Honorable mention to the Braves/Mets series. Losing Heyward may prove to be a season changing injury.

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: Diamondbacks. They need to feast on the dregs of the NL West while the NL Central beats up on one another. Anything other than a 5-2 week and the D'Backs are in trouble. They will face the Dodgers 9 times in final 27 games after this week.
Toughest Schedule: Hands down. Cardinals. The beginning of a really tough 13 game stretch.
Desperately needing a big week: Diamondbacks.
Biggest Series: Reds at Cardinals. Cardinals at Pirates.

Huge week for the Pirates. Their magic number against the Reds and/or Cardinals will be reduced by definition over the next 3 days. They need to take at least 2 of 3 against the Brewers at PNC. A sweep heading into the Cardinals series would be momentous. Taking 2 of 3 against Cardinals would give them the season overall series and buy them an "extra half-game" due to tiebreaks. The rubber is hitting the road . . .

_________________
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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:10 pm 
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No. 9 do you think that you need to add the Nats to this? I know that they are on the periphery, but their September is littered with games against the Mets, Marlins and Phillies. They just missed completing a sweep of the Royals that would have given them 7 wins in a row. Maybe I am paranoid, but I don't want anyone else sneaking in!!!


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:25 pm 
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Beat 'em Bucs wrote:
No. 9 do you think that you need to add the Nats to this? I know that they are on the periphery, but their September is littered with games against the Mets, Marlins and Phillies. They just missed completing a sweep of the Royals that would have given them 7 wins in a row. Maybe I am paranoid, but I don't want anyone else sneaking in!!!


They need to go 25-7 to get to 90 wins. That's .781 ball. I'll hold off another week. If they have another stellar week then maybe they can crawl back into the race to get to 90. It would take an incredible run. They have some talent - that's for sure and Werth is on fire.

Good observation . . .

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:44 pm 
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I am hoping that the Marlins remain a tough opponent. They have been pretty good after the ASB and have a couple of young stud pitchers that will hopefully keep the Nats from having their way with them.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:34 pm 
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As of Monday afternoon, September 2nd . . .

Cardinals held their own in the first week of their two week Schedule from Hell. They must feel good about their chances if they can get through the upcoming week in decent shape. Their schedule looks awfully favorable to close out the season.

Diamondbacks were the big losers of the week. They not only needed to go on a run, they needed one of the Cards, Reds or Pirates to go into the tank. They cannot afford to have those 3 teams beat up on one another.

Huge week for the Reds. They lead the Diamondbacks by 5 games in the loss column and the Nationals by 6 in the loss column. Simply put . . . the Reds cannot afford to have a bad week against the Cards and the Dodgers. With 6 more games looming against the Pirates, the Reds need to hold their own at the Bandbox this week.

The Pirates laid an egg against the Brewers but rebounded nicely against the Cards. Its time for the mirror schedule and we'll see how they do on the road. They have to be looking at no worse than 3-3. A 3-3 week will make it real tough on the D'Backs to remain in contention.

No doubt in my mind that 90 wins will earn a playoff spot. Barring a nuclear meltdown in either St. Louis or Pittsburgh, I see both teams getting there.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (99.7% / +.3%) - 11 wins needed/26 games left (.423) - Reds (4) away; Pirates (3) home
Pirates (99.6% / +.4%) - 11 wins needed/26 games left (.423) - Brewers (3) away; Cardinals (3) away
Reds (95.6% / -1.2%) - 14 wins needed/25 games left (.560) - Cardinals (4) home; Dodgers (3) home

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (2.2%/ -1.3%) - 21 wins needed/27 games left (.777) - Blue Jays (3) home; Giants (3) away

Week in Review:
Best Week: Cardinals. They are now 10 games into their tough stretch and are currently 6-4. They've lost no ground during the stretch.
Worst Week: Reds and Diamondbacks. Reds lost 2 straight series and failed to gain any ground on the Pirates and lost ground to Cardinals. Diamondbacks played .500 ball when they need to be playing .750 ball. They aren't getting to 90 wins but are holding onto a playoff spot thanks to the Reds' stumbling towards the finish line.
Best Series: Cardinals take 2 of 3 from Reds. Bucs take 2 of 3 from Cardinals.
Worst Series: Pirates lose 2 of 3 to Brewers at PNC Park. Big lost opportunity. Reds lose 2 of 3 at Coors Field. No happy flight for the Reds to prepare for Cardinals.

Upcoming Week:
Set for big week: No one. Every team listed here has tough teams lined up. This week will be more about "treading water" than making a big move.
Toughest Schedule: Reds and Cardinals.
Desperately needing a big week: Diamondbacks. Again.
Biggest Series: Cardinals at Reds. Pirates at Cardinals. Dodgers at Reds.

Huge week for the Pirates. Their magic number against the Reds and/or Cardinals will be reduced by definition over the next 7 days. Putting up 4 wins this week would be monstrous towards securing a playoff spot.

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 09, 2013 7:27 pm 
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As of Monday afternoon, September 9th . . .

Yeah . . . I've got a lot of enthusiasm for this post. NOT.

The nature of the post must change. There is no question at this point that 90 wins will earn a playoff spot. There are only three teams that can get to 90 and they all reside at the top of the NL Central. The only question that remains is whether any one of the 3 NL Central teams will pull a '11 Red Sox or '11 Braves and whether the Nationals and Diamondbacks can catch fire.

Below are the schedules for the only teams that have a fighting chance to get into the playoffs this week. BP's playoff odds are listed at the beginning, along with the change over the previous 7 days.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (99.9% / +.2%) - Brewers (3) home; Mariners (3) home
Pirates (99.7% / +.1%) - Rangers (3) away; Cubs (4) home
Reds (99.8% / +4.2%) - Cubs (3) home; Brewers (3) away

NL WEST
Diamondbacks (.2%/ -2.0%) - Dodgers (3) away; Rockies (3) home

NL EAST
Nationals (.4%/ -2.5%) - Mets (3) away; Phillies (3) home

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:37 pm 
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Do the Cards catch King Felix?

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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:00 am 
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As of Monday afternoon, September 16th . . .

What a difference a week makes. Bucs take 6 of 7 after getting manhandled in St. Louis.

Thanks to the Giants sweeping the Dodgers and the Braves stumbling a bit, no team has yet to hit 90 wins. That will change this week. Braves, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers and even the Reds have a chance to get to 90 this week - although it will be bad news for the Bucs if the Reds get to 90 this week (they need to win all 6 games).

Last week, I wrote that the only question that remains is whether any one of the 3 NL Central teams will pull a '11 Red Sox or '11 Braves and whether the Nationals and Diamondbacks can catch fire.

So far, none of the NL Central teams looks poised to take a swan dive as the season wraps up. However, the Nationals have "caught fire" while the D'Backs have all but flamed out.

This week should offer its fair share of intrigue. Can the Nats stay hot and take at least 2 of 3 against the Braves? And, if so, will they continue to dominate lesser competition when they play the Marlins? Will the Rockies continue to play good ball at home and give the Cardinals some problems? Will the Pirates and Reds take advantage of the Padres and Astros? And, finally, what will happen at PNC Park this weekend?

As for the NL Central, the Pirates play 7 at home this week while the Cards and the Reds play all of their games on the road.

Below are the schedules for the only teams that have a fighting chance to get into the playoffs this week. I've scrubbed the D'Backs. They're toast. BP's playoff odds are listed at the beginning, along with the change over the previous 7 days.

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals (99.7% / -.2%) - Rockies (4) away; Brewers (3) home
Pirates (99.9% / +.2%) - Padres (4) home; Reds (3) home
Reds (98.8% / -1.0%) - Astros (3) away; Pirates (3) away

NL EAST
Nationals (1.5%/ +1.1%) - Braves (3) home; Marlins (3) home

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Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:31 pm 
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9, St Louis plays the brewers in Milwaukee.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 4:24 pm 
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1.5% that the Nationals will make the playoffs? It has to be better than that.


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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:03 pm 
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The Rotten One wrote:
1.5% that the Nationals will make the playoffs? It has to be better than that.

Absolutely not. The Nats are still 4.5 games behind the Reds for the WC spot, and they have only 13 more games to play. A lot has to go right for the Nats to make the playoffs. A lot.

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 Post subject: Re: The Race To 90
PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:51 pm 
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As of Monday afternoon, September 23rd . . .

No complicated analysis needed.

3 NL teams have reached 90 wins. All 3 have clinched playoff berths.

3 NL teams with a chance to reach 90 wins. Bucs and Reds need one more; Nats need to win all of their remaining 6.

Barring a cruel twist of fate foisted upon us all by the Baseball Gods, the Nats won't get to 90 and the Bucs and Reds will both be playoff eligible after getting to 90 wins early this week. Looks like the "Race to 90" will once again dictate - as history has repeatedly shown - what teams are playing post-season baseball.

After that, its merely a battle for playoff seeding.

NL CENTRAL
Pirates (99.9% / 0%) - Cubs (3) home; Reds (3) away
Reds (99.9 / +1.1%) - Mets (3) home; Pirates (3) home

NL EAST
Nationals (.2%/ -1.3%) - Cardinals (3) away; Diamondbacks (3) away

_________________
Reflexively, obsessively and tastelessly submitted,
No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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