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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:19 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Huntington will not deal Grilli. He won't.


He would for the right hypothetical return that would improve the team more than having a very good reliever would, but that isn't realistic to likely happen, hence why it's just a mere hypothetical thrown out there. And that's really all that he's saying.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:20 am 
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But there isn't any sort of "closer mentality". Relievers are, by their nature, mercurial. I'm not going to think Melancon last year in Boston has anything to do with this season in Pittsburgh, because his performance in clutch situations has been superior to that of Grilli's. A bullpen arm is a bullpen arm is a bullpen arm. The difference between a great one and a decent one is less than half a win a season.

If I can get a great every day player or prospect for that, I'm doing it.

I'm not saying shop Grilli, I'm saying if a team comes to you offering you the moon take it.

It was meant as a compliment to this franchise's depth. Not an indictment on Grilli. I've said time and time again he's a fantastic bullpen arm....I just don't think the closer moniker makes him any more or less valuable than his numbers say he is. If a team is gullible enough to pay for save numbers and pitcher wins, I'm ripping them off every chance I get because I have a sh*t ton of depth and talent behind him. It'd be no different than dealing any other bullpen guy, just that Grilli's "position" inflates his value to certain franchises. If we're making threads about possibly trading Watson or Wilson, why not a guy who is marginally more valuable yet attracts a way higher price over the course of a season?

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Last edited by StarlingArcher on Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:35 am 
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There is more to a baseball team than mere numbers. Grilli's teammates would go ballistic if he were traded. This bullpen was put together with certain roles for certain players. Take Grilli out and that means guys move up a notch in high leverage situations. This bullpen has carried them most of the season and you want to mess with it.

This owner wants to win...now. These players and coaches want to win...now. The front office wants to win...now. The fans want to win...now. And you are willing to mess with the team(and yes chemistry does matter to an extent) to build more for the future. You always have to keep building for the future, but not in this situation. And, NO, NH would not trade Grilli in this situation...


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:37 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
So getting out the 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th is a tougher task than getting the 3-4-5 guys in the 8th?


Yep....

StarlingArcher wrote:
I don't think there's any extra value in a closer.


If there weren't, anyone could do it.....

StarlingArcher wrote:
Melancon has better numbers in more difficult situations


Better numbers? A bit better......More difficult situation? I think not.....

StarlingArcher wrote:
But there isn't any sort of "closer mentality".


Wanna bet?

TheShark wrote:
A mere bullpen arm should always be expendable for the right return


Mere bullpen arm??? Wow.....

To denigrate what these players contribute and the value of their contributions is well..........I cannot comment further....... :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:40 am 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
It was meant as a compliment to this franchise's depth. Not an indictment on Grilli.

I hear what you're saying and I understood that from the get-go.

In 2010, I agree with you 100%. In 2011, I agree with you maybe 80%. I really thought last year's team was good, so I would not have been on board.

Right now, this is a 1st place team, best record in MLB. We are not "adding pieces" for next year.

We are adding a bat via dealing minor league players for this year. Like every other team in MLB.

I don't think I know more than every other team in major league baseball (i.e., have a good team, don't deal your key players for young next-year guys).


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:41 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
There is more to a baseball team than mere numbers. Grilli's teammates would go ballistic if he were traded. This bullpen was put together with certain roles for certain players. Take Grilli out and that means guys move up a notch in high leverage situations. This bullpen has carried them most of the season and you want to mess with it.

This owner wants to win...now. These players and coaches want to win...now. The front office wants to win...now. The fans want to win...now. And you are willing to mess with the team(and yes chemistry does matter to an extent) to build more for the future. You always have to keep building for the future, but not in this situation. And, NO, NH would not trade Grilli in this situation...


So is Brandon Inge off the table, too? Because apparently he's a beloved figure in the clubhouse?

Are we not going to get rid of him in order to improve the team if the opportunity presents itself, even if he's also highly replaceable?

You can't pick and choose when chemistry matters and when it doesn't. If it's a real thing, you can't deal a huge clubhouse guy like Inge. If it doesn't exist, then a bullpen arm is not going to impact your season one way or the other. It's a bullpen arm.

Somebody posted the other day they'd trust Morris with the ball at pretty much any point. So okay, put Melancon in the closer's role, Morris 8th inning, and then Black/Welker in the Morris role of pitching whenever. It's still a reliable bullpen and you got a kickass player in return.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:43 am 
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If it ain't broke, don't fix it..... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:44 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
If it ain't broke, don't fix it..... 8-) 8-) 8-)


I'm with you. Said earlier today I'd stand pat w/r/t RF. I don't think there's any move they can make that would make them appreciably better or worse this season at all.

Don't think they should pursue a thing, IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:46 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
So getting out the 6-7-8 hitters in the 9th is a tougher task than getting the 3-4-5 guys in the 8th?


Yep....


Yikes.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:48 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
If it ain't broke, don't fix it..... 8-) 8-) 8-)

Yep.

I offer the following not as a criticism of other posters, who have opinions based upon data they believe supports their views. But first, I agree 100% with Parrot. How about if we ask Cutch what he thinks about trading the best relief pitcher in 2013 in the midst of a great season for the franchise?

Second, I suspect that the "trade 'x' guy for a contributor next year" is the result of the 20 years of losing. That mindset is now sort of ingrained.

I remember great Pirates teams - clubs that went to the playoffs, battered opponents, won World Series titles.

Those clubs did not deal their best relief pitcher in July in the midst of a great season.

Shit on a stick, if the 1992 Buccos had a Jason Grilli, Francisco Cabrera still has the anonymity he greatly deserves.


Last edited by Bucfan on Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:49 am 
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TheShark wrote:
Yikes.


They are all Major League hitters....it's the inning, not the lineup.....there is more on the line in the 9th....ask anyone who has played.... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:53 am 
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WOW ! just wake up and what do i see ? AN IMPRESSIVE WIN !

KEEPS ROLLIN ' BUCS !


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:56 am 
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Have a croissant for me Fanch! 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 1:00 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
there is more on the line in the 9th....


No there isn't. An inning is an inning regardless of what number it is. Pitchers pitch to keep runs off of the board and hitters hit to put runs on the board regardless of the inning or leverage level. You're essentially saying that hitters are holding back their full potential or efforts during eight innings of a game. If that's the case (which it isn't), then it's the fault of the players for not putting in the effort or conserving their energy for a mere three outs. Go back and look at the winning percentages of previous Pirates teams all through history in the invented "save situation" scenarios and see what percentage of the time they won those games regardless of who's role it was to pitch the final three outs.


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 1:07 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
Az Bucco fan wrote:
If it ain't broke, don't fix it..... 8-) 8-) 8-)

Yep.

I offer the following not as a criticism of other posters, who have opinions based upon data they believe supports their views. But first, I agree 100% with Parrot. How about if we ask Cutch what he thinks about trading the best relief pitcher in 2013 in the midst of a great season for the franchise?

Second, I suspect that the "trade 'x' guy for a contributor next year" is the result of the 20 years of losing. That mindset is now sort of ingrained.

I remember great Pirates teams - clubs that went to the playoffs, battered opponents, won World Series titles.

Those clubs did not deal their best relief pitcher in July in the midst of a great season.

Shit on a stick, if the 1992 Buccos had a Jason Grilli, Francisco Cabrera still has the anonymity he greatly deserves.


That's a very rational point to take, especially at the end, but in fairness, none of those teams had the ability to calculate leverage, value added appearances, or win probability in a given instance like teams do now. And, there are very few teams who have the depth that the Pirates do in the bullpen. Jon Heyman tweeted last month that 20 scouts were in Indy looking at Welker and Black....that's a huge contingent.

In a one run game, if you bring a pitcher in with runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out, and the #4 man up in the 7th inning, that's a far more difficult situation than having a clean slate in the 9th, a 2 run lead and the #7 guy leading off. Yet, the 9th inning guy gets a "save", which people attribute to having value and the 7th inning guy gets nothing, despite the 7th inning guy being in a significantly tougher situation to get 3 outs from.

People see "oh, he succeeded in the 9th" and think it's incredibly impressive, but there's no real pressure there relative to other situations. And, yes, I closed. All it came down to was a simple "this guy bats X, that means there's a (1-X) chance he gets out even if he hits the ball" mentality and you're golden.

So yes, when Mark Melancon has the most value added of any reliever in baseball based on the numbers he's put up relative to the situations he's been put in, I have no doubt that he can handle coming in and pitching 3 outs while preserving the lead with no runners on.

It would be unorthodox, and I wouldn't expect them to do it, but I'd be entirely comfortable and supportive of this team doing it if you get a Castellanos type in return from a team desperate for a "closer" and willing to overpay.

If a guy like Watson and Wilson are proposed as possibilities, Grilli should be as well. Similar value, but Grilli can bring you more by duping a rival GM.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 1:15 am 
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Also, I can't reiterate enough that I truly love this team.

I didn't mean to start a big debate with the comment. It was more speaking to this franchise's depth with relievers than any sort of "Grilli sucks" thing.

Grilli is a fantastic reliever. Even when you take out the save statistic. I would never deal him for less than his non-save statistics suggest, nor do I think they should actively shop him.

I just think the bullpen is SUCH a position of strength from the majors to the minors, and other teams have so many holes, that if a team overpays they should do it.

Was entirely meant to comment on the vitality of the bullpen arms in the system since trade talk has been popular and I think Grilli maximizes the potential return based on his "role".

Much like with Giancarlo Stanton, I'm not going to be mad if they don't actively shop him...they shouldn't.

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:21 am 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Have a croissant for me Fanch! 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-)



did it AZ ! :P


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:27 am 
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If the A's continue their run, after the Pirates beat them in a few weeks, they should present to them a big thank you card. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 2:29 am 
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Boire un Pastis pour moi, , Fanch. 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: Pirates 48-30 vs brewers 32-45
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 5:00 am 
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I'd pick up Brandon League, a guy who has shown that he can close. He has the mentality, which Grilli didn't last year but has now.

Wouldn't there be more corresponding pressure on the hitters in the 9th, balancing it out? I don't want to ask closers if they think closers are extra important. Nor do i want to ask cutch what he thinks about a trade. Grilli himself wanted to sell the farm last year and acted like not doing so was the reason they were awful for two months. I don't want to trade grilli but if some team blew me away because they wanted that elusive mentality I'd listen to them.

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