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 Post subject: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:31 am 
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A Pittsburgh native, he was on discussing the Bucs and baseball, including his role in "Moneyball". Suffice it to say, he was not appreciative of his portrayal. That said, the single most interesting thing he had to say about sabremetrics, and which made complete sense to me, was on their overall effectiveness. To wit, sabremetrics were great for setting up the regular season approach (e.g., taking a lot of pitches to work a pitcher) because you constantly run into the 3, 4, 5, and AAAA pitchers. So, making those pitchers work is beneficial because they have trouble throwing strikes.

HOWEVER, once you hit the playoffs, that changes. You are now running into everyone's 1 and 2 and "working" the pitcher only gets you to 0-1 and 0-2 counts. Then, you lose.

Makes sense to me and seems consistent with what I've observed of the Pirates approach (on the whole) this year. That is, against Matt Harvey, they are swinging early and often, while working the count on the lower end pitchers.

If nothing else it is a reality check on the limitations and overuse of stats, such as this year's metric du jur WAR.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:50 pm 
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That has very little to do with sabremetrics and everything to do with (at the time) their obsession with getting guys on base. Couldn't get guys on base against the aces and it'd sink them.

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 Post subject: Re: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:33 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
If nothing else it is a reality check on the limitations and overuse of stats, such as this year's metric du jur WAR.

ZM


IMO, one of the most unfortunate results from Moneyball's popularity is the creation of a fairly sizeable population that don't understand the game well enough to realize when the "advanced metrics" have little to no application to the situation at hand.

My favorite example of this - as I have repeatedly asserted - is what I would consider to be misuse of the R.E. Table. Indeed, I was encouraged to see a graphic during the last Cubs/Pirates series on WGN. With a runner on second and no out, WGN put up a graphic which read something to the effect of "Cubs prevent a run x% of the time; Pirates score that run y% of the time." It was the first time that I've seen anyone attempt to use a team-specific RE figure on the screen. Now, of course, you can always take issue with using a team average and trying to apply that to a particular hitter against a particular pitcher during a particular time. For example, the RE with a runner on second base and no outs against a left handed pitcher in April with Alvarez at the plate is much different than now in the same situation but a right handed pitcher on the mound.

IMO, what can't be lost in the numbers is the realities posed by the actual game and the actual participants. I personally think that gets lost way too often in the heavily numeric analysis.

I'll also stress that I don't dislike sabermetrics. I personally find it very interesting. Indeed, I'll vigorously argue that advanced metrics have likely played a huge role in the Pirates' success this year. Advanced metrics which results from advanced scouting should give incredible data on a particular hitter's or pitcher's tendencies which should impact defense alignment, how batters are pitched and what a pitcher could expect to throw in a particular situation.

My issue lies in how the metrics are applied and the advocacy (usually very rigid, unbending advocacy) accompanying the application.

My last point is this . . . I think some sabermetricans want baseball to be black-and-white. I would vigorously disagree with anyone's efforts to paint the game in only those two colors. There is a vast amount of strategy in the game and the game is and always will be colored in shades of grey.

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 Post subject: Re: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 8:14 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
A Pittsburgh native, he was on discussing the Bucs and baseball, including his role in "Moneyball". Suffice it to say, he was not appreciative of his portrayal. That said, the single most interesting thing he had to say about sabremetrics, and which made complete sense to me, was on their overall effectiveness. To wit, sabremetrics were great for setting up the regular season approach (e.g., taking a lot of pitches to work a pitcher) because you constantly run into the 3, 4, 5, and AAAA pitchers. So, making those pitchers work is beneficial because they have trouble throwing strikes.

HOWEVER, once you hit the playoffs, that changes. You are now running into everyone's 1 and 2 and "working" the pitcher only gets you to 0-1 and 0-2 counts. Then, you lose.

Makes sense to me and seems consistent with what I've observed of the Pirates approach (on the whole) this year. That is, against Matt Harvey, they are swinging early and often, while working the count on the lower end pitchers.

If nothing else it is a reality check on the limitations and overuse of stats, such as this year's metric du jur WAR.

ZM

He's full of crap. You're still seeing their third and fourth best starters as well. And nothing he said had anything at all to do with WAR.

Don't blame him for not liking Moneyball, though. The movie seriously exaggerated what was in the book as far as Howe was concerned, and I think the book's portrayal of Howe was itself a bit of an exaggeration, and not a flattering one. Art Howe has forgotten more about baseball than Michael Lewis will ever know.

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 Post subject: Re: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:59 pm 
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Agreed...there always has to be a villain in a Hollywood picture show.... :lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Art Howe on "The Fan"
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:09 pm 
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Ya they portrayed Howe as being a dumb ass pretty much and just rode the success of billy bean.


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