Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:04 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 125 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:16 am 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Eastern Shore
batterup wrote:
All I'm saying is I like the stats that have been around since babe Ruth was playing. Look in the paper tomorrow morning, they will have players batting averages over all the other triple digit numbers, same with homers, rbi and runs. The game has gotten too complicated with a stat for everything.
Avg, hr, RBI, r, bb, and k's are all I need. I'm just used to loving my baseball cards and memorizing stats like that, maybe I don't want to see it go for this new stuff. Gaby Sanchez is an all star with these new stats I guess but he plays like a journeyman.

I hear ya. I really do. And you know, if we're talking about comparing a Babe Ruth to a Ted Williams, then yeah, the baseball card stats as you call them,* do the job just fine. But, it's when we're trying to compare more average players that runs, hits and rbis don't work as well.

So, let me recommend one stat to add to your arsenal: OPS. As Ape has already mentioned, it is the adding together of two averages that have been around a long time: on base percentage and slugging percentage. As you already know, better players get more walks, so that is reflected in on base percentage, as is the reward of speed, you know, the faster guy avoids hitting into DPs and can maybe take advantage of fielding errors. And slugging percentage accounts for doubles and homeruns being better than singles. So, you have two averages and they're added together: On-base percentage + Slugging = OPS.

Now, adding two averages together is actually quite dubious from a mathematical point of view, but it does have great relevance from a purely descriptive point of view. And the resulting OPS stat does have the value of being a nice number. Just like getting 100 RBIs in a season is nice, and 500 HRs over the course of a career, OPS is a good number.

Anyone hitting 1.000 in OPS is having a damn fine year. Currently there are only three qualifying players hitting 1.000+ OPS for this season: Cabrerra, Davis, and Ortiz. There are only 8 everyday players hitting .900: CarGo, Trout, Goldschmidt, Cuddyer, Wright, Cano, Posey and Votto. And there's about 45 players hitting .800.

It's a good, simple, single number to tell you who's having a good year. And the number breaks down well to enable you to compare full time studs with players who are being platooned.

Now, your larger question is why is a guy who's hitting in the supposedly otherworldly realm of .900 OPS seem like such a journeyman to you. Well, that's because he is a journeyman. Just like a basketball player who can only dribble one way or a soccer player who can only use one foot, a player who can only hit lefties is not nearly as good as a player who can do both. And you know it by looking at him. But, he can have uses, and in baseball, more than other sports, a manager can pick his spots easier.


* That's a great moniker for them, BTW. I'm going to use it, with your permission.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 10:20 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:28 pm
Posts: 673
bucco boy wrote:
Good air, by AJ.


Loved the ninja-like stealth by AJ out of the dugout along with the running, twisting pie-face! Big win for Bucs and bodes well for the rest of the weekend.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 8:56 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:12 pm
Posts: 1075
val wrote:
batterup wrote:
All I'm saying is I like the stats that have been around since babe Ruth was playing. Look in the paper tomorrow morning, they will have players batting averages over all the other triple digit numbers, same with homers, rbi and runs. The game has gotten too complicated with a stat for everything.
Avg, hr, RBI, r, bb, and k's are all I need. I'm just used to loving my baseball cards and memorizing stats like that, maybe I don't want to see it go for this new stuff. Gaby Sanchez is an all star with these new stats I guess but he plays like a journeyman.

I hear ya. I really do. And you know, if we're talking about comparing a Babe Ruth to a Ted Williams, then yeah, the baseball card stats as you call them,* do the job just fine. But, it's when we're trying to compare more average players that runs, hits and rbis don't work as well.

So, let me recommend one stat to add to your arsenal: OPS. As Ape has already mentioned, it is the adding together of two averages that have been around a long time: on base percentage and slugging percentage. As you already know, better players get more walks, so that is reflected in on base percentage, as is the reward of speed, you know, the faster guy avoids hitting into DPs and can maybe take advantage of fielding errors. And slugging percentage accounts for doubles and homeruns being better than singles. So, you have two averages and they're added together: On-base percentage + Slugging = OPS.

Now, adding two averages together is actually quite dubious from a mathematical point of view, but it does have great relevance from a purely descriptive point of view. And the resulting OPS stat does have the value of being a nice number. Just like getting 100 RBIs in a season is nice, and 500 HRs over the course of a career, OPS is a good number.

Anyone hitting 1.000 in OPS is having a damn fine year. Currently there are only three qualifying players hitting 1.000+ OPS for this season: Cabrerra, Davis, and Ortiz. There are only 8 everyday players hitting .900: CarGo, Trout, Goldschmidt, Cuddyer, Wright, Cano, Posey and Votto. And there's about 45 players hitting .800.

It's a good, simple, single number to tell you who's having a good year. And the number breaks down well to enable you to compare full time studs with players who are being platooned.

Now, your larger question is why is a guy who's hitting in the supposedly otherworldly realm of .900 OPS seem like such a journeyman to you. Well, that's because he is a journeyman. Just like a basketball player who can only dribble one way or a soccer player who can only use one foot, a player who can only hit lefties is not nearly as good as a player who can do both. And you know it by looking at him. But, he can have uses, and in baseball, more than other sports, a manager can pick his spots easier.


* That's a great moniker for them, BTW. I'm going to use it, with your permission.



I really appreciate the time you took to explain this to me, your a good man!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:21 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Eastern Shore
TheShark wrote:
batterup wrote:
Avg, hr, RBI, r, bb, and k's are all I need. I'm just used to loving my baseball cards and memorizing stats like that, maybe I don't want to see it go for this new stuff. Gaby Sanchez is an all star with these new stats I guess but he plays like a journeyman.


How on earth are you over-thinking something so simple and trying to make it an argument about advanced metrics being useless or too complicated/tedious? Here it is: Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez are both first basemen. Jones hits RHP very well but hits LHP like Clint Barmes. Gaby Sanchez does the opposite and hits LHP very well so the two of them platoon. Use whatever statistic you prefer to see to take a look at the platoon splits of the two players.

What am I missing though? You keep tossing out these platoon splits, but Sanchez has nearly twice as many ABs versus righties as he does lefties. I know there are more righthanded pitchers than lefties -- they've had a total of 76 ABs vs lefties all year as opposed to 358 vs righties-- so it seems to me that this lefty-righty platoon split is a bit overstated.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:24 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:01 pm
Posts: 7106
val wrote:
What am I missing though? You keep tossing out these platoon splits, but Sanchez has nearly twice as many ABs versus righties as he does lefties. I know there are more righthanded pitchers than lefties -- they've had a total of 76 ABs vs lefties all year as opposed to 358 vs righties-- so it seems to me that this lefty-righty platoon split is a bit overstated.



That's because the production and health in right field has not been good this year and Jones has started 20 games out there.

_________________
I say keep the $50 and ban him anyway...

For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:55 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4566
Location: Pittsburgh
val wrote:
TheShark wrote:
batterup wrote:
Avg, hr, RBI, r, bb, and k's are all I need. I'm just used to loving my baseball cards and memorizing stats like that, maybe I don't want to see it go for this new stuff. Gaby Sanchez is an all star with these new stats I guess but he plays like a journeyman.


How on earth are you over-thinking something so simple and trying to make it an argument about advanced metrics being useless or too complicated/tedious? Here it is: Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez are both first basemen. Jones hits RHP very well but hits LHP like Clint Barmes. Gaby Sanchez does the opposite and hits LHP very well so the two of them platoon. Use whatever statistic you prefer to see to take a look at the platoon splits of the two players.

What am I missing though? You keep tossing out these platoon splits, but Sanchez has nearly twice as many ABs versus righties as he does lefties. I know there are more righthanded pitchers than lefties -- they've had a total of 76 ABs vs lefties all year as opposed to 358 vs righties-- so it seems to me that this lefty-righty platoon split is a bit overstated.

It's kind of hard to blame Sanchez when it's Hurdle who is sending him out there to face righties.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:31 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 11:12 pm
Posts: 1075
I disagree, Sanchez has failed mightily with risp, especially the past few weeks, I'm not giving stats bc I don't feel like researching, but he failed 2 times with bases loaded on Friday and once yesterday, not to mention he failed in the oakland series when given the chance. He is a professional baseball player, he needs to hit every once in a while at least.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:39 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1842
Location: Tejas
batterup wrote:
I disagree, Sanchez has failed mightily with risp, especially the past few weeks, I'm not giving stats bc I don't feel like researching, but he failed 2 times with bases loaded on Friday and once yesterday, not to mention he failed in the oakland series when given the chance. He is a professional baseball player, he needs to hit every once in a while at least.


Is that necessarily an indication of his worth as a baseball player as a whole or just part of a natural ebb and flow that occurs when a failure rate of 70% is considered excellent?

Considering there's no such thing as clutch, it's rational to assume that he will ultimately hit with RISP at a rate around where his overall numbers would indicate he should by the end of the year. Meaning, he'll probably have good numbers against lefties and poor numbers against righties.

Even if he hits .250 with RISP, he's failing 3 times for every one success.

Too much SSS focus here. He is what his numbers say he is, how he gets there is irrelevant.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:58 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Eastern Shore
sisyphus wrote:
It's kind of hard to blame Sanchez when it's Hurdle who is sending him out there to face righties.

The general population is approximately 10% left handed, and with the premium placed on pitchers who are left handed, it seems left handed players have greater representation amongst pitchers. Based on the ABs our players have recorded, it seems that we're facing lefties about 17% of the time. What real use is there for a player whose dominant skill set is so infrequently called for?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:02 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Eastern Shore
StarlingArcher wrote:
batterup wrote:
I disagree, Sanchez has failed mightily with risp, especially the past few weeks, I'm not giving stats bc I don't feel like researching, but he failed 2 times with bases loaded on Friday and once yesterday, not to mention he failed in the oakland series when given the chance. He is a professional baseball player, he needs to hit every once in a while at least.


Is that necessarily an indication of his worth as a baseball player as a whole or just part of a natural ebb and flow that occurs when a failure rate of 70% is considered excellent?

Considering there's no such thing as clutch, it's rational to assume that he will ultimately hit with RISP at a rate around where his overall numbers would indicate he should by the end of the year. Meaning, he'll probably have good numbers against lefties and poor numbers against righties.

Even if he hits .250 with RISP, he's failing 3 times for every one success.

Too much SSS focus here. He is what his numbers say he is, how he gets there is irrelevant.

I would disagree with that assertion, every as I would agree that "clutch" is a very difficult thing to pin down.

I was looking for historical splits based on situation and couldn't find them at first glance. I can get lots of splits for this year. Got a site where I can search to see if my assertion holds water?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:09 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1842
Location: Tejas
Fangraphs is pretty solid for splits of any kind. Just click on career and it'll show splits for leverage, men on, RISP, etc.. Unfortunately, it doesn't show those stats broken down vs lefties and righties, which would be particularly useful for Gaby (who hits .283 against lefties and .198 against righties....so the numbers will likely be in the middle).

The main reason clutch isn't believed to exist is because most variations are chalked up to SSS and eventually even out over the course of a player's career. It can vary from year to year, but when taken over a huge sample, nobody really performs better than their overall numbers would indicate, at least to a statistically relevant level.

Derek Jeter, who is widely regarded as being incredibly clutch, for example:

Jeter has a career .829 OPS. To break it down into clutch situations, his OPS is .825 in high-leverage situations that add the most to a team’s win expectancy, .818 with runners in scoring position, .834 with two outs and runners in scoring position and .794 in the late innings of close games.

Does he perform very well in clutch situations? Yes. But clutch implies an ability to elevate your level of play in pressure situations. And there's been no proof of that existing. Kobe Bryant is another example of a guy who is regarded as clutch but doesn't outperform his overall numbers in tough situations. They're just good players who are good enough to make a difference in tough situations.

Here's a good, short article on it without getting into laborious mathematical explanations:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/15640996-419/small-sample-sizes-tend-to-skew-clutch-statistics.html

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4566
Location: Pittsburgh
batterup wrote:
I disagree, Sanchez has failed mightily with risp, especially the past few weeks, I'm not giving stats bc I don't feel like researching, but he failed 2 times with bases loaded on Friday and once yesterday, not to mention he failed in the oakland series when given the chance. He is a professional baseball player, he needs to hit every once in a while at least.

He's a lefty masher. You put him up there against rights and you get what you deserve. Same deal from the other side with Jones.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:41 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1137
Location: Eastern Shore
StarlingArcher wrote:
Fangraphs is pretty solid for splits of any kind. Just click on career and it'll show splits for leverage, men on, RISP, etc.. Unfortunately, it doesn't show those stats broken down vs lefties and righties, which would be particularly useful for Gaby (who hits .283 against lefties and .198 against righties....so the numbers will likely be in the middle).

The main reason clutch isn't believed to exist is because most variations are chalked up to SSS and eventually even out over the course of a player's career. It can vary from year to year, but when taken over a huge sample, nobody really performs better than their overall numbers would indicate, at least to a statistically relevant level.

Derek Jeter, who is widely regarded as being incredibly clutch, for example:

Jeter has a career .829 OPS. To break it down into clutch situations, his OPS is .825 in high-leverage situations that add the most to a team’s win expectancy, .818 with runners in scoring position, .834 with two outs and runners in scoring position and .794 in the late innings of close games.

Does he perform very well in clutch situations? Yes. But clutch implies an ability to elevate your level of play in pressure situations. And there's been no proof of that existing. Kobe Bryant is another example of a guy who is regarded as clutch but doesn't outperform his overall numbers in tough situations. They're just good players who are good enough to make a difference in tough situations.Here's a good, short article on it without getting into laborious mathematical explanations:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/15640996-419/small-sample-sizes-tend-to-skew-clutch-statistics.html

OK, that is pretty much my definition for clutch: since 50% of the game is 90% mental (to misquote Yogi), I don't need "clutch" players to elevate their game and be better, I need my "clutch" players to perform as well under the harsher spotlight and with greater stakes as they do when they're more relaxed. And yeah, we as fans are going to give greater due to the successes than the failures when talking about the great ones, but yeah, "clutch" exists. It's much easier to see in golf, say, but Woods and Nicklaus and even Vijay Singh have it, while it's obvious Norman and Mickelson and Sergio Garcia don't.

As for Jeter, and while I know you always want the bat in the hands of your best player at crunch time, who would you rather have at bat for you when it mattered: Jeter or A-Rod?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4566
Location: Pittsburgh
val wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
It's kind of hard to blame Sanchez when it's Hurdle who is sending him out there to face righties.

The general population is approximately 10% left handed, and with the premium placed on pitchers who are left handed, it seems left handed players have greater representation amongst pitchers. Based on the ABs our players have recorded, it seems that we're facing lefties about 17% of the time. What real use is there for a player whose dominant skill set is so infrequently called for?

Ask this guy.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ol01.shtml

Lefty mashers are fewer in numbers than their opposites, but they aren't useless, especially when they have a platoon partner who is useless against lefties, such as Garrett Jones. Even if you get rid of Sanchez, you'll have to find somebody just like him to take his place, or else you're stuck with Jone's mediocre glove and useless bat against lefties.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:48 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1842
Location: Tejas
Considering A-Rod has a .969 career OPS in high leverage situations, I want A-Rod every time.

People held A-Rod to a higher standard than his abilities indicated they should. They felt since he was the best player, if he failed then he choked and they fixated on the failures. But that's irrational and not supported by numbers. Just inflated expectations above a reasonable limit.

The Pirates aren't really struggling in terms of "clutch" this year, their RISP average is right around their team average.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:03 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 4903
val wrote:
As for Jeter, and while I know you always want the bat in the hands of your best player at crunch time, who would you rather have at bat for you when it mattered: Jeter or A-Rod?


This is the key to misconception though.

By his splits A-Rod has a .933 OPS w/ RISP and .955 w/ men on. And why wouldn't he? He's a prodigious hitter, hence his insane career stat-lines.

We just think Jeter is more 'clutch' because we've seen him do it so many times in the playoffs and therefore have a bias.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:04 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 4903
StarlingArcher wrote:
Considering A-Rod has a .969 career OPS in high leverage situations, I want A-Rod every time.

People held A-Rod to a higher standard than his abilities indicated they should. They felt since he was the best player, if he failed then he choked and they fixated on the failures. But that's irrational and not supported by numbers. Just inflated expectations above a reasonable limit.


This.

Same thing for Bonds; for years he was considered a 'choker' even though he produced in the playoffs.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:09 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1842
Location: Tejas
Not to mention, A-Rod and Bonds were pretty much roundly disliked. So of course when they would have a rough series it was chalked up to choking and not just SSS. Same goes for LeBron. Guy puts up a near triple-double yet gets the blame for his team's loss and an inability to play under pressure. Simply not true.

Jeter, on the other hand, is a media darling. How often do you hear somebody point out how below average he is defensively? They tend to play up the positives and overlook his deficiencies. He's a great player, but not all players get the same treatment in the media. Which is I guess not a surprise, as numbers are kind of dry and unemotional.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 5:16 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 4903
StarlingArcher wrote:
Not to mention, A-Rod and Bonds were pretty much roundly disliked. So of course when they would have a rough series it was chalked up to choking and not just SSS.

Jeter, on the other hand, is a media darling. How often do you hear somebody point out how below average he is defensively? They tend to play up the positives and overlook his deficiencies. He's a great player, but not all players get the same treatment in the media. Which is I guess not a surprise, as numbers are kind of dry and unemotional.


Precisely.

Which I always found odd. The difference between Jeter and A-Rod is intangible/unquantifiable 'charm'. They're both similar personas.

However, for example, when A-Rod gets with Kate Hudson or Madonna he gets put under the microscope. When Jeter goes through his assembly line of tail (Minka Kelly, Mariah, etc.) he's revered as a Casanova.

The same obviously and illogically implies to their stats. Has Jeter ever won MVP's? He maybe has one or two 'black ink' seasons. A-Rod, PEDs or not, is/was among the best players of his generation, moved positions to accomodate Jeter and 'chased' money and titles whereas Jeter was priviledged to already have money and titles.

Perception is a funny thing.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: July 12, 2013 pirates 54-36 vs mets 40-48
PostPosted: Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:32 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 1842
Location: Tejas
In fairness, Jeter does go the extra mile by sending his conquests home with a Derek Jeter gift basket. :lol:

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 125 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], bucco boy, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], No. 9 and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits