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 Post subject: Re: The Pitching Coach
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 8:41 pm 
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Forget all the Sabrmetrics to try and resolve the issue: read the quotes from the pitchers themselves about what they think of Searage. They make it clear that he has been instrumental.

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 Post subject: Re: The Pitching Coach
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 8:58 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
A higher BABIP, IMO, would probably decrease the innings pitched. Right now the strand rate is incredibly high and the BABIP low.

The BABIP is low for almost all Pirates pitchers due to (1) a very good defense, and (2) their use of shifts. The Pirates rank 6th in the majors thus far in UZR, 2nd in out-of-zone (OOZ) plays, i.e., plays that go beyond league expected range, and 3rd in range rating. All of these metrics show that the Pirates have a very, VERY good defense.

The defense and shifts are going to result in lower-than-expected BABIP. It is likely to regress a bit, but the increased K rate among Pirates pitchers (which will improve when AJ returns), along with the defense and shifts, will mitigate the regression.


Yeah the defense is exceptional. The thing is though, the defensive efficiency (which was cited in an ESPN power ranking as being very good) is 71.7. That's tops in baseball, and would translate to a .283 BABIP since it's the percentage of balls in play converted into outs.

I think Locke could settle in as a great BABIP guy.... Even .283 in and of itself is very, very good. I just think it's tough to expect a guy to maintain a BABIP so low and even tougher to expect it to be duplicated.

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 Post subject: Re: The Pitching Coach
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 9:20 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
I think Locke could settle in as a great BABIP guy.... Even .283 in and of itself is very, very good. I just think it's tough to expect a guy to maintain a BABIP so low and even tougher to expect it to be duplicated.

Pirates also have the highest ground ball rate in the majors - 51%. That means that balls that do wind up being hits are singles, as we saw this past weekend.

Pitching staffs that get a ton of ground balls, with an excellent defense behind them, and with a lot of very hard throwers in the pen, are going to do well.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pitching Coach
PostPosted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 10:11 pm 
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Oh undeniably, I think this front office has done a fantastic job of melding a groundball heavy pitching staff with a really strong defense and a team built for their park.

Like I said, you're talking about Locke regressing from an ace to a #3. Which, heading into this year is about what we'd want.

It's somewhat similar to Cutch last year, IMO. People were calling for a regression on the .370 BABIP not because he's an average player who was playing over his head, but because that's just an otherworldly number that's difficult to expect anybody to sustain. It regressed (sadly) but it wasn't Cutch's fault or anything. Just baseball.

Also similar to Pedro earlier this year in a thread we had. He was scuffling, people called for the BABIP to regress up towards the career BABIP, and he goes on a 12 game hitting streak up until yesterday that sees his average climb 30 points.

Even BABIP king Jeremy Hellickson, who is one of 9 pitchers since 1980 to post a BABIP at or under .225 in a season and the only guy since the turn of the century to go <.230, has put up ~.270 BABIP in all his other years (which is still excellent and would be awesome from Locke).

It's just a very large number to count on, IMO. That said, I really hope he does. Buster Posey wound up with an obscene BABIP last year, and obviously Hellickson shows that you can do it for a season. Lord knows if there's ever a year we need a guy like Locke to keep this up, it's this one to beat this cursed streak.

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