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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:21 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
So getting out the 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th is a tougher task than getting the 3-4-5 guys in the 8th? ...


The sabre's always trot this one out to make the "relievers are expendable" point.

The answer is yes, and it is wholly mental. You can call it superstition if you'd like, but players are superstitious and believe, BELIEVE that the closer is a tougher job. Just ask anyone who's done it and failed. How does a phenomenal setup guy like Melancon fail so abjectly as a closer, then?

The Red Sox tried the "anyone can get three outs in the ninth" approach a few years ago, to abject failure and have been looking for a closer ever since. Sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

You simply do not trade the guy that every player on the field is looking to, to finish the deal. You'll lose the team and your standing.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:44 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
How does a phenomenal setup guy like Melancon fail so abjectly as a closer, then?


There are just as many examples of the opposite, like when someone gets a chance to "close" with little experience after their predecessor was traded/injured and succeeds in that role. Like Grilli himself, of course. Also, Melancon saved 20 games for Houston two years ago. Tony Watson has had no problem stepping in and doing it this year, Juan Cruz and Evan Meek had no problems in previous years, etc. Conceding that Grilli has it tougher facing the bottom of the Anaheim order rather than Melancon facing Trout/Pujols/Trumbo because of what inning it is is pretty bizarre.

I still think it's insane that people think it's such an extreme view to label someone being Saber-minded because they take exception with getting three outs in one inning has some superficial mystical quality to it. I thought we had moved past that with the view of saves in 2013.

To say it's "mental" or that there is added pressure, etc. is fine but it doesn't trump the fact that it's still ultimately pitching an inning. If there were proof that teams were scoring more runs in the ninth inning than in the others and that it was statistically proved that teams often perform better in the ninth inning then it would have merit but it doesn't. Like I said, earlier ... go back and look at the winning percentages of previous Pirates teams all through history in the invented "save situation" scenarios and see what percentage of the time they won those games regardless of who's role it was to pitch the final three outs.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:09 pm 
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The Cards have some guy named edward mujica closing out mad games. Rex brothers is killing it in Colorado. Kenley jansen pitched super easy pressure free eighth innings because of mettle tested League. You don't pay for saves in fantasy baseball for this reason.

Now, i absolutely do not want to trade grilli and will certainly buy a chemistry/team argument and think it has validity. I will not, however, buy into the closer mystique. If grilli goes, the pirates will not collapse every time they have a late lead.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:58 pm 
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SCA: The Cardinals wound up with Mujica closing after Mitchell Boggs, thought of as a "future closer," imploded and gave away lead after lead. They really found Mujica in part simply through a process of elimination.

The Rockies drafted Brothers with the thought of him closing. He is a lefty who deals upper 90's. Nobody else has that ... well, apart from 2 teams in the NL Central. Him closing was not simply a roll of the dice - he closed in the minor leagues.

Brandon League has filthy stuff. 94-95 mph sinker, nasty slider. And he sucks at closing.

Andrew Bailey's stuff is sick. 95-96 mph, nasty breaking ball, good command. He cannot finish a game this year.

I am not saying that the role has some magic ju-ju associated with it. I am saying that teams have learned, through experience, that not every pitcher can do it, even pitchers with filthy stuff.

Further, these are not chess pieces or computer simulations. They are people. Dealing a pitcher who has struggled most of his career, who has overcome injury, who is getting guys out, who is doing his job, and who is an important part of this team would be a bad move.

I presume you work, SCA. If you had a co-worker who had overcome significant adversity, was hard working, who did his or her job, who was good company, who helped out others at the place of business, and who was a "leader," firing that employee to save a few bucks and replacing him or her with another employee who can do the job just as well has a negative impact.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:14 pm 
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Regarding the Pirates and the fact that they are not computer chips, Mark Melancon told DK:

“It's because we're all in it together,” Melancon said. “I've never been part of a team where every man hangs on every pitch the way we do.”

http://triblive.com/sports/dejankovacev ... z2Xj2kcGqp


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:52 pm 
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Well, that's why i said i buy the argument. But it would be more like we transferred this employee at the same salary because we thought we found someone who could take us to the next level and, i guess, also worked the first 7 hours of the day. Firing somebody to save a few bucks? That's not a good analogy.

I happen to believe most closers are just good at pitching. Closers, starters, middle relievers, all kinds of pitchers have the same issues.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:18 pm 
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Didn't even realize Braun was on DL.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:22 pm 
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I have been an advocate of trading our closer for years. The is no need to have one of your most valuable assets be a closer when you are winning only 60 games and he is pitching 2 innings a week.

Now that we are on pace to win 100 games and go to the playoffs there is no way that I trade the closer.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 7:33 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Brandon League has filthy stuff. 94-95 mph sinker, nasty slider. And he sucks at closing.


This.

Ask an M's fan about League or merely bring him up.

While they won't expend Bobby Ayala amounts of vitriol, it won't be a 'polite' conversation.

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