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 Post subject: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 5:50 am 
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In order to keep rolling in the second half we need two things:
1.The pitching has to continue to be top notch. Much will depend on Cole and Locke. As young guys just being seen by the league, they have done what many young kids do in their first half. It's now time to see if the league catches up to them. I think that there's a good chance that Locke will have a decline in productivity as the batters adjust and the breaks don't go his way as in his last start. Cole on the other hand should continue to develop as he gets more experience. The relievers should continue their great season, even if one or two fall off, there is a lot of depth and we can stay strong here.Our defense this year has been much improved and should stay strong. That, of course, is a big help to the pitchers.Injuries could also play a major role but all in all I like our chances to have staying power on the bump.
2. The hitting needs to be more consistent. I expect Alverez, Cutch and Marte to be the main stays. All of them will have some ups and downs but they must carry the mail. It's the others who need to show some strength to step up in the second half. A healthy Walker, continued balanced Martin and a better 1st base production with both guys returning to earlier success will make the difference. And of course the bench. We need to make some move here. McHenry isn't any help, nor is Inge or Barmes. When all three are in the game, we stink. Maybe Sanchez can halp with the catching and a bat can be found probably from the left side. Mostly I want to dance with who brung us but would like to see a minor trade to help the bench hitting.
That is IMHO our situation-- what do you think?

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 8:07 am 
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It's the lack of offense for me Sub that has me concerned and has been since the beginning of the season. And, I'm not real thrilled with our Bench power either...if we have any on a game to game basis.

We know our pitching is going to slide as the season wears on. It will be if the offense can score enough runs each game to keep the pitchers and the team afloat.

Right now, according to our track record, I have serious doubts.

These guys, every position player, have to step up and produce or a trade needs to be made to inject more offense into this Pirate line-up.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:33 am 
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bassoondirector wrote:
Bench power


Oxymoron? :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 12:40 pm 
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The pitcher deemed most likely to regress is Jeff Locke, since his FIP is 3.82. However, it is important to note that his FIP has come down quite a bit from early on, and is that high in large part due to his low K rate. His K rate is lower than expected, however, so even his FIP has a genuine chance to lower quite a bit.

Further, excluding April, his FIP is 3.34. Since his actual ERA is 2.15, sabre followers believe his ERA is very likely to increase the 2nd half.

Again, however, if he increases his K rate, and the defense continues to be above average, that regression will not be as significant as predicted (or feared). If he has an ERA of 3.00 in the 2nd half, then no real problem, IMO.

Getting a productive Walker back into the line-up and one more bat will mean that a 3.00 ERA = wins. That extra bat might be Tabata.

The bench can be improved inexpensively. Marlon Byrd - power, can play a decent RF - is the guy I like. The Mets are not going anywhere, don't look at him as a part of the future, so he should be cheap.

Replace Inge with Byrd. Keep Harrison and Barmes as the back-up IF'ers. McKenry is going to be the backup C until September. Gaby or Jones on the bench as well. A bench with Byrd, Harrison, Jones/Sanchez, Barmes, and McKenry will work.


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:00 pm 
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Playoffs, no. Above .500 yes. The biggest drag on the offense can't be fixed/replaced and I'm not expecting a King Felix type of line out of Liriano and Locke. That said, before when pitchers would regress you were looking at it being disastrous. With Liriano and Locke you're looking at going from Cy Young contender to borderline ace and strong #3....both of which we'd have been ecstatic with heading into the year. Plus, I think being lefties at PNC gives them a very large margin for error....more so than righties we've always had before.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:39 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
The pitcher deemed most likely to regress is Jeff Locke, since his FIP is 3.82. However, it is important to note that his FIP has come down quite a bit from early on, and is that high in large part due to his low K rate. His K rate is lower than expected, however, so even his FIP has a genuine chance to lower quite a bit.

Further, excluding April, his FIP is 3.34. Since his actual ERA is 2.15, sabre followers believe his ERA is very likely to increase the 2nd half.

Again, however, if he increases his K rate, and the defense continues to be above average, that regression will not be as significant as predicted (or feared). If he has an ERA of 3.00 in the 2nd half, then no real problem, IMO.

Getting a productive Walker back into the line-up and one more bat will mean that a 3.00 ERA = wins. That extra bat might be Tabata.

The bench can be improved inexpensively. Marlon Byrd - power, can play a decent RF - is the guy I like. The Mets are not going anywhere, don't look at him as a part of the future, so he should be cheap.

Replace Inge with Byrd. Keep Harrison and Barmes as the back-up IF'ers. McKenry is going to be the backup C until September. Gaby or Jones on the bench as well. A bench with Byrd, Harrison, Jones/Sanchez, Barmes, and McKenry will work.


Good ideas, all. Byrd would be a solid addition, though I'd prefer a higher OBP guy.


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:42 pm 
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MLB trade rumors doesn't think the Mets will trade Byrd..why?...who knows why the Mets do what they do...they do however think that this statement may be the way the Mets raise the price for Byrd... :roll: :roll: :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:45 pm 
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Side Note: What about Gerrit Cole's innings? Why is no one discussing this? Why are the Pirates thinking of sending Cole to AAA or AA to throw more innings when he only threw 134 or so last year and he's on pace to hit 200+ this year? If anything, the Pirates should send him to the minors to rest and toss a couple of bullpen sessions before they need a fifth starter on July 24th.

I don't know what the Pirates' brass are up to, but I can't think they'll allow Cole to throw more than 165 or 175 innings this season. It would be reckless to allow him to go beyond that.


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 1:49 pm 
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I'd be interested in seeing if the Mets could be persuaded in dealing Byrd and John Buck for a solid prospect.

Buck is blocking Travis d'Arnaud (coming back from injury, should've made the club out of ST but they kept him down for Super 2 reasons), has a pretty big contract that'll expire at the end of the year, and actually throws runners out. Doesn't hit, but neither does McKenry. Maybe take his contract off their hands to bring down the price of Byrd and have ourselves two solid veterans for 3 months.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 2:58 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I'd be interested in seeing if the Mets could be persuaded in dealing Byrd and John Buck for a solid prospect.

Buck is blocking Travis d'Arnaud (coming back from injury, should've made the club out of ST but they kept him down for Super 2 reasons), has a pretty big contract that'll expire at the end of the year, and actually throws runners out. Doesn't hit, but neither does McKenry. Maybe take his contract off their hands to bring down the price of Byrd and have ourselves two solid veterans for 3 months.




While Buck would be a defensive upgrade over McKenry, I'm not sure how available he is at the moment. D'Arnaud's foot problems will prevent him from playing for the Mets until at least late August, so clearing room for him is really not a big issue. Plus the Mets seem to like having a veteran catcher work with Harvey and Wheeler.

Since early May, Buck is hitting .187 with a .550 OPS. And last year he hit .192 with a .644 OPS - so I wouldn't view him as an upgrade at the plate. He is not the same hitter he was a few years ago. He throws better than the Fort (no surprise there), but he is very average in terms of throwing runners out.


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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:23 pm 
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Yeah didn't realize d'Arnaud was having pains in his foot during rehab, I swear fragility must just run in that family. Figured he'd be back around the trade deadline and they could just flip Buck on Deadline Day then maybe bring him up a week or so later. Geez, neither of them can stay healthy to save their lives.

Buck's probably off the table then, doubt they'd wanna go with Recker the rest of the way. Definitely wasn't expecting much from him with the bat, but Fort's hitting sub-.200 himself and with horrendous defense to boot. I have pretty low standards for a backup catcher, just give me a really good bat or passable defense.

Would like to see Sanchez but can understand why they'd want to give him as many reps as possible this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:26 pm 
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Substitute2 wrote:
Do we have staying power?


Yes.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:30 pm 
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Ken wrote:
D'Arnaud's foot problems will prevent him from playing for the Mets until at least late August, so clearing room for him is really not a big issue. Plus the Mets seem to like having a veteran catcher work with Harvey and Wheeler.


That.

D'Arnaud fractured his foot/ankle and the Mets have been taking it reaaaaal cautious with him. Can't blame them.

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2013 3:53 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
I don't know what the Pirates' brass are up to, but I can't think they'll allow Cole to throw more than 165 or 175 innings this season. It would be reckless to allow him to go beyond that.


Because maybe your whole premise is wrong?

They don't seem to put nearly as much belief in the innings idea as do you, and others. They, and many of the baseball scouts and analysts I've heard on the radio, have said that a strict innings count is almost useless without context. One simply cannot look across the baseball horizon and 150 innings good, 200, bad. There are variables at work here. Pitch count. Mechanics. Body type, etc. that are considered.

It seems apparent to me that NH, being the old Indian pitching scout he is, is taking the CC Sabathia approch to Cole. Which, if he turns out like Sabathia, will make ZM a happy Pirate fan.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Do we have staying power?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:24 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
I don't know what the Pirates' brass are up to, but I can't think they'll allow Cole to throw more than 165 or 175 innings this season. It would be reckless to allow him to go beyond that.


Because maybe your whole premise is wrong?

They don't seem to put nearly as much belief in the innings idea as do you, and others. They, and many of the baseball scouts and analysts I've heard on the radio, have said that a strict innings count is almost useless without context. One simply cannot look across the baseball horizon and 150 innings good, 200, bad. There are variables at work here. Pitch count. Mechanics. Body type, etc. that are considered.

It seems apparent to me that NH, being the old Indian pitching scout he is, is taking the CC Sabathia approch to Cole. Which, if he turns out like Sabathia, will make ZM a happy Pirate fan.

ZM


C'mon on, man. We both know Sabathia is more the exception than the rule. More importantly, Huntington has traditionally taken a cautious approach to the innings count of young pitchers. I have no doubt that Cole is on a pitches/innings count that the PBC is not making public. That's why I'll be watching closely how they handle him over the break and heading into September.


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