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 Post subject: Remedial Math
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:53 am 
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Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 2:11 pm
Posts: 4988
Location: 120 miles west of Iowa City
Premise #1: It will take 90 wins to earn a playoff spot.
Premise #2: It will take 88 wins to earn a playoff spot.

To get to #1, the Pirates and Cardinals have to play .500 ball (42-42) for the rest of the season. To get to #2, the Pirates and Cardinals only have to go 40-44 for the remainder of the season.

Here's the rest of the NL:

To get to 90, here are the two teams that don't have to increase their current pace of wins v. losses:
Reds 45-38
Braves 45-38

Here are the balance of teams that have to increase their current pace of wins to get to 90:
D'Backs: 48-36
Nationals: 51-33
Padres: 51-32
Rockies: 51-31
Giants: 52-32
Phillies: 52-30
Dodgers: 54-30
Cubs: 57-28
Mets: 58-29
Brewers: 58-27
Marlins: 63-22

To get to 88, there are still only two that don't have to increase their current pace of wins v. losses:
Reds 43-40
Braves 43-40

Here are the balance of teams that have to increase their current pace of wins to get to 88:
D'Backs: 46-38 (they are close to this pace right now)
Nationals: 49-35
Padres: 49-34
Rockies: 49-33
Giants: 50-34
Phillies: 50-32
Dodgers: 52-32
Cubs: 55-30
Mets: 56-31
Brewers: 56-29
Marlins: 61-24

As of this particular moment in time, I'm thinking that the Nationals will be the focus of a fair amount of my "scoreboard watching." The talent is there to make a run and they likely have a lot of games left against the Marlins and Mets.

Further evidence that "making hay" against the Brewers is mandatory.

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No. 9
Obsessive proponent of situational bunting and 2 strike hitting approaches, reflexively pro-catchers calling good games and tasteless proponent of the value of a RBI.


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